Guam Primary Closes

And we await the returns. A 2.5 to 1.5 pledged delegate advantage would be a great goal for either campaign.

Will there be a victory speech?

Even more critical might be the two superdelegates being announced today as well from Guam.

More, when results come in.

Guam Primary Contest Starts Tonight

8400 miles and 20 time zones West from Washington, DC, the tiny United States Territory of Guam (est. pop. 180,000) has its moment in the political sun and has begun voting in the Democratic Primary.

The contest officially began today at 8 PM EST and will conclude at 6 AM EST on Saturday, May 3rd.

As a quick recap, four pledged delegates are at stake from this contest. Eight delegates will be awarded but each only has a 1/2 vote at the National Convention.

In Guam superdelegate news, Demconwatch is reporting that there are three vacancies in the five superdelegate slots allotted to Guam. Two of those vacancies will be filled today when the Chair and Vice-Chair (who are given superdelegate status) are selected.

Demconwatch is also reporting that there are three slates running for these two spots--one pro-Obama, one pro-Clinton, and one-Uncommitted. The Uncommitted slate includes current Chair Antonio Charfauros and Mary Ann Cabrera.

This last slate, which is predicted to be selected becuase of its uncommitted status and its incumbency, has declared that it will leverage its undeclared status to see what the candidates will do for Guam.

As a side note, this development gives a bit more credence to my theory that smaller states/territories will try to leverage an "undeclared" status for its add-ons and recently named superdelegates to gain attention and relevancy for the state/territory.

The Three Separate, Yet Intertwined, Races for Delegates

A while ago I made the decision to track this Democratic Primary as three distinct races, eschewing the "Pledged Delegate" and "Superdelegate" distinctions that the mainstream media created.

And now more than ever I think it is important to put forth the reasons for this again, as one of the three races will now become more "active" in the coming weeks.

The 4,048 total delegates available in this race (as a result of the Florida/Michigan debacle) can be broken down into three categories:

• 3253 are Pledged Delegates: Pledged Delegates are won as a direct result of the 55 contests held in each state, DC, territories and Democrats Abroad. These 3253 pledged delegates are bound through the first vote in the Democratic National Convention, and represent an 80.4% share of the total delegates.

• 76 are Add-On Delegates: Add-on Delegates are awarded to each state, primarily to balance out the different demographics of their delegate slate to be "diverse". Each state has its own system of handling this process, but in the end, it seems like most states have the State Party Chair nominate people for the spot and then the state delegates or state committee picks them, based on different qualifications. This year these add-ons may be crucial to one candidate's victory. These Add-On Delegates represent a 1.9% share of the total delegates.

• 719 are Superdelegates: These Superdelegates, in my mind, are the current batch of 795 superdelegates (according to the mainstream media) minus the 76 add-on delegates. These superdelegates comprise members of Congress, Govenors, Party Loyalists and Distinguished Party Leaders in the Democratic Party. These Superdelegates represent a 17.8% share of the total delegates.

Each of these categories should be put in its own context and be considered a separate contest, whose results will be influential in the overall contest of Total Delegates. The reason is simple: each has their own schedule to follow.

Pledged Delegates are allocated based on a fixed schedule set by the DNC. This schedule has created three elements of interest:

(1) That Florida and Michigan tried to jump ahead of the pack cost them all of their delegates--pledged, add-on and super; and

(2) Over 56% of the pledged delegates in the primary contest was decided by the Original Super Tuesday, February 5th, front-loading the schedule.

(3) Given the rules of the party, only huge victories in small states, large victories in medium states, and healthy victories in large states can shift bunches of these delegates one way or the other. As a result, the likelihood of any candidate earning more than 55% of these pledged delegates in the last nine contests is small. The lead for Obama in Pledged Delegates is insurmountable.

Add-On Delegates are also allocated on a fixed schedule, but that schedule is determined by when each state has its state convention, where the final delegation to the national committee is selected and produced. As a result, these add-on delegates are chosen in each state well after that state went to the ballot box, creating a second schedule that is different from the Pledged Delegate Schedule.

Of the 76 Add-On Delegates, 59 are chosen in the months of May and June as follows (a more detailed schedule can be found here):

Period of Time: # of Add-on Delegates Chosen

May 1 - May 7: 11

May 8 - May 14: 5

May 15- May 21: 8

May 22 - May 28: 5

May 29 - June 4: 2

June 5 - June 11: 11

June 12 - June 18: 9

June 19 - June 25: 8

As you can see, 28 of the add-ons will be chosen after the last primary is held, which will dramatically alter their importance if the superdelegates break one way or the other. The 31 chosen from now until then (including New York's 4 today) will still play a role, most likely.

