Despite Senator Clinton winning the caucus vote in Nevada, Senator Obama's performance in key districts allowed him to leave the voting day caucuses with a one-delegate win (13-12).
Similar to the Iowa Caucuses, where pledged delegates can be reallocated based on turnout and switching of support, the Nevada State Convention today produced a situation where the heavy Obama turnout and lighter Clinton turnout allowed Obama to capture one of Clinton's pledged delegate spots, thus expanding his pledged delegate lead in the state to 14-11, for a 2-delegate swing. The Clinton campaign did send former President Bill Clinton to seal the turnout needed to keep the pledged delegate from switching, but those efforts went fruitless.
The add-on delegate has not yet been announced in Nevada, but it has in Kansas.
As expected, Senator Obama received the support of the Kansas add-on delegate, Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson. Of note, Parkinson used to be a Republican but switched parties to become Governor Kathleen Sebelius' running mate in her election campaign.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Clinton Wins Support of California Super Umemoto
California superdelegate Keith Umemoto pledged his support for Senator Clinton yesterday, according to the Associated Press. I did not see a press release so I don't have more information to share, other than the fact that Umemoto is the DNC Chair of the Asian Pacific Islander American Caucus.
Obama Gains another Superdelegate
Another day, another superdelegate.
Senator Obama received the endorsement of Greg Pecoraro today.
An excerpt of Pecoraro's press release:
Senator Obama received the endorsement of Greg Pecoraro today.
An excerpt of Pecoraro's press release:
Today, I am very excited to join the large majority of Maryland Democrats
who expressed their enthusiasm for Senator Obama’s candidacy in our state's
presidential primary. Like them, I believe Barack Obama is the right leader for
our time. With Barack Obama as our nominee and as our President, we have real
hope that a new way of governing the nation is at hand. I strongly believe
that Senator Obama offers us the best opportunity we have had for many years to
turn away from the politics of division and despair, and look towards an America
of opportunity and progress.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Magic Numbers for Obama
Let's review the magic numbers again.
There have been two magic numbers associated with the Democratic Primary for awhile, specifically since the DNC acted to strip Michigan and Florida of ALL their delegates--pledged, add-on and automatic.
The first "magic number" is 2025, and the second is 1627.
2025
The first magic number, 2025, was designated as such in reference to the 4,048 total delegates available for gain (3253 pledged + 719 automatic + 76 add-on)
While the number of pledged and add-on delegates remains fixed by the DNC, the number of automatic delegates can shift slightly as a result of elected officials losing office or dying, or by party loyalists moving from their state in which they were given superdelegate status. The number of automatic delegates has moved up and down since the beginning of the primary season. With the most recent elections of Cazayoux in Louisiana and Childers in Mississippi, the new number of automatic delegates is now 721, which increased the number of Total Delegates to 4050, which in turn increases the "magic number" to 2025.5.
Given that the Democrats Abroad delegates are worth a half-delegate each, it is possible to end up with 2025.5 precisely.
If, as expected, Democrat Donna Edwards wins the contest for Maryland's 4th Congressional District seat left vacant by Albert Wynn on June 19th, then the number of Total Delegates will become 4051 and the new "magic number" will become 2026.
1627
As a result of the Michigan/Florida loss of all delegates, the total and unchanging number of pledged delegates available in this contest is 3253. 1627 represents a majority of those pledged delegates, and is recognized as the metric by which a winner of the pledged delegate count can be named.
This number is important because many automatic delegates have sought to link their support for a candidate to the "will of the people" argument associated with the pledged delegate count earned throughout the elections in each state, territory and special jurisdiction.
Obama currently has 1610 pledged delegates, including the eight Edwards' delegates (6 from S.C., 1 from Iowa, 1 from N.H) that have vowed to switch allegiances and the lone Clinton delegate from Maryland who has said he will switch to Obama as well. The Obama Campaign claims this total of 1610 as well.
By my count, Obama is only 17 pledged delegates away from gaining this magic number. There are 103 pledged delegates at stake on May 20th, so that is the date on which he will cross that threshold and possibly trigger superdelegates moving to him based on this metric.
What about Michigan and Florida?
Let's assume Michigan and Florida were seated fully. This would change both magic numbers.
Florida had 210 total delegates--185 pledged, 22 automatic and 3 add-on
Michigan had 156 total delegates -- 128 pledged, 26 automatic and 2 add-on
The new number of Total Delegates would become 4416 after adding in the 366 total delegates from Michigan and Florida.
The new "magic number" to clinch the nomination would then become 2208.5.
The new number of Pledged Delegates would become 3566 after adding in the 313 pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida.
The new "magic number" to clinch the majority of pledged delegates would then become 1783.5.
1783.5 to Clinch the "new" Pledged Delegate Majority
From where things stand now, Obama would need to come up with 173.5 pledged delegates to capture the pledged delegate "magic number" and 206 total delegates to capture the "magic number" needed to win the nomination.
With 189 delegates left in the remaining contests, if Obama were to capture 90 of those 189 delegates--a conservative measure of 47.6%--then he would have 1700 total before counting Michigan and Florida, and he would need 83.5 pledged delegates of the 366 available from Michigan/Florida.
According to the actual invalidated votes in those states, Obama received zero pledged delegates in Michigan and 72 pledged delegates in Florida. This total would leave him needing 11.5 delegates from any compromise position regarding these states to give him his majority, if he only gained 90 of 189 from the remaining contests.
However, with the recent endorsement of Obama by Edwards, it is highly likely the the remainder of the 11 pledged delegates won by Edwards (3 from NH, 2 from SC and 6 from Iowa) would go to Obama.
Also, Edwards would be credited with 13 pledged delegates from Florida if that delegation was seated based on the primary vote. These 13 would also put Obama over the "magic number" needed to clinch this important metric.
2208.5 to "Clinch" the Nomination
Regarding the second "magic number" to clinch the nomination--2208.5--let's add up the delegates Obama should be able to get and then see how the remaining automatic delegates need to break in order to give him the nomination.
Obama is at 1902.5 total delegates, leaving him 306 total delegates short of the nomination by this new metric.
Let's add the following:
There have been two magic numbers associated with the Democratic Primary for awhile, specifically since the DNC acted to strip Michigan and Florida of ALL their delegates--pledged, add-on and automatic.
The first "magic number" is 2025, and the second is 1627.
2025
The first magic number, 2025, was designated as such in reference to the 4,048 total delegates available for gain (3253 pledged + 719 automatic + 76 add-on)
While the number of pledged and add-on delegates remains fixed by the DNC, the number of automatic delegates can shift slightly as a result of elected officials losing office or dying, or by party loyalists moving from their state in which they were given superdelegate status. The number of automatic delegates has moved up and down since the beginning of the primary season. With the most recent elections of Cazayoux in Louisiana and Childers in Mississippi, the new number of automatic delegates is now 721, which increased the number of Total Delegates to 4050, which in turn increases the "magic number" to 2025.5.
Given that the Democrats Abroad delegates are worth a half-delegate each, it is possible to end up with 2025.5 precisely.
If, as expected, Democrat Donna Edwards wins the contest for Maryland's 4th Congressional District seat left vacant by Albert Wynn on June 19th, then the number of Total Delegates will become 4051 and the new "magic number" will become 2026.
1627
As a result of the Michigan/Florida loss of all delegates, the total and unchanging number of pledged delegates available in this contest is 3253. 1627 represents a majority of those pledged delegates, and is recognized as the metric by which a winner of the pledged delegate count can be named.
