Arizona Congressman Harry Mitchell has endorsed Senator Obama, according to Demconwatch.
More details to come when they are available.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Three of Today's Five Add-Ons Named And Declared Already
Five Add-On Delegates are up for grabs today--one in Utah and two each in Ohio and Massachussetts.
As expected, the Utah Add-On Delegate, Kristi Cummings, has endorsed Obama.
The question today was how successful Obama would be in picking up add-on delegate support from the two states in which he lost by healthy margins.
In a pleasant surprise to the Obama campaign, Ohio add-on delegate and labor leader Dave Regan has thrown his lot in with the Obama camp.
In contrast, Massachussetts add-on delegate, Arthur Powell, has endorsed Clinton.
Two more add-ons are left to be named today--one each from Ohio and Massachussetts. the Obama camp has to be pleased that they are guaranteed two of the five so far, with the opportunity to pick up another add-on delegate on a day they were expected to go 1-4.
As expected, the Utah Add-On Delegate, Kristi Cummings, has endorsed Obama.
The question today was how successful Obama would be in picking up add-on delegate support from the two states in which he lost by healthy margins.
In a pleasant surprise to the Obama campaign, Ohio add-on delegate and labor leader Dave Regan has thrown his lot in with the Obama camp.
In contrast, Massachussetts add-on delegate, Arthur Powell, has endorsed Clinton.
Two more add-ons are left to be named today--one each from Ohio and Massachussetts. the Obama camp has to be pleased that they are guaranteed two of the five so far, with the opportunity to pick up another add-on delegate on a day they were expected to go 1-4.
Two Virgin Islands Supers Defect to Obama
Representing a net loss of four superdelegates for her campaign, Senator Clinton suffered the defection of two superdelegates from the Virgin Islands to Senator Obama. Carole Burke and Kevin Rodriquez had previously supported Clinton despite the large victory for Obama in the Virgin Islands primary.
Friday, May 9, 2008
Another Superdelegate for Clinton?
FirstRead is reporting that Texas Congressman Ciro Rodriguez has endorsed Senator Clinton just now.
I'm not sure if this is a "new" superdelegate, an "adjusted" superdelegate or what. When NBC verifies in more detail I'll add it here.
This would make the count 9-1 for Obama today, if you count Watkins for Obama and Rodriguez for Clinton.
I'm not sure if this is a "new" superdelegate, an "adjusted" superdelegate or what. When NBC verifies in more detail I'll add it here.
This would make the count 9-1 for Obama today, if you count Watkins for Obama and Rodriguez for Clinton.
Superdelegate Defections
Demconwatch has a great post on the superdelegates that have switched from Clinton to Obama during this campaign.
The number is currently nine.
The number is currently nine.
Here's the complete list of superdelegate switches from Clinton to
Obama:
May 9 - Rep. Donald Payne (NJ)
May 7 - DNC Jennifer McClellan (VA)
May 1 - DNC Joe Andrew (IN)
Feb 27 - Rep. John Lewis (GA)
Feb 27 - DNC Senfronia Thompson (TX)
Feb 20 - DNC Dana Redd (NJ)
Feb 15 - DNC Sarah Swisher (IA)
Feb 14 - DNC Christine "Roz" Samuels (NJ)
Feb 14- Switched Rep. David Scott (GA) from Clinton to Obama--From Demconwatch.blogspot.com
Another Superdelegate for Obama??
Wow. Today has been a pretty exciting one for this blog, as superdelegates are flying off the shelf.
Ben Smith at Politico.com is reporting that Joe Johnson, a DNC Superdelegate from Virginia, has also announced his support for Obama. I'll have to keep track of this one as he may already be counted for Obama on NBC News.
Ben Smith at Politico.com is reporting that Joe Johnson, a DNC Superdelegate from Virginia, has also announced his support for Obama. I'll have to keep track of this one as he may already be counted for Obama on NBC News.
Clinton Superdelegate Total Adjusted +3
Since we're using NBC News as our source for superdelegate decisions, and because confirming every superdelegate accurately is not always accomplished by each news source in the same manner, sometimes adjustments are necessary.
Last time NBC News made the mistake of giving Democrats Abroad superdelegates a full vote, instead of the half-vote they are awarded.
This time, upon conferring with the Clinton campaign, NBC News is reporting that they undercounted the Clinton superdelegate total by three.
Normally this type of movement would not raise eyebrows, but one has to wonder if the timing of this announcement, on a day when Clinton saw Obama gain 7 new superdelegates and her campaign net zero (+1, -1), that this reconciliation of superdelegate totals was pushed to blunt the advantage Obama had received today.
