Saturday, June 7, 2008
Yes, Hillary Clinton Is Now an Obama Superdelegate
In case you were wondering...her official endorsement of Barack Obama technically means she's a superdelegate for Obama now, even though she may well vote for herself still on the floor of the Convention.
Mississippi Democrats Elect AG Jim Hood as add-on delegate
Finally found some confirmation here at this live blog from the Mississippi Convention.
Looks like Attorney General Jim Hood was elected as the "unpledged delegate to the convention", which translates into add-on.
No word yet officially if Hood has allegiances to either candidate.
Looks like Attorney General Jim Hood was elected as the "unpledged delegate to the convention", which translates into add-on.
No word yet officially if Hood has allegiances to either candidate.
Still Waiting for Add-On News from Today
11 add-on delegates were at stake today in key states of Pennsylvania, Texas, Kentucky and three other states (Vermont, Minnesota, Mississippi), and one more from Montana is at stake on Sunday.
I wrote here about how the add-on delegate results from Pennsylvania, Texas and Kentucky were separate tests for Senator and Presumptive Democratic Nominee Barack Obama on how unified the party was at this point in time.
I was perusing the different blogs and news sites from each state convention trying to glean some information.
From Texas I find that a controversy of sorts erupted when the tradition of electing the head of the AFL-CIO as an add-on delegate was imperiled by the fact that this person this year is Becky Moeller, who supported Senator Clinton in the primary, when the Obama campaign is pushing for all three add-on delegates as a show of strength and unity.
The appointment of the AFL-CIO head as an add-on delegate is deemed traditional in Texas, so going against this tradition is ruffling feathers. Also, Moeller is the first female head of the Texas AFL-CIO. So bumping her out not only hurts labor relations, but also gender relations in a state with a strong split between the two candidates. The blogger seems to believe that there is some compromise in the works between the two campaigns, which are having to de-escalate from full-on war quickly since Tuesday.
From Mississippi an unverified report suggests that the add-on delegate selected was a Hillary supporter, which is odd considering that Obama won the state heavily.
The other states are just simply impossible to track down anything right now. Hopefully something will become available by tomorrow.
I wrote here about how the add-on delegate results from Pennsylvania, Texas and Kentucky were separate tests for Senator and Presumptive Democratic Nominee Barack Obama on how unified the party was at this point in time.
I was perusing the different blogs and news sites from each state convention trying to glean some information.
From Texas I find that a controversy of sorts erupted when the tradition of electing the head of the AFL-CIO as an add-on delegate was imperiled by the fact that this person this year is Becky Moeller, who supported Senator Clinton in the primary, when the Obama campaign is pushing for all three add-on delegates as a show of strength and unity.
The appointment of the AFL-CIO head as an add-on delegate is deemed traditional in Texas, so going against this tradition is ruffling feathers. Also, Moeller is the first female head of the Texas AFL-CIO. So bumping her out not only hurts labor relations, but also gender relations in a state with a strong split between the two candidates. The blogger seems to believe that there is some compromise in the works between the two campaigns, which are having to de-escalate from full-on war quickly since Tuesday.
From Mississippi an unverified report suggests that the add-on delegate selected was a Hillary supporter, which is odd considering that Obama won the state heavily.
The other states are just simply impossible to track down anything right now. Hopefully something will become available by tomorrow.
Friday, June 6, 2008
More Primary Post-Mortems
Some fascinating post-mortems being discussed right now on the web, including these exchanges of ideas as documented by Ben Smith and on First Read.
From Chuck Todd of MSNBC's First Read
Ben Smith posts an alternative take from Matt Seyfang.
And from First Read's Athena Jones, who was embedded with Senator Clinton's campaign:
Reflections on 5,400 hours with Hillary
Posted: Friday, June 06, 2008 10:27 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2008, Clinton
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
The end.
Hillary Clinton's announcement that she will congratulate Obama on Saturday and extend her support to him brings to a close the first chapter in the gripping, cable-news-ratings-boosting drama that is the 2008 election.
I covered the once-"inevitable" nominee from September to late April, when I was reassigned to Obama's plane. What follows is this embedded reporter's take on the best, and only, political story I've ever followed on such a massive, exhausting, exhilarating, demanding scale -- a close-up view of the unique form of life-giving, yet life-consuming, submersion that has come to define modern-day political campaigns.
