April 26, 2008 Update

Let's see.

Four superdelegates up for grab today, with one in Iowa, two in Arizona and one in New Hampshire.

Obama lost a delegate in Iowa as a result of Edwards gaining new-found viability in a district where his previous lack of viability meant an extra delegate for Obama. This delegate now goes to Edwards. RESULT: OBAMA -1

Obama picked up a superdelegate in Arizona, when Obama supporter Charlene Fernandez was elected to the position of Vice Chair, which carries with it a superdelegate vote. RESULT: OBAMA +1

Clinton picked up the add-on delegate in New Hampshire, when Kathy Sullivan was elected to the position after being the only name submitted by the New Hampshire chair for consideration. RESULT: Clinton +1

The Arizona add-on delegate was named (Terry Goddard), but he has remained uncommitted at this time.

New Mexico's add-on delegate was named but not yet made public at this time.

4/27 UPDATE: Laurie Weahkee, lead organizer for the Native Amerian Voters Alliance, was named. She has not committed to either candidate.

Demconwatch found the article in the Albuquerque Journal that showed the behind-the-scenes fight over who was to be nominated. In short, Clinton backers wanted the nominee to come from the Central Committee members, which is strongly allied with Clinton. However, the rules dictate that the State Chair nominate for the position, and the overriding concern was to have Native American representation, with an uncommitted status in place to protect interest in New Mexico as the nomination fight continues.

Clinton +1, Obama 0 today, with two undecided add-on delegates.

The loss of a delegate to Edwards by Obama is only half as damaging to him as the declaration of the Arizona superdelegate's support for Obama is to Clinton.

In the first case, this was a delegate already decided, and that does not count for Clinton either, while removing one more delegate from the field, which benefits Obama.

In the second case, not only does Obama move one more delegate toward the nomination, but Clinton loses another superdelegate from the field that she needs to keep static in order to preserve her best chance at the nomination.

The Steady Stream of Superdelegate Declarations

I) The Steady Stream of Superdelegate Declarations

Given the very high probability that the scenario at the end of the above section will play out, Senator Clinton needs to keep the current number of undeclared superdelegates locked and not allow any more to declare for Senator Obama.

If Senator Clinton needs 208 of the remaining 241 superdelegates to support her in the end to win the nomination, then that means that Obama needs to only pick up between 34 more superdelegates (if Obama takes the Edwards delegates) and 52 superdelegates (if Clinton takes the Edwards delegates).

Furthermore, the more superdelegates declare their endorsements for Obama, the worse the math gets for Clinton on a psychological level as well. Let's say 20 more superdelegates announce their selections before the May 6th primaries in North Carolina and Indiana. And let's say that Clinton and Obama split these 20 superdelegates evenly. This would mean that Senator Clinton would then need 198 of the remaining 221 superdelegates at the end, which represents 89.6%!

What if 40 superdelegates announce in the next few weeks? And there is an even split again? Senator Clinton's new haul of superdelegates to win the nomination then becomes 93.5%!!

Every superdelegate that declares for Obama in the coming weeks forces Senator Clinton onto a more and more precarious path to the nomination. The pundits have declared that Senator Clinton would have to have the superdelegates give her the nomination, but as more and more superdelegates decide publicly, it may end up a situation where there are not enough superdelegates left to swing the nomination to Clinton.

What are the Add-On Delegates?

H) Add-On Delegates

The 74% share of superdelegates that Senator Clinton needs to secure the nomination (pending projections of delegate gains in the last nine contests) needs to be explored more thoroughly, because a large subset of the remaining superdelegate pool consists of what are known as add-on delegates

I wrote an extensive draft of an article on Slate.com's Trailhead blog about this issue (that got turned into an article) and followed up with an updated draft article to describe the impact of add-on delegates to the process.

In short, each state is awarded add-on delegates that act as superdelegates in declaring their support for a candidate. The number of add-on delegates ranges from one to five for each state, with only the largest states securing multiple add-on delegates. There are 76 add-on delegates awarded in the Democrat Primary.