You have to think the Clinton campaign's delegate counters would be aware of a major news source's superdelegate numbers not being 100% accurate to their detriment. The only thing equal to rolling out three new superdelegates is to adjust your count by three to achieve the same effect, in essence.
This is not good or bad, just an interesting point about the timing of this correction.
I don't agree with the NBC News assertion that the superdelegate yield since Indiana/North Carolina should then be altered to read: Obama 13, Clinton 4. This gives a false sense of "momentum" that Clinton did not earn. The real count is 13-1 since North Carolina, with Clinton's lead in superdelegates being three greater at that time.
The NBC NEWS delegate counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Clinton 276.5, Obama 269
TOTAL: Obama 1,859, Clinton 1,702.5.
Obama leads by 156.5 total delegates.
Last time NBC News made the mistake of giving Democrats Abroad superdelegates a full vote, instead of the half-vote they are awarded.
This time, upon conferring with the Clinton campaign, NBC News is reporting that they undercounted the Clinton superdelegate total by three.
Normally this type of movement would not raise eyebrows, but one has to wonder if the timing of this announcement, on a day when Clinton saw Obama gain 7 new superdelegates and her campaign net zero (+1, -1), that this reconciliation of superdelegate totals was pushed to blunt the advantage Obama had received today.
You have to think the Clinton campaign's delegate counters would be aware of a major news source's superdelegate numbers not being 100% accurate to their detriment. The only thing equal to rolling out three new superdelegates is to adjust your count by three to achieve the same effect, in essence.
This is not good or bad, just an interesting point about the timing of this correction.
I don't agree with the NBC News assertion that the superdelegate yield since Indiana/North Carolina should then be altered to read: Obama 13, Clinton 4. This gives a false sense of "momentum" that Clinton did not earn. The real count is 13-1 since North Carolina, with Clinton's lead in superdelegates being three greater at that time.
The NBC NEWS delegate counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Clinton 276.5, Obama 269
TOTAL: Obama 1,859, Clinton 1,702.5.
Obama leads by 156.5 total delegates.
An Add-On, a Congresswoman and an Automatic DNC Superdelegate Announce for Obama
Yet another three superdelegates made their choices known today, officially endorsing Senator Barack Obama.
The first endorsement came when Laurie Weahkee announced that she would endorse Obama. Weahkee is the Add-On Delegate from New Mexico. You may recall that she was vehemently opposed for selection by the pro-Clinton state party delegates because of their fear that her undeclared status was a front for a secret Obama vote. New Mexico was won by Senator Clinton (barely) and the pro-Clinton state delegates felt that there should be a pro-Clinton Add-On selected.
I also noted earlier that the person that put forth Weahkee's nomination for the spot, New Mexico Party Chair Brian Colon, was undeclared when he made this decision, but when he announced his support for Obama, that it could be an indicator of how Weahkee would vote as well:
"If you recall, the Clinton campaign argued vociferously against this appointment, even though she was appointed as an 'undeclared' add-on delegate. Maybe the Clinton camp knew how Colon was leaning and that Weahkee was a stealth Obama delegate?"
Also, when Kalyn Free, a DNC superdelegate from Oklahoma and a fellow Native American involved in the INDN, announced her support for Obama, I also thought it might be an indicator of how Weahkee might lean, especially given Weahkee's interest in giving her vote to the candidate with the best plan for Native American interests.
However, according to Weahkee, she says she was truly "undecided" when selected as the Add-On Delegate for New Mexico:
Obama had received the support of New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman two weeks ago, and with Weahkee's endorsement, that leaves Congressman Tom Udall as the long undeclared New Mexico superdelegate. Clinton has received support from six of the 12 New Mexico superdelegates, while Obama now has the endorsement of five.
The second endorsement for Senator Obama comes from a DNC Superdelegate from South Carolina, Wilber Lee Jeffcoat. Jeffcoat is the Vice Chair of the State Democratic Party, a state in which Senator Obama overwhelmingly beat Senator Clinton and former Senator Edwards.
The third endorsement of this group comes from Hawaii Congresswoman Mazie Hirono. Hirono endorsed Obama today, citing his deep roots to Hawaii and the need to unify the Democratic Party.
The first endorsement came when Laurie Weahkee announced that she would endorse Obama. Weahkee is the Add-On Delegate from New Mexico. You may recall that she was vehemently opposed for selection by the pro-Clinton state party delegates because of their fear that her undeclared status was a front for a secret Obama vote. New Mexico was won by Senator Clinton (barely) and the pro-Clinton state delegates felt that there should be a pro-Clinton Add-On selected.