Things fall apart, the center cannot hold...
Among the lessons learned over these many months: One, whatever the final judgment on Bill Clinton's effect on this race, which by most accounts was Hillary's to lose, and the value of his brand, one thing is sure, he is no longer the much-loved, well-respected king of the party in many people's eyes. (Nor is he likely to be referred to again as "the first black president," even in jest.) Two, as much as the media's hunger for metaphors may at times overreach, it turns out that a campaign's organization or lack thereof is a good indicator of the candidate's ability to win.
VIDEO: NBC News and National Journal campaign reporter Athena Jones explores what it takes for journalists to survive life on a campaign trail.
Many have cited Clinton's vacillations on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants in last fall's Philadelphia debate as the first sign of trouble, but the great unraveling didn't truly begin until January 3.
Iowa was a shock. It stung the Clintons. The former first lady managed to turn New Hampshire into the stage for a remake of "The Comeback Kid," but the campaign never truly recovered from that Iowa defeat. It never fully digested what the loss said about their assumptions and their strategy.
The size and scope of the loss also surprised many of us on the Clinton bus. And yet a week earlier, at an "Orphan Christmas dinner" for a dozen or so reporters stranded in Des Moines on an unusually balmy Christmas Day, most of those assembled -- many of whom had covered Obama extensively for months -- had been convinced he was going to win. Big.
The Clinton team tried to maintain their grip on the suddenly slippery cloak of inevitability. The dizzying spin began on the boozy, wee-hours flight from Des Moines to Manchester, when aides played down the small state and the amount of influence it would have.
If only. As is clear now, Iowa allowed Obama to catch fire, a fire gained speed and strength during the crucial month of February and ultimately proved fatal for the Clintons. From the start, theirs had been a big-state strategy that paid little attention to caucuses. Bill hadn't done well in them either, the New York senator grew fond of reminding reporters in the midst of her series of losses in February.
They had hoped a win in that first crucial contest would send them on their way. The problem with Iowa was that the main lesson they took away from their devastating third-place finish was not that they had underestimated the youth vote, or Obama's ability to appeal to white voters in small Iowa towns, or that they needed to adjust their message. Instead, they concluded that caucuses were a sham, all but ceding all future caucus states -- save Nevada -- to their rival and allowing him to rack up the kind of lead in pledged delegates, states won, momentum, and overall hype that seemed to invalidate their argument to superdelegates that she was the candidate best-poised to win in November.
At times, life on the trail felt like it was playing out in Bizarro World. There were explosions of laughter on the press bus during a February 16 conference call when Clinton aide Harold Ickes twisted himself into a pretzel trying to square his DNC vote to strip Florida and Michigan of their delegates with his then-position that they absolutely must be counted.
Reporters on the bus -- worn down by a brutal schedule of long days packed with multiple flights and back-to-back events -- grew to loathe the marathon calls (many lasted more than an hour) that became near-daily occurrences for a time, even though they offered the opportunity to ask questions of the team's top tier.
But back to those pesky caucuses. In New Hampshire -- a day or two after losing badly in the Hawkeye State and a day or two before women voters and teary eyes helped win her camp a reprieve from the political firing squad -- Clinton told the reporters jostling for position in a coffee shop that caucuses were undemocratic, and it was primaries that mattered.
Ouch. The problem: There were several more caucuses to go.
What are you trying to say?
Then there was the matter of the message and its messengers. Strength and experience seemed to be working at the beginning, but that was before voters began to tune into Obama's soaring, though vague, rhetoric and his calls for change.
So around December, Bill Clinton started calling Hillary a "world-class change agent" in his speeches, focusing on what he saw as his wife's proven ability to bring about change -- a valid but indirect argument when compared to Obama's clearer, simpler and apparently more inspiring one-word line: "Change." People know what change means, but what does "World-class change agent" mean exactly?
In a December 16 speech in Council Bluffs, IA, where she launched her abbreviated, "freezing fog"-hobbled Hill-a-copter tour, Clinton used some variation of the "change" or "new beginnings" theme 23 times in a 33-minute speech -- or about once every one-and-a-half minutes. But the Clintons' change argument didn't sell.
The logic was difficult to follow: How could someone who embraces her status as a throwback to the 90s -- even the booming, gilded 90s -- also represent change? It may have been possible to make a convincing argument, but the Clintons didn't. One reason was the legions of young Obama fans, the college students that few expected to actually show up on caucus day but who did. For many of them, Clinton was synonymous with the old school. Hillary as the status quo ante incarnate.