These 76 add-on delegates are named throughout the nomination process by each state as a result of a state convention, a caucus convention, or other mechanism. So far 14 add-on delegates have been named, with the remaining 62 add-on delegates to be named between April 26 and June 21.

Of these 14 named delegates, eight have selected Obama, three have selected Clinton, and three remain undeclared at this point.

Since each state selects its add-on delegate in some fashion, and that fashion is typically dominated by the state party or by whichever candidate won the state during the primary, Senator Obama enjoys a large advantage in securing these add-on delegates because of the sheer number of states won and the dominance shown in winning those states.

Further hurting Senator Clinton are decisions like that of California to allocate their five add-on delegates on a 3-for-Clinton/2-for-Obama basis, instead of giving Clinton a clean sweep.

This means that of the pool of 306 remaining superdelegates from which Senator Clinton needs 74% support to overtake Senator Obama for the nomination, 65 of these superdelegates are add-on delegates that have either not declared (3) or have not yet been named by their respective states (62). These 65 add-on delegates compose 21% of the remaining superdelegates.

The problem for Senator Clinton is that these 65 add-on delegates will with certainty break for Senator Obama over the next two months as they are named. Even if you grant Senator Clinton a charitable 33-to-32 lead over Senator Obama for these last add-on delegates, Senator Clinton would then need 196 (227-33) of the remaining 241 (306-65) superdelegates to overtake Senator Obama for the nomination.

196 of 241 superdelegates represents an 81.3% share of these undeclared superdelegates. Clinton would need the remaining (non-add-on) superdelegates to break for her on a 4-to-1 basis for the nomination to be hers.

Keep in mind, however, that this scenario is charitable to Senator Clinton, in that she would receive 33 of the 65 undeclared/unnamed add-on delegates. Let's figure out how these add-on delegates should break down.

Demconwatch.blogspot.com has the gold standard of the breakdown of the add-on schedule, as well as a tracker that indicates if a named add-on has made a choice between Senator Obama and Senator Clinton. According to their analysis the following add-on delegates have yet to decide or have yet to be named:

UNDECIDED: Three total

Tennessee (2): Vicki Harwell and Jerry Lee

Missouri (1): Jay Nixon

UNNAMED: (Number) [Date Selected]: 62 total

Arizona (1) [4/26/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention.] RESULT: UNCOMMITTED

New Hampshire (1) [4/26/2008 -- Selected by open ballot, majority vote, by a committee of district-level delegates.] RESULT: CLINTON PICKUP

New Mexico (1) [4/26/2008 -- Selected by the State Party Central Committee] RESULT: UNCOMMITTED

