Saturday, May 31, 2008

Democratic Rules & Bylaws Committee Reaches Compromise on Michigan and Florida

Here is the latest from today's epic DNC RBC meeting:

MICHIGAN:

Previously:

Michigan had 128 pledged delegates, 28 automatic delegates and 2 add-on delegates for a total of 158 total delegates.

As a result of the January Primary, Senator Clinton would have received 73 pledged delegates and "uncommitted" would have received 55 pledged delegates.

As of today, Senator Clinton had received the endorsement of eight (8) automatic delegates and Senator Obama had received the endorsement of five (5) automatic delegates. The two add-on delegates will be announced on June 14th, 2008.

Results:



  1. All total delegates from Michigan will be halved. There are now 128 pledged delegates casting 64 votes at the Convention, 28 automatic delegates casting 14 votes at the Convention, and 2 add-on delegates casting 1 vote at the Convention.
  2. Senator Clinton received 69 of the 128 pledged delegates; Senator Obama received 59 of the 128 pledged delegates.
  3. The effective pledged delegate votes for each candidate: Clinton 34.5, Obama 29.5
  4. Senator Obama is guaranteed the state's two add-on delegates with half-vote each.

Including the automatic delegates already declared and the future add-on delegate guarantee, as a result of today's actions,

Senator Clinton gains 38.5 total delegate votes (34.5 pledged, 4.0 automatic)

Senator Obama gains 33 total delegate votes (29.5 pledged, 2.5 automatic, 1.0 add-on)

The Clinton campaign nets a +5.5 total of delegates today from the State of Michigan.

The Obama campaign is hardly damaged by this result and removes the most dangerous contentious point of the campaign from the Clinton arsenal, ending the possibility of an ugly floor fight at the convention.

FLORIDA:

Previously:

Florida had 185 pledged delegates, 23 automatic delegates and 3 add-on delegates for a total of 211 total delegates.

As a result of the January primary, Senator Clinton received 105 pledged delegates, Senator Obama received 67 pledged delegates and John Edwards received 13 pledged delegates.

As of today, Senator Clinton has received the endorsement of 8 automatic delegates, and Senator Obama has received the support of 4 automatic delegates. Of the three add-on delegates allocated on April 5th, Senator Obama received one add-on delegate and Senator Clinton zero, with two remaining uncommitted.

Results:

  1. All total delegates from Florida will be halved and seated as a result of the January Primary.
  2. There are now a total of 185 pledged delegates casting 92.5 votes at the convention, 23 automatic delegates casting 11.5 votes at the convention, and 3 add-on delegates casting 1.5 votes at the convention, for a total of 105.5 votes at the convention.
  3. Senator Clinton's 105 pledged delegates will cast 52.5 votes, Senator Obama's 67 pledged delegates will cast 33.5 votes, and Edwards' 13 pledged delegates will cast 6.5 votes.
  4. The effective pledged delegate vote for each candidate: Clinton 52.5, Obama 33.5, Edwards 6.5.

Senator Clinton picks up 56.5 total delegates (52.5 pledged, 4.0 automatic, 0.0 add-on)

Senator Obama picks up of 36 total delegates (33.5 pledged, 2.0 automatic and 0.5 add-on)

John Edwards picks up 6.5 pledged delegates.

However, 9 of Edwards 13 pledged delegates (now 4.5 of 6.5) have already pledged to go with Obama.

Obama's pick up is now 40.5 total delegates (38 pledged, 2.0 automatic, 0.5 add-on) and Edwards' pick up is now 2.5 pledged delegates

There remain 11 automatic delegates and 2 add-on delegates with 6.5 votes total among them from the State of Florida.

UBER RESULTS

The new number of total delegate votes at the convention is 4235.5 (4051 previously + 184.5 Michigan/Florida).

The new magic number to clinch the nomination is 2118.

The new number of pledged delegates is now 3409.5 (3253 previously + 156.5 Michigan/Florida)

The new magic number to clinch the pledged delegate majority is 1705.

With the addition of the Michigan and Florida delegates pledged and committed, Senator Obama currently has the following:

PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1728.5

1661 before today + 67.5 today (29.5 MI / 33.5FL / 4.5 Edwards) = 1728.5 pledged delegates.

With 1705 the new pledged delegate majority, Senator Obama still secures this pledged delegate majority metric.

SUPERDELEGATES (Automatic + Add-on): 329.5

323.5 before today + 6 today (3.5 MI / 2.5 FL) = 329.5 superdelegates (303 automatic + 26.5 add-on)

TOTAL DELEGATES: 2058

OBAMA needs 60 more total delegates to secure the nomination.

With a lock on at least 40 pledged delegates in South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico, Senator Obama will likely need 20 more automatic and add-on delegates to wrap up the nomination.

The numbers for Senator Clinton:

PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1587

1500 before today + 87 today = 1587 pledged

SUPERDELEGATES: 293.5

284.5 before today + 1 gained today + 8 MI/FL = 293.5 superdelegates (276.5 automatic + 17 add-on).

TOTAL DELEGATES: 1880.5

Senator Clinton needs 229.5 total delegates to secure the nomination.

What I Don't Get about This DNC Rules Committee and Michigan

The main argument from the Clinton campaign seems to be that the votes of Michigan and Florida need to be respected as they were cast on election day, never mind the voters that cast write-in ballots, and never mind the voting-eligible public that stayed home because they were informed that the Michigan election would be invalidated.

The Clinton camp is twisting logic, though. They want not only to have the entire vote from that day counted, but also the delegates attached to them.