And there were the messengers, from Bill Clinton and Bob Johnson in South Carolina -- where their comments angered many black voters -- to message architect Mark Penn. Penn didn't see much value in emphasizing Hillary's "human side," even though she consistently wowed skeptical voters in face-to-face interactions and eventually proved to be warm, friendly and funny with the reporters on her campaign plane.
Clinton's campaign knew they had a charismatic orator as a rival, but it took them months to figure out what to do about it, as though it were enough to lament what they saw as media bias, stomp their feet -- metaphorically -- and wonder aloud why nobody but them could see that this guy was the embodiment of style over substance.
Around the time of the Wisconsin race, the Clinton campaign started trying to portray Obama's entire candidacy as one based on "just words." But it wasn't until Ohio that they threw a remix of Elvis' "A Little Less Conversation" onto their event soundtrack. It was a song that fit well with their talk vs. action, speeches-vs.-solutions line against Obama. Clinton sometimes liked to say politics was a means to an end, not an end in itself, and it was clear in the more intimate moments on the trail that she believed she was the candidate most ready for the job of president, the one who would be the best at it if she could just get there.
Still, the means matter, and that's where much seemed to go wrong -- the muddled message, the staff shake-ups, the mindset that led to her money crunch and the lack of a post-Feb. 5 strategy, which kept her from competing effectively that month.
It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.....
Looking back, there were the emblematic moments on the trail, the turning points, the low points -- and moments not always picked up on by the national network desks or the folks in the newsrooms back in Washington and New York.
In December at a Hy-Vee supermarket in Des Moines, IA, the Clinton team memorably lost control of Bill Clinton, leaving him alone, surrounded by reporters and forcing them to convene a press conference to re-focus the ravenous media on the candidate. The former president later signed a dollar bill for a fan -- while acknowledging the illegality of his actions -- only to have his wife refuse to do the same.
There was that moment at the end of a New Hampshire roundtable when the former first lady's eyes welled with tears. That event had bored the exhausted press corps into a near coma, but when the response to a seemingly innocuous question turned out to actually be interesting, the sudden buzz was like someone had hit a bee hive with a baseball bat. The rapid click, click, clicking of camera shutters, the frantic phone calls to news desks, the reporters darting to and fro chatting with the voters present, trying to measure the momentous-ness of the moment.
An early low point? The pseudo-victory bash in Davie, FL., after Clinton won that rogue state's non-consequential (at least according to DNC rules at the time) primary.There were also a lot of good times. The late night drinks on the campaign plane and in hotel bars, the numerous karaoke outings with reporters and campaign staff, the inside jokes only political junkies would understand or find funny. Hillary's shot of Crown Royal, her dancing at the Y. The April Fool's joke she played where she challenged Obama to a bowl-off.
It seems I switched bubbles when the real fun was only beginning. The campaign had finally decided to try to woo the press some time around the Nevada caucuses -- a time that coincided with the debut of the campaign plane dubbed Hill-Force-One.
By late April, Clinton was making a lot more forays to the back of the plane, but it was after I left that the giant blow-up Hillary doll made its debut and the senator took to dancing publicly a little more often and began to be more free about imbibing alcoholic beverages in front of -- and with -- the press corps.
So what about Obama? After covering some 300 Clinton events over seven-and-a-half months, I've now been the Obama plane for a little over a month -- armed with a press badge, which somewhat oddly broadcasts the "Change We Can Believe In" campaign slogan, along with a handy little map of America with a breakdown of electoral votes per state.
Obama is officially the presumptive nominee. Now what?
Early on, Clinton was fond of saying, "You can't be a leader if no one is following." You also can't be the nominee if not enough people are following, and that ended up being the case with her failed campaign.
At the Harkin Steak Fry last September, Obama arrived with an entourage that sounded like it came straight out of a U2 video. But even with all the talk of Obamamania, the Obamanon, and Martin Luther Obama, the question is: Will people keep following? And not just the young or the black or the college educated or the people in nearly all-white states, but the blue-collar workers, the Clinton backers, Appalachia?