I also noted earlier that the person that put forth Weahkee's nomination for the spot, New Mexico Party Chair Brian Colon, was undeclared when he made this decision, but when he announced his support for Obama, that it could be an indicator of how Weahkee would vote as well:
"If you recall, the Clinton campaign argued vociferously against this appointment, even though she was appointed as an 'undeclared' add-on delegate. Maybe the Clinton camp knew how Colon was leaning and that Weahkee was a stealth Obama delegate?"
Also, when Kalyn Free, a DNC superdelegate from Oklahoma and a fellow Native American involved in the INDN, announced her support for Obama, I also thought it might be an indicator of how Weahkee might lean, especially given Weahkee's interest in giving her vote to the candidate with the best plan for Native American interests.
However, according to Weahkee, she says she was truly "undecided" when selected as the Add-On Delegate for New Mexico:
NMI: Were you truly undecided when you were recently elected by the State Central Committee of the state Democratic Party on April 26 -- or were you leaning toward Obama then?
LW: I really was undecided. Even with in my own family we've been having debates about which candidate to support. And so, at that point in time I was really undecided. I understand it's a high stakes situation, but I was a little disappointed by the aggressive tone of the New Mexico Clinton campaign to challenge my selection as a delegate, because I really was at that time undecided. The aggressive tone from folks here locally just added into the my overall sense that the Clinton campaign was really aggressive. It was disappointing. I was truly undecided and they were already putting me in one camp or another. I just felt it was a bad representation on Hillary Clinton and her overall campaign.
Obama had received the support of New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman two weeks ago, and with Weahkee's endorsement, that leaves Congressman Tom Udall as the long undeclared New Mexico superdelegate. Clinton has received support from six of the 12 New Mexico superdelegates, while Obama now has the endorsement of five.
The second endorsement for Senator Obama comes from a DNC Superdelegate from South Carolina, Wilber Lee Jeffcoat. Jeffcoat is the Vice Chair of the State Democratic Party, a state in which Senator Obama overwhelmingly beat Senator Clinton and former Senator Edwards.
The third endorsement of this group comes from Hawaii Congresswoman Mazie Hirono. Hirono endorsed Obama today, citing his deep roots to Hawaii and the need to unify the Democratic Party.
And Another Superdelegate for Obama
Vernon Watkins, a DNC superdelegate from California, has also announced his support for Senator Obama today.
Update: Watkins was already considered a superdelegate in support of Obama, per NBC News. This announcement will not alter the tally we currently are using, sourced by NBC.
Update: Watkins was already considered a superdelegate in support of Obama, per NBC News. This announcement will not alter the tally we currently are using, sourced by NBC.
Utah Will Announce Add-On Delegate Today--Most Likely an Obama Supporter
A tip of the cap to DemConWatch for linking this article, which describes how the newly elected State Chair (and Obama superdelegate) Wayne Holland will ensure that an Obama supporter is selected as the state's add-on delegate.
Utah selects its add-on delegate today at its State Convention.
Update: Utah's Convention is today and tomorrow. By the look of the schedule it looks like the selection of the add-on may not take place until tomorrow.
Utah selects its add-on delegate today at its State Convention.
Update: Utah's Convention is today and tomorrow. By the look of the schedule it looks like the selection of the add-on may not take place until tomorrow.
Two More Superdelegates Announce for Obama
Ed Espinoza, the previously anonymous author of the Mr. Super website, and previously undeclared DNC superdelegate from California, has announced that he will endorse Senator Obama today.
John Gage, a DNC superdelegate and also the President of the American Federation of Government Employees, has also endorsed Senator Obama and pledged his union's support for the candidate.
This makes it 4-0 for Obama over Clinton today. Clinton did pick up a new superdelegate but lost one to Obama.
Obama now stands just 7.5 superdelegates behind Clinton in this race. Clinton led by nearly 100 superdelegates over Obama on Super Tuesday but since then has witnessed a steady erosion of that lead.
John Gage, a DNC superdelegate and also the President of the American Federation of Government Employees, has also endorsed Senator Obama and pledged his union's support for the candidate.
This makes it 4-0 for Obama over Clinton today. Clinton did pick up a new superdelegate but lost one to Obama.
Obama now stands just 7.5 superdelegates behind Clinton in this race. Clinton led by nearly 100 superdelegates over Obama on Super Tuesday but since then has witnessed a steady erosion of that lead.
Obama and Clinton Pick up a New Superdelegate, but Obama also Takes a Clinton Defector
In advance of the Oregon Primary, Congressman Peter DeFazio has annoucned his endorsement of Senator Obama, citing Obama as the Democrats' "best chance of winning in November."
Similarly, New Jersey Congressman Donald Payne has endorsed Obama, but as a previously committed superdelegate for Clinton, his move serves as yet another defection from the Clinton campaign.