The delegates are entirely separate from the vote. If Michigan was given 10 delegates, 100 delegates or 1000 delegates from their election, the breakdown of those delegates would be based on the vote breakdown. The number of delegates given to Michigan by the DNC is not sacred. However, the Clinton camp is using an implicit argument that there is a delegate to vote metric in play that should be honored. This implicit argument wants to use the popular vote measure as the sacred rule, then transfer that immutability to the delegate count as well, which obviously is not.

The number of delegates has nothing to do with the number of people voting. I showed this earlier with the contrast between Indiana and Missouri, in which 423,000 more people came out to vote in Indiana than in Missouri, but both states only got 72 delegates.

If the Clinton campaign is so interested in counting every vote, then the compromise is easy. Michigan's 128 pledged delegates should be halved to 64 pledged delegates, and those 64 delegates should be apportioned based on the vote in Michigan, so long as the uncommitted vote is dealt to Obama.

This would create a 36.5 - 27.5 split of pledged delegates, but still honor the votes that were counted.

What to do with the superdelegates? Halve their vote. The Clinton argument for using the actual vote from January to seat the pledged delegates does not transfer to the undemocratically selected superdelegates, who have seats based on political standing. Senator Clinton would have a tough time arguing that the spirit of democracry she is pursuing for the pledged delegates based on the actual vote applies to the backroom superdelegates.

Conclusion:

Give Michigan 64 full pledged delegates to allocated based on the vote of the day, thus preserving the spirit of the vote and the voters' "intent", no matter how flawed or incomplete that metric is.

Give Michigan 30 half-votes for its 30 superdelegates (28 automatic delegates + 2 add-on delegates), for 15 superdelegate votes.

Michigan's delegation would then be 79 total delegates: 64 whole pledged delegates and 15 (30 half-counted) superdelegates.

Simple, and it honors the Clinton "argument" about the will of the voter and the DNC Rules committee argument that the state, and not the voters, should be punished for its blatant disrespect of the DNC primary process. The right to vote will be honored, but there is no constitutional or sacred right that the delegates apportioned in the state should be kept the same by the very rules-maker that has the right to make the rules as the party sees fit.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Sophistry, Narcissism, Appeasement and the Clintons

While reading a Dick Morris article today ("The Clintons Just Have to Win") I was struck by how perfectly the term "sophistry" describes the Clintons' arguments which are oftentimes circular, relative and contradictory, designed solely to achieve an end, instead of promoting truth or wisdom.

Sophistry and sophistication both derive from the same Greek root Sophia or Sophos, both of which mean "wisdom" or "wise". However, both words now have a entirely different connotation--sophistry is derogatory and implies a devious, disingenuous or knowingly insincere form of argument to achieve some ends, while sophistication is complimentary and denotes a sense of culture and knowledge and advanced understanding.

Wikipedia offers a pretty good account of the evolution of the term "sophism" and "sophistry", detailing how the practice of the Sophists in ancient Greece turned into something detached from the true virtue of wisdom and knowledge, and into something more sinister:

Plato is largely responsible for the modern view of the "sophist" as a greedy instructor who uses rhetorical sleight-of-hand and ambiguities of language in order to deceive, or to support fallacious reasoning. In this view, the sophist is not concerned with truth and justice, but instead seeks power. Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle all challenged the philosophical foundations of sophism.


Ambiguities of language? "It depends on what the meaning of is is."

Rhetorical sleight of hand? "Even Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in 1984 and 1988." See this Daily Show clip to examine the ridiculousness of that argument:




Supporting Fallacious Reasoning? Hillary Clinton needs every single automatic superdelegate, add-on delegate and all six Edwards pledged delegates to reach the magic number of 2025.5 at this point in the campaign, yet she still has a "chance to win" if she can just get votes cast in Puerto Rico and South Dakota.

This campaign has shown plenty more examples of such sophistry to push a point on behalf of Senator Clinton's campaign:

  • From "We all know this election is not going to count for anything" to "Seat the Michigan/Florida delegation as is based on the election in those states".
  • Pushing a popular vote argument when the election is decided by delegates, after each state made a decision on their form of election with the implicit understanding that popular vote was not important
  • Arguing that caucus states are undemocratic when it was those very caucus states that helped give Bill Clinton the Democratic Nomination in 1992, and when no argument was made about them until she lost Iowa and other caucuses.
  • Embracing the "every vote must count" mantle despite openly campaiging to win the nomination by Super Tuesday and thus "disenfranchise" all states afterwards like Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina.
  • Telling the public that if they want a candidate that didn't vote for the Iraq war, they should vote for someone else, and then complaining that her lack of voter support is sexist when the voting public decides that they want an anti-war candidate for the Democratic nomination.
  • Claiming that her winning a state in the primary means that she will win it in the Fall and Obama cannot, even though both will win California, Massachussetts and New York (which she won) and Illinois and Hawaii (which he won), and even though there is no scientific link of causation involved with a primary win and a national election win.
  • Positing as her electability argument that the Democratic superdelegates should award her the nomination because she has more electoral votes than Obama in a hypothetical, poll-based matchup with John McCain six months before the November election, while simultaneously making the argument that a long drawn-out contentious primary doesn't hurt the party because Bill Clinton was able to move from third place in the polls in June of 1992 to winning it all in November.
  • Claiming that her remark about Bobby Kennedy being assassinated in June of 1968 is a good example of how a primary season went into June, when that primary started months later in the calendar than this year's primary and Kennedy had only been a candidate for three months.
  • And many more...