Super Delegates are not allocated on any schedule. These delegates are free to endorse whomever they want, whenever they want, all the way up to the Convention ballot. As we saw today, a super delegate can endorse one candidate and then switch to another. This type of delegate has a host of issues to consider, including how their district/state voted, how vulnerable they are to picking the loser, how vulnerable they are in their own district by alienating half their base, when is the right time to come out, etc. If there is a schedule involved, it's a personal one or one designed to minimize political damage or maximize political gain.

As you can see, treating each type of delegate the same is not helpful in understanding this race. When Clinton picks up four new Add-On Delegates from New York today, it does not indicate any new "momentum"; neither will it for Obama when he picks up three Add-On Delegates from New York. This analysis won't prevent "spinning" these results as some measuring stick for how the public feels about the race, however.

Understanding each race separately allows you to make three key distinctions:

(1) Of the 3253 Pledged Delegates, only 408 (12.5%), or 1/8 th of the total pledged delegates, remain. After May 6th, only 217 (6.7%), or 1/15th, will remain. The impact of the pledged delegates from here on out only serve to fill out the rest of the scorecard, most likely in a tie, preserving Obama's 154 Pledged Delegate lead.

(2) Of the 76 Add-On Delegates, only 16 have made their choices known, so the resulting 60 unnamed or undeclared Add-On Delegates will become of the same significance as the primaries of Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia and Guam. These delegates grow in importance over time. Since Obama has won so many more states than Clinton and by such a larger margin of victory, it is likely that Obama will net between 8 and 16 total delegates from this group.

(3) Of the 719 Super Delegates, 505 have made their choices. The remaining 214 Super Delegates will decide this race in the end, and the more their votes become scrutinized, the more the internal mechanisms governing their choices become strained.

Obama's projected lead in Pledged and Add-On Delegates requires him to win far fewer Super Delegates to win the nomination than it requires Senator Clinton.

One Projection (Charitable to Clinton):

Assuming that Clinton and Obama split the last 64 Add-On Delegates (including New York) and the last 408 Pledged Delegates, the final totals for each of them in that category will be:

OBAMA: 1975

CLINTON: 1844

With only 214 Super Delegates remaining to make a decision,

Obama would need 50 to get to 2025 (23.4% of the remainder) and

Clinton would need 181 (84.6%) to reach 2025.

Actual Projections:

The projections for the Add-On Delegates and Pledged Delegates from here on out, however, do not indicate a pure split. Instead, Obama is projected to pick up 209 of the Pledged Delegates and 40 of the Add-On Delegates (199 and 24 for Clinton, respectively), which would make their totals:

OBAMA: 1988

CLINTON: 1831

Then in this scenario, with only 214 Super Delegates remaining to make a decision,

Obama would need 37 to get to 2025 (17.3% of the remainder) and

Clinton would need 194 (90.7%) to reach 2025.

As a result of this disparity, Clinton needs to pick up 21 super delegates for every 4 that Obama picks up (not counting add-ons, of course), to keep pace.

To move ahead of pace, Clinton needs to pick up 6 super delegates for every 1 that Obama picks up.

It is better for Clinton to have zero movement among the super delegates at this point than to be matching Obama super delegate for superdelegate (and Obama actually has outgained her in super delegates 12-5 since Pennsylvania, with Clinton's 5 other total delegates being add-on delegates).

The Clinton Matrix

THE CLINTON MATRIX

I am unveiling for the first time my Clinton Matrix, which charts how she'll need to perform in the remaining key indicators of pledged delegates, add-on delegates and superdelegates.

By color-coding the chart I hope to provide you a visual of all the possibilities involved for Clinton to secure the 2025 delegates and to win the nomination.

This matrix is from the perspective of Senator Clinton's campaign.

The categories of pledged delegates and add-on delegates are pretty fixed at this point, in that they are less likely to swing wildly one way or the other given the proportional allocation rule for pledged delegates and the state-party-controlled characteristics of the add-on delegates.

The real wildcard left is the superdelegate category, which as I've explained earlier consists of the unpledged elected officeholders, distinguished party leaders and democratic party loyalists rewarded with a superdelegate vote. I separated add-on delegates from this category simply because those delegates are governed under much different rules, and are thus going to follow a different form of logic in their allocation.

The Two Axes: Pledged and Add-On Delegates

I set the range for the Pledged and Add-On Delegate categories from 30% -- 70% for each candidate, which covers the range for each handily. In reality, the most a candidate can hope for from each of these categories is 60%, and the least is 40%.

Consequently, in the matrix above I have italicized and reduced the font size for the squares that are not likely to happen, and put in bold the squares that were within this 60/40 range for each category, for each candidate, with the 50% pledged delegate + 50% add-on delegate square centered and with the percentage shown.

The Golden Center Square

This center square, achieved if Clinton wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates and 50% of the remaining add-on delegates, leaves a total of 194 superdelegates (out of 235) that Senator Clinton has to have in order to reach 2,025 and the nomination.