This number is important because many automatic delegates have sought to link their support for a candidate to the "will of the people" argument associated with the pledged delegate count earned throughout the elections in each state, territory and special jurisdiction.
Obama currently has 1610 pledged delegates, including the eight Edwards' delegates (6 from S.C., 1 from Iowa, 1 from N.H) that have vowed to switch allegiances and the lone Clinton delegate from Maryland who has said he will switch to Obama as well. The Obama Campaign claims this total of 1610 as well.
By my count, Obama is only 17 pledged delegates away from gaining this magic number. There are 103 pledged delegates at stake on May 20th, so that is the date on which he will cross that threshold and possibly trigger superdelegates moving to him based on this metric.
What about Michigan and Florida?
Let's assume Michigan and Florida were seated fully. This would change both magic numbers.
Florida had 210 total delegates--185 pledged, 22 automatic and 3 add-on
Michigan had 156 total delegates -- 128 pledged, 26 automatic and 2 add-on
The new number of Total Delegates would become 4416 after adding in the 366 total delegates from Michigan and Florida.
The new "magic number" to clinch the nomination would then become 2208.5.
The new number of Pledged Delegates would become 3566 after adding in the 313 pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida.
The new "magic number" to clinch the majority of pledged delegates would then become 1783.5.
1783.5 to Clinch the "new" Pledged Delegate Majority
From where things stand now, Obama would need to come up with 173.5 pledged delegates to capture the pledged delegate "magic number" and 206 total delegates to capture the "magic number" needed to win the nomination.
With 189 delegates left in the remaining contests, if Obama were to capture 90 of those 189 delegates--a conservative measure of 47.6%--then he would have 1700 total before counting Michigan and Florida, and he would need 83.5 pledged delegates of the 366 available from Michigan/Florida.
According to the actual invalidated votes in those states, Obama received zero pledged delegates in Michigan and 72 pledged delegates in Florida. This total would leave him needing 11.5 delegates from any compromise position regarding these states to give him his majority, if he only gained 90 of 189 from the remaining contests.
However, with the recent endorsement of Obama by Edwards, it is highly likely the the remainder of the 11 pledged delegates won by Edwards (3 from NH, 2 from SC and 6 from Iowa) would go to Obama.
Also, Edwards would be credited with 13 pledged delegates from Florida if that delegation was seated based on the primary vote. These 13 would also put Obama over the "magic number" needed to clinch this important metric.
2208.5 to "Clinch" the Nomination
Regarding the second "magic number" to clinch the nomination--2208.5--let's add up the delegates Obama should be able to get and then see how the remaining automatic delegates need to break in order to give him the nomination.
Obama is at 1902.5 total delegates, leaving him 306 total delegates short of the nomination by this new metric.
Let's add the following:
- 90 pledged delegates from the remaining states
- 24 pledged Edwards delegates from New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Florida
- 3 automatic delegates already gained from Michigan
- 3 automatic delegates already gained from Florida
- 1 add-on delegate already gained from Florida
- 72 pledged delegates already gained from Florida
- 30 expected add-on delegates from states in which Obama was victorious
This gives Obama another 223 total delegates to add to his current total, bringing him up to 2125.5. This leaves him 83 total delegates short of the new metric, meaning that of the remaining 209 automatic delegates and 5 add-on delegates. 83 of 214 would constitute a 38.8% share of these delegates, in the worst case scenario.
The Reality
Keep in mind the proposal above does not include any gains of pledged delegates from the Michigan primary. This type of result is simply not a politically viable result for the Obama campaign.
There is a strong possibility, now that Edwards has endorsed Obama, that Obama can now fully claim the 55 pledged delegates for "Uncommitted" in Michigan, which then brings him 28 automatic delegates short of the finish line if Michigan and Florida are seated fully. That only represents 13% of the automatic delegates that would be left, and he may cross that line by the end of next week.
Somewhere in between 2025(.5) and 2208.5 will be the new finish line number, pending the results of the DNC meetings. The lower the number is, the more favorable the contest is for Senator Obama.
Obama Enjoys 4-Delegate Swing from NC + DELEGATE UPDATE
Originally it was reported that Senator Obama netted 15 pledged delegates (65-50) from North Carolina after the May 6th primary.
NBC News has revised that total, noting that the actual margin was 67-48 in favor of Obama. This shift represents a +2 gain for Obama and a -2 loss for Clinton, giving Obama a 4-delegate shift and a new number of pledged delegates.
The new NBC total of pledged delegates for Obama and Clinton is 1601 -- 1445.
I have added the seven pledged Edwards delegates that have declared their support for Obama since Edwards' endorsement of Obama, so my total is 1608 -- 1445, for a lead of 163 pledged delegates.
Obama is 19 pledged delegates away from the 1627 magic number for a final pledged delegate majority.
New delegate standings from NBC (including the 7 Edwards delegates):
PLEDGED DELEGATES: (3053/3253 Gained = 93.9%)
Obama
1608
(49.4%)
Clinton
1445
(44.4%)
ADD-ON DELEGATES: (28/76 Gained = 36.8%)
Obama
17
(22.4%)
Clinton
11
(14.5%)
AUTOMATIC DELEGATES: (541/719 Gained = 75.2%)
Obama
275.5
(38.3%)
Clinton
265.5
(36.9%)
REMAINING DELEGATES: (414/4048 total = 10.2%)
Pledged
188
(5.8%)
Add-On
48
(63.2%)
Automatic
178
(24.8%)
TOTAL DELEGATES: (2025 needed to win nomination)
OBAMA
1900.5
(93.9%)
CLINTON
1721.5
(85.0%)
NBC News has revised that total, noting that the actual margin was 67-48 in favor of Obama. This shift represents a +2 gain for Obama and a -2 loss for Clinton, giving Obama a 4-delegate shift and a new number of pledged delegates.
The new NBC total of pledged delegates for Obama and Clinton is 1601 -- 1445.
I have added the seven pledged Edwards delegates that have declared their support for Obama since Edwards' endorsement of Obama, so my total is 1608 -- 1445, for a lead of 163 pledged delegates.
Obama is 19 pledged delegates away from the 1627 magic number for a final pledged delegate majority.
New delegate standings from NBC (including the 7 Edwards delegates):
PLEDGED DELEGATES: (3053/3253 Gained = 93.9%)
Obama
1608
(49.4%)
Clinton
1445
(44.4%)
ADD-ON DELEGATES: (28/76 Gained = 36.8%)
Obama
17
(22.4%)
Clinton
11
(14.5%)
AUTOMATIC DELEGATES: (541/719 Gained = 75.2%)
Obama
275.5
(38.3%)
Clinton
265.5
(36.9%)
REMAINING DELEGATES: (414/4048 total = 10.2%)
Pledged
188
(5.8%)
Add-On
48
(63.2%)
Automatic
178
(24.8%)
TOTAL DELEGATES: (2025 needed to win nomination)
OBAMA
1900.5
(93.9%)
CLINTON
1721.5
(85.0%)
Pete Stark (CA) Endorses Obama
Despite his Congressional District going solidly for Senator Clinton, California Congressman Pete Stark has decided to endorse Senator Obama. Congressman Stark spoke out about the need to unify the Democratic Party in preparation for the general election fight with John McCain and the Republican Party.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Obama, Clinton Will Make Gains with Add-On Delegates this Weekend
Eight add-on delegates are schedule to be named this weekend (May 17-18) and Senator Obama should pick up four and could pick up five of them.
On Saturday, Colorado, Kansas and Nevada will select their lone add-on delegate, while California will announce its five add-on delegates on Sunday.