Maryland (2) [5/1/2008 -- Selected at the State Democratic Central Committee meeting]
New York (4) [5/1/2008 -- Selected during the State Democratic Executive Committee]
Louisiana (1) [5/3/2008 -- Selected by the Democratic State Central Committee]
South Carolina (1) [5/3/2008 -- Elected during the State Convention]
Illinois (3) [5/5/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Utah (1) [5/9/2008 -- Elected by a quorum of district level delegates during the State Convention]
Massachusetts (2) [5/10/2008 -- Elected by the State Party Committee]
Ohio (2) [5/10/2008 -- Selected by the State Executive Committee]
Colorado (1) [5/17/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Kansas (1) [5/17/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Michigan (0/2) [5/17/2008 -- Selected by the State Central Committee.]
Nevada (1) [5/17/2008 -- Selected by the state convention as a whole]
California (5) [5/18/2008 -- Selected during the Delegation Meeting]
Alaska (1) [5/23/2008 -- Selected at the state convention]
Georgia (2) [5/24/2008 -- Selected during the State Committee Meeting]
Wyoming (1) [5/24/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Hawaii (1) [5/25/2008 -- Selected by the State Party Committee]
Mississippi (1) [5/31/2008 -- Selected by the State Convention]
Maine (1) [6/1/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Kentucky (1) [6/7/2008 -- Nominated by the Chair and selected during the State Convention]
Minnesota (2) [6/7/2008 -- Elected during the State Convention]
Pennsylvania (3) [6/7/2008 -- Selected by the Pennsylvania State Democratic Committee]
Texas (3) [6/7/2008 -- Elected at the state convention]
Vermont (1) [6/7/2008 -- Selected by a quorum of elected district level delegates]
Montana (1) [6/8/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Wisconsin (2) [6/13/2008 -- Just before the Convention meets, the Administrative Committee of the Wisconsin Democratic Party chooses these delegates]
Idaho (1) [6/14/2008 -- Nominated by State Chair and selected by State Convention Delegates]
Iowa (1) [6/14/2008 -- Selected at the state convention]
Virginia (2) [6/14/2008 -- Elected at the State Convention]
West Virginia (1) [6/14/2008 -- Selected by the State Democratic Executive Committee]
Washington (2) [6/15/2008 -- Nominated by the State Democratic Chair and selected during the State Convention]
Rhode Island (1) [6/19/2008 -- Selected by the State Committee]
Indiana (1) [6/21/2008 -- Selected by the district-level delegates at the State Convention]
North Carolina (2) [6/21/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Oregon (1) [6/21/2008 -- Elected by the State Convention]
Puerto Rico (1) [6/21/2008 -- Selected during the Democratic Assembly]
South Dakota (1) [6/21/2008 -- Selected during the State Party Central Committee meeting]
Nebraska (1) [6/21/2008 -- Selected by the State Convention]


Now let's try to figure out how these add-on delegates will be chosen or expected to vote.

Obama States Won Outright / Expected to Win

Maryland (2) Louisiana (1) South Carolina (1) Illinois (3) Utah (1) Colorado (1)

Kansas (1) Alaska (1) Georgia (2) Wyoming (1) Hawaii (1) Mississippi (1) Maine (1)
Minnesota (2) Vermont (1) Montana (1) Wisconsin (2) Idaho (1) Iowa (1)

Virginia (2) Washington (2) North Carolina (2) Oregon (1) South Dakota (1)

Nebraska (1) California (2 of 5)

This is a total of 35 add-on delegates


Clinton States Won Outright / Expected to Win

Arizona (1) Ohio (2) California (3 of 5) Kentucky (1) West Virginia (1)

Rhode Island (1) Tennessee (2)

4/26 Update:
The Arizona add-on delegate has remained uncommitted.

This is a total of 11 add-on delegates


Toss Ups

California (5)

California State Chair Art Torres has already declared he will split the add-on delegates on a 3-for-Clinton, 2-for-Obama basis as a result of the vote proportion in the State. The delegates have been added above for each candidate in their calculations.


New Mexico (1)

New Mexico is a toss up because this state was narrowly won by Senator Clinton (51% - 49%). The add-on delegate is chosen by the State Party Central Committee. Governor Richardson's endorsement of Obama may outweigh the 2% victory for Senator Clinton because of his influence with his State Party.

Likely outcome: Obama


Massachussetts (2)

Massachussetts is a toss-up in my book because, although Clinton won this state handily in the primary (56% - 41%), the entire Democratic Party machine here is in the Obama camp (Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick). The State Party Committee selects the add-ons, and the composition of this State Party Committee needs analysis.

While Clinton should lead with newly elected memebers of the State Party Committee, it is likely Obama has support within the current framework as a result of the allegiances of the top Democrats in the state.

There is a good chance this allocation will be split among the two.

Likely outcome: 1 for Obama, 1 for Clinton


Indiana (1)

This state has not yet voted and current polls show a dead heat. The process by which the add-on delegate is chosen is described here -- in short, the add-on delegate is chosen by 47 district level delegates at the State Convention. I think Obama wins this state, and thus the add-on. This truly is a coin flip.