The Daily Show again provides a good-humored but eviscerating look into the dazzling, evolutionary sophistry of the Clinton's attempt to spin and to justify their minority stake of delegates into a majority stance of nomination:


All of this is crystallized nicely by today's Dick Morris article featured on TheHill.com:

In January 1998, right after The Washington Post revealed President Bill
Clinton’s relationship with Monica, I spoke with him about his predicament.
Shell-shocked and stunned at the calls for his impeachment, he knew he was
facing the fight of his life. At first, he was vintage Bill Clinton: maudlin,
sad and full of self-pity. But as we talked, he gradually changed his tone.
Admitting that he was not innocent, but recognizing his diminishing support, he
then told me defiantly: “Well, we’ll just have to win.”

Several years later, I was surprised to read in Sidney Blumenthal’s memoirs that then-first lady Hillary Clinton had used the exact same words on the exact same day in a conversation with the White House aide. “We’ll just have to win.”

That’s how the Clintons think — no matter what, they have to win. Winning is everything, and how you do it is not determined by any inner sense of values or ethics, but by a resolve to do whatever needs to be done, no more and certainly no less.

For the Clintons, the ends justify the means in this case. For the Clintons, it is easier to beg forgiveness afterwards than to seek permission beforehand.

Many have called the Clintons (or their behavior) "narcissistic"--and whether it is a personality defect or a calculated course of action, it is not difficult to see why this term applies.

From the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV), these are the Diagnostic Criteria for Narcissistic Personality Disorder:

A pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts, as indicated by five (or more) of the following:

(1) has a grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements)

(2) is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love

(3) believes that he or she is "special" and unique and can only be understood by,
or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions)

(4) requires excessive admiration

(5) has a sense of entitlement, i.e., unreasonable expectations of especially favorable
treatment or automatic compliance with his or her expectations

(6) is interpersonally exploitative, i.e., takes advantage of others to achieve his or
her own ends

(7) lacks empathy: is unwilling to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others

(8) is often envious of others or believes that others are envious of him or her

(9) shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes


Wow. Within the past year, you can see how the Clintons have exemplified multiple signs of narcissistic behavior:

  • Hillary Clinton's Bosnia exaggeration
  • The arrogance of the "inevitability argument"
  • The desire for the highest office in the land (again)
  • The argument that being First Lady in the White House and in Arkansas translates into 35 years of hard-earned experience to be President
  • The lack of empathy for Obama supporters and the Democratic Party being put through the end of this campaign with a hardening of racial and gender lines
  • The pervasive sense of entitlement that they deserve the Democratic Nomination
  • Taking advantage of latent racial tensions in the Democratic Party base to capture votes and find a supportive constituency
There are most likely more signs, but these stand out immediately. So now we have both sophistry and narcissism employed by the losing candidate in the Democratic Nomination process, yet somehow the DNC has allowed them to hold the nomination process and the presumptive nominee hostage as they have moved the goalposts relentlessly until an unlikely but more favorable outcome somehow emerges?

If the term "appeasement" had any application in this entire election, beyond the failed attempt by President Bush to use that term in the Knesset in a way that proved inconsistent with the actual historical meaning, it would be the DNC's treatment of Hillary Clinton.

No matter how many times the DNC acquiesces and gives in on a Clinton demand to keep them in the race, the Clintons keep pursuing the larger goal of winning the nomination despite the obvious collateral damage to the party.

When the Clintons talk about the popular vote as the decisive metric and harshly discount caucus states as "undemocratic", and the DNC does not act, they are appeasing Hillary Clinton's flagging campaign's need for a new metric to justify their candidacy.

When the Clintons blast the DNC for not approving the Michigan/Florida results when her own campaign staffer Harold Ickes voted to strip those two states of their delegates, and her other staffer Terry McAuliffe wrote profusely about how the potential sanctions facing Michigan in 2004 if they moved their primary up in the calendar were necessary because this movement would destroy the Democratic nominating process, and the DNC takes no action but lets her continue on her haphazard path to a nomination, this is appeasement.

By conceding seemingly innocuous and small half-truths and dissembled information to the Clinton campaign in the hopes that she'll be a "good sport" in the end, instead of drawing the line in the sand and telling her campaign that they are damaging the Democratic Party as an institution and as a viable party in 2008, the DNC appeases Hillary Clinton.

The lack of a party elder, a Churchill, to step in and end the sophistry, the narcissism and the appeasment of the Clintons has contributed greatly to the current state of affairs in the Democratic Primary, which may end with an otherwise formidable candidate in Barack Obama hamstrung by Clintonian whispers of an illegitimate victory and a suppression of support from Clinton's constituencies during the primary race.

While Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid may be able to step up and end the process before it goes to the Convention and restore a sense of order to the Party, it will take an elder to step up and restore a sense of morality and soul to the Party to counter the poison the Clintons have injected into the Democrats' bloodstream.

Al Gore is that elder, and it is my hope that he steps forward after June 3rd and declares the race over, restores the moral legitimacy of the contest and provides Barack Obama with the foundation and mended fences to mount his campaign for the White House.

If you need any sense of how Gore can do this, I suggest you (and the Clintons) watch the HBO movie Recount.

In the most poignant moment at the end of the movie, Ron Klain (Kevin Spacey) is on the phone with Vice President Al Gore the day after the Supreme Court decision with a plan to go after the Florida State Legislature's certification of the vote and awarding of the Electoral Votes. Gore says to Klain the very sophia that Klain gave to Gore during the contesting of the Florida vote: "Even if I win, I can't win."

Simply stated, the very actions, the sophistry, that Gore would have needed to make--trashing the Supreme Court's decision publicly, delegitimizing their importance, overturning the certification of Electoral Votes from Florida, filing lawsuits left and right, sending out surrogates on all the news channels, and dragging the country into a no-man's land of a leaderless future or threats of a shadow presidency--would have by their own weight destroyed any hope that Gore would have to govern the United States effectively, even if he was somehow successful and pulled it off.

