The Clinton Matrix

THE CLINTON MATRIX

I am unveiling for the first time my Clinton Matrix, which charts how she'll need to perform in the remaining key indicators of pledged delegates, add-on delegates and superdelegates.

By color-coding the chart I hope to provide you a visual of all the possibilities involved for Clinton to secure the 2025 delegates and to win the nomination.

This matrix is from the perspective of Senator Clinton's campaign.

The categories of pledged delegates and add-on delegates are pretty fixed at this point, in that they are less likely to swing wildly one way or the other given the proportional allocation rule for pledged delegates and the state-party-controlled characteristics of the add-on delegates.

The real wildcard left is the superdelegate category, which as I've explained earlier consists of the unpledged elected officeholders, distinguished party leaders and democratic party loyalists rewarded with a superdelegate vote. I separated add-on delegates from this category simply because those delegates are governed under much different rules, and are thus going to follow a different form of logic in their allocation.

The Two Axes: Pledged and Add-On Delegates

I set the range for the Pledged and Add-On Delegate categories from 30% -- 70% for each candidate, which covers the range for each handily. In reality, the most a candidate can hope for from each of these categories is 60%, and the least is 40%.

Consequently, in the matrix above I have italicized and reduced the font size for the squares that are not likely to happen, and put in bold the squares that were within this 60/40 range for each category, for each candidate, with the 50% pledged delegate + 50% add-on delegate square centered and with the percentage shown.

The Golden Center Square

This center square, achieved if Clinton wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates and 50% of the remaining add-on delegates, leaves a total of 194 superdelegates (out of 235) that Senator Clinton has to have in order to reach 2,025 and the nomination.

194 of 235 superdelegates represents an 82.5% share of the remaining superdelegates in the race.

Changes in the Future

As Senator Clinton outperforms the 50% rating for each of the two axes, her total of superdelegates needed decreases and her campaign moves to a square north and/or west of the center square.

As Senator Clinton underperforms the 50% rating for each of the two axes, her total of superdelgates needed increases and her campaign moves to a square south and/or east of the center square.

Keep in mind that this superdelegate matrix contemplates a total of 234 superdelegates, so while the raw total of superdelegates she will need stays the same within the grid, the percentage of total remaining superdelegates will become larger or smaller depending upon which candidate is receiving superdelegates and in what ratio. This may alter the shading of the square, which represents the range of the percent of the total remaining superdelegates Senator Clinton needs to reach 2,025.