Prediction: Obama


Puerto Rico (1)

While many assume Clinton will win because of the majority Hispanic vote in Puerto Rico, this contest is a toss-up because of Obama's high level of support among key officials in the state as well as his early start in advertising. Furthermore, Puerto Ricans are not the same as Tejanos or other Latinos in the mainland United States, as they have a strong cultural identity with the island and strong views about their role in the United States.

Prediction: Clinton


New Hampshire (1)

New Hampshire is a toss-up in my book because, although Clinton took the state, the delegate breakdown was 9 for Clinton, 9 for Obama and 4 for Edwards. The add-on delegate is selected by an open ballot of a committee of district-level delegates. The Edwards delegates will play a major role here as they will swing the add-on delegate decision to one camp or another. I expect Obama to pick up this delegate when all is said and done.

Prediction: Obama

4/26 Update: New Hampshire has elected its add-on delegate, and it is Kathy Sullivan, who immediately endorsed Senator Clinton. Why was my analysis wrong? I was counting on there being more than one nominee for the position. Looks like this one was preordained by the State Party Chair, Raymond Buckley (according to demconwatch.blogspot.com).

Result: Clinton



New York (4)

Senator Clinton won her "home" state, but only by a 57-40 margin. In contrast, Senator Obama won Illinois by 31% (64% - 33%).

These four add-on delegates are elected at the State Convention on May 15th. Obama should be able to peel off one of these add-on delegates, and if lucky perhaps two, if his convention delegates are organized and disciplined. Expect the slate of add-on delegate nominees from the Obama Campaign to include just two names so that his convention delegates are unified.

Prediction: Clinton (3), Obama (1)


Nevada (1)

Like New Hampshire, this state was split in its decision in the caucuses.

The key here is the State Democratic Chair, Sam Lieberman. So far he is uncommitted as a superdelegate. Per State Party rules, the nominees for the add-on delegate to be selected at the State Convention are put forth by the State Chair. Per the rules:

The unpledged PLEO (one, 1) who does not have to declare as a candidate or
Presidential Preference, will be nominated by the State Chair to achieve
gender balance among the unpledged five (5) DNC members

Prediction: Obama

While Clinton won this state and while she will have more delegates at the State Convention, politics intervene here most likely. Don't forget that the most powerful Democrat in this state is Harry Reid, and he is pushing hard to force superdelegates to declare their choices and to bring an end to this nominating contest. I predict that Reid will work behind the scenes to encourage Lieberman to propose nominees for the add-on delegate slot that consist of outright or stealth Obama supporters. As the State Convention occurs after the critical May contests in North Carolina and Indiana, it is likely that this selection will be used to hasten the end for Senator Clinton.


Ohio (2)

Senator Clinton won this contest by 10 points, which brings into question whether or not she can take both add-on delegates. The selection of the add-ons is made by the State Executive Committee per the nomination of the State Chair, Chris Redfern. With Governor Strickland and three of the seven Congressmembers already backing Clinton, it is very likely that Clinton will have enough state institutional support to take down both add-ons.

Prediction: Clinton (2)


Texas (3)

Senator Clinton won the popular vote in the primary in Texas by a few points, while Senator Obama won the caucus portion of the primary and, as a result, more total delegates (99-to-94).

The Texas Delegate Selection Plan states that the nominees for these three add-on delegates (two per spot) will come from the Committee to Nominate At-Large Delegates of the State Convention. This Committee comprises 34 members -- one member elected by each Senatorial District Caucus and three members elected by the Permanent Convention Chair.

The Permanent Convention Chair is Boyd Richie, who currently is an uncommitted superdelegate.

The Senatorial District Caucus is a confusing term. If it refers to the caucuses held after the primary, then that means Senator Obama will be represented by all 31 Senatorial Districts, as he swept each for the caucus victory. If this is the case then Senator Obama will gain all three add-on delegates. I am seeking clarification on this process.

Prediction: Obama (3), unless a different definition of Senatorial District Caucus is being used.