Gore's sense of awareness of how his actions would affect the larger good for America shows a stark display of anti-narcissitic behavior that the Clintons should learn and learn quickly.

As the Gospel of Mark (8:36) admonishes, "What does it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, but lose his own soul?" In the present situation, perhaps this verse should read "What does it profit a candidate to gain the nomination, but destroy the party in the end?"

The scary thing is that this particular narcissist just might answer, "Everything, " because for the Clintons their actions can easily be seen within a win/win strategy: Either take the nomination this year, or damage Obama so much that a 2012 run becomes possible.

Two Texas Supers for Obama

Husband and Wife team Boyd and Bettie Richie have announced their endorsement of Senator Barack Obama.

Boyd Richie serves as the Texas Democratic Party Chairman and his wife is a DNC superdelegate for the state as well.

The announcement by Mr. Richie at this time bodes well for Senator Obama's prospects in gaining add-on delegates at the Texas state convention in June.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Bill Clinton's "Vote per Delegate" Metric Nonsense

Yesterday Bill Clinton made a specious, and rather Clintonian, argument that caucuses are somehow unfair because they reward more delegate votes on a per voter basis than do primaries. This argument is central to the Clintonian 'debate' that somehow a caucus is less democratic than a primary, and therefore Obama's delegate lead is a false representation of the ever-elusive "will of the people", whatever that means. (Democrats only? Independents?)


"And the party will have to decide whether they believe the caucuses --
where you get about one delegate for 2000 votes -- are more important than the primaries where you get one for 12,000"

--Bill Clinton


FLAW #1:

Slippery slope: If caucuses are less democratic than a closed primary, then is a closed primary less democratic than a semi-open primary? How about an open primary?

In Clintonian logic, closed primaries are less democratic than non-closed primaries, so therefore non-closed primaries should be given more weight.

I did the math on this one.

For closed primaries, Senator Clinton received 4,266,983 votes to Senator Obama's 3,854,032, for a Clinton margin of +412,951.

For non-closed primaries, (more democratic than caucuses for Clintonian logic), Senator Obama received 13,022,161 votes to Senator Clinton's 12,755,691, for an Obama margin of +266,470.

For purely open primaries, the most democratic possible primary of all according to the Clintons, Senator Obama received 3,601,593 votes to Senator Clinton's 2,984,625, for an Obama margin of +616,968.

According to this Clintonian logic, Senator Obama suffered in closed primaries, and even a bit in non-closed/non-open primaries, because they were simply not democratic enough, so those primaries should be thrown out and only the truest forms of democratic contests in these non-closed primary states should count.

FLAW #2:

The Clinton campaign wants to make the argument that Senator Clinton has received more votes in the primaries than Senator Obama, thus trying to make the argument that in more democratic election systems, she is the more popular candidate, and that Obama's wins in caucuses are therefore suspect and invalid.

Senator Clinton has received more votes in primaries, but as the above analysis shows, her margin of victory comes entirely from closed primaries. Senator Obama has beaten her in semi-closed/semi-open primaries and open primaries, which means that in all non-closed primaries, Senator Obama beat Senator Clinton as well.

Senator Clinton's argument about some forms of primary being more valid than other only applies to a closed primary system, which is the only form of primary that she has won so far (besides invalidated primaries).

Normally you don't make this type of argument where your position is not open-ended, but instead is flanked and undermined by just a slight bit more analysis.

So, let's get this straight for the record:

Based on results on each contest, from "least democratic" to "most democratic"...

CAUCUSES: Senator Obama wins

CLOSED PRIMARIES: Senator Clinton wins

SEMI-CLOSED/SEMI-OPEN PRIMARIES: Senator Obama wins

OPEN PRIMARIES: Senator Obama wins


It's rather funny how the Clintons don't qualify their argument that they mean only closed primaries, when an open primary better approximates a national election and the whole point of her argument is that she is more electable nationally. She is basing this argument off the notion that Obama only wins caucuses, but she wins primaries. Yet the more democratic a primary gets, the better Obama does. This information completely blows this premise out of the water.


FLAW #3:

President Clinton contends that it is unfair that a caucus grants a delegate per 2,000 votes, and a primary grants a delegate per 12,000 votes.

However, even within the same set of primaries--for example, open primaries--there still are major discrepancies in terms of delegate allocation per vote.

Let's take three of the open primaries: Indiana, Missouri and Alabama.

Indiana was awarded 72 delegates, Missouri 72, and Alabama 52.

Turnout? Indiana had 1,278,268 votes case, Missouri 825,208 and Alabama 536,279.

Votes per delegate awarded? Indiana = 17,754 v/d, Missouri 11,461 v/d, and Alabama 10,313 v/d.

Indiana had the same amount of delegates to award as Missouri, ran the same exact system of primary, and yet there was about a 6,300 vote per delegate difference between these two states with such similar set-ups. Indiana had over 7,400 more votes needed per delegate in contrast to Alabama, using the same open primary system.

Does this mean that Indiana's open primary was more democratic than Alabama's? Does this mean that Indiana's 72 delegates are worth more than Missouri's?

Interestingly enough, Indiana only contributed a 14,198 vote advantage for Clinton but gave her four more pledged delegates. Missouri only contributed a 11,732 vote advantage for Obama but he tied Clinton in pledged delegates from this contest. Alabama, however, went for Obama by about 67,000 votes and netted him two pledged delegates.

So a 14,198 vote margin for Clinton in Indiana gains her four delegates, but a 63,000 vote margin for Obama in Alabama gains him two delegates?

This might be crazy to consider, if one actually tries to make perfect sense of not only how each state contest is run, but also how delegates are awarded within each state based on performance by district and statewide. I posted a story earlier about this very detail in Indiana on how the vote there broke down into delegates.