As Demconwatch notes here, Colorado's add-on delegate will be Federico Pena, who is open about his support for Senator Obama. The Denver Post noted that Pena's competitor for the position, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, decided to withdraw his name from the ballot for the add-on position. Obama won the state handily and it was likely that his large majority of supporters would have voted for Pena regardless of the DNC's host city having its uncommitted Mayor on the ballot.
Kansas went heavily for Obama as well, but there is no news about the likelihood of the add-on declaring for either candidate.
Nevada will be an interesting test as Clinton won the popular vote of the caucuses there but Obama won the most delegates. No word on how this one will turn out.
California is assured of giving Obama two add-ons and Clinton three add-ons, as declared by California State Chair Art Torres in this article. As noted, "Torres has come up with a diplomatic way to select his five delegates. He said he plans to award them in proportion to the vote in California's Democratic primary. Clinton received about 52 percent of the vote, so she gets three; Obama got 43 percent of the vote, so he gets two."
Obama is assured of three add-on delegates from Colorado and California, and is likely to win the Kansas add-on as a result of his blowout 74% - 26% victory on Super Tuesday. Clinton is assured of three add-on delegates and may be favored in Nevada.
On Saturday, Colorado, Kansas and Nevada will select their lone add-on delegate, while California will announce its five add-on delegates on Sunday.
As Demconwatch notes here, Colorado's add-on delegate will be Federico Pena, who is open about his support for Senator Obama. The Denver Post noted that Pena's competitor for the position, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, decided to withdraw his name from the ballot for the add-on position. Obama won the state handily and it was likely that his large majority of supporters would have voted for Pena regardless of the DNC's host city having its uncommitted Mayor on the ballot.
Kansas went heavily for Obama as well, but there is no news about the likelihood of the add-on declaring for either candidate.
Nevada will be an interesting test as Clinton won the popular vote of the caucuses there but Obama won the most delegates. No word on how this one will turn out.
California is assured of giving Obama two add-ons and Clinton three add-ons, as declared by California State Chair Art Torres in this article. As noted, "Torres has come up with a diplomatic way to select his five delegates. He said he plans to award them in proportion to the vote in California's Democratic primary. Clinton received about 52 percent of the vote, so she gets three; Obama got 43 percent of the vote, so he gets two."
Obama is assured of three add-on delegates from Colorado and California, and is likely to win the Kansas add-on as a result of his blowout 74% - 26% victory on Super Tuesday. Clinton is assured of three add-on delegates and may be favored in Nevada.
More Superdelegates for Obama
Two high profile Jewish Congressmen from California have declared their support for Senator Obama today. Congressmen Henry Waxman and Howard Berman, both of Los Angeles, have announced that they are supporting the candidacy of Barack Obama.
Beyond the shot of support to Senator Obama from highly-regarded political leaders in the Jewish community, these endorsements also give Obama the backing of two highly-ranked Committee Chairmen, as Waxman chairs the House Oversight Committee and Berman chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Also, Obama picked up the endorsement of Congressman Jim McDermott, who represents the Seattle area of Washington. McDermott becomes Obama's fifth superdelegate from the state of Washington, tying Senator Clinton's support in the state.
Finally, Obama also won the support of Washington DC superdelegate and Communications Workers for America President Larry Cohen. Talkingpointsmemo notes that "this is also Obama's second labor endorsement today, having picked up the backing of the steelworkers' union this morning -- suggesting that John Edwards' endorsement of Obama yesterday is hastening the coalescing of institutional support behind the Illinois Senator".
These four automatic delegates bring Obama's total up to 274.5, a nine automatic delegate lead over Clinton. Overall, Obama leads Clinton 1897.5 to 1723.5 in total delegates.
Beyond the shot of support to Senator Obama from highly-regarded political leaders in the Jewish community, these endorsements also give Obama the backing of two highly-ranked Committee Chairmen, as Waxman chairs the House Oversight Committee and Berman chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Also, Obama picked up the endorsement of Congressman Jim McDermott, who represents the Seattle area of Washington. McDermott becomes Obama's fifth superdelegate from the state of Washington, tying Senator Clinton's support in the state.
Finally, Obama also won the support of Washington DC superdelegate and Communications Workers for America President Larry Cohen. Talkingpointsmemo notes that "this is also Obama's second labor endorsement today, having picked up the backing of the steelworkers' union this morning -- suggesting that John Edwards' endorsement of Obama yesterday is hastening the coalescing of institutional support behind the Illinois Senator".
These four automatic delegates bring Obama's total up to 274.5, a nine automatic delegate lead over Clinton. Overall, Obama leads Clinton 1897.5 to 1723.5 in total delegates.
The Edwards Primary Begins
Earlier, I wrote that the effect of John Edwards' endorsement of Senator Obama could in fact create a full swing of the 19 pledged delegates earned by Edwards during the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. These 19 delegates would constitute a victory equal to that of the combined delegate victories that Senator Clinton won in Ohio (7) and West Virginia (12).
Signs of movement among these pledged delegates to Obama are already taking place.
New Hampshire: Four Edwards' Delegates
A New Hampshire pledged delegate won by Edwards has declared his support for Obama. Josh Denton, a 26-year-old Iraq war veteran, is one of Edwards' four pledged delegates from the Granite State. The other three Edwards' delegates have not indicated that they will follow suit anytime soon.
With the pickup of Denton, Obama is officially the delegate winner of New Hampshire, breaking the previous 9-9-4 tie with Clinton and victory over Edwards as a result of that contest.
South Carolina: Eight Edwards Delegates
Of the eight pledged delegates that Edwards won in South Carolina, there is now a report that six of them will back Senator Obama. CNN is also reporting this, and provided the list of names of the Edwards' delegates moving to Obama:
CONCLUSION:
The Obama and Clinton campaigns have had their eyes on these stranded delegates for awhile, with Clinton's camp contacting Edwards' delegates in Iowa and Obama contacting Edwards' delegates in South Carolina.
So far, these articles confirm a movement of seven Edwards' delegates into the Obama column, with possibly more to come.
Obama's pledged delegate total has increased to 1606, just 21 pledged delegates short of the magic number of 1627 needed to claim a victory in the pledged delegate count.
Signs of movement among these pledged delegates to Obama are already taking place.
New Hampshire: Four Edwards' Delegates
A New Hampshire pledged delegate won by Edwards has declared his support for Obama. Josh Denton, a 26-year-old Iraq war veteran, is one of Edwards' four pledged delegates from the Granite State. The other three Edwards' delegates have not indicated that they will follow suit anytime soon.
With the pickup of Denton, Obama is officially the delegate winner of New Hampshire, breaking the previous 9-9-4 tie with Clinton and victory over Edwards as a result of that contest.
South Carolina: Eight Edwards Delegates
Of the eight pledged delegates that Edwards won in South Carolina, there is now a report that six of them will back Senator Obama. CNN is also reporting this, and provided the list of names of the Edwards' delegates moving to Obama:
- Daniel Boan
- Christine Brennan-Bond
- Robert Groce
- Susan Smith
- Mike Evatt
- Lauren Bilton
Alternate Edwards' delegate and Edwards' South Carolina Campaign Chair John Moylan also indicated that the other two pledged delegates are also likely to follow Edwards' lead in supporting Senator Obama
Iowa: Four Confirmed and Three Expected Edwards Delegates
So far, no word yet on any Iowa pledged delegates for Edwards making any switches. Edwards has four pledged delegates guaranteed and another three that were expected to go to him once Iowa confirms all of its delegates in June. This article gives a sense of what is happening in Iowa and how there will probably be movement at some point by these delegates to Obama or to Clinton.CONCLUSION:
The Obama and Clinton campaigns have had their eyes on these stranded delegates for awhile, with Clinton's camp contacting Edwards' delegates in Iowa and Obama contacting Edwards' delegates in South Carolina.