Making up for the loss of Payne, Clinton announced the endorsement of Congressman Chris Carney of Pennsylvania. Carney had said previously that he would endorse the winner of his district. This marks the third superdelegate (Shuler and Ellsworth) that have thrown their support to Clinton based on an external metric: performance in their district.
There is still a dispute over whether Ellsworth actually committed to Clinton or not, but for now he counts as a Clinton superdelegate.
Today (so far) marks a net +2 for Obama, who extends his lead over Clinton to 154.5 overall (1854-1699.5) and cuts Clinton's lead in superdelegates to 9.5.
Similarly, New Jersey Congressman Donald Payne has endorsed Obama, but as a previously committed superdelegate for Clinton, his move serves as yet another defection from the Clinton campaign.
Making up for the loss of Payne, Clinton announced the endorsement of Congressman Chris Carney of Pennsylvania. Carney had said previously that he would endorse the winner of his district. This marks the third superdelegate (Shuler and Ellsworth) that have thrown their support to Clinton based on an external metric: performance in their district.
There is still a dispute over whether Ellsworth actually committed to Clinton or not, but for now he counts as a Clinton superdelegate.
Today (so far) marks a net +2 for Obama, who extends his lead over Clinton to 154.5 overall (1854-1699.5) and cuts Clinton's lead in superdelegates to 9.5.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Obama Picks Up Another Two Congressional Superdelegates
Today, two more superdelegates announced their support for Senator Obama.
North Carolina congressman Brad Miller announced that he has endorsed the Illinois senator.
Washington congressman Rick Larsen also declared his support for Obama.
Senator Obama has now cut Senator Clinton's lead in superdelegates to 11.5. Obama's overall lead has stretched to 152.5 (1852-1699.5).
Obama needs 173 more delegates total to clinch the nomination. There are 259.5 undeclared superdelegates remaining, and 224 pledged delegates left to be allocated.
North Carolina congressman Brad Miller announced that he has endorsed the Illinois senator.
Washington congressman Rick Larsen also declared his support for Obama.
Senator Obama has now cut Senator Clinton's lead in superdelegates to 11.5. Obama's overall lead has stretched to 152.5 (1852-1699.5).
Obama needs 173 more delegates total to clinch the nomination. There are 259.5 undeclared superdelegates remaining, and 224 pledged delegates left to be allocated.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
The Clinton Matrix: Post May 6th Edition
As a result of the primary results yesterday (although 7 delegates unallocated still) and the superdelegate movement today, there has been a seismic shift in the possibilities in play for Senator Clinton to still reach 2025 and win the nomination.
The center squares have indicated a range of options that are most probable for Senator Clinton to achieve, given the unlikelihood of the add-on delegates or pledged delegates breaking hard for either candidate, unless that candidate was Barack Obama. The outer rings were possible, but unlikely, given the reality of proportional allocation of pledged delegates and state-by-state insulated decisions for add-ons.
Currently, no option exists for Senator Clinton if she only wins half of the 224 pledged delegates remaining, as there will be fewer superdelegates remaining than the number she needs to reach 2025.
If she manages to win 55% of the remaining pledged delegates, which would require a highly unlikely 123-101 split between her and Senator Obama, she still needs to garner at least 55% of the add-on delegate total to stay mathematically alive to capture the remaining superdelegates in a range between 98% and 100%.
Winning 55% of the add-on delegates would require her to beat Senator Obama at least 30-24 in a process where he should end up with a majority of add-on delegates.
If just two more superdelegates announce for Obama, then Clinton will need a 60% pickup in either pledged or add-ons just to remain alive.
At this point the only realistic chance Clinton has is a double whammy of a Michigan/Florida seating that cuts into Obama's pledged delegate lead, plus an event to force a major drop in the polls for Obama to increase her future pledged delegate lead, plus allow the superdelegates to break for her at an alarming clip.
The mainstream media are using numbers like 70% as the number of superdelegates needed for her to capture the nomination.
The reality is that Clinton will need 90% or better in even a highly charitable scenario.
As I've explained earlier, the add-on delegate situation is extremely important to consider, and entirely separate, from the undeclared superdelegates on the Hill or in the DNC. This block of unpledged delegate votes represents 1/5th of the remaining total unpledged votes.
Superdelegate Updates! Obama +3, Clinton +1
OBAMA:
The Obama Campaign released the names of four new superdelegates today, although one of them was leaked yesterday in the run-up to the vote counting in Indiana and North Carolina.
North Carolina Democratic Chair Jerry Meek and California DNC Superdelegate Inola Henry are both new superdelegates for Obama.
North Carolina DNC Superdelegate Jeanette Council was considered an Obama superdelegate after word leaked yesterday that she was going to support the Illinois Senator.