The point here is simple. The attempt to link votes to delegates is insane, because even within the same form of primary contest, there will be major differences in the ratio between votes and delegates, based on all sorts of things like turnout, timing in the primary calendar, etc.

The seemingly simple argument by Clinton that a votes per delegate metric is important to consider is surprisingly complex to the point where the suggestion of such a ratio is illogical and unsuited for the primary contests.

This argument fails under its own weight when scrutinized.

FLAW #4:

The most egregious logical error is that the Clinton campaign's argument on this matter is purely a non-starter.

Each state chose the best form of primary system for its residents according to their democratically elected officials and party leaders. In order to accommodate the unique aspects of each state's primary elections, the DNC created the delegate system to create a common denominator by which each state could have an ordinal sense of rank based on population but a unique form of primary within its borders.

DailyKos and JedReport have featured articles on this before, but the logic is clear. Why on earth would the states of Missouri and Minnesota, both granted 72 delegates by the DNC, choose an open primary and an open caucus (respectively) for its method of allocating those delegates if in the end the popular vote would be reinserted as a weight by which to measure electability?

By virtue of the DNC allowing each state to select its own system of preference for divvying up the delegates it is awarded to the National Convention, each state's choice is inherently democratic and a reflection of the will of the people of that state through representative democracy. To backtrack and try to reconstitute the principles of the primary race in this manner is absurd on its face, even with the seeming clarion call to "democratic principles" of every vote should count ex post facto.

This argument after the rules were set and agreed upon, and the contest began, is as silly as arguing at the end of a basketball game that layups are only worth half a point, but three pointers are now worth five points, so I should have won because I only shot outside jumpers while you drove by me all game.

Strategy is based upon rules, and to change the rules after the fact is to undermine the very logic and strategy of winning the primary.

Sort of reminds me of this movie...

Which States Have the Most Remaining Superdelegates?

Most states' superdelegates have declared one way or the other at this point, but the states that still have a large number of superdelegates may be able to coalesce those votes for favors or large consideration at the Convention if they coordinate appropriately.

The following states have the highest number of superdelegates remaining form their delegation, including unnamed add-on delegates.
  • California: 14
  • Texas: 10 (includes 3 add-ons)
  • Ohio: 9
  • Maryland: 8
  • North Carolina: 7 (includes 2 add-ons)
  • Pennsylvania: 7 (includes 3 add-ons)
  • Tennessee: 7 (includes 1 add-on)
  • Virginia: 7 (includes 2 add-ons)
  • Louisiana: 6
  • Massachussetts: 6
  • Missouri: 6 (includes 1 add-on)
  • Montana: 5 (includes 1 add-on)
  • Nevada: 5 (includes 1 add-on)
  • Washington: 5 (includes 2 add-ons)

All other states have less than 5 remaining superdelegates.

There have been rumors that the California delegation would make a big move, whether from remaining superdelegates or from currently declared superdelegates for Clinton.

What has to be alarming to Senator Clinton is that so many of these superdelegates come from states that have gone for her, including Ohio, California, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. You would think that if there were undeclared Clinton supporters in this group, they would come out now instead of waiting to help the Clinton campaign at a moment of desperation. You have to wonder if there are Obama supporters in this mix that are in Clinton districts or conservative districts, and that an open declaration would jeopardize their future re-election efforts.

I'll do more analysis on this later.

Also, these states have no more superdelegates remaining (and thus no leverage):

Alaska

America Samoa

Democrats Abroad

Guam

Hawaii

Obama Gains Another WV Super

Despite the shellacking the Obama campaign suffered in the West Virginia primary, Senator Obama picked up yet another superdelegate from the Mountain State.

This time it's Congressman Alan B. Mollahan, who has served as a West Virginia Congressman for a quarter-century.

Mollahan's decision means that Obama has swept the four Congressional superdelegates from West Virginia, adding to the previous endorsements of Senators Rockefeller and Byrd and fellow Congressman Nick Rahall. Senator Clinton has received three endorsements from DNC automatic delegates. West Virginia has three more superdelegates remaining plus the add-on delegate to be decided at the June 14th State Convention.

Mollahan's statement read as follows:

“I believe Senator Obama will bring America a new era of trust, principled leadership and positive results. He has the intelligence, capacity and values that assure me he will confront the real issues that Americans face every day - health care, pension reform, energy prices, the struggling economy, and, of course, the issue of Iraq."

Clinton Gains Washington State Super

Eileen Macoll, a Washington superdelegate, has endorsed Senator Hillary Clinton.

Macoll is the DNC Vice Chairwoman for the Washington State Party. In her announcement she cited her view that Clinton still had a chance for the nomination, and that voting for a female candidate also played a role in her mindset. In a sign that this decision was more cosmetic than aggressive at this point of the race, Macoll also noted that she will support Obama 100% should he be named the Democratic Nominee.

Obama Closing in on 200 Total Delegate Lead

Gail Rasmussen's endorsement of Senator Obama puts him at a lead of 198 total delegates (1981.5 -- 1783.5) and 44 total delegates short of the 2025.5 nomination-clinching magic number, pending the results of Saturday's Rules Committee meeting that could determine the fate of the Florida/Michigan delegations.

Obama is projected to pick up at least 40 out of 86 pledged delegates from the remaining three contests in South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico. It is a near lock that Obama will have enough superdelegates to reach this number prior to the last contest on June 3rd.

Obama Gains another Oregon Superdelegate

This time it's Gail Rasmussen, the vice president of the Oregon Education Association.