194 of 235 superdelegates represents an 82.5% share of the remaining superdelegates in the race.

Changes in the Future

As Senator Clinton outperforms the 50% rating for each of the two axes, her total of superdelegates needed decreases and her campaign moves to a square north and/or west of the center square.

As Senator Clinton underperforms the 50% rating for each of the two axes, her total of superdelgates needed increases and her campaign moves to a square south and/or east of the center square.

Keep in mind that this superdelegate matrix contemplates a total of 234 superdelegates, so while the raw total of superdelegates she will need stays the same within the grid, the percentage of total remaining superdelegates will become larger or smaller depending upon which candidate is receiving superdelegates and in what ratio. This may alter the shading of the square, which represents the range of the percent of the total remaining superdelegates Senator Clinton needs to reach 2,025.

Re-examining Iowa

In a previous post I gave an update that Obama had actually lost a pledged delegate in Iowa when Edwards gained viability (15%) in a district that forced Obama to cede a pledged delegate to Edwards. The understanding was that Senator Clinton's campaign "lent" Mr. Edwards' camp enough delegates to force this split and turn a 3-1 advantage for Senator Obama in one district into a 3-2-1 result for Obama/Clinton/Edwards respectively.


There is some confusion as to whether or not Obama lost a delegate or not, in the overall scheme of things. Some reports said that the net result of the day was Obama -1 and Edwards +1.

However, this article attempts to explain the intricate system of alloting delegates that Iowa uses, and actually makes the case that Obama picked up a delegate.


So, who's right?



I will admit that I have been confused by the way that Iowa selects its delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The total number of delegates allocated through the District Convention this past weekend was 29.



Iowa is sending 57 Total Delegates to the National Convention, with the breakdown as follows:

45 Pledged Delegates:

--29 District Delegates

--10 At-Large Delegates

--06 Pledged PLEOS

12 Superdelegate/Add-on Delegates:

--11 Unpledged PLEOS (otherwise known as superdelegates)

--01 Unpledged Add-on Delegate



Here's what happened since Election Night on January 3rd, 2008.



January 3rd, 2008



45 Delegates were up for grabs, in one of three categories:



District Delegates (29)

At-Large Delegates (6)

Pledged PLEOs (10)



The first category, District Delegates, is allocated based on the viability formula for each Congressional District in the state. On June 3rd, this breakdown came down as follows:



CANDIDATE: (CD1) / (CD2) / (CD3) / (CD4) / (CD5)



Obama: (2)/(3)/(2)/(2)/(1)

Edwards: (2)/(2)/(2)/(2)/(1)

Clinton: (2)/(2)/(2)/(2)/(2)



So, for the first 29 delegates, the breakdown was Obama 10, Clinton 10, Edwards 9.



The second category, At-Large Delegates, are allocated to each candidate based on the total statewide percentage allocation of caucus votes. All three candidates split the vote in essentially a three-way tie, so each candidate picked up 2 delegates each from the At-Large Delegate category.



So, for the first 35 delegates, the breakdown was Obama 12, Clinton 12, Edwards 11.



The third category, Pledged PLEOS, are allocated in the same manner as the At-Large Delegates--based on allocation of the caucus vote. With a number of delegates (10) that leaves a remainder after dividing by three, the extra delegate to be allocated naturally went to Obama who collected the most number of votes that night. Obama picked up 4 delegates while Clinton and Edwards picked up 3 apiece.



So, for the 45 pledged delegates allocated on January 3rd, the breakdown was Obama 16, Clinton 15, Edwards 14.





March 15, 2008



Heading into the County Caucus Conventions, the allocation was Obama 16, Clinton 15 and Edwards 14 for national delegates. However, this event allowed for the Edwards supporters to defect to Obama or Clinton if they so chose because of Edwards no longer being in the race.



With defections in each of the Congressional Districts, the delegate allocation changed as each candidate rose above or sunk below certain viability thresholds that determined whether each candidate gained or lost delegates.



After January 3rd, the split was Obama 10, Clinton 10 and Edwards 9 based on Congressional Districts alone.



Congressional District 1 went from O-2, C-2, E-2 to O-4, C-2, E-0. Obama +2, Edwards -2

Congressional District 2 went from O-3, C-2, E-2 to O-4, C-2, E-1. Obama +1, Edwards -1

Congressional District 3 went from O-2, C-2, E-2 to O-3, C-2, E-1. Obama +1, Edwards -1

Congressional District 4 went from O-2, C-2, E-2 to O-4, C-2, E-0. Obama +2, Edwards -2

Congressional District 5 went from O-1, C-2, E-1 to O-2, C-1, E-1. Obama +1, Clinton -1



As a result of this day's events, Obama gained 7 delegates, Edwards lost 6 and Clinton lost 1, to make the District allocation Obama 17, Clinton 9, Edwards 3.



