Meet the Superdelegates

G) The Superdelegates

Of the 4,049 total delegates available to the candidates, 796 (19.7%) of these delegates are superdelegates. Superdelegates are not bound by the results of any specific contest; rather, these superdelegates are able to endorse any candidate they want at any time and to change their mind at any time, even up until the convention.

These superdelegates are largely from a group of people selected on the basis of their holding elected office or on the basis of their position with or loyalty to the DNC.

So far Senator Clinton outpaces Senator Obama in this category of declared superdelegates by approximately 23. By most counts Senator Clinton has 256 superdelegates and Senator Obama has 233.

Accurate counts are not always easy to obtain given the informality by which superdelegates sometimes make their decisions known, or by a change of heart that may not be yet recorded, or by assumptions made by different new sources about who supports whom.

For Senator Clinton to have any credible chance of winning the nomination by reaching 2,025 total delegates, she will need to rely heavily on the superdelegates to align themselves with her.

According to projections based on the strengths of each candidate in each of the remaining contests, and the proportional delegate allocation method in play, it is likely that Senator Clinton will win between 185 and 205 of the remaining 408 delegates remaining.

In the best case scenario, with 205 more pledged delegates, Senator Clinton will end the primary season with 1797 total delegates, assuming no more superdelegates select her by June 3rd.

To reach the magic number of 2,025 total delegates, she would need 227 of the remaining 306 uncommitted or unnamed superdelegates, excluding any gains with Edwards' pledged delegates. This represents 74% of the remaining undecided superdelegates left, which is a stark number compared to the fact that Senator Obama has outgained Senator Clinton in declared superdelegates on a consistent basis since Super Tuesday, closing the gap from 93 superdelegates to 23.

Even in the first two days since Clinton prevailed in Pennsylvania, Obama has netted two more superdelegates, outgaining Clinton 3 to 1.

If the superdelegates are to make or break Senator Clinton's candidacy, they will need to break toward her by a 3-to-1 margin in total.