She follows two other Oregonians from yesterday in supporting Obama, and makes it a 7-2 advantage in superdelegates for him, with three more superdelegates left to decide and an add-on delegate left to be named.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Examining the Logical Consistency of the Latest Clinton Rationale

I admit, my head is spinning a bit with all the 'angles' that the Clinton campaign is throwing out there as a diversion from the cold, hard numbers that show her campaign is near death.

This latest comment from Bill Clinton is another example of how what's logical in 1992 is no longer logical in 2008:

Hillary Clinton in her memo to the superdelegates (May 28, 2008):
"Recent polls and election results show a clear trend: I am ahead in states that
have been critical to victory in the past two elections," Clinton writes in a
letter to these superdelegates. "From Ohio, to Pennsylvania, to West Virginia
and beyond, the results of recent primaries in battleground states show that I
have strong support from the regions and demographics Democrats need to take
back the White House. I am also currently ahead of Senator McCain in Gallup national tracking polls, while Senator Obama is behind him. And nearly all independent analyses show that I am in a stronger position to win the Electoral College, primarily because I lead Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio."

So, according to Senator Clinton, being ahead in late May in the national tracking polls and in the electoral college against the Republican presumptive nominee is virtually immutable and shows who will win in November.

However, earlier in the campaign, references to the 1992 Democratic Primary were brought up many times by the Clinton campaign in response to complaints that a long drawn-out primary season would weaken the Democrats' ability to win in November.

Senator Clinton referenced the fact that her husband was behind both George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot in April/May of 1992, yet found a way to win in November of the same year despite this horrible starting position.

From her interview with Time Magazine on March 26, 2008:
I think the elections that are yet to come deserve to be held because the people
from Pennsylvania to Puerto Rico to all the others that are waiting in line
deserve to be heard. And I think that's part of the good. You know, I remind a
lot of people that my husband didn't formally wrap up the nomination until June and when he did he was behind both President Bush and Ross Perot. You know as well as anyone how dynamic elections are and how fluid they are, and I think that we're going to win in November and once we get our nominee chosen we're going to have a very vigorous campaign to make sure that happens.


The obvious implication?

Don't worry about Democratic Party unity or prospects in November in the face of such a grueling, drawn-out primary campaign season. It's ok that Senator Clinton continue her abrasive fight for the nomination despite the daunting delegate math that has given her the smallest of hope that she can overcome Obama. We'll all come together in the end and we can still win in November.

So, in the first instance, the relative poll positions in May for Senator Clinton and Senator Obama in relation to Senator McCain should be a top priority for Democratic leaders to consider when selecting the nominee.

However, in the second instance, Democratic leaders should ignore relative poll positions in May because those don't matter in the long run, because the Democrats will all come together and overtake the Republican nominee.

In the first instance, the current state of the 2008 race in May is static and will play out as such until November.

In the second instance, the state of the race in June 1992 for her husband was so fluid that being third in the polls was a minor trifle and inconsequential.

Which is it? Logical inconsistency at its best.

Another Oregonian for Obama

Oregon DNC automatic superdelegate Wayne Kinney has announced his support for Senator Obama.

From Kinney's press release:

Senator Obama wasn’t supposed to be able to get this far. One member of
Congress from Illinois said that for Sen. Obama to win the nomination, he’d have
to be perfect. He’s been pretty damned good. The fact that this nomination is
still inches from being decided is a testament to the abilities of both Sen.
Obama and Sen. Clinton.

While there are a few primaries left to go, it’s now over for Oregon. Sen. Obama won our state by almost 18 points. He is very close to winning a majority of the delegates he needs to be our nominee for President.

But there should be more to my decision than that. After all, we automatic, “super” delegates are not automatons. We are not here to ratify. We’re expected to use our judgment. Here’s mine: After watching Sen. Obama for more than a year, it’s clear that he offers an ability to lead and inspire that’s been sorely lacking in this country.
Senator Obama will win our nomination, and will be our President.

It felt good to write that sentence.

The Total Delegate Tracker


My apologies for the terrible format of the JPEG of my Delegate Tracker, which is the accompanying piece to my Clinton Matrix.

Click on the picture above to see the Delegate Tracker in more clarity, and you will find exactly how the delegate landscape looks from here on out.
The Magic Number is still 2025.5 total delegates to clinch the nomination, pending the results of the Michigan/Florida debate on Saturday.
At this point in the nomination race, given the projected allocation of pledged delegates in the remaining three contests (at a very conservative clip for Senator Obama), Senator Clinton would need to do the following to reach 2025.5:
  • Capture every single one of the 164 undeclared automatic superdelegates remaining
  • Capture every single one of the 34 unnamed/undeclared add-on delegates remaining
  • Capture at least one of the remaining 7 unclaimed Edwards delegates

There are no more delegates left for Senator Clinton to go after in this scenario, save an attempt to defect Obama superdelegates to her camp.

If a combination of seven more undeclared automatic superdelegates, unnamed/undeclared add-on delegates and unclaimed Edwards delegates announces for Obama, then Senator Clinton will be mathematically eliminated from reaching 2025.5 unless Obama suffers defections from his superdelegate total.

All of this analysis is rendered partially moot should the Michigan/Florida decision come back forcing Senator Obama to increase his superdelegate total by a larger margin to capture the nomination.


UPDATE: Another automatic superdelegate has declared for Senator Obama in the meantime, so Clinton now needs TWO Edwards delegates in addition to every single one of the remaining undeclared automatic delegates and the uncommitted add-on delegates to reach 2025.5.
It will be interesting to see if Obama can claim this new metric prior to Saturday. I'm betting he does.






Confirmation of Virgin Islands Super Double Defection

Earlier I posted that there had been rumors that Virgin Islands superdelegate Kevin Rodriguez was reported to have switched from Obama to Clinton, just a few weeks after switching from Clinton to Obama in the first place.