So far, these articles confirm a movement of seven Edwards' delegates into the Obama column, with possibly more to come.
Obama's pledged delegate total has increased to 1606, just 21 pledged delegates short of the magic number of 1627 needed to claim a victory in the pledged delegate count.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Obama Endorsed by Michigan Superdelegate Ficano
Although the endorsement doesn't change any of the current vote totals because of the penalty on Michigan delegates, this announcement still gives Obama some momentum during his high-profile trip to Michigan.
Gaining traction in Michigan will be very helpful for Obama as it raises the possibility of seating the Michigan delegation as more of that state's superdelegates endorse him, and also the implication that Obama can win Michigan if he campaigns there.
Bob Ficano is the Wayne County Executive.
Gaining traction in Michigan will be very helpful for Obama as it raises the possibility of seating the Michigan delegation as more of that state's superdelegates endorse him, and also the implication that Obama can win Michigan if he campaigns there.
Bob Ficano is the Wayne County Executive.
Another Superdelegate for Obama
This one's from Wisconsin. According to Ben Smith, Lena Taylor is a DNC superdelegate and a State Senator.
Edwards to Endorse Obama
As mused in the prior post, it is now being confirmed by NBC News that John Edwards indeed will endorse Senator Barack Obama.
While Edwards does not have superdelegate status, he does control his 18 (or is it 19?) pledged delegates to some degree and he also will be very persuasive in attracting more superdelegates to coalesce around Senator Obama.
The timing of the announcement strives for maximum effect. The day after being trounced in West Virginia by what is considered John Edwards' mealticket constituency, an Edwards endorsement will help Obama show he can bridge the cultural divide and gain the support of the hero of the middle-class, blue-collar "white" American vote.
Edwards gained 7% of the vote in West Virginia despite not even campaigning for months.
While Edwards does not have superdelegate status, he does control his 18 (or is it 19?) pledged delegates to some degree and he also will be very persuasive in attracting more superdelegates to coalesce around Senator Obama.
The timing of the announcement strives for maximum effect. The day after being trounced in West Virginia by what is considered John Edwards' mealticket constituency, an Edwards endorsement will help Obama show he can bridge the cultural divide and gain the support of the hero of the middle-class, blue-collar "white" American vote.
Edwards gained 7% of the vote in West Virginia despite not even campaigning for months.
Major Endorsement to Be Announced by Obama Campaign Tonight
Saw across the blogosphere that there is a major endorsement to be unveiled tonight at 6:30 pm EST by the Obama Campaign.
Some are speculating that it is John Edwards. If that's the case, it would be an example where a non-superdelegate endorsement actually impacts the election in a meaningful way.
I wrote earlier here about the "Edwards Primary", as first described on Mr. Super in which Edwards by dropping out of the race (instead of suspending it, as he did) could effectively move those 19 pledged delegates he's won in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina over to Obama. This type of 19-delegate swing would be bigger than Clinton's net gain in Indiana and West Virginia combined.
Others have speculated that it's Al Gore or someone of that magnitude. Still others are reading into the cryptic announcement that perhaps it's a major block of superdelegates set to endorse, not just one endorsement. There were hints of a major block of North Carolina superdelegate endorsements earlier in the campaign.
It will be interesting to see if this endorsement has more of a direct or indirect impact on the delegate race between Senators Obama and Clinton.
Some are speculating that it is John Edwards. If that's the case, it would be an example where a non-superdelegate endorsement actually impacts the election in a meaningful way.
I wrote earlier here about the "Edwards Primary", as first described on Mr. Super in which Edwards by dropping out of the race (instead of suspending it, as he did) could effectively move those 19 pledged delegates he's won in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina over to Obama. This type of 19-delegate swing would be bigger than Clinton's net gain in Indiana and West Virginia combined.
Others have speculated that it's Al Gore or someone of that magnitude. Still others are reading into the cryptic announcement that perhaps it's a major block of superdelegates set to endorse, not just one endorsement. There were hints of a major block of North Carolina superdelegate endorsements earlier in the campaign.
It will be interesting to see if this endorsement has more of a direct or indirect impact on the delegate race between Senators Obama and Clinton.
OK Super Gives Obama the OK
According to Ben Smith, Obama has picked up yet another superdelegate today.
This time it's DNC superdelegate Mike Morgan, who serves as the State Senate's President pro Tem.
This time it's DNC superdelegate Mike Morgan, who serves as the State Senate's President pro Tem.
Clinton Gains an Add-On from Tennessee
Vicki Harwell, who was named as an Add-On Delegate from Tennessee back on March 15th, has officially endorsed Clinton today.
Harwell cited Clinton's strong performance in West Virginia as one reason why she has decided to back the Former First Lady.
Harwell cited Clinton's strong performance in West Virginia as one reason why she has decided to back the Former First Lady.
How Clinton won Indiana by 18,000 Votes but Still Netted Four Pledged Delegates
With a scant 17,700 margin of victory in Indiana for Senator Clinton, it seems intuitively that she would tie Senator Obama 36-36 in the allocation of the state's 72 pledged delegates given the closeness of a race that was decided within 2%.
However, Clinton won the state's pledged delegates by a 38-34 margin, and the analysis of how this happens helps provide an insight into how pledged delegates are gained in the Democratic primary process.
Indiana's 72 pledged delegates were divided into 11 separate contests: Pledged delegates won in each of Indiana's nine congressional districts, pledged at-large delegates determined by statewide results, and pledged Party Leader/Elected Officials (PLEOs) determined by statewide results.
Congressional Districts
47 of the 72 pledged delegates were awarded through each of Indiana's nine Congressional Districts.
The odd number of pledged delegates available through this part of the contest ensured that one candidate would be assured of a net pick-up through this phase.
Each Congressional District was awarded pledged delegates based on factors such as registered Democrats and turnout in prior Presidential and State elections. Five Districts had 6 delegates, three had 4 delegates and one had 5 delegates:
CD1: 6
CD2: 6
CD3: 4
CD4: 4
CD5: 4
CD6: 5
CD7: 6
CD8: 6
CD9: 6
Under the Democratic Primary proportional allocation rules, the number of delegates won per Congressional District (or whatever district used) is based on two factors: share of vote and threshold.
The first factor, share of vote, simply reflects the percent of the vote that each candidate receives.
The second factor, threshold, is different for districts with different numbers of delegates to offer.
Six-Delegate Districts
For example, in the districts with 6 pledged delegates, a 3-3 split is guaranteed if the winner's share of the vote does not exceed 58.5% in the district.
Indiana had five districts with 6 pledged delegates at stake. The results are below:
CD1: Obama 52.7% = 3-3 split
CD2: Clinton 50.9% = 3-3 split
CD7: Obama 70.0% = 4-2 win for Obama
CD8: Clinton 59.4% = 4-2 win for Clinton
CD9: Clinton 63.4% = 4-2 win for Clinton
In these five districts with 765,167 votes cast, Obama won 380,622 votes (49.7% ) and Clinton won 384,505 votes (50.3%), yet Clinton netted 16 of 30 pledged delegates simply because she squeezed past the 58.5% threshold in two districts while Obama's strong performance in CD7 wasn't enough to get him past the next hurdle, the 75% threshold, to capitalize on that margin of victory.
