-Pledged Delegates
-Superdelegates
-Add-on Delegates
PLEDGED DELEGATES
Using the GreenPapers website, as Demconwatch does, the pledged delegate count is as follows:
Magic Number (Pledged Delegate Majority): 1627
Obama: 1490 *Needs 137 for Pledged Delegate majority (33.6% of available)*
Clinton: 1336 *Needs 291 for Pledged Delegate majority (71.3% of available)*
Edwards: 19
Available: 408
OBAMA LEADS BY 132 PLEDGED DELEGATES
SUPERDELEGATES
Demconwatch has entrusted its Superdelegate count to GreenPapers, as ascertaining the accurate number of Superdelegates for each candidate can be tricky at times, as people back out of commitments, some superdelegates lose office, etc.
Excluding add-on delegates, there are 719 Superdelegates (795 - 76 add-ons). A majority of Superdelegates is 360.
According to TheGreenPapers.com, the Superdelegate count (excluding add-ons) stands as follows:
Obama: 227 *Needs 133 for Superdelegate majority (55.6% of available)*
Clinton: 253 *Needs 107 for Superdelegate majority (44.8% of available)*
Available: 239
CLINTON LEADS BY 26 SUPERDELEGATES
ADD-ON DELEGATES
There are 76 add-on delegates that are named throughout the primary season by each state in accordance to their prescribed rules. Chosen at a state-level convention or gathering, the mode of choice can be from a state delegate level vote, or appointed by a state chair, or other mechanism.
A majority of add-on delegates is 39.
Obama: 8 *Needs 31 for Add-on delegate majority (48.4% of available)*
Clinton: 4 *Needs 35 for Add-on delegate majority (54.7% of available)*
Available: 64
OBAMA LEADS BY 4 ADD-ON DELEGATES
TOTAL DELEGATES
4,048 Total Delegates are at stake in the primary. A majority of 2,025 is needed to gain the Democratic Nomination.
OBAMA: 1490 + 227 + 8 = 1725 (42.6% of Total Delegates)
CLINTON: 1336 + 253 + 4 = 1593 (39.4% of Total Delegates)
EDWARDS: 19 (0.5% of Total Delegates)
AVAILABLE: 408 + 239 + 64 = 711 (17.6% of Total Delegates)
To reach the Magic Number of 2025 Total Delegates to secure the nomination,
OBAMA needs 300 more Total Delegates (42.2% of Available Total Delegates)
CLINTON needs 432 more Total Delegates (60.8% of Available Total Delegates)
Assuming a likely split of pledged delegates remaining, with Obama gaining 209 and Clinton gaining 199 as previously projected,
OBAMA would have 1934 Total Delegates and need 91 of the remaining 303 super/add-on delegates (30%) more to win the nomination.
CLINTON would have 1792 Total Delegates and need 232 of the remaining 303 super/add-on delegates (76.6%) more to win the nomination.
The more the add-on delegate split deviates from each candidates percent of super/add-on delegates needed to win the nomination, the more pressure it puts on the candidate to secure the superdelegate portion of the remaining total delegates.
Of the remaining 303 super/add-on delegates in the scenario envisioned above,
64 (21.1%) of those would be add-on delegates and
239 (78.9%) would be superdelegates.
IMPORTANT SCENARIOS TO CONSIDER
Let's examine the range of possibilities. The actual results of the remaining add-on delegate declarations will most likely fall somewhere in the range of 62.5% for Obama and 62.5% for Clinton, to be charitable to Senator Clinton given the realities of the add-on selection process.
N.B. Percentages will not equal 100% in the cases where the Edwards' Delegates come into play.
(1) Senator Obama Wins 40 (62.5%) of the Remaining 64 Add-On Delegates:
Obama wins 40 of the 64 add-on delegates remaining, and Clinton wins 24.
Obama would then lead Clinton by a count of 1974 to 1816.