NBC News has now confirmed this defection, so I will now count it in the totals for Senators Clinton and Obama.

Three More Superdelegates for Obama

Over the past 24 hours, Senator Barack Obama has picked up the support of two state DNC Chairs and a Guam superdelegate.

Guam Senator Ben Pangelinan has endorsed Senator Obama, making him the final delegate from Guam to make his decision. Guam has four pledged delegates (in reality, eight pledged 1/2 delegates) and five automatic superdelegates. With Senator Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton splitting the four pledged delegates evenly and the prior four superdelegates, the announcement by Pangelinan gives Obama a 5-4 advantage among all total delegates from Guam.

In the aftermath of Senator Obama's strong victory in the Beaver State, Oregon state DNC Chair Meredith Wood Smith made public her endorsement of Obama in an op-ed piece that ran in the Oregonian today.
Why Obama? Because he received the majority of the votes in the Oregon primary,
and he demonstrates the leadership needed to get us out of Iraq, restore our
economy, begin the tough job of providing health care for all Americans and,
most of all, heal the divisions in our nation. His commitment to grass-roots
organizing, similar to Howard Dean's "Fifty State Strategy," will help Democrats
win our down-ticket races. His deep understanding of our Constitution ensures
that he will appoint judges, to both the Supreme Court and lower federal courts,
who will truly defend our constitutional rights and freedoms.

Colorado Democratic Chairwoman Pat Waak also chose to endorse Senator Obama today. Holding out until the votes were cast and the State Convention held, Waak chose to come out today with her support.

In an excerpt from the article, Waak cited three main reasons for her endorsement:

In a statement put out by the Obama campaign in which Waak cited his
"electability" in Colorado and the West, she gave three reasons for her support:
Obama's big victory in the Feb. 5 Colorado caucuses; that Obama's "message of
change" can beat Republican John McCain in November; and that the country needs
his "visionary, uplifting leadership."


Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Tim Russert Explains How Race Will End on June 4th

Why Obama Will Win the Nomination by June 15th

All along this site has proclaimed the power of the add-on delegates, and again it is the add-on delegates that are sealing the fate for Senator Clinton while the unpledged automatic delegates sit on the sidelines. Unlike the automatic delegates who are caught up in multiple levels of pressure in terms of which candidate they will endorse, the add-on delegates are typically selected exactly because of their stated preference for a candidate.

According to NBC News, Senator Obama is 48.5 total delegates away from reaching the nomination-clinching number of 2026 (pending results of the Michigan/Florida issue).

In the last three contests, there is a total of 84 pledged delegates remaining, with 31 in South Dakota and Montana, and 55 in Puerto Rico.

According to recent polls, Obama is expected to win handily in South Dakota and Montana. Given the proportional allocation rules and the very small number of pledged delegates in each of these two states, these Obama wins will result in a 9-7 and 8-7 split in the most likely scenario. This result would mean a 17-14 pledged delegate win in those two states.

Senator Clinton is favored in Puerto Rico, but again the proportional allocation rules will keep the pledged delegate differential at a modest number. Senator Clinton is expected to win between 30 and 35 pledged delegates from the commonwealth, which in turn would result in an expected pickup of 20-25 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Worst case scenario sees Senator Obama picking up a minimum of 37 pledged delegates in the remaining contests, leaving him 11.5 total delegates short of the magic number.

From now until June 15th, there will be 22 add-on delegates awarded during state conventions. The following states take action in the next three weeks, with blue states signifying Obama wins, red states signifying Clinton wins and green (Texas) signifying a split decision:
  • June 1: Maine (1)
  • June 7: Kentucky (1), Minnesota (2), Pennsylvania (3), Texas (3), Vermont (1), Mississippi (1)
  • June 8: Montana (1)
  • June 13: Wisconsin (2)
  • June 14: Idaho (1), Iowa (1), Virginia (2), West Virginia (1)
  • June 15: Washington (1)

Obama-states feature 13 add-on delegates, Clinton-states feature 5 add-on delegates, and Texas is a tie and has 3 add-on delegates.

Even among these states, the math doesn't help Clinton because Pennsylvania may cede an add-on delegate to Obama, as might Texas.

So, if each state holds true to form (and Obama's states were big wins for him there), then even without another automatic superdelegate making an endorsement, Obama will cross the 2026 threshold on June 14th when Virginia makes its two selections.

Of course, if Michigan and Florida are resolved in such a way that Senator Clinton is favored, Senator Obama will need to make up the difference with more automatic delegates announcing to overcome the deficit.

I like the theories abounding that allowing the pledged delegate wins on June 3rd be the decisive factor, if enough automatic delegates make up their minds right before then.

I think that perhaps the reason why there is not the expected "deluge" of automatic delegates for Obama yet is that they are being kept in reserve until the results of the Michigan/Florida compromise are known. There is still time between that decision and the June 3rd primaries to make such a large move that would allow Obama to go over the top on June 3rd if the automatic delegates are coordinated.

If the Michigan/Florida situation remains unresolved, and 2026 remains the magic number, then Obama is sure to hit it by June 15th.

The Clinton Matrix: May 27th Edition


THE CLINTON MATRIX

The end is nigh.

After the 4-1 pick up of add-on delegates over the weekend, plus the 4-pledged-delegate swing in Obama's favor, the Clinton Matrix is almost completely red, which indicates an impossible situation for Senator Clinton to gain the nomination (under the current 2025/2026 clinching number).