If Obama was able to carry 75% of CD7's district, he would have won 5 of 6 of that district's pledged delegates and this four-delegate margin would have erased Clinton's double two-delegate margin in CD8 and CD9.
Similarly, if Clinton had gained 1% less of the vote in CD8, she would not have crossed the 58.5% threshold there and she would have split those delegates 3-3 with Obama, also creating a tie among these five districts.
Five-Delegate Districts
Only one district in Indiana had an odd number of delegates, and that was CD6 with five pledged delegates. Obviously a win in this district means the candidate gets at least a 3-2 split. Clinton carried 58.4% of the district.
For Clinton to have gained a 4-1 split in this district, she would have needed 70% of the vote, a much higher threshold than the 58.5% threshold for six-delegate districts to gain the extra margin. So, anywhere between a 50% and 70% win for a candidate results in a one-delegate margin of victory. If a candidate is close to that 70% share of the vote, then it makes sense to pour more resources into turnout to cross the threshold, while it would not make sense to do that if the candidate was at 58%.
A 4-1 split here with a 70%+ share of the vote would yield a three-delegate gain. Interestingly, Obama's 70%+ win in CD7 (with six delegates) only netted him two delegates, because of the difference in thresholds between districts of different delegate numbers.
Four-Delegate Districts
The remaining three districts in Indiana were four-delegate districts, with their own thresholds for delegate allocation.
The thresholds here are different than in those listed above. The threshold for a candidate to reach in order to cause a 3-1 split in delegates is 62.5% of the vote. Anywhere between 50% and 62.5% yields a 2-2 split.
To capture all 4 delegates, a candidate would have to win by 85%+ in order to make the opponent non-viable in the district.
Here were the results:
CD3: Obama 52.4% (2-2 split)
CD4: Clinton 50.7% (2-2 split)
CD5: Obama 51.8% (2-2 split)
So, in these three districts, the results were a wash, despite Obama outgaining Clinton by 188,222 - 179,907.
District Conclusions
Clinton outgained Obama by 3,883 votes in the five districts with six delegates each, and because of the way the thresholds worked in those districts, she was able to net two more delegates than Obama from those five districts.
Obama outgained Clinton by 8,315 votes in the three districts with four delegates each, but because of the way these thresholds worked, he could not net any delegates over his opponent.
Obama also had the bad luck of losing in a district that had an odd number of delegates, which gave Clinton an automatic net delegate from that district. If CD6 was a four-delegate district and CD5 was a five-delegate district, then Obama would have lost 24-23 in these districts. Instead, Clinton ended up with a 25-22 advantage here for a three delegate margin.
CLINTON 25 -- OBAMA 22
Pledged At-Large Delegates:
16 pledged delegates in Indiana were of the at-large variety, which depended upon the final tally of the statewide vote in the allocation of these delegates.
Obama and Clinton both gained 8 delegates from this pool, as a result of the even number of delegates at hand and the close race.
CLINTON 8 -- OBAMA 8
Pledged PLEOs (Party Leader/Elected Official) Delegates:
Nine of the state's pledged delegates were allocated through this category, ensuring the winner of the state with at least a 5-4 advantage.
As a result of the close race, this slim margin of one-delegate remained the final result of this category of pledged delegates.
CLINTON 5 -- OBAMA 4
FINAL RESULTS:
72 Pledged Delegates at stake
CLINTON 38 -- OBAMA 34
CLINTON gains 25 District, 8 At-Large and 5 PLEO pledged delegates.
OBAMA gains 22 District, 8 At-Large and 4 PLEO pledged delegates.
Interestingly enough, if Obama had been able to keep Clinton under 58.5% in CD8 and CD9 while having the fortune of having the only odd-numbered delegate district be in his column, Obama would have won this delegate contest by a 37-35 margin.
Obama needed 2,716 more votes (or 3,809 less votes for Clinton) in CD8 and 12,474 more votes (or 17, 584 less votes for Clinton) in CD9 to force a tie in the pledged delegate race.
There are contests with each state contest, and understanding how the delegates break out helps to eliminate some of the confusion involved in how delegates are actually allocated.
However, Clinton won the state's pledged delegates by a 38-34 margin, and the analysis of how this happens helps provide an insight into how pledged delegates are gained in the Democratic primary process.
Indiana's 72 pledged delegates were divided into 11 separate contests: Pledged delegates won in each of Indiana's nine congressional districts, pledged at-large delegates determined by statewide results, and pledged Party Leader/Elected Officials (PLEOs) determined by statewide results.
Congressional Districts
47 of the 72 pledged delegates were awarded through each of Indiana's nine Congressional Districts.
The odd number of pledged delegates available through this part of the contest ensured that one candidate would be assured of a net pick-up through this phase.
Each Congressional District was awarded pledged delegates based on factors such as registered Democrats and turnout in prior Presidential and State elections. Five Districts had 6 delegates, three had 4 delegates and one had 5 delegates:
CD1: 6
CD2: 6
CD3: 4
CD4: 4
CD5: 4
CD6: 5
CD7: 6
CD8: 6
CD9: 6
Under the Democratic Primary proportional allocation rules, the number of delegates won per Congressional District (or whatever district used) is based on two factors: share of vote and threshold.
The first factor, share of vote, simply reflects the percent of the vote that each candidate receives.
The second factor, threshold, is different for districts with different numbers of delegates to offer.
Six-Delegate Districts
For example, in the districts with 6 pledged delegates, a 3-3 split is guaranteed if the winner's share of the vote does not exceed 58.5% in the district.
- If the winner gains less than 58.5%, then that winner splits the delegates 3-3 with the loser.
- If the winner gains between 58.5% and 75%, then that winner gets 4 of the 6 pledged delegates. (4-2 split)
- If the winner gains between 75% and 85%, then the winner gets 5 of the 6 pledged delegates. (5-1 split)
- If the winner gains over 85%, then that means the loser did not reach viability in the district, and all 6 pledged delegates go to the winner. (6-0 split)
Indiana had five districts with 6 pledged delegates at stake. The results are below:
CD1: Obama 52.7% = 3-3 split
CD2: Clinton 50.9% = 3-3 split
CD7: Obama 70.0% = 4-2 win for Obama
CD8: Clinton 59.4% = 4-2 win for Clinton
CD9: Clinton 63.4% = 4-2 win for Clinton
In these five districts with 765,167 votes cast, Obama won 380,622 votes (49.7% ) and Clinton won 384,505 votes (50.3%), yet Clinton netted 16 of 30 pledged delegates simply because she squeezed past the 58.5% threshold in two districts while Obama's strong performance in CD7 wasn't enough to get him past the next hurdle, the 75% threshold, to capitalize on that margin of victory.
If Obama was able to carry 75% of CD7's district, he would have won 5 of 6 of that district's pledged delegates and this four-delegate margin would have erased Clinton's double two-delegate margin in CD8 and CD9.
Similarly, if Clinton had gained 1% less of the vote in CD8, she would not have crossed the 58.5% threshold there and she would have split those delegates 3-3 with Obama, also creating a tie among these five districts.
Five-Delegate Districts
Only one district in Indiana had an odd number of delegates, and that was CD6 with five pledged delegates. Obviously a win in this district means the candidate gets at least a 3-2 split. Clinton carried 58.4% of the district.