These events affected the allocation of Pledged At-Large delegates and Pledged PLEOS, also, given the shift in delegate totals.



Pledged At-Large Delegates were split 2-2-2 among the three candidates in January. Now there were split O-3, C-2, E-1. Obama +1, Edwards -1



Pledged PLEOS were also split, O-4, C-3, E-3. Now, they were split O-5, C-3, E-2. Obama +1, Edwards -1.



After all was said and done, Obama netted +9 delegates, Clinton -1 and Edwards -8

District Delegates: Obama 17, Clinton 9, Edwards 3.
Total Pledged Delegates: Obama 25, Clinton 14, Edwards 6.

April 26, 2008

At the Congressional District Convention, the delegates for the National Convention are actually selected for the first time, allowing for a bit of redistribution of the allocation of delegates for each Congressional District from what was seen in the prior two events.

The At-Large delegates and Pledged PLEO delegates were not up for change at this event.

Coming into this event, Obama had 17 District delegates, Clinton had 9 District delegates and Edwards had 3 District delegates. However, Edwards had two opportunities to regain viability in two of the five Congressional Districts, which would strip a delegate from the prior leader in that District.

In Congressional District 1, Edwards regained viability and took a delegate from Obama, shifting the delegate balance from O-4, C-2, E-0 to O-3, C-2, E-1. Obama -1, Edwards +1

In Congressional District 2, there was no change in delegates. O-4, C-2, E-1.

In Congressional District 3, there was no change in delegates. O-3, C-2, E-1.

In Congressional District 4, Edwards was not able to gain viability, which would have taken back a delegate from Obama. Result: O-4, C-2, E-0

In Congressional District 5, no shift in delegates was made. If Edwards, who barely had viability here, had lost enough voters, then Clinton would have picked up the extra delegate and have created a 2-2 tie with Obama. However, this district remained O-2, C-1, E-1.

OVERALL, the change from the County Convention to the final result of the District Conventions was Obama -1, Edwards +1.

For the 29 District Delegates to the National Convention, Obama will carry 16 delegates, Clinton 9 and Edwards 4.

Adding the Pledged PLEOS and Pledged At-Large delegates, the current count for Pledged Delegates to the National Convention for each candidate are:

OBAMA: 24

CLINTON: 14

EDWARDS: 7

CONVENTION POLITICS:

Here's where the politics came into play. There were three delegates at play over this weekend that could have shifted and altered the count for each candidate. By accounts of participants at the Convention, these strategies emerged:

In CD 1, Edwards needed just a handful of votes to move into viability in this district. Since this new viability would take one of Obama's 4 delegates, it behooved Clinton to lend some of her votes to Edwards to decrease Obama's haul by one and shift that delegate to Edwards, with no negative effect on her own delegates. This strategy paid off and Edwards took an Obama delegate. O-3, C-2, E-1

In CD 4, Clinton's voters tried to employ the same strategy as in CD 1, but were unsuccessful in negotiating an acceptable agreement with the Edwards' supporters to give viability to Edwards. Some have previously reported that this district was O-3, C-2, and 1 undecided prior, so Obama going to 4 is considered a pickup. For those that had seen this district as O-4, C-2, E-0 before the weekend, this district had no change. Semantics, really.

In CD5, Edwards was again near the viability threshold, this time barely above it. With only four delegates, the breakdown was O-2, C-1, E-1 heading into this last weekend. If Edwards lost viability, then Clinton would have picked up the delegate. I do not know if the Edwards supporters stayed put or if Obama supporters had to augment their ranks to maintain viability.

Of these three delegates up for grab, the optimal situation for Obama was O-10, C-5, E-1, with an Obama net of +5.

The optimal situation for Clinton was O-8, C-6, E-2, with an Obama net of +2.

The final situation for these three CDs? O-9, C-5, E-2, with an Obama net of +4. It seems that Obama was able to make the best of this situation while Clinton was able to keep on delegate away from Obama at this time.

Please feel free to send me a note if you think this article needs more clarification.

Monday, April 28, 2008: Update on Total Delegate Status

Recall that I have previously presented the Total Delegate Status in three separate parts, given each part's unique nature:

-Pledged Delegates
-Superdelegates
-Add-on Delegates

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Using the GreenPapers website, as Demconwatch does, the pledged delegate count is as follows:

Magic Number (Pledged Delegate Majority): 1627

Obama: 1490 *Needs 137 for Pledged Delegate majority (33.6% of available)*
Clinton: 1336 *Needs 291 for Pledged Delegate majority (71.3% of available)*

Edwards: 19

Available: 408

OBAMA LEADS BY 132 PLEDGED DELEGATES


SUPERDELEGATES

Demconwatch has entrusted its Superdelegate count to GreenPapers, as ascertaining the accurate number of Superdelegates for each candidate can be tricky at times, as people back out of commitments, some superdelegates lose office, etc.