Keep in mind that this chart projects different outcomes with the pledged and add-on delegates, which follow their own rules, as opposed to the automatic delegates, which are unbounded. Senator Clinton will need to win every single uncommitted automatic delegate remaining even if she somehow were to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates (very unlikely) and 70% of the add-on delegates (near impossible). If somehow Clinton were to win 70% of both totals, she would still need 97% of the remaining automatic delegates to clinch, or 169/174 of this group.

For the entire grid to go red, Obama only needs to pick up 33 of the remaining pledged delegates, or 17 of the remaining add-on delegates, or some combination of 41 delegates from both the add-on and pledged totals.

Obama is on pace to pick up 17 pledged delegates in South Dakota and Montana, and at least 22 from Puerto Rico, which means that if he receives two more add-on delegates, or outperforms the weak total in Puerto Rico, he can effectively remove any hope for Clinton from any genuine or serious discussion of Clinton's chances to win the nomination.






Obama Gains Wyoming Super, but Clinton Steals Back Virgin Islands Defector

So far today, the net total of superdelegate endorsements is Clinton +1, Obama 0.

Obama gained the endorsement of Wyoming State Vice Chairwoman Nancy Drummond earlier today. Yet, this gain was negated when one of his superdelegates, Kevin Rodriguez, defected back to Hillary Clinton. Earlier this month Rodriguez had defected from Clinton to Obama.

Until we get confirmation from NBC News, I will not count this as an official defection, but I will keep track of this development.

Pledged Delegate Adjustments: Obama +2, Clinton -2

As we've seen in other states, sometimes as the final votes are calculated some adjustments are made as candidates surpass new threshold numbers which award a greater share of pledged delegates than previously reported. In other cases, the final tallies for pledged delegates is refined at the State Convention, depending upon turnout, which is based roughly on the results of the raw election totals during the statewide election contests held previously.

Most states (perhaps all but I'm not sure of this fact yet) have three forms of pledged delegates--district-level, at-large, and PLEOs (Party Leader/Elected Official).

The district level delegates are the majority of pledged delegates awarded, and they are assigned based on the election returns for each of the districts as designated by the state. For most states the districts are Congressional. Other states, like Texas, used state senatorial districts. Regardless, depending upon the number of delegates awarded to each district, each candidate earns a number of those delegates based upon what thresholds their vote percentage totals allots.

Both the at-large and PLEO pledged delegates are awarded based on statewide vote percentages. These delegates are the minority of pledged delegates awarded in each state contest.

According to NBC News, which is my preferred source for delegate updates, the final totals in Alaska and Colorado have been updated, and in each case, Obama has taken a pledged delegate away from Senator Clinton's total from the raw primary-day total.

These corrections result in a four-pledged-delegate swing in Obama's favor, and brings him two more delegates closer to clinching the nomination. If somehow the magic number of pledged delegate majority increases again as a result of a Michigan/Florida resolution, then these two extra delegates may come in handy for Senator Obama to reach that new number.

Two New Superdelegates Named in Hawai'i

In other action at the Hawai'i State Convention over the weekend, two of the state's automatic superdelegate spots on the Hawai'i delegation were up for grabs, going to the incoming State Chair and Vice-Chair.

Obama supporters Brian Schatz and Kari Luna were named to be State Chair and Vice-Chair, respectively. Both positions are considered automatic delegates to the National Convention and add to Senator Obama's superdelegate total.

Add-On Delegates from the Weekend: Obama 4, Clinton 1

The only real surprise here is that Senator Clinton managed to steal an add-on delegate from Georgia, a state which went heavily for Senator Obama.

Five add-on delegates were awarded during state conventions this past weekend in Alaska, Hawai'i, Wyoming and Georgia--all state Obama won by large margins.

In a slightly mild surprise, Senator Obama only won four of those five, winning the add-ons from Alaska, Hawai'i and Wyoming and splitting the two from Georgia with Senator Clinton.

In Alaska, former Governor Tony Knowles was elected by the State Convention as the add-on for the 49th state, according to the Anchorage Daily News.

Obama won Alaska 75%-25% in the earlier primary contest.

Wyoming named State Representative W. Patrick Goggles of Ethete as their add-on delegate. In yet another example of how State Chairs influence how the State's Add-On Delegates are selected, Goggles was the only name put forth by fellow Obama supporter and Wyoming State Chair John Millin.

Obama won Wyoming by a 61%-38% margin in March.

Hawai'i selected James Burns, a former Chief Judge of the State Intermediate Court of Appeals and Obama supporter, as their add-on delegate, according to the Honolulu Advertiser. Burns is the son of a former Governor, but his selection by the State Party was not a sure thing, as he won by only three votes at the convention. The following from the aforementioned article is of interest to read:

Burns described the youthful activism as a revolution and said he agrees with Obama's message of change. He said if his father — party icon and former governor — John Burns, could devote his life to politics, he could give some time to the party now that he is not on the bench.

The Burns campaign for superdelegate, however, was an example of the competition between the Obama and Clinton camps. Burns had a letter of endorsement from Obama and was thought to be the favorite, but Clinton supporters pushed for a comparable candidate, with Jennifer Goto Sabas, Inouye's chief of staff in Honolulu, finally stepping forward. The state central committee was forced to choose between Burns, whose family is legendary in party politics, and Sabas, the senior senator's
point person in the Islands. Burns won by three votes.

"I'm really not a politician," the retired judge told reporters afterward. "But I want to get involved in the party."


Obama won Hawai'i by a 76%-24% margin.

Georgia was afforded two add-on delegate slots, and in a mild surprise Senator Clinton was able to split the award and earned the selection of her State Director, Verna Cleveland. Senator Obama gained the selection of his supporter, State Party Secretary Stephen Leeds, for the second add-on delegate slot.

Obama won Georgia by a 67%-31% margin.