For Clinton to have gained a 4-1 split in this district, she would have needed 70% of the vote, a much higher threshold than the 58.5% threshold for six-delegate districts to gain the extra margin. So, anywhere between a 50% and 70% win for a candidate results in a one-delegate margin of victory. If a candidate is close to that 70% share of the vote, then it makes sense to pour more resources into turnout to cross the threshold, while it would not make sense to do that if the candidate was at 58%.
A 4-1 split here with a 70%+ share of the vote would yield a three-delegate gain. Interestingly, Obama's 70%+ win in CD7 (with six delegates) only netted him two delegates, because of the difference in thresholds between districts of different delegate numbers.
Four-Delegate Districts
The remaining three districts in Indiana were four-delegate districts, with their own thresholds for delegate allocation.
The thresholds here are different than in those listed above. The threshold for a candidate to reach in order to cause a 3-1 split in delegates is 62.5% of the vote. Anywhere between 50% and 62.5% yields a 2-2 split.
To capture all 4 delegates, a candidate would have to win by 85%+ in order to make the opponent non-viable in the district.
Here were the results:
CD3: Obama 52.4% (2-2 split)
CD4: Clinton 50.7% (2-2 split)
CD5: Obama 51.8% (2-2 split)
So, in these three districts, the results were a wash, despite Obama outgaining Clinton by 188,222 - 179,907.
District Conclusions
Clinton outgained Obama by 3,883 votes in the five districts with six delegates each, and because of the way the thresholds worked in those districts, she was able to net two more delegates than Obama from those five districts.
Obama outgained Clinton by 8,315 votes in the three districts with four delegates each, but because of the way these thresholds worked, he could not net any delegates over his opponent.
Obama also had the bad luck of losing in a district that had an odd number of delegates, which gave Clinton an automatic net delegate from that district. If CD6 was a four-delegate district and CD5 was a five-delegate district, then Obama would have lost 24-23 in these districts. Instead, Clinton ended up with a 25-22 advantage here for a three delegate margin.
CLINTON 25 -- OBAMA 22
Pledged At-Large Delegates:
16 pledged delegates in Indiana were of the at-large variety, which depended upon the final tally of the statewide vote in the allocation of these delegates.
Obama and Clinton both gained 8 delegates from this pool, as a result of the even number of delegates at hand and the close race.
CLINTON 8 -- OBAMA 8
Pledged PLEOs (Party Leader/Elected Official) Delegates:
Nine of the state's pledged delegates were allocated through this category, ensuring the winner of the state with at least a 5-4 advantage.
As a result of the close race, this slim margin of one-delegate remained the final result of this category of pledged delegates.
CLINTON 5 -- OBAMA 4
FINAL RESULTS:
72 Pledged Delegates at stake
CLINTON 38 -- OBAMA 34
CLINTON gains 25 District, 8 At-Large and 5 PLEO pledged delegates.
OBAMA gains 22 District, 8 At-Large and 4 PLEO pledged delegates.
Interestingly enough, if Obama had been able to keep Clinton under 58.5% in CD8 and CD9 while having the fortune of having the only odd-numbered delegate district be in his column, Obama would have won this delegate contest by a 37-35 margin.
Obama needed 2,716 more votes (or 3,809 less votes for Clinton) in CD8 and 12,474 more votes (or 17, 584 less votes for Clinton) in CD9 to force a tie in the pledged delegate race.
There are contests with each state contest, and understanding how the delegates break out helps to eliminate some of the confusion involved in how delegates are actually allocated.
Obama Picks up 2.5 More Supers after WV Loss
Senator Obama has now picked up the endorsement of an Indiana congressman in consecutive days, this time with Pete Visclosky making his announcement to endorse the Illinois Senator.
Visclosky represents the northwest portion of Indiana, which is within the Chicago media market and neighbors Senator Obama's home state. Visclosky's congressional district, which includes populous Lake County, suburban Porter County and more rural Benton, Jasper and Newton Counties, went for Obama by a 90,511 - 81,218, even though Obama only won Lake County.
This endorsement follows that of Congressman Joe Donnelly, of the adjacent 2nd Congressional District which contains South Bend. Surprisingly, Donnelly endorsed Obama despite his district leaning toward Clinton by a 72,554 - 69,747 result.
Joining Visclosky as a new Obama endorser are Lauren Wolfe and Awais Khaleel, the President and Vice-President of College Democrats of America, and superdelegates from Michigan and Wisconsin (respectively) representing the College Democrats of America. Wolfe and Khaleel's endorsement of Obama follows that of Crystal Strait, who is a California superdelegate representing the Young Democrats of America for the DNC.
As part of an online contest that would help determine their endorsements, CDA vice-president Khaleel and CDA President Lauren Wolfe received thousands of emails, facebook messages and youtube home videos describing the support of college-age democrats from across the country for their candidate of choice. Not surprisingly, Senator Obama was the clear favorite of the youth vote.
Wolfe's endorsement does not officially count toward the Obama superdelegate total, as she is considered part of Michigan's unpledged delegate total. Khaleel, on the other hand, adds to Obama's superdelegate lead with his endorsement.
Finally, Obama picked up a half-delegate when Democrats Abroad Chair Christine Schon Marques annoucned her support for the Illinois Senator.
Visclosky represents the northwest portion of Indiana, which is within the Chicago media market and neighbors Senator Obama's home state. Visclosky's congressional district, which includes populous Lake County, suburban Porter County and more rural Benton, Jasper and Newton Counties, went for Obama by a 90,511 - 81,218, even though Obama only won Lake County.
This endorsement follows that of Congressman Joe Donnelly, of the adjacent 2nd Congressional District which contains South Bend. Surprisingly, Donnelly endorsed Obama despite his district leaning toward Clinton by a 72,554 - 69,747 result.
Joining Visclosky as a new Obama endorser are Lauren Wolfe and Awais Khaleel, the President and Vice-President of College Democrats of America, and superdelegates from Michigan and Wisconsin (respectively) representing the College Democrats of America. Wolfe and Khaleel's endorsement of Obama follows that of Crystal Strait, who is a California superdelegate representing the Young Democrats of America for the DNC.
As part of an online contest that would help determine their endorsements, CDA vice-president Khaleel and CDA President Lauren Wolfe received thousands of emails, facebook messages and youtube home videos describing the support of college-age democrats from across the country for their candidate of choice. Not surprisingly, Senator Obama was the clear favorite of the youth vote.
Wolfe's endorsement does not officially count toward the Obama superdelegate total, as she is considered part of Michigan's unpledged delegate total. Khaleel, on the other hand, adds to Obama's superdelegate lead with his endorsement.
Finally, Obama picked up a half-delegate when Democrats Abroad Chair Christine Schon Marques annoucned her support for the Illinois Senator.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Looks Like a 64%-31% Victory for Clinton
If the exit polls can be extrapolated by any means, it looks like Clinton will pull out a 33% margin of victory over Obama today in West Virginia.
If these numbers hold, then Clinton should be able to garner 4 of the 6 pledged delegates in each of West Virginia's three Congressional Districts. That would give her 12 of 18 from those districts plus a probable 7 of 10 pledged at-large/LEO delegates as well, for a 19-9 pledged delegate victory over Obama.
If Obama is able to keep Clinton under 58.5% in one of the three Congressional Districts, that would mean he would probably end up down 18-10 in the pledged delegate count after today for W.V.
According to the exit polls, Clinton is nowhere near the 75% of the vote she'd need in each Congressional District to pull off a 5-1 split in the three districts each.
If somehow Obama were to hold Clinton to a 58% -- 40% type of victory, and Clinton could not clear 58.5% in each of the three Congressional Districts, then you would see a damaging 9-9 split among pledged delegates from the districts, and with only a probable 6-4 split of the pledged at-large/LEO delegates, that would only yield a 15-13 pledged delegate result for the Clinton campaign.