Excluding add-on delegates, there are 719 Superdelegates (795 - 76 add-ons). A majority of Superdelegates is 360.

According to TheGreenPapers.com, the Superdelegate count (excluding add-ons) stands as follows:

Obama: 227 *Needs 133 for Superdelegate majority (55.6% of available)*
Clinton: 253 *Needs 107 for Superdelegate majority (44.8% of available)*

Available: 239

CLINTON LEADS BY 26 SUPERDELEGATES


ADD-ON DELEGATES

There are 76 add-on delegates that are named throughout the primary season by each state in accordance to their prescribed rules. Chosen at a state-level convention or gathering, the mode of choice can be from a state delegate level vote, or appointed by a state chair, or other mechanism.

A majority of add-on delegates is 39.

Obama: 8 *Needs 31 for Add-on delegate majority (48.4% of available)*
Clinton: 4 *Needs 35 for Add-on delegate majority (54.7% of available)*

Available: 64

OBAMA LEADS BY 4 ADD-ON DELEGATES


TOTAL DELEGATES

4,048 Total Delegates are at stake in the primary. A majority of 2,025 is needed to gain the Democratic Nomination.

OBAMA: 1490 + 227 + 8 = 1725 (42.6% of Total Delegates)

CLINTON: 1336 + 253 + 4 = 1593 (39.4% of Total Delegates)

EDWARDS: 19 (0.5% of Total Delegates)

AVAILABLE: 408 + 239 + 64 = 711 (17.6% of Total Delegates)


To reach the Magic Number of 2025 Total Delegates to secure the nomination,

OBAMA needs 300 more Total Delegates (42.2% of Available Total Delegates)
CLINTON needs 432 more Total Delegates (60.8% of Available Total Delegates)


Assuming a likely split of pledged delegates remaining, with Obama gaining 209 and Clinton gaining 199 as previously projected,

OBAMA would have 1934 Total Delegates and need 91 of the remaining 303 super/add-on delegates (30%) more to win the nomination.

CLINTON would have 1792 Total Delegates and need 232 of the remaining 303 super/add-on delegates (76.6%) more to win the nomination.


The more the add-on delegate split deviates from each candidates percent of super/add-on delegates needed to win the nomination, the more pressure it puts on the candidate to secure the superdelegate portion of the remaining total delegates.

Of the remaining 303 super/add-on delegates in the scenario envisioned above,
64 (21.1%) of those would be add-on delegates and
239 (78.9%) would be superdelegates.



IMPORTANT SCENARIOS TO CONSIDER

Let's examine the range of possibilities. The actual results of the remaining add-on delegate declarations will most likely fall somewhere in the range of 62.5% for Obama and 62.5% for Clinton, to be charitable to Senator Clinton given the realities of the add-on selection process.

N.B. Percentages will not equal 100% in the cases where the Edwards' Delegates come into play.


(1) Senator Obama Wins 40 (62.5%) of the Remaining 64 Add-On Delegates:

Obama wins 40 of the 64 add-on delegates remaining, and Clinton wins 24.

Obama would then lead Clinton by a count of 1974 to 1816.

Obama would then need 51 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (21.3%)

Clinton would then need 209 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (87.4%)



(2) Senators Clinton and Obama split the remaining 64 add-on delegates, 32-32:

Clinton wins 32 add-on delegates, and Obama wins 32 as well.

Obama would then lead Clinton by a count of 1966 to 1824.

Obama would then need 59 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (24.7%).

Clinton would then need 201 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (84.1%).



(3) Senator Clinton Wins 40 (62.5%) of the Remaining 64 Add-On Delegates:

Clinton wins 40 add-on delegates, and Obama wins 24 add-on delegates.

Obama would then lead Clinton by a count of 1958 to 1832.

Obama would then need 67 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (28.0%).

Clinton would then need 193 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (80.8%)


RESULTS:

These three add-on delegate scenarios run the gamut of possibilities in the add-on delegate selection process, with a high level of certainty. The pledged delegate process also is constrained by the landscape of the final nine contests, with Obama favored to win 10 more delegates than Clinton by most counts. Therefore, the volatility exists mainly with uncommitted superdelegates.

Senator Obama will need somewhere between

21.3% (best case--51) and 28.0% (worst case--67)

of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to win the nomination

Senator Clinton will need somewhere between

80.8% (best case--193) and 87.4% (worst case--209)

of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to win the nomination.

ADDENDUM:

There has been talk about how it is that Superdelegates will decide the nomination and move en masse to one candidate or the other to make this happen.

We also need to study the composition of the Superdelegate class to understand who they are and what can be expected of them.