Obama's candidacy has, in many ways, been a grand experiment with its own unique successes and its own challenges. Those challenges include a lack of legislative experience relative to McCain's and his wariness and distance from the media as contrasted with his voluble, personable Republican rival -- a man who embraces the press by comparison. Has Obama been tested well enough in this long, sometimes brutal primary race, as some argue?
What about Jeremiah Wright and Michael Pfleger? Will denouncing Wright and resigning his membership from Trinity United Church of Christ be enough to calm those angered by these men's messages and confused by whether Obama agrees with them?
What about William Ayers and Tony Rezko, flag pins and all the questions about the Pledge of Allegiance and his religion?
What about the unforced errors, like that disastrous bowling outing or the bitter-guns-religion comments? How long will those comments cling to him? How successful will the Republicans be in branding him as an out-of-touch elitist?
Won't the Republican Party have a field day with all of that? Can he stand the heat, as Clinton might ask?
What about race?
Finally, now that Clinton's campaign has joined those linking Obama to George McGovern -- in their case merely implicitly -- I can't help thinking about a passage in one of the many political books that have become required reading for anyone trying to tackle life on the bus.
In his 1973 treatise, Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72', Hunter S. Thompson quoted Ron Dellums -- currently the Oakland mayor and a Clinton supporter -- during July 1972.
Thompson writes that Dellums released this statement when he switched his support from Shirley Chisholm to McGovern: "The coalition that has formed behind Sen. McGovern has battled the odds, baffled the pollsters, and beat the bosses. It is my conviction that when that total coalition of the victims in this country is ever formed, this potential for change would be unheralded, for it could pose a real alternative to expediency and status quo politics in America."
Obama's idealism and his appeal to young voters, if not victims, has been compared -- fairly or not -- to the failed candidacy of McGovern, who was an early Clinton supporter until he switched recently.
How will that comparison bear out? Will the freshman senator from Illinois go down to defeat in a landslide or disprove that analysis and emerge victorious?
We have five more months of gripping, cable-news-ratings-boosting drama before we find out.
From Chuck Todd of MSNBC's First Read
Ben Smith posts an alternative take from Matt Seyfang.
And from First Read's Athena Jones, who was embedded with Senator Clinton's campaign:
Reflections on 5,400 hours with Hillary
Posted: Friday, June 06, 2008 10:27 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2008, Clinton
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
The end.
Hillary Clinton's announcement that she will congratulate Obama on Saturday and extend her support to him brings to a close the first chapter in the gripping, cable-news-ratings-boosting drama that is the 2008 election.
I covered the once-"inevitable" nominee from September to late April, when I was reassigned to Obama's plane. What follows is this embedded reporter's take on the best, and only, political story I've ever followed on such a massive, exhausting, exhilarating, demanding scale -- a close-up view of the unique form of life-giving, yet life-consuming, submersion that has come to define modern-day political campaigns.
Things fall apart, the center cannot hold...
Among the lessons learned over these many months: One, whatever the final judgment on Bill Clinton's effect on this race, which by most accounts was Hillary's to lose, and the value of his brand, one thing is sure, he is no longer the much-loved, well-respected king of the party in many people's eyes. (Nor is he likely to be referred to again as "the first black president," even in jest.) Two, as much as the media's hunger for metaphors may at times overreach, it turns out that a campaign's organization or lack thereof is a good indicator of the candidate's ability to win.
VIDEO: NBC News and National Journal campaign reporter Athena Jones explores what it takes for journalists to survive life on a campaign trail.
Many have cited Clinton's vacillations on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants in last fall's Philadelphia debate as the first sign of trouble, but the great unraveling didn't truly begin until January 3.
Iowa was a shock. It stung the Clintons. The former first lady managed to turn New Hampshire into the stage for a remake of "The Comeback Kid," but the campaign never truly recovered from that Iowa defeat. It never fully digested what the loss said about their assumptions and their strategy.
The size and scope of the loss also surprised many of us on the Clinton bus. And yet a week earlier, at an "Orphan Christmas dinner" for a dozen or so reporters stranded in Des Moines on an unusually balmy Christmas Day, most of those assembled -- many of whom had covered Obama extensively for months -- had been convinced he was going to win. Big.
The Clinton team tried to maintain their grip on the suddenly slippery cloak of inevitability. The dizzying spin began on the boozy, wee-hours flight from Des Moines to Manchester, when aides played down the small state and the amount of influence it would have.