In another blow to the Clinton Campaign, the fourth superdelegate announced today for the Obama campaign comes from a superdelegate previously pledged to Senator Clinton. In a scene reminiscent of the Joe Andrew defection last week, Jennifer McClellan, a DNC superdelegate from Virginia, made public her switch from Clinton to Obama.
CLINTON:
For Senator Clinton, another superdelegate has made his intentions known in her favor. Indiana congressmember Brad Ellsworth has reportedly followed through with his earlier intentions to support the candidate of his constituents, as Senator Clinton won both his district and the state.
So far today, Obama has picked up four superdelegates, although only three are "new", while Clinton nets one superdelegate, as the McClellan defection negates one of her two gains today.
Result:
Obama's lead is now 152.5 Total Delegates, and he is only 177 Total Delegates away from clinching the nomination.
Clinton still leads Obama in unpledged (super + add-on) delegates, with a total of 273.5 - 260.
The Obama Campaign released the names of four new superdelegates today, although one of them was leaked yesterday in the run-up to the vote counting in Indiana and North Carolina.
North Carolina Democratic Chair Jerry Meek and California DNC Superdelegate Inola Henry are both new superdelegates for Obama.
North Carolina DNC Superdelegate Jeanette Council was considered an Obama superdelegate after word leaked yesterday that she was going to support the Illinois Senator.
In another blow to the Clinton Campaign, the fourth superdelegate announced today for the Obama campaign comes from a superdelegate previously pledged to Senator Clinton. In a scene reminiscent of the Joe Andrew defection last week, Jennifer McClellan, a DNC superdelegate from Virginia, made public her switch from Clinton to Obama.
CLINTON:
For Senator Clinton, another superdelegate has made his intentions known in her favor. Indiana congressmember Brad Ellsworth has reportedly followed through with his earlier intentions to support the candidate of his constituents, as Senator Clinton won both his district and the state.
So far today, Obama has picked up four superdelegates, although only three are "new", while Clinton nets one superdelegate, as the McClellan defection negates one of her two gains today.
Result:
Obama's lead is now 152.5 Total Delegates, and he is only 177 Total Delegates away from clinching the nomination.
Clinton still leads Obama in unpledged (super + add-on) delegates, with a total of 273.5 - 260.
Upcoming Add-On Delegate Schedule: 5 to Be Named by Saturday
Just a quick update thrown your way from Demconwatch:
May 9th: Utah -- 1 add-on
May 10th: Massachussetts -- 2 add-ons
May 10th: Ohio -- 2 add-ons
Utah most likely will go to Obama since he won that state overwhelmingly, 57% - 39%. The add-on is selected by the district-level delegates, which Obama won.
Prediction: +1 for Obama
Massachussetts went strong for Clinton, but the State Party machine is pro-Obama. This could be a mirror image of Maryland, where the vice versa situation resulted in a split of the two add-ons.
Prediction: +1 for Obama, +1 for Clinton
Ohio went to Clinton by 10 points, and she has the Governor and much of the state party machinery behind her. The State Executive Committee decides here.
Prediction: +2 for Clinton
May 9th: Utah -- 1 add-on
May 10th: Massachussetts -- 2 add-ons
May 10th: Ohio -- 2 add-ons
Utah most likely will go to Obama since he won that state overwhelmingly, 57% - 39%. The add-on is selected by the district-level delegates, which Obama won.
Prediction: +1 for Obama
Massachussetts went strong for Clinton, but the State Party machine is pro-Obama. This could be a mirror image of Maryland, where the vice versa situation resulted in a split of the two add-ons.
Prediction: +1 for Obama, +1 for Clinton
Ohio went to Clinton by 10 points, and she has the Governor and much of the state party machinery behind her. The State Executive Committee decides here.
Prediction: +2 for Clinton
Four Superdelegates to Announce for Obama Later Today
This, per the AP news wire.
"Barack Obama pocketed the support of at least four Democratic convention superdelegates on Wednesday, building on the momentum from a convincing North Carolina primary victory."
More to come when the announcements are made.
"Barack Obama pocketed the support of at least four Democratic convention superdelegates on Wednesday, building on the momentum from a convincing North Carolina primary victory."
More to come when the announcements are made.
Delegate Update for May 6, 2008
In the aftermath of last night's election and the announcement of Congressman Shuler for Senator Clinton, it's time to update the delegate math.
Obama has a lead of 166 pledged delegates: 1688 - 1522.