Obama would then need 51 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (21.3%)
Clinton would then need 209 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (87.4%)
(2) Senators Clinton and Obama split the remaining 64 add-on delegates, 32-32:
Clinton wins 32 add-on delegates, and Obama wins 32 as well.
Obama would then lead Clinton by a count of 1966 to 1824.
Obama would then need 59 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (24.7%).
Clinton would then need 201 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (84.1%).
(3) Senator Clinton Wins 40 (62.5%) of the Remaining 64 Add-On Delegates:
Clinton wins 40 add-on delegates, and Obama wins 24 add-on delegates.
Obama would then lead Clinton by a count of 1958 to 1832.
Obama would then need 67 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (28.0%).
Clinton would then need 193 of the 239 superdelegates to secure the nomination (80.8%)
RESULTS:
These three add-on delegate scenarios run the gamut of possibilities in the add-on delegate selection process, with a high level of certainty. The pledged delegate process also is constrained by the landscape of the final nine contests, with Obama favored to win 10 more delegates than Clinton by most counts. Therefore, the volatility exists mainly with uncommitted superdelegates.
Senator Obama will need somewhere between
21.3% (best case--51) and 28.0% (worst case--67)
of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to win the nomination
Senator Clinton will need somewhere between
80.8% (best case--193) and 87.4% (worst case--209)
of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to win the nomination.
ADDENDUM:
There has been talk about how it is that Superdelegates will decide the nomination and move en masse to one candidate or the other to make this happen.
We also need to study the composition of the Superdelegate class to understand who they are and what can be expected of them.
According to Demconwatch, of the remaining 238 uncommitted superdelegates, the breakdown is as such:
Governors 7 ( 2.9%)
Senators 18 ( 7.6%)
Congress 70 (29.4%)
Distinguished Party Leaders 6 ( 2.5%)
DNC Loyalists 137 (57.6%)
TOTAL: 238
This breakdown is important because the superdelegates most likely to move en masse at the request of the Party Leaders are actually the elected officeholders, who will want to use an established metric as justification for their choice to avoid backlash within their own district by supporters of the losing candidate.
That metric appears to be the pledged delegate vote count, although Senator Clinton is pushing a new (and logically inconsistent, but more to come on that later) version of a popular vote count.
95 of the remaining 238 (39.9%) uncommitted superdelegates are elected officeholders. Obama will only need between 51 and 67 superdelegates to move his way to win the nomination. That can be effected entirely through Congressmembers alone.
Currently Obama leads Clinton in committed superdelegates from this rank of elected officeholder by a count of 106 to 100.
Clinton, on the other hand, leads Obama in committed superdelegates from the rank of DNC loyalists and Distinguished Party Leaders by a count of 153 to 121.
In fact, Clinton's lead of 26 superdelegates comes primarily through her strength in non-elected officeholders who serve as superdelegates.
In contrast to Obama, Clinton will need 193 and 209 superdelegates to break her way to win the nomination.
Even if Clinton were to secure every single DNC/Distinguished Party Leader endorsement remaining, she would still need between 50 and 66 elected officeholders to break her way, which would mean between 52.6% and 69.5% of those elected officeholders.
For such a large number of those elected officeholders to accept a new metric that is not based on pledged delegates seems unlikely, if not impossible, given the massive political unrest in each elected officeholder's jurisdiction as a result of such action. At least, that's my take. If you disagree, put a post up and let me hear you.
Remember, as more and more superdelegates trickle in with their choices, these odds will continue to mount for Senator Clinton unless she starts winning 4 out of every 5 superdelegate decisions that are made.
However, as of her epic Pennsylvania victory, she has been outgained by Obama 4-2 in superdelegate declarations.
This analysis shows why Clinton's best course of action is to find a way to get Michigan and Florida seated at her best benefit, so that these daunting numbers soften for her and give her enough breathing room to operate and find a path to the nomination. Without both of those states being seated to her satisfaction, the challenge appears to great to overcome.
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