If only. As is clear now, Iowa allowed Obama to catch fire, a fire gained speed and strength during the crucial month of February and ultimately proved fatal for the Clintons. From the start, theirs had been a big-state strategy that paid little attention to caucuses. Bill hadn't done well in them either, the New York senator grew fond of reminding reporters in the midst of her series of losses in February.
They had hoped a win in that first crucial contest would send them on their way. The problem with Iowa was that the main lesson they took away from their devastating third-place finish was not that they had underestimated the youth vote, or Obama's ability to appeal to white voters in small Iowa towns, or that they needed to adjust their message. Instead, they concluded that caucuses were a sham, all but ceding all future caucus states -- save Nevada -- to their rival and allowing him to rack up the kind of lead in pledged delegates, states won, momentum, and overall hype that seemed to invalidate their argument to superdelegates that she was the candidate best-poised to win in November.
At times, life on the trail felt like it was playing out in Bizarro World. There were explosions of laughter on the press bus during a February 16 conference call when Clinton aide Harold Ickes twisted himself into a pretzel trying to square his DNC vote to strip Florida and Michigan of their delegates with his then-position that they absolutely must be counted.
Reporters on the bus -- worn down by a brutal schedule of long days packed with multiple flights and back-to-back events -- grew to loathe the marathon calls (many lasted more than an hour) that became near-daily occurrences for a time, even though they offered the opportunity to ask questions of the team's top tier.
But back to those pesky caucuses. In New Hampshire -- a day or two after losing badly in the Hawkeye State and a day or two before women voters and teary eyes helped win her camp a reprieve from the political firing squad -- Clinton told the reporters jostling for position in a coffee shop that caucuses were undemocratic, and it was primaries that mattered.
Ouch. The problem: There were several more caucuses to go.
What are you trying to say?
Then there was the matter of the message and its messengers. Strength and experience seemed to be working at the beginning, but that was before voters began to tune into Obama's soaring, though vague, rhetoric and his calls for change.
So around December, Bill Clinton started calling Hillary a "world-class change agent" in his speeches, focusing on what he saw as his wife's proven ability to bring about change -- a valid but indirect argument when compared to Obama's clearer, simpler and apparently more inspiring one-word line: "Change." People know what change means, but what does "World-class change agent" mean exactly?
In a December 16 speech in Council Bluffs, IA, where she launched her abbreviated, "freezing fog"-hobbled Hill-a-copter tour, Clinton used some variation of the "change" or "new beginnings" theme 23 times in a 33-minute speech -- or about once every one-and-a-half minutes. But the Clintons' change argument didn't sell.
The logic was difficult to follow: How could someone who embraces her status as a throwback to the 90s -- even the booming, gilded 90s -- also represent change? It may have been possible to make a convincing argument, but the Clintons didn't. One reason was the legions of young Obama fans, the college students that few expected to actually show up on caucus day but who did. For many of them, Clinton was synonymous with the old school. Hillary as the status quo ante incarnate.
And there were the messengers, from Bill Clinton and Bob Johnson in South Carolina -- where their comments angered many black voters -- to message architect Mark Penn. Penn didn't see much value in emphasizing Hillary's "human side," even though she consistently wowed skeptical voters in face-to-face interactions and eventually proved to be warm, friendly and funny with the reporters on her campaign plane.
Clinton's campaign knew they had a charismatic orator as a rival, but it took them months to figure out what to do about it, as though it were enough to lament what they saw as media bias, stomp their feet -- metaphorically -- and wonder aloud why nobody but them could see that this guy was the embodiment of style over substance.
Around the time of the Wisconsin race, the Clinton campaign started trying to portray Obama's entire candidacy as one based on "just words." But it wasn't until Ohio that they threw a remix of Elvis' "A Little Less Conversation" onto their event soundtrack. It was a song that fit well with their talk vs. action, speeches-vs.-solutions line against Obama. Clinton sometimes liked to say politics was a means to an end, not an end in itself, and it was clear in the more intimate moments on the trail that she believed she was the candidate most ready for the job of president, the one who would be the best at it if she could just get there.
Still, the means matter, and that's where much seemed to go wrong -- the muddled message, the staff shake-ups, the mindset that led to her money crunch and the lack of a post-Feb. 5 strategy, which kept her from competing effectively that month.
It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.....
Looking back, there were the emblematic moments on the trail, the turning points, the low points -- and moments not always picked up on by the national network desks or the folks in the newsrooms back in Washington and New York.