Pennsylvania (3)

Senator Clinton won this state by 9 points, sweeping most of the state. The three add-on delegates here are selected by the State Democratic Committee. Obama could find a way to take one of the three add-on delegates if some form of proportional representation exists for the State Democratic Committee, but given Senator Clinton's stranglehold on the state's democratic infrastructure, from mayors to the Governor, it seems likely that this state will go totally Clinton.

Prediction: Clinton (3)


Predicted Results of the "Toss Up" contests

Obama: 9
Clinton: 10

Looking ahead at the 62 add-on delegates yet to be named plus the three already named, you can see from the above analysis that Senator Obama could earn up to 44 of the 65 add-on delegates yet to decide or to be named.

This total may be a bit conservative for Senator Clinton, yet it is her states in play that is causing this problem. The fact that she lost the add-on for Oklahoma, a state in which she beat Senator Obama by a wide margin, demonstrates Obama's strength in this process.

As a result, Senator Clinton would then need to win 208 (or 86.3%) of the remaining 241 uncommitted superdelegates to achieve her goal of the nomination as a result of the add-on delegate decisions.

With the New Hampshire result, the new number is 207 of 241 (85.9%)

With the Arizona result, the new number is 207 of 240 (86.3%)

Meet the Superdelegates

G) The Superdelegates

Of the 4,049 total delegates available to the candidates, 796 (19.7%) of these delegates are superdelegates. Superdelegates are not bound by the results of any specific contest; rather, these superdelegates are able to endorse any candidate they want at any time and to change their mind at any time, even up until the convention.

These superdelegates are largely from a group of people selected on the basis of their holding elected office or on the basis of their position with or loyalty to the DNC.

So far Senator Clinton outpaces Senator Obama in this category of declared superdelegates by approximately 23. By most counts Senator Clinton has 256 superdelegates and Senator Obama has 233.

Accurate counts are not always easy to obtain given the informality by which superdelegates sometimes make their decisions known, or by a change of heart that may not be yet recorded, or by assumptions made by different new sources about who supports whom.

For Senator Clinton to have any credible chance of winning the nomination by reaching 2,025 total delegates, she will need to rely heavily on the superdelegates to align themselves with her.

According to projections based on the strengths of each candidate in each of the remaining contests, and the proportional delegate allocation method in play, it is likely that Senator Clinton will win between 185 and 205 of the remaining 408 delegates remaining.

In the best case scenario, with 205 more pledged delegates, Senator Clinton will end the primary season with 1797 total delegates, assuming no more superdelegates select her by June 3rd.

To reach the magic number of 2,025 total delegates, she would need 227 of the remaining 306 uncommitted or unnamed superdelegates, excluding any gains with Edwards' pledged delegates. This represents 74% of the remaining undecided superdelegates left, which is a stark number compared to the fact that Senator Obama has outgained Senator Clinton in declared superdelegates on a consistent basis since Super Tuesday, closing the gap from 93 superdelegates to 23.

Even in the first two days since Clinton prevailed in Pennsylvania, Obama has netted two more superdelegates, outgaining Clinton 3 to 1.

If the superdelegates are to make or break Senator Clinton's candidacy, they will need to break toward her by a 3-to-1 margin in total.

What Role Will the Edwards' Delegates Play?

F) The Edwards Delegates

There may be a shift of some of Edwards' pledged delegates to either Senator Obama or Clinton after the Iowa congressional district conventions this weekend and the State convention on June 14th.

The last time Iowa readjusted its caucus results, Senator Obama picked up a net of 10 delegates, taking 8 of Edwards' 14 delegates and swaying one of Clinton's delegates to switch to him.
Edwards still has six delegates remaining in Iowa, four in New Hampshire and eight in South Carolina for a total of 18 pledged delegates. Both campaigns will pursue these delegates vigorously at every opportunity.

The impact of an Edwards endorsement would be of great significance in providing direction to these stranded pledged delegates. Currently Edwards' former national campaign chairman and many key Edwards backers have lined up behind Senator Obama, but whether this move will impact the movement of Edwards' delegates remains to be seen.