According to Demconwatch, of the remaining 238 uncommitted superdelegates, the breakdown is as such:

Governors 7 ( 2.9%)
Senators 18 ( 7.6%)
Congress 70 (29.4%)
Distinguished Party Leaders 6 ( 2.5%)
DNC Loyalists 137 (57.6%)

TOTAL: 238

This breakdown is important because the superdelegates most likely to move en masse at the request of the Party Leaders are actually the elected officeholders, who will want to use an established metric as justification for their choice to avoid backlash within their own district by supporters of the losing candidate.

That metric appears to be the pledged delegate vote count, although Senator Clinton is pushing a new (and logically inconsistent, but more to come on that later) version of a popular vote count.

95 of the remaining 238 (39.9%) uncommitted superdelegates are elected officeholders. Obama will only need between 51 and 67 superdelegates to move his way to win the nomination. That can be effected entirely through Congressmembers alone.

Currently Obama leads Clinton in committed superdelegates from this rank of elected officeholder by a count of 106 to 100.

Clinton, on the other hand, leads Obama in committed superdelegates from the rank of DNC loyalists and Distinguished Party Leaders by a count of 153 to 121.

In fact, Clinton's lead of 26 superdelegates comes primarily through her strength in non-elected officeholders who serve as superdelegates.


In contrast to Obama, Clinton will need 193 and 209 superdelegates to break her way to win the nomination.

Even if Clinton were to secure every single DNC/Distinguished Party Leader endorsement remaining, she would still need between 50 and 66 elected officeholders to break her way, which would mean between 52.6% and 69.5% of those elected officeholders.

For such a large number of those elected officeholders to accept a new metric that is not based on pledged delegates seems unlikely, if not impossible, given the massive political unrest in each elected officeholder's jurisdiction as a result of such action. At least, that's my take. If you disagree, put a post up and let me hear you.

Remember, as more and more superdelegates trickle in with their choices, these odds will continue to mount for Senator Clinton unless she starts winning 4 out of every 5 superdelegate decisions that are made.

However, as of her epic Pennsylvania victory, she has been outgained by Obama 4-2 in superdelegate declarations.

This analysis shows why Clinton's best course of action is to find a way to get Michigan and Florida seated at her best benefit, so that these daunting numbers soften for her and give her enough breathing room to operate and find a path to the nomination. Without both of those states being seated to her satisfaction, the challenge appears to great to overcome.

More on the May 3rd Guam contest

By most accounts, Guam has never been more than even a ceremonial blip on the path toward nomination for the Democratic Party, given its late position on the nomination calendar and its seemingly inconsequential number of pledged delegates (four). In fact, there are more superdelegates at play than there are pledged delegates, and by some accounts, Clinton seems destined to finish the nomination race with a sizable lead in superdelegates from Guam.

When using different "delegate predictor" features on different sites, such as Slate's, it appears that in order for a candidate to break the likely 2-2 tie, that candidate would have to capture over 62.5% of the votes to produce a 3-1 lead, and over 85% of the vote to sweep 4-0 by denying the opponent the 15% viability threshold.

What these prior analyses don't show, and what recent articles such as this one show, is that these four delegates are really representative of eight delegates, each with a half-vote. This scenario plays out much like the Democrats Abroad primary, where each delegate had a half-vote as well.

Given this half-vote scenario, it is now much easier for a candidate to gain a full delegate from this contest by winning it 2.5 to 1.5.

One version of how this contest will play out is as follows, although this account appears to be outdated or inaccurate regarding the pledged delegates:

--Six delegates are chosen as pledged delegates, each with a half-vote.
--One unpledged delegate, a Democratic Member of Congress, will have one vote.
--Four unpledged Democratic National Committee members will have four votes as Superdelegates.

Thus, Guam will have a total of 11 delegates voting as 8 delegates:
3 pledged delegate votes
1 unpledged delegate vote
4 superdelegate votes

This information seems conflicting with what a Daily Kos blogger reports as how the Obama Campaign sees this contest, as reported here.

What I consider the authority on this matter, however, is found here on TheGreenPapers. This source confirms for me how this process works.

Secret ballot like at a primary, and then the delegates are allocated like in a caucus where 15% viability is needed to gain delegates.

As I find out more information, I'll update this post.

HERE IS THE KEY:

If it is really 8 delegates with a half-vote each, then winning the threshold to create a 2.5 to 1.5 victory will be vitally important and thus a victory in terms of pledged delegates. Otherwise, a 2-2 split will be as previously expected.

Meet the Superdelegates

G) The Superdelegates

Of the 4,049 total delegates available to the candidates, 796 (19.7%) of these delegates are superdelegates. Superdelegates are not bound by the results of any specific contest; rather, these superdelegates are able to endorse any candidate they want at any time and to change their mind at any time, even up until the convention.

These superdelegates are largely from a group of people selected on the basis of their holding elected office or on the basis of their position with or loyalty to the DNC.