In December at a Hy-Vee supermarket in Des Moines, IA, the Clinton team memorably lost control of Bill Clinton, leaving him alone, surrounded by reporters and forcing them to convene a press conference to re-focus the ravenous media on the candidate. The former president later signed a dollar bill for a fan -- while acknowledging the illegality of his actions -- only to have his wife refuse to do the same.
There was that moment at the end of a New Hampshire roundtable when the former first lady's eyes welled with tears. That event had bored the exhausted press corps into a near coma, but when the response to a seemingly innocuous question turned out to actually be interesting, the sudden buzz was like someone had hit a bee hive with a baseball bat. The rapid click, click, clicking of camera shutters, the frantic phone calls to news desks, the reporters darting to and fro chatting with the voters present, trying to measure the momentous-ness of the moment.
An early low point? The pseudo-victory bash in Davie, FL., after Clinton won that rogue state's non-consequential (at least according to DNC rules at the time) primary.There were also a lot of good times. The late night drinks on the campaign plane and in hotel bars, the numerous karaoke outings with reporters and campaign staff, the inside jokes only political junkies would understand or find funny. Hillary's shot of Crown Royal, her dancing at the Y. The April Fool's joke she played where she challenged Obama to a bowl-off.
It seems I switched bubbles when the real fun was only beginning. The campaign had finally decided to try to woo the press some time around the Nevada caucuses -- a time that coincided with the debut of the campaign plane dubbed Hill-Force-One.
By late April, Clinton was making a lot more forays to the back of the plane, but it was after I left that the giant blow-up Hillary doll made its debut and the senator took to dancing publicly a little more often and began to be more free about imbibing alcoholic beverages in front of -- and with -- the press corps.
So what about Obama? After covering some 300 Clinton events over seven-and-a-half months, I've now been the Obama plane for a little over a month -- armed with a press badge, which somewhat oddly broadcasts the "Change We Can Believe In" campaign slogan, along with a handy little map of America with a breakdown of electoral votes per state.
Obama is officially the presumptive nominee. Now what?
Early on, Clinton was fond of saying, "You can't be a leader if no one is following." You also can't be the nominee if not enough people are following, and that ended up being the case with her failed campaign.
At the Harkin Steak Fry last September, Obama arrived with an entourage that sounded like it came straight out of a U2 video. But even with all the talk of Obamamania, the Obamanon, and Martin Luther Obama, the question is: Will people keep following? And not just the young or the black or the college educated or the people in nearly all-white states, but the blue-collar workers, the Clinton backers, Appalachia?
Obama's candidacy has, in many ways, been a grand experiment with its own unique successes and its own challenges. Those challenges include a lack of legislative experience relative to McCain's and his wariness and distance from the media as contrasted with his voluble, personable Republican rival -- a man who embraces the press by comparison. Has Obama been tested well enough in this long, sometimes brutal primary race, as some argue?
What about Jeremiah Wright and Michael Pfleger? Will denouncing Wright and resigning his membership from Trinity United Church of Christ be enough to calm those angered by these men's messages and confused by whether Obama agrees with them?
What about William Ayers and Tony Rezko, flag pins and all the questions about the Pledge of Allegiance and his religion?
What about the unforced errors, like that disastrous bowling outing or the bitter-guns-religion comments? How long will those comments cling to him? How successful will the Republicans be in branding him as an out-of-touch elitist?
Won't the Republican Party have a field day with all of that? Can he stand the heat, as Clinton might ask?
What about race?
Finally, now that Clinton's campaign has joined those linking Obama to George McGovern -- in their case merely implicitly -- I can't help thinking about a passage in one of the many political books that have become required reading for anyone trying to tackle life on the bus.
In his 1973 treatise, Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72', Hunter S. Thompson quoted Ron Dellums -- currently the Oakland mayor and a Clinton supporter -- during July 1972.
Thompson writes that Dellums released this statement when he switched his support from Shirley Chisholm to McGovern: "The coalition that has formed behind Sen. McGovern has battled the odds, baffled the pollsters, and beat the bosses. It is my conviction that when that total coalition of the victims in this country is ever formed, this potential for change would be unheralded, for it could pose a real alternative to expediency and status quo politics in America."
Obama's idealism and his appeal to young voters, if not victims, has been compared -- fairly or not -- to the failed candidacy of McGovern, who was an early Clinton supporter until he switched recently.