Clinton has a lead of 17.5 superdelegates (add-on + super): 273.5 - 256
Obama has an overall lead of 148.5 total delegates: 1844 - 1695.5
Pledged Delegates Remaining: 217
Undeclared/Unnamed Add-On Delegates Remaining: 54
Undeclared *Automatic* Delegates Remaining: 211.5
*i.e. superdelegates minus add-on delegates
N.B. These totals were adjusted because the source, NBC News, had counted superdelegates from the Democrats Abroad pool as one delegate vote, instead of a half-delegate vote as designated for the National Convention.
Obama has a lead of 166 pledged delegates: 1688 - 1522.
Clinton has a lead of 17.5 superdelegates (add-on + super): 273.5 - 256
Obama has an overall lead of 148.5 total delegates: 1844 - 1695.5
Pledged Delegates Remaining: 217
Undeclared/Unnamed Add-On Delegates Remaining: 54
Undeclared *Automatic* Delegates Remaining: 211.5
*i.e. superdelegates minus add-on delegates
N.B. These totals were adjusted because the source, NBC News, had counted superdelegates from the Democrats Abroad pool as one delegate vote, instead of a half-delegate vote as designated for the National Convention.
Unpledged Delegates > Pledged Delegates
As others have noted here and here, the fundamentals of this delegate race have changed with there now being more unpledged delegates (266.5) available than pledged delegates (217).
It is at this time I believe the "Clinton Matrix" I've been publishing will be an even more important point of view. One of the inanities of the press coverage of this race is the total refusal to declare the pledged delegate race over, except for times like this, when Chuck Todd made the declaration. Now that the pledged delegates are few and far between, the focus on the superdelegates remaining will become the storyline from here on out.
It is at this time I believe the "Clinton Matrix" I've been publishing will be an even more important point of view. One of the inanities of the press coverage of this race is the total refusal to declare the pledged delegate race over, except for times like this, when Chuck Todd made the declaration. Now that the pledged delegates are few and far between, the focus on the superdelegates remaining will become the storyline from here on out.
Clinton Likely to Gain Endorsement from NC Congressman Shuler
In the past few days it was reported that former President Bill Clinton had met with and attended church with North Carolina Congressman Heath Shuler. As a result of these efforts, Congressman Shuler announced that he would support the winner of his district:
Congressman Shuler's district includes these counties in North Carolina (with the vote margins):
Congressman Shuler's district includes these counties in North Carolina (with the vote margins):
- Cherokee (C: +1558)
- Graham (C: +736)
- Clay (C: +802)
- Macon (C: +1916)
- Swain (C: +1088)
- Jackson (C: +1893)
- Haywood (C: +4792)
- Transylvania (C: +482)
- Madison (C: +1133)
- Buncombe (O: +5609)
- Henderson (C: +2481)
- Polk (C: +323)
- McDowell (C: +2683)
- Yancey (C: +1572)
Overall, Senator Clinton carried this District by 15,850 votes (67534-51684), and by a margin of 55.7% to 42.7%. No Preference carried 1.6% of the vote.
Congressman Shuler's announcement will give Senator Clinton another superdelegate and pull her even with Senator Obama in endorsements from Congressmembers.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Is the Pledged Delegate Race Over?
According to Slate.com, it is.
With the very easy assumption that Senator Obama will gain viability in each of the remaining contests (15%), Senator Obama is projected to finish the pledged delegate race with a lead of 1630.5 to 1612.5. That's an absolute worst case scenario for Obama. It's likely he'd gain those many votes even if he decided to quit the race at this point!
Even giving Clinton a 75-25 margin of victory in her three likely victories (West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico) and a 60-40 victory in her three likely losses (Oregon, South Dakota and Montana), she still is projected to finish behind Obama by a count of 1655.5 to 1577.5 (margin: 78 pledged delegates).
How about if she beats Obama by 30 points in her likely states and ties him in his likely states? She finishes behind by 132 pledged delegates at that point.
Simple point: Obama will cross the magic number of 1627 on May 20th. Clinton has no chance to overtake Obama in the pledged delegate race unless somehow Michigan and Florida were given amnesty (which would require an Obama campaign blessing) and she outperformed the projections in each of the remaining states.
It will be interesting to see the Clinton Matrix for tomorrow with these results.
With the very easy assumption that Senator Obama will gain viability in each of the remaining contests (15%), Senator Obama is projected to finish the pledged delegate race with a lead of 1630.5 to 1612.5. That's an absolute worst case scenario for Obama. It's likely he'd gain those many votes even if he decided to quit the race at this point!
Even giving Clinton a 75-25 margin of victory in her three likely victories (West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico) and a 60-40 victory in her three likely losses (Oregon, South Dakota and Montana), she still is projected to finish behind Obama by a count of 1655.5 to 1577.5 (margin: 78 pledged delegates).