Also, the Edwards' delegates might swing the New Hampshire add-on delegate to Obama, as explained in part H -- Add-on Delegates.

1627: The Pledged Delegate Magic Number

E) Pledged Delegate Magic Number: 1627

As there are 3253 pledged delegates in this contest, the candidate who earns at least 1627 pledged delegates can claim that he or she has won the majority of pledged delegates available.

Given the current pace of the nomination process, and the expected results in future contests, it is very likely that Senator Obama will break this magic number on May 20th during the Kentucky and Oregon contests.

If Senators Obama and Clinton were to split each contest from here on out, Senator Obama would have 1650 pledged delegates after May 20th, and thus he will be assured the most pledged delegates at the Democratic National Convention.

By what Margins Must Clinton Win By to Win the Most Pledged Delegates?

D) Clinton needs to win by 38% from here on out

For Senator Clinton to overtake Senator Obama in the Pledged Delegate count by June 3rd, she would have to win each contest by an approximate margin of 69% to 31% to overcome Senator Obama's 154 pledged delegate lead.

The likelihood of this development is virtually impossible given all the evidence so far in this tightly contested election.

How Can Clinton Close the Pledged Delegate Gap?

C) Clinton needs large victories to close the pledged delegate gap

Given the proportional allocation of pledged delegates in the Democrat Primary contests, Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are more likely to exchange small shifts in delegates throughout the final nine contests, unless there is a large margin(+20%) of victory for one of them in the larger remaining states.

Senator Clinton is poised to win large victories in Kentucky (60) and West Virginia (39), where she is outpolling Senator Obama by almost 30 points. According to the rough estimates of the Slate Delegate Calculator, twin 30 point victories in Kentucky and West Virginia will only net Senator Clinton 15 and 8 delegates respectively for a total shift of 23 delegates.

In contrast, if Senator Obama's 20-point lead in North Carolina (115) holds up, he will net 23 delegates and negate the impact of these two contests.

Senator Obama's other big opportunity to earn a large share of net delegates appears to be Oregon, where a 16 point victory will earn him an estimated haul of 30 delegates to Clinton's 22 for a margin of 8 delegates.

Puerto Rico remains a mystery, but it appears that this race will either be tighter than expected or shift to Obama given his support among key officials on this island and the fact that he is already up with advertising in a state where the hispanic population does not react to political issues the same way that the hispanic population in Texas and California react.

Guam is a wash, as a candidate would have to win 62.5% of the vote to earn a 3-to-1 split of the 4 delegates.

Montana and South Dakota are probably large Obama victories but he probably will not net more than 5 delegates total from these two contests.

Whoever can close the gap in states where a disadvantage exists or maintain a large gap where an advantage exists will fare better in the final 9 contests.

As such, the chance that one candidate emerges from the final 9 contests with more than a 20 delegate swing in their favor is bleak. Obama is likely to win 10 more delegates than Clinton given projections in each of the remaining states.

STATE PROJECTION

Guam: Split

Indiana: Clinton +4
North Carolina: Obama +15
West Virginia: Clinton +4
Kentucky: Clinton +5
Oregon: Obama +8
Puerto Rico: Clinton +7
Montana: Obama +4
South Dakota: Obama +3

FINAL 9: Obama +10


FINAL PROJECTED PLEDGED DELEGATE COUNT

Obama: 1699 (52.2%)

Clinton: 1533 (47.1%)

OBAMA LEAD: 166 Pledged Delegates (5.1% margin)

N.B. Edwards' 18 delegates plus the news sources' lack of a perfect delegate count as some states are still sorting out caucus results and other results is the reason for any mathematical error here.

408 Pledged Delegates Remain

B) There are 408 pledged delegates left to be won in the remaining nine contests.