UPDATE: CLINTON IS BEING CREDITED WITH A 67% - 26% VICTORY OVER OBAMA, A 51% MARGIN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS BREAKSDOWN IN TERMS OF DELEGATES.
If these numbers hold, then Clinton should be able to garner 4 of the 6 pledged delegates in each of West Virginia's three Congressional Districts. That would give her 12 of 18 from those districts plus a probable 7 of 10 pledged at-large/LEO delegates as well, for a 19-9 pledged delegate victory over Obama.
If Obama is able to keep Clinton under 58.5% in one of the three Congressional Districts, that would mean he would probably end up down 18-10 in the pledged delegate count after today for W.V.
According to the exit polls, Clinton is nowhere near the 75% of the vote she'd need in each Congressional District to pull off a 5-1 split in the three districts each.
If somehow Obama were to hold Clinton to a 58% -- 40% type of victory, and Clinton could not clear 58.5% in each of the three Congressional Districts, then you would see a damaging 9-9 split among pledged delegates from the districts, and with only a probable 6-4 split of the pledged at-large/LEO delegates, that would only yield a 15-13 pledged delegate result for the Clinton campaign.
UPDATE: CLINTON IS BEING CREDITED WITH A 67% - 26% VICTORY OVER OBAMA, A 51% MARGIN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS BREAKSDOWN IN TERMS OF DELEGATES.
Pre-West Virginia Delegate Review
News outlets today reported two stories that alter the pledged delegate counts for both candidates.
First, the final pledged delegate to be allocated from North Carolina was awarded to Senator Obama, giving him a 65 to 50 edge in that state, and a net +11 pledged delegate lead from both contests last week.
Second, a Clinton pledged delegate from Maryland confirmed that he would be voting for Obama at the Convention, effectively taking a pledged delegate away from Clinton while adding one to Obama's total. Prince George's County Executive Jack Johnson used to be an Obama supporter and then switched to Clinton and now has switched back to Obama.
This news, in addition to the three new automatic delegates and one new add-on delegate for Obama, brings the race to this point:
Pledged Delegates: Obama 1592 -- Clinton 1425
Automatic Delegates: Obama 266 -- Clinton 265.5
Add-On Delegates: Obama 17 -- Clinton 10
TOTAL DELEGATES: OBAMA 1875 -- CLINTON 1700.5
First, the final pledged delegate to be allocated from North Carolina was awarded to Senator Obama, giving him a 65 to 50 edge in that state, and a net +11 pledged delegate lead from both contests last week.
Second, a Clinton pledged delegate from Maryland confirmed that he would be voting for Obama at the Convention, effectively taking a pledged delegate away from Clinton while adding one to Obama's total. Prince George's County Executive Jack Johnson used to be an Obama supporter and then switched to Clinton and now has switched back to Obama.
This news, in addition to the three new automatic delegates and one new add-on delegate for Obama, brings the race to this point:
Pledged Delegates: Obama 1592 -- Clinton 1425
Automatic Delegates: Obama 266 -- Clinton 265.5
Add-On Delegates: Obama 17 -- Clinton 10
TOTAL DELEGATES: OBAMA 1875 -- CLINTON 1700.5
Four More Supers Declare for Obama
Another day sees another quartet of superdelegates that has endorsed Senator Obama.
Congressman Joe Donnelly of Indiana announced his support for Obama today, citing Obama's ability to effect bipartisanship and unity in the country.
Also jumping on board with the Obama campaign is Louisiana Add-On Delegate C. Ray Nagin, Mayor of New Orleans.
Washington DC Party Chair Anita Bonds also made her preference known, choosing Obama.
Finally, Roy Romer, former Colorado Governor and Democratic National Committee Chairman, endorsed Obama and called for the party to rally around the Illinois Senator as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Congressman Joe Donnelly of Indiana announced his support for Obama today, citing Obama's ability to effect bipartisanship and unity in the country.
Also jumping on board with the Obama campaign is Louisiana Add-On Delegate C. Ray Nagin, Mayor of New Orleans.
Washington DC Party Chair Anita Bonds also made her preference known, choosing Obama.
Finally, Roy Romer, former Colorado Governor and Democratic National Committee Chairman, endorsed Obama and called for the party to rally around the Illinois Senator as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Monday, May 12, 2008
How Many Delegates Can Clinton Win Tomorrow?
Current polls have Clinton expected to win West Virginia by a huge margin, perhaps by 30% to 40% statewide.
West Virginia has 28 pledged delegates up for grabs, and the Clinton campaign is hoping a blowout victory can help close the pledged delegate gap and make their case to the superdelegates even stronger.
But how will the West Virginia delegates be allocated?
According to Green Papers, 18 of the 28 pledged delegates will be awarded on a district level, seven will be awarded based on statewide performance as At-Large Pledged Delegates and three more will be assigned Pledged LEOs.
The 18 pledged delegates assigned by district will be broken up into six pledged delelgates for each of the state's three congressional districts.
This allocation of a large, even number of delegates per district contest is a negative feature for the Clinton campaign.
In Texas, which had several districts with six or more delegates, the threshold required to capture a large majority of in-district delegates is much higher than in a district with only four delegates, for example.
According to the Texas Primary Delegate Calculator, this is what happens:
For a candidate to win all six delegates, the opponent must fail to clear the 15% viability threshold in the district. Obama will certainly carry this low bar of viability.
To win 5-1, a candidate must win by a 75% to 50% margin. There are other nuances when there are more than two candidates, but for this contest between Clinton and Obama, Clinton must capture 3/4 of the votes in a congressional district to win a 5-1 victory in pledged delegates. Again, Obama may be in a bit of danger of not reaching this 25% threshold, but most likely he will clear it in each district.
A 4-2 victory would mean that Senator Clinton would have to take in between 58.5% and 75% of the vote in the district. This is the most likely scenario to occur for each of the three districts, which means that Clinton would carry 12 of 18 pledged delegates allocated by district.
It might be possible, though for Obama to keep Clinton under 58.5% in at least one district, which would force a 3-3 split of the delegates. If that were to happen in just one district, the final outcome of the district-level pledged delegates would be 11-7, only a four delegate advantage for Clinton.
Throw in a 7-3 split at most for the at-large delegates, and perhaps even a 6-4 split if Obama does a bit better than current polling, and you could see in the best case scenario for Obama a 17-11 split of pledged delegates. Best case scenario for the Clinton campaign will be a 19-9 split, perhaps even a 20-8 split if a district goes over 75% for her.
Obama's lead in pledged delegates will most certainly stay above 150 after tomorrow, as it currently is 164.
West Virginia has 28 pledged delegates up for grabs, and the Clinton campaign is hoping a blowout victory can help close the pledged delegate gap and make their case to the superdelegates even stronger.
But how will the West Virginia delegates be allocated?
According to Green Papers, 18 of the 28 pledged delegates will be awarded on a district level, seven will be awarded based on statewide performance as At-Large Pledged Delegates and three more will be assigned Pledged LEOs.
The 18 pledged delegates assigned by district will be broken up into six pledged delelgates for each of the state's three congressional districts.
This allocation of a large, even number of delegates per district contest is a negative feature for the Clinton campaign.
In Texas, which had several districts with six or more delegates, the threshold required to capture a large majority of in-district delegates is much higher than in a district with only four delegates, for example.
