There is some confusion as to whether or not Obama lost a delegate or not, in the overall scheme of things. Some reports said that the net result of the day was Obama -1 and Edwards +1.
However, this article attempts to explain the intricate system of alloting delegates that Iowa uses, and actually makes the case that Obama picked up a delegate.
So, who's right?
I will admit that I have been confused by the way that Iowa selects its delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The total number of delegates allocated through the District Convention this past weekend was 29.
Iowa is sending 57 Total Delegates to the National Convention, with the breakdown as follows:
45 Pledged Delegates:
--29 District Delegates
--10 At-Large Delegates
--06 Pledged PLEOS
12 Superdelegate/Add-on Delegates:
--11 Unpledged PLEOS (otherwise known as superdelegates)
--01 Unpledged Add-on DelegateHere's what happened since Election Night on January 3rd, 2008.
January 3rd, 2008
45 Delegates were up for grabs, in one of three categories:
District Delegates (29)
At-Large Delegates (6)
Pledged PLEOs (10)
The first category, District Delegates, is allocated based on the viability formula for each Congressional District in the state. On June 3rd, this breakdown came down as follows:
CANDIDATE: (CD1) / (CD2) / (CD3) / (CD4) / (CD5)
Obama: (2)/(3)/(2)/(2)/(1)
Edwards: (2)/(2)/(2)/(2)/(1)
Clinton: (2)/(2)/(2)/(2)/(2)
So, for the first 29 delegates, the breakdown was Obama 10, Clinton 10, Edwards 9.
The second category, At-Large Delegates, are allocated to each candidate based on the total statewide percentage allocation of caucus votes. All three candidates split the vote in essentially a three-way tie, so each candidate picked up 2 delegates each from the At-Large Delegate category.
So, for the first 35 delegates, the breakdown was Obama 12, Clinton 12, Edwards 11.
The third category, Pledged PLEOS, are allocated in the same manner as the At-Large Delegates--based on allocation of the caucus vote. With a number of delegates (10) that leaves a remainder after dividing by three, the extra delegate to be allocated naturally went to Obama who collected the most number of votes that night. Obama picked up 4 delegates while Clinton and Edwards picked up 3 apiece.
So, for the 45 pledged delegates allocated on January 3rd, the breakdown was Obama 16, Clinton 15, Edwards 14.
March 15, 2008
Heading into the County Caucus Conventions, the allocation was Obama 16, Clinton 15 and Edwards 14 for national delegates. However, this event allowed for the Edwards supporters to defect to Obama or Clinton if they so chose because of Edwards no longer being in the race.
With defections in each of the Congressional Districts, the delegate allocation changed as each candidate rose above or sunk below certain viability thresholds that determined whether each candidate gained or lost delegates.
After January 3rd, the split was Obama 10, Clinton 10 and Edwards 9 based on Congressional Districts alone.
Congressional District 1 went from O-2, C-2, E-2 to O-4, C-2, E-0. Obama +2, Edwards -2
Congressional District 2 went from O-3, C-2, E-2 to O-4, C-2, E-1. Obama +1, Edwards -1
Congressional District 3 went from O-2, C-2, E-2 to O-3, C-2, E-1. Obama +1, Edwards -1
Congressional District 4 went from O-2, C-2, E-2 to O-4, C-2, E-0. Obama +2, Edwards -2
Congressional District 5 went from O-1, C-2, E-1 to O-2, C-1, E-1. Obama +1, Clinton -1
As a result of this day's events, Obama gained 7 delegates, Edwards lost 6 and Clinton lost 1, to make the District allocation Obama 17, Clinton 9, Edwards 3.
These events affected the allocation of Pledged At-Large delegates and Pledged PLEOS, also, given the shift in delegate totals.
Pledged At-Large Delegates were split 2-2-2 among the three candidates in January. Now there were split O-3, C-2, E-1. Obama +1, Edwards -1
Pledged PLEOS were also split, O-4, C-3, E-3. Now, they were split O-5, C-3, E-2. Obama +1, Edwards -1.
After all was said and done, Obama netted +9 delegates, Clinton -1 and Edwards -8
District Delegates: Obama 17, Clinton 9, Edwards 3.
Total Pledged Delegates: Obama 25, Clinton 14, Edwards 6.
April 26, 2008
At the Congressional District Convention, the delegates for the National Convention are actually selected for the first time, allowing for a bit of redistribution of the allocation of delegates for each Congressional District from what was seen in the prior two events.
The At-Large delegates and Pledged PLEO delegates were not up for change at this event.
Coming into this event, Obama had 17 District delegates, Clinton had 9 District delegates and Edwards had 3 District delegates. However, Edwards had two opportunities to regain viability in two of the five Congressional Districts, which would strip a delegate from the prior leader in that District.
In Congressional District 1, Edwards regained viability and took a delegate from Obama, shifting the delegate balance from O-4, C-2, E-0 to O-3, C-2, E-1. Obama -1, Edwards +1
In Congressional District 2, there was no change in delegates. O-4, C-2, E-1.
In Congressional District 3, there was no change in delegates. O-3, C-2, E-1.
In Congressional District 4, Edwards was not able to gain viability, which would have taken back a delegate from Obama. Result: O-4, C-2, E-0
In Congressional District 5, no shift in delegates was made. If Edwards, who barely had viability here, had lost enough voters, then Clinton would have picked up the extra delegate and have created a 2-2 tie with Obama. However, this district remained O-2, C-1, E-1.
OVERALL, the change from the County Convention to the final result of the District Conventions was Obama -1, Edwards +1.
For the 29 District Delegates to the National Convention, Obama will carry 16 delegates, Clinton 9 and Edwards 4.
Adding the Pledged PLEOS and Pledged At-Large delegates, the current count for Pledged Delegates to the National Convention for each candidate are:
OBAMA: 24
CLINTON: 14
EDWARDS: 7
CONVENTION POLITICS:
Here's where the politics came into play. There were three delegates at play over this weekend that could have shifted and altered the count for each candidate. By accounts of participants at the Convention, these strategies emerged:
In CD 1, Edwards needed just a handful of votes to move into viability in this district. Since this new viability would take one of Obama's 4 delegates, it behooved Clinton to lend some of her votes to Edwards to decrease Obama's haul by one and shift that delegate to Edwards, with no negative effect on her own delegates. This strategy paid off and Edwards took an Obama delegate. O-3, C-2, E-1
In CD 4, Clinton's voters tried to employ the same strategy as in CD 1, but were unsuccessful in negotiating an acceptable agreement with the Edwards' supporters to give viability to Edwards. Some have previously reported that this district was O-3, C-2, and 1 undecided prior, so Obama going to 4 is considered a pickup. For those that had seen this district as O-4, C-2, E-0 before the weekend, this district had no change. Semantics, really.
In CD5, Edwards was again near the viability threshold, this time barely above it. With only four delegates, the breakdown was O-2, C-1, E-1 heading into this last weekend. If Edwards lost viability, then Clinton would have picked up the delegate. I do not know if the Edwards supporters stayed put or if Obama supporters had to augment their ranks to maintain viability.
Of these three delegates up for grab, the optimal situation for Obama was O-10, C-5, E-1, with an Obama net of +5.
The optimal situation for Clinton was O-8, C-6, E-2, with an Obama net of +2.
The final situation for these three CDs? O-9, C-5, E-2, with an Obama net of +4. It seems that Obama was able to make the best of this situation while Clinton was able to keep on delegate away from Obama at this time.
Please feel free to send me a note if you think this article needs more clarification.
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