So far Senator Clinton outpaces Senator Obama in this category of declared superdelegates by approximately 23. By most counts Senator Clinton has 256 superdelegates and Senator Obama has 233.

Accurate counts are not always easy to obtain given the informality by which superdelegates sometimes make their decisions known, or by a change of heart that may not be yet recorded, or by assumptions made by different new sources about who supports whom.

For Senator Clinton to have any credible chance of winning the nomination by reaching 2,025 total delegates, she will need to rely heavily on the superdelegates to align themselves with her.

According to projections based on the strengths of each candidate in each of the remaining contests, and the proportional delegate allocation method in play, it is likely that Senator Clinton will win between 185 and 205 of the remaining 408 delegates remaining.

In the best case scenario, with 205 more pledged delegates, Senator Clinton will end the primary season with 1797 total delegates, assuming no more superdelegates select her by June 3rd.

To reach the magic number of 2,025 total delegates, she would need 227 of the remaining 306 uncommitted or unnamed superdelegates, excluding any gains with Edwards' pledged delegates. This represents 74% of the remaining undecided superdelegates left, which is a stark number compared to the fact that Senator Obama has outgained Senator Clinton in declared superdelegates on a consistent basis since Super Tuesday, closing the gap from 93 superdelegates to 23.

Even in the first two days since Clinton prevailed in Pennsylvania, Obama has netted two more superdelegates, outgaining Clinton 3 to 1.

If the superdelegates are to make or break Senator Clinton's candidacy, they will need to break toward her by a 3-to-1 margin in total.

What Role Will the Edwards' Delegates Play?

F) The Edwards Delegates

There may be a shift of some of Edwards' pledged delegates to either Senator Obama or Clinton after the Iowa congressional district conventions this weekend and the State convention on June 14th.

The last time Iowa readjusted its caucus results, Senator Obama picked up a net of 10 delegates, taking 8 of Edwards' 14 delegates and swaying one of Clinton's delegates to switch to him.
Edwards still has six delegates remaining in Iowa, four in New Hampshire and eight in South Carolina for a total of 18 pledged delegates. Both campaigns will pursue these delegates vigorously at every opportunity.

The impact of an Edwards endorsement would be of great significance in providing direction to these stranded pledged delegates. Currently Edwards' former national campaign chairman and many key Edwards backers have lined up behind Senator Obama, but whether this move will impact the movement of Edwards' delegates remains to be seen.

Also, the Edwards' delegates might swing the New Hampshire add-on delegate to Obama, as explained in part H -- Add-on Delegates.

1627: The Pledged Delegate Magic Number

E) Pledged Delegate Magic Number: 1627

As there are 3253 pledged delegates in this contest, the candidate who earns at least 1627 pledged delegates can claim that he or she has won the majority of pledged delegates available.

Given the current pace of the nomination process, and the expected results in future contests, it is very likely that Senator Obama will break this magic number on May 20th during the Kentucky and Oregon contests.

If Senators Obama and Clinton were to split each contest from here on out, Senator Obama would have 1650 pledged delegates after May 20th, and thus he will be assured the most pledged delegates at the Democratic National Convention.

By what Margins Must Clinton Win By to Win the Most Pledged Delegates?

D) Clinton needs to win by 38% from here on out

For Senator Clinton to overtake Senator Obama in the Pledged Delegate count by June 3rd, she would have to win each contest by an approximate margin of 69% to 31% to overcome Senator Obama's 154 pledged delegate lead.

The likelihood of this development is virtually impossible given all the evidence so far in this tightly contested election.

How Can Clinton Close the Pledged Delegate Gap?

C) Clinton needs large victories to close the pledged delegate gap

Given the proportional allocation of pledged delegates in the Democrat Primary contests, Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are more likely to exchange small shifts in delegates throughout the final nine contests, unless there is a large margin(+20%) of victory for one of them in the larger remaining states.

Senator Clinton is poised to win large victories in Kentucky (60) and West Virginia (39), where she is outpolling Senator Obama by almost 30 points. According to the rough estimates of the Slate Delegate Calculator, twin 30 point victories in Kentucky and West Virginia will only net Senator Clinton 15 and 8 delegates respectively for a total shift of 23 delegates.

In contrast, if Senator Obama's 20-point lead in North Carolina (115) holds up, he will net 23 delegates and negate the impact of these two contests.

Senator Obama's other big opportunity to earn a large share of net delegates appears to be Oregon, where a 16 point victory will earn him an estimated haul of 30 delegates to Clinton's 22 for a margin of 8 delegates.

Puerto Rico remains a mystery, but it appears that this race will either be tighter than expected or shift to Obama given his support among key officials on this island and the fact that he is already up with advertising in a state where the hispanic population does not react to political issues the same way that the hispanic population in Texas and California react.