How about if she beats Obama by 30 points in her likely states and ties him in his likely states? She finishes behind by 132 pledged delegates at that point.
Simple point: Obama will cross the magic number of 1627 on May 20th. Clinton has no chance to overtake Obama in the pledged delegate race unless somehow Michigan and Florida were given amnesty (which would require an Obama campaign blessing) and she outperformed the projections in each of the remaining states.
It will be interesting to see the Clinton Matrix for tomorrow with these results.
Preliminary Delegate Results from NC, IN Primaries
Well, it's finally official.
Obama wins North Carolina by 14 points.
Clinton wins Indiana by 2 points.
What does that mean for pledged delegates?
Obama is expected to net between 16 and 18 pledged delegates in North Carolina.
Clinton is expected to net between 4 and 8 pledged delegates in Indiana.
Best case scenario for Obama shows a net gain of 14 pledged delegates (94-80) and the best case scenario for Clinton shows a net loss of 8 pledged delegates (83-91).
It appears that Senator Obama will have recouped the delegates he lost in Pennsylvania, extending his pledged delegate lead from 1492-1338 (154 pledged delegate margin) to approximately 1586-1418 (172 pledged delegate margin).
More in the morning when delegate totals become official.
Obama wins North Carolina by 14 points.
Clinton wins Indiana by 2 points.
What does that mean for pledged delegates?
Obama is expected to net between 16 and 18 pledged delegates in North Carolina.
Clinton is expected to net between 4 and 8 pledged delegates in Indiana.
Best case scenario for Obama shows a net gain of 14 pledged delegates (94-80) and the best case scenario for Clinton shows a net loss of 8 pledged delegates (83-91).
It appears that Senator Obama will have recouped the delegates he lost in Pennsylvania, extending his pledged delegate lead from 1492-1338 (154 pledged delegate margin) to approximately 1586-1418 (172 pledged delegate margin).
More in the morning when delegate totals become official.
North Carolina Superdelegate Endorses Obama
Jeanette Council, a DNC superdelegate from North Carolina, announced today that she is supporting Senator Obama. (Tip of the hat to Ben Smith at Politico.com)
This announcement took place just before the polls closed.
Besides giving Obama yet another superdelegate to cut into Senator Clinton's lead, might this endorsement portend a deluge of superdelegates from North Carolina itching to support Senator Obama once the results are official tonight?
This announcement took place just before the polls closed.
Besides giving Obama yet another superdelegate to cut into Senator Clinton's lead, might this endorsement portend a deluge of superdelegates from North Carolina itching to support Senator Obama once the results are official tonight?
Monday, May 5, 2008
The Clinton Nomination Matrix: May 5th Edition
I have changed the format of this matrix a little bit.First, I have updated all the numbers so that the add-on delegates remaining to be won, and the pledged delegates remaining to be won, are accurate.
There are 48 add-on delegates to be named, and 6 add-on delegates left undeclared, so there are officially 54 add-on delegates that have not made a decision yet.
Also, the four Guam pledged delegates are now off the board, bringing down the number of pledged delegates to 404. After tomorrow's Indiana and North Carolina primaries I will revise these numbers.
As a result, the clean, neat projections of a 50/50 split between Obama and Clinton for each of these categories now becomes more nuanced, as different states come off the board for both pledged delegates and add-on delegates.
However, Senator Clinton is not expected to win more than 55% of the remaining pledged delegates or add-on delegates, which means that under the best of scenarios, she will need 78.6% of the remaining automatic (i.e. superdelegates that are not add-on) delegates to pick her to give her the nomination.
If she manages a split with Senator Obama in both categories from here on out, she will need essentially 90% of the superdelegates to move her way to capture the nomination.
As time goes on I want you to focus on the bright red part of the chart. These are options that are off the table for Clinton, because it would require her to win more superdelegates than those that actually remain, meaning she would need defections from Obama delegates. This scenario is not likely.
Notice how the bright red portion of the matrix continues to grow and grow as more pledged, add-on and superdelegates are selected and declared.
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin Named Louisiana Add-On Delegate
Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans, Louisiana, was elected at the Louisiana State Convention to serve as the add-on delegate allotted to the state for the Democratic National Convention.
Mr. Nagin is undeclared at this point.
Of the 28 add-on delegates named so far, six of them remain undeclared:
Mr. Nagin is undeclared at this point.
Of the 28 add-on delegates named so far, six of them remain undeclared:
- Ray Nagin (Louisiana)
- Terry Goddard (Arizona)
- Laurie Weahkee (New Mexico)
- Jay Nixon (Missouri)
- Vicky Harwell (Tennessee)
- Jerry Lee (Tennessee)
Another Superdelegate for Obama: Kalyn Free (Oklahoma)
Today the Obama Campaign received the announcement by Kalyn Free, a DNC Superdelegate and founder of the INDN's List, which recruits Native American candidates for elected office.