May 3rd: Guam (4 pledged delegates)
May 6th: North Carolina (115) and Indiana (72)
May 13th: West Virginia (28)
May 20th: Kentucky (51) and Oregon (52)
June 1st: Puerto Rico (55)
June 3rd: Montana (16) and South Dakota (15)

Senator Obama currently has 1724 total delegates and would need 301 of these remaining delegates (73.8%) in order to reach the magic number of 2025 total delegates.

Senator Clinton cannot capture the nomination by pledged delegate alone at this point, as she would still be 25 delegates shy (at 2000) even if she managed the impossible by capturing 100% (all 408) of the remaining delegates.

The Current Status of the Race: Obama Leads in Pledged Delegates

Here are some things we know about this race moving forward.

A) Obama leads Clinton in pledged delegates

Senator Obama leads Senator Clinton in total delegates, although the exact number varies from news source to news source. Below is a table with the breakdown in pledged and superdelegates:

Delegate Taxonomy

To win the Democrat Party Nomination, a candidate must earn a majority of the delegates awarded throughout the nomination process. As there is a total of 4,049 delegates currently, a candidate will need 2,025 to declare victory.

Delegate Taxonomy

There are two classifications of delegates that a candidate can earn in the race for the nomination: pledged and super.

Pledged Delegates

Pledged Delegates are those delegates earned through the course of each of the 55 election contests held during the primary season. These contests include those held in all 50 states, one for Democrats Abroad, and four for United States territories (Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands).

Each jurisdiction selects the manner by which their delegates are apportioned--by caucus, primary, or even a "primacaucus".

For the 2008 Democrat Primary, there are 3,253 pledged delegates allocated in the 55 contests.


Superdelegates are those delegates designated by the Democratic National Committee by virtue of one of the following characteristics [number]:

1. Democratic Governor [31 ]
2. Democratic US Senator [48]
3. Democratic US Congressmember [219]
4. Democratic Congressional Delegates [4] -- (ex officio Congressional representatives from the four United States Territories: Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands)
5. Distinguished Party Leaders [20] -- (former Presidents, Vice Presidents and Party Luminaries)
6. Democratic National Committee selections [398] -- (members and officers of the DNC --such as state party chairs -- and groups affiliated with the DNC -- such as College Democrats of America)
7. Add-on Delegates [76] -- Additional delegates allocated to each of the 55 jurisdictions on basis of population, with the rules and timing for selecting the delegates created by each jurisdiction.

For the 2008 Democrat Primary, there are 796 superdelegates allocated total for each of the seven categories.

Total Delegates:

3253 Pledged Delegates + 796 Superdelegates = 4049 Delegates

Caveats:

1. If an elected officeholder (Governor, Senator, Congressmember) considered as a superdelegate at any point no longer holds the office prior to the Democrat National Convention as a result of resignation, party turnover or death, then the number of total delegates in the Democrat Primary decreases by one, and could thus alter the number of delegates needed for a majority.
2. If the Democrat Party wins an office prior to the Democrat National Convention (Governor, Senator, Congressmember), then that officeholder shall become a superdelegate and the number of total delegates in the Democrat Primary shall increase by one, and could thus alter the number of delegates needed for a majority
3. In the Democrats Abroad jurisdiction, each delegate gets half a vote, so there are eight delegates available but only four votes
4. The States of Florida and Michigan were stripped of all pledged and superdelegates as a result of the State's action to move these primaries ahead of the Super Tuesday election date.

Introduction

Welcome to Superdelegateland! This is a one-stop emporium of information for those of you that want to know more about the Superdelegate situation in this 2008 Democratic Primary process, and also for those of you Superdelegates that would like some analysis of the true state of the race between Senators Obama and Clinton without the "spin" put forth by both campaigns.

I am an independent and do not have a stake in this race. However, that will not prevent me from "calling it like it is" when examining claims by both campaigns as to the true "status" of the race.

I hope you find this site worth the time. Feel free to link to it at your leisure. Wherever I find arguments I think are interesting regarding this theme, I will post them here and give credit where credit is due.

Hope you can get some of your questions answered!