Guam is a wash, as a candidate would have to win 62.5% of the vote to earn a 3-to-1 split of the 4 delegates.

Montana and South Dakota are probably large Obama victories but he probably will not net more than 5 delegates total from these two contests.

Whoever can close the gap in states where a disadvantage exists or maintain a large gap where an advantage exists will fare better in the final 9 contests.

As such, the chance that one candidate emerges from the final 9 contests with more than a 20 delegate swing in their favor is bleak. Obama is likely to win 10 more delegates than Clinton given projections in each of the remaining states.

STATE PROJECTION

Guam: Split

Indiana: Clinton +4
North Carolina: Obama +15
West Virginia: Clinton +4
Kentucky: Clinton +5
Oregon: Obama +8
Puerto Rico: Clinton +7
Montana: Obama +4
South Dakota: Obama +3

FINAL 9: Obama +10


FINAL PROJECTED PLEDGED DELEGATE COUNT

Obama: 1699 (52.2%)

Clinton: 1533 (47.1%)

OBAMA LEAD: 166 Pledged Delegates (5.1% margin)

N.B. Edwards' 18 delegates plus the news sources' lack of a perfect delegate count as some states are still sorting out caucus results and other results is the reason for any mathematical error here.

408 Pledged Delegates Remain

B) There are 408 pledged delegates left to be won in the remaining nine contests.

May 3rd: Guam (4 pledged delegates)
May 6th: North Carolina (115) and Indiana (72)
May 13th: West Virginia (28)
May 20th: Kentucky (51) and Oregon (52)
June 1st: Puerto Rico (55)
June 3rd: Montana (16) and South Dakota (15)

Senator Obama currently has 1724 total delegates and would need 301 of these remaining delegates (73.8%) in order to reach the magic number of 2025 total delegates.

Senator Clinton cannot capture the nomination by pledged delegate alone at this point, as she would still be 25 delegates shy (at 2000) even if she managed the impossible by capturing 100% (all 408) of the remaining delegates.

The Current Status of the Race: Obama Leads in Pledged Delegates

Here are some things we know about this race moving forward.

A) Obama leads Clinton in pledged delegates

Senator Obama leads Senator Clinton in total delegates, although the exact number varies from news source to news source. Below is a table with the breakdown in pledged and superdelegates:

Delegate Taxonomy

To win the Democrat Party Nomination, a candidate must earn a majority of the delegates awarded throughout the nomination process. As there is a total of 4,049 delegates currently, a candidate will need 2,025 to declare victory.

Delegate Taxonomy

There are two classifications of delegates that a candidate can earn in the race for the nomination: pledged and super.

Pledged Delegates

Pledged Delegates are those delegates earned through the course of each of the 55 election contests held during the primary season. These contests include those held in all 50 states, one for Democrats Abroad, and four for United States territories (Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands).

Each jurisdiction selects the manner by which their delegates are apportioned--by caucus, primary, or even a "primacaucus".

For the 2008 Democrat Primary, there are 3,253 pledged delegates allocated in the 55 contests.


Superdelegates are those delegates designated by the Democratic National Committee by virtue of one of the following characteristics [number]:

1. Democratic Governor [31 ]
2. Democratic US Senator [48]
3. Democratic US Congressmember [219]
4. Democratic Congressional Delegates [4] -- (ex officio Congressional representatives from the four United States Territories: Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands)
5. Distinguished Party Leaders [20] -- (former Presidents, Vice Presidents and Party Luminaries)
6. Democratic National Committee selections [398] -- (members and officers of the DNC --such as state party chairs -- and groups affiliated with the DNC -- such as College Democrats of America)
7. Add-on Delegates [76] -- Additional delegates allocated to each of the 55 jurisdictions on basis of population, with the rules and timing for selecting the delegates created by each jurisdiction.

For the 2008 Democrat Primary, there are 796 superdelegates allocated total for each of the seven categories.

Total Delegates:

3253 Pledged Delegates + 796 Superdelegates = 4049 Delegates

Caveats:

1. If an elected officeholder (Governor, Senator, Congressmember) considered as a superdelegate at any point no longer holds the office prior to the Democrat National Convention as a result of resignation, party turnover or death, then the number of total delegates in the Democrat Primary decreases by one, and could thus alter the number of delegates needed for a majority.
2. If the Democrat Party wins an office prior to the Democrat National Convention (Governor, Senator, Congressmember), then that officeholder shall become a superdelegate and the number of total delegates in the Democrat Primary shall increase by one, and could thus alter the number of delegates needed for a majority
3. In the Democrats Abroad jurisdiction, each delegate gets half a vote, so there are eight delegates available but only four votes
4. The States of Florida and Michigan were stripped of all pledged and superdelegates as a result of the State's action to move these primaries ahead of the Super Tuesday election date.