And now more than ever I think it is important to put forth the reasons for this again, as one of the three races will now become more "active" in the coming weeks.
The 4,048 total delegates available in this race (as a result of the Florida/Michigan debacle) can be broken down into three categories:
- 3253 are Pledged Delegates: Pledged Delegates are won as a direct result of the 55 contests held in each state, DC, territories and Democrats Abroad. These 3253 pledged delegates are bound through the first vote in the Democratic National Convention, and represent an 80.4% share of the total delegates.
- 76 are Add-On Delegates: Add-on Delegates are awarded to each state, primarily to balance out the different demographics of their delegate slate to be "diverse". Each state has its own system of handling this process, but in the end, it seems like most states have the State Party Chair nominate people for the spot and then the state delegates or state committee picks them, based on different qualifications. This year these add-ons may be crucial to one candidate's victory. These Add-On Delegates represent a 1.9% share of the total delegates.
- 719 are Superdelegates: These Superdelegates, in my mind, are the current batch of 795 superdelegates (according to the mainstream media) minus the 76 add-on delegates. These superdelegates comprise members of Congress, Govenors, Party Loyalists and Distinguished Party Leaders in the Democratic Party. These Superdelegates represent a 17.8% share of the total delegates.
Each of these categories should be put in its own context and be considered a separate contest, whose results will be influential in the overall contest of Total Delegates. The reason is simple: each has their own schedule to follow.
Pledged Delegates are allocated based on a fixed schedule set by the DNC. This schedule has created three elements of interest:
(1) That Florida and Michigan tried to jump ahead of the pack cost them all of their delegates--pledged, add-on and super; and
(2) Over 56% of the pledged delegates in the primary contest was decided by the Original Super Tuesday, February 5th, front-loading the schedule.
(3) Given the rules of the party, only huge victories in small states, large victories in medium states, and healthy victories in large states can shift bunches of these delegates one way or the other. As a result, the likelihood of any candidate earning more than 55% of these pledged delegates in the last nine contests is small. The lead for Obama in Pledged Delegates is insurmountable.
Add-On Delegates are also allocated on a fixed schedule, but that schedule is determined by when each state has its state convention, where the final delegation to the national committee is selected and produced. As a result, these add-on delegates are chosen in each state well after that state went to the ballot box, creating a second schedule that is different from the Pledged Delegate Schedule.
Of the 76 Add-On Delegates, 59 are chosen in the months of May and June as follows (a more detailed schedule can be found here):
Period of Time: # of Add-on Delegates Chosen
May 1 - May 7: 11
May 8 - May 14: 5
May 15- May 21: 8
May 22 - May 28: 5
May 29 - June 4: 2
June 5 - June 11: 11
June 12 - June 18: 9
June 19 - June 25: 8
As you can see, 28 of the add-ons will be chosen after the last primary is held, which will dramatically alter their importance if the superdelegates break one way or the other. The 31 chosen from now until then (including New York's 4 today) will still play a role, most likely.
Super Delegates are not allocated on any schedule. These delegates are free to endorse whomever they want, whenever they want, all the way up to the Convention ballot. As we saw today, a super delegate can endorse one candidate and then switch to another. This type of delegate has a host of issues to consider, including how their district/state voted, how vulnerable they are to picking the loser, how vulnerable they are in their own district by alienating half their base, when is the right time to come out, etc. If there is a schedule involved, it's a personal one or one designed to minimize political damage or maximize political gain.
As you can see, treating each type of delegate the same is not helpful in understanding this race. When Clinton picks up four new Add-On Delegates from New York today, it does not indicate any new "momentum"; neither will it for Obama when he picks up three Add-On Delegates from New York. This analysis won't prevent "spinning" these results as some measuring stick for how the public feels about the race, however.
Understanding each race separately allows you to make three key distinctions:
(1) Of the 3253 Pledged Delegates, only 408 (12.5%), or 1/8 th of the total pledged delegates, remain. After May 6th, only 217 (6.7%), or 1/15th, will remain. The impact of the pledged delegates from here on out only serve to fill out the rest of the scorecard, most likely in a tie, preserving Obama's 154 Pledged Delegate lead.
(2) Of the 76 Add-On Delegates, only 16 have made their choices known, so the resulting 60 unnamed or undeclared Add-On Delegates will become of the same significance as the primaries of Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia and Guam. These delegates grow in importance over time. Since Obama has won so many more states than Clinton and by such a larger margin of victory, it is likely that Obama will net between 8 and 16 total delegates from this group.
(3) Of the 719 Super Delegates, 505 have made their choices. The remaining 214 Super Delegates will decide this race in the end, and the more their votes become scrutinized, the more the internal mechanisms governing their choices become strained.
Obama's projected lead in Pledged and Add-On Delegates requires him to win far fewer Super Delegates to win the nomination than it requires Senator Clinton.
One Projection (Charitable to Clinton):
Assuming that Clinton and Obama split the last 64 Add-On Delegates (including New York) and the last 408 Pledged Delegates, the final totals for each of them in that category will be:
OBAMA: 1975
CLINTON: 1844
With only 214 Super Delegates remaining to make a decision,
Obama would need 50 to get to 2025 (23.4% of the remainder) and
Clinton would need 181 (84.6%) to reach 2025.
Actual Projections:
The projections for the Add-On Delegates and Pledged Delegates from here on out, however, do not indicate a pure split. Instead, Obama is projected to pick up 209 of the Pledged Delegates and 40 of the Add-On Delegates (199 and 24 for Clinton, respectively), which would make their totals:
OBAMA: 1988
CLINTON: 1831
Then in this scenario, with only 214 Super Delegates remaining to make a decision,
Obama would need 37 to get to 2025 (17.3% of the remainder) and
Clinton would need 194 (90.7%) to reach 2025.
As a result of this disparity, Clinton needs to pick up 21 super delegates for every 4 that Obama picks up (not counting add-ons, of course), to keep pace.
To move ahead of pace, Clinton needs to pick up 6 super delegates for every 1 that Obama picks up.
It is better for Clinton to have zero movement among the super delegates at this point than to be matching Obama super delegate for superdelegate (and Obama actually has outgained her in super delegates 12-5 since Pennsylvania, with Clinton's 5 other total delegates being add-on delegates).
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