Some news organizations had already counted this superdelegate in the Obama tally; others had not. NBC News, whose counts I am using now, had already counted her for Obama so this announcement will not mean a gain in the Obama column in my analysis.
However, any momentum is good momentum, and this announcement adds to the deluge of Obama superdelegates and add-on delegates announcing today.
Plus, this endorsement does show that Obama does well within the Native American community, which could potentially turn New Mexico's add-on delegate, Laurie Weahkee, who is also Native American and wants to support the candidate that will represent the Native American interests.
Some news organizations had already counted this superdelegate in the Obama tally; others had not. NBC News, whose counts I am using now, had already counted her for Obama so this announcement will not mean a gain in the Obama column in my analysis.
However, any momentum is good momentum, and this announcement adds to the deluge of Obama superdelegates and add-on delegates announcing today.
Plus, this endorsement does show that Obama does well within the Native American community, which could potentially turn New Mexico's add-on delegate, Laurie Weahkee, who is also Native American and wants to support the candidate that will represent the Native American interests.
Three More Delegates for Obama: Illinois Add-Ons Offically Announced
Although in the works for several days now, the Illinois Democratic Party was finally able to announce officialy its three add-on delegates for this year's Democratic National Convention: Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, Cook County Board President Todd Stroger and Illinois House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie.
All three are Obama supporters, which gives Obama a clean sweep of add-on delegates in his home state, much like Clinton received in New York.
With the two Maryland superdelegates announcing with these three, today is a windfall for Senator Obama. I'll wait to post an updated status of the race later today because there may be more superdelegates announcing.
All three are Obama supporters, which gives Obama a clean sweep of add-on delegates in his home state, much like Clinton received in New York.
With the two Maryland superdelegates announcing with these three, today is a windfall for Senator Obama. I'll wait to post an updated status of the race later today because there may be more superdelegates announcing.
Maryland Chair, Vice Chair Are Two Newest Superdelegates for Obama
Hillary Clinton's campaign received an unexpected boost over the weekend when the Maryland State Party (which favors Clinton) split its two add-on delegates between Senators Obama and Clinton, even though Obama won the state by a hefty margin.
Today, the Chair and Vice Chair of Maryland's Democratic Party announced jointly their support for Senator Obama. Chairman Michael Cryor and Vice-Chairman Lauren Dugas Glover made their support known today in an event with recently appointed Obama-supporting add-on delegate Parris Glendening, former Governor of Maryland.
There is talk of more undeclared superdelegates announcing today from Maryland, which had the second largest number of undeclared superdelegates prior to today.
Today, the Chair and Vice Chair of Maryland's Democratic Party announced jointly their support for Senator Obama. Chairman Michael Cryor and Vice-Chairman Lauren Dugas Glover made their support known today in an event with recently appointed Obama-supporting add-on delegate Parris Glendening, former Governor of Maryland.
There is talk of more undeclared superdelegates announcing today from Maryland, which had the second largest number of undeclared superdelegates prior to today.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Obama Takes Guam (Unofficially)
After more that 4,500 votes were cast in this Democratic Primary pseudo-caucus in the U.S. Territory of Guam, the margin of victory for Senator Obama over Senator Clinton was a scant 7 votes, or 15/100ths of a percent of the valid votes cast.
I mention "valid" only because a re-count is likely to occur, with the Clinton campaign interested in viewing "spoiled" ballots or other ballots that exhibited flaws.
Regardless, this primary yields a 2-2 split in the four pledged delegates allotted to Guam.
Of far more importance, however, was the election of the Chair and Vice Chair of the Guam Democratic Party, with both positions recognized as superdelegates. With three competing slates up for these positions, the most pro-Obama slate was elected, with the incoming Vice Chair an Obama supporter (and instant superdelegate addition for Obama) and the incoming President undeclared but possibly endorsing the official winner of the primary contest in Guam.
I mention "valid" only because a re-count is likely to occur, with the Clinton campaign interested in viewing "spoiled" ballots or other ballots that exhibited flaws.
Regardless, this primary yields a 2-2 split in the four pledged delegates allotted to Guam.
Of far more importance, however, was the election of the Chair and Vice Chair of the Guam Democratic Party, with both positions recognized as superdelegates. With three competing slates up for these positions, the most pro-Obama slate was elected, with the incoming Vice Chair an Obama supporter (and instant superdelegate addition for Obama) and the incoming President undeclared but possibly endorsing the official winner of the primary contest in Guam.
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