According to the Texas Primary Delegate Calculator, this is what happens:
For a candidate to win all six delegates, the opponent must fail to clear the 15% viability threshold in the district. Obama will certainly carry this low bar of viability.
To win 5-1, a candidate must win by a 75% to 50% margin. There are other nuances when there are more than two candidates, but for this contest between Clinton and Obama, Clinton must capture 3/4 of the votes in a congressional district to win a 5-1 victory in pledged delegates. Again, Obama may be in a bit of danger of not reaching this 25% threshold, but most likely he will clear it in each district.
A 4-2 victory would mean that Senator Clinton would have to take in between 58.5% and 75% of the vote in the district. This is the most likely scenario to occur for each of the three districts, which means that Clinton would carry 12 of 18 pledged delegates allocated by district.
It might be possible, though for Obama to keep Clinton under 58.5% in at least one district, which would force a 3-3 split of the delegates. If that were to happen in just one district, the final outcome of the district-level pledged delegates would be 11-7, only a four delegate advantage for Clinton.
Throw in a 7-3 split at most for the at-large delegates, and perhaps even a 6-4 split if Obama does a bit better than current polling, and you could see in the best case scenario for Obama a 17-11 split of pledged delegates. Best case scenario for the Clinton campaign will be a 19-9 split, perhaps even a 20-8 split if a district goes over 75% for her.
Obama's lead in pledged delegates will most certainly stay above 150 after tomorrow, as it currently is 164.
Clinton Matrix: May 12th Edition
This is the latest version of the Clinton Matrix. Even if Clinton manages to capture 60% of all remaining pledged and add-on delegates, she will need over 96% of all remaining automatic delegates (non-add-on superdelegates) to choose her.
Senator Clinton should keep pace above the 60+% share of delegates needed to stay alive after tomorrow's contest in West Virginia. However, of concern is that West Virginia only has three congressional districts, with each having 6 delegates. The other 10 delegates to be won are based on the statewide vote. This lack of odd-delegate districts may work to neutralize the delegate proportion of her victory tomorrow.
On a further note, I cleaned up the formulas a bit in the spreadsheet so that the numbers are a bit more accurate. This version is entirely accurate in terms of percent of automatic delegates needed for a Clinton victory pending her results in the pledged and add-on delegate categories.
Obama Picks up another Fantastic Four: Senator, Congressman, State Chair and DNC Super Declare
Four new superdelegates are in the Obama column, raising him above Senator Clinton in the superdelegate count by NBC's estimation, and expanding his lead in other news services' counts.
The day started off with Hawai'i DNC superdelegate Dolly Strazar making her announcement, citing the need to rally behind Obama and to support her state's 'favorite son', who won the Hawaii contest handily.
Later, Congressman Tom Allen from Maine threw his support to Senator Obama, hoping that his announcement and the announcements of other superdelegates would help bring the primary to a "graceful end".
Back in Hawai'i, previously uncommitted Senator Daniel Akaka decided to endorse Obama as well:
The fourth superdelegate to announce for Obama today is Idaho State Party Chair R. Keith Roark, whose decision gives Obama a clean sweep of (four) Idaho superdelegates in the primary. If Obama's tremendous 79%-17% victory in Idaho wasn't enough of a factor, former President Clinton's recent comments deriding Idaho's role in the Democratic Party probably sealed the deal.
Obama now leads Clinton in Pledged Delegates (1590 - 1426), Superdelegates (279 - 276.5) and as a result, in Total Delegates (1869 - 1702.5).
The day started off with Hawai'i DNC superdelegate Dolly Strazar making her announcement, citing the need to rally behind Obama and to support her state's 'favorite son', who won the Hawaii contest handily.
Later, Congressman Tom Allen from Maine threw his support to Senator Obama, hoping that his announcement and the announcements of other superdelegates would help bring the primary to a "graceful end".
Back in Hawai'i, previously uncommitted Senator Daniel Akaka decided to endorse Obama as well:
Rather than echo his supporters or review his platform on health care, the
environment, or the war in Iraq, I want to add a different voice to those who
believe Senator Obama would make a fine President. He is the antidote we need to cure Washington of the uninspired, partisan politics that has plagued our country far too long.What makes him uniquely qualified? A March 2008 feature in Vanity Fair magazine offers a clue: “He was born and came of age in Hawaii, the 50th state and in many ways among the freest‑thinking, where mixed‑race ancestry is …a given... If Obama comes across as a bit of a softy—if you don’t see the toughness or the ambition at first—it may be in part because he spent his formative years in a place where ‘Live Aloha’ had not yet become a slogan aimed at recapturing a more gracious time, but was simply a way of life.”
I have great hope, that in his own way, Barack Obama will achieve what I have
been working to accomplish my entire Congressional career, more tolerance and
understanding, an appreciation for common goals and interests, rather than an
emphasis on our differences.
The fourth superdelegate to announce for Obama today is Idaho State Party Chair R. Keith Roark, whose decision gives Obama a clean sweep of (four) Idaho superdelegates in the primary. If Obama's tremendous 79%-17% victory in Idaho wasn't enough of a factor, former President Clinton's recent comments deriding Idaho's role in the Democratic Party probably sealed the deal.
Obama now leads Clinton in Pledged Delegates (1590 - 1426), Superdelegates (279 - 276.5) and as a result, in Total Delegates (1869 - 1702.5).
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Young Democrats for America Superdelegate Endorses Obama
Crystal Strait, a Young Democrats of America Board Member and Superdelegate from California, has declared Obama as her candidate of choice.
From the Obama campaign, here is Strait's endorsement:
From the Obama campaign, here is Strait's endorsement:
While representing the Young Democrats of America at the DNC, my number one
priority is to ensure that young people are fully represented at the polls and
in the Party. Barack Obama has shown a real commitment to young voters in his
campaign and in response young people have overwhelmingly voted and caucused for
Obama in these primary contests. We know that if a young person votes three
times in a row for a Party, they become a Party voter for life. We know that
because of high youth turnout in 2004 and 2006, 2008 is the third and critical
election for young voters. And that's why I know I want to pledge my delegate
vote to Barack Obama.
Second Ohio Add-On Delegate Named (but Uncommitted)
The fifth add-on delegate to be decided this weekend has finally been named.
William Bashein received the second Add-On Delegate spot for the Ohio delegation to the National Convention. So far there is no word on whom Bashein will endorse, but Bonobo at Bluebexley.com is under the impression that the Ohio Add-On Delegates will be "collectively neutral", meaning that there will be a 1-1 split in support for the presidential candidates.
Since the first Ohio Add-On Delegate Dave Regan already has endorsed Obama, it would then follow that Bashein would support Clinton. Although, according to Bonobo, Bashein is a big Edwards supporter and his current allegiances are unknown.
William Bashein received the second Add-On Delegate spot for the Ohio delegation to the National Convention. So far there is no word on whom Bashein will endorse, but Bonobo at Bluebexley.com is under the impression that the Ohio Add-On Delegates will be "collectively neutral", meaning that there will be a 1-1 split in support for the presidential candidates.
Since the first Ohio Add-On Delegate Dave Regan already has endorsed Obama, it would then follow that Bashein would support Clinton. Although, according to Bonobo, Bashein is a big Edwards supporter and his current allegiances are unknown.
Second Massachussetts Add-On Selected, but Not Committed
Demconwatch caught the story in the Boston Globe that described the events of the day at the Massachussetts State Democratic Party Convention. It appears that the second add-on delegate selected is Attorney General Martha Coakley.
No word if she will support Clinton or Obama.
No word if she will support Clinton or Obama.
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