How will that comparison bear out? Will the freshman senator from Illinois go down to defeat in a landslide or disprove that analysis and emerge victorious?
We have five more months of gripping, cable-news-ratings-boosting drama before we find out.
Obama Receives Endorsement of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
Senator Reid officially endorses Senator Barack Obama for President.
From his official statement:
“Over the past 16 months, tens of millions of Americans from all walks of life have been inspired to support Barack Obama’s historic campaign for President, and with good reason: he is a once-in-a-generation leader who connects with the hopes and dreams of the American people and will deliver the long-overdue change that our country desperately needs. I could not be more excited to have Senator Obama lead a united Democratic Party to victory in November and I am committed to doing everything I can to help.
“I also congratulate Hillary Clinton for her tremendous contributions in this campaign and for our country. She is a wonderful Senator and friend whose vision and determination have made our party stronger. There is no question that she will continue to be a force for change.
“As we turn to the general election, it is obvious that John McCain will try to rewrite his record and divorce himself from the disastrous Bush-Cheney policies he supports. But his record is clear. John McCain has the wrong judgment and temperament to be President, and we cannot afford any more of the same mistakes that have weakened our country and made us less secure.
“As our next President, Barack Obama will responsibly end the war in Iraq, make the American Dream affordable for working families once again, and deliver a government as good and honest as the people it represents. I look forward to working with him - and an expanded Democratic majority in Congress - to deliver this promise of change to the American people.”
From his official statement:
“Over the past 16 months, tens of millions of Americans from all walks of life have been inspired to support Barack Obama’s historic campaign for President, and with good reason: he is a once-in-a-generation leader who connects with the hopes and dreams of the American people and will deliver the long-overdue change that our country desperately needs. I could not be more excited to have Senator Obama lead a united Democratic Party to victory in November and I am committed to doing everything I can to help.
“I also congratulate Hillary Clinton for her tremendous contributions in this campaign and for our country. She is a wonderful Senator and friend whose vision and determination have made our party stronger. There is no question that she will continue to be a force for change.
“As we turn to the general election, it is obvious that John McCain will try to rewrite his record and divorce himself from the disastrous Bush-Cheney policies he supports. But his record is clear. John McCain has the wrong judgment and temperament to be President, and we cannot afford any more of the same mistakes that have weakened our country and made us less secure.
“As our next President, Barack Obama will responsibly end the war in Iraq, make the American Dream affordable for working families once again, and deliver a government as good and honest as the people it represents. I look forward to working with him - and an expanded Democratic majority in Congress - to deliver this promise of change to the American people.”
Obama Faces Three Separate Tests This Weekend (add-on delegate news)
It's anticlimatic, but the actions of three state conventions held this weekend, especially in light of the Clinton concession, will provide yet another indicator of how the Democratic Party will unify.
12 add-on delegates are at stake this weekend from seven states. Seven of the add-ons come from three states that are emblematic of the challenges Senator Obama inherits from the primary race and now faces in the general election.
How these three states resolve their add-on delegate selections may provide a window into how the party unifies, especially since these three states provide a microcosm of the problems Obama has faced so far in the primary:
Kentucky: 1 add-on -- A 36% blowout for Clinton, albeit uncontested by Obama. Kentucky symbolizes the Appalachia weakness for Obama, and is a state that along with West Virginia may be hardest for Obama to gain traction. A pick-up of an add-on delegate here shows that the Kentucky state party, at least, is hoping to unify.
Pennsylvania: 3 add-ons -- Obama lost by 8.5 points, perhaps damaged most by the weeks of Reverend Wright controversy looped on the mainstream media news programs. Clinton also capitalized on a strong party machine run by Governor Ed Rendell and most of the superdelegation in the state. If Obama gains all three add-ons here, it means the state has committed to supporting him and the machinery will likely propel him to victory. The Democratic State Committee nominates from the floor and approves by majority these add-on delegates.
Texas: 3 add-ons -- Obama lost the Hispanic vote heavily, won the caucuses, and might have won the state as a whole were it not for Republican shenanigans via Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos. Helping Obama is the fact that the State Chair (and his superdelegate wife) are both Obama supporters now, and that he won all caucuses in the State. From the rulebook:
12 add-on delegates are at stake this weekend from seven states. Seven of the add-ons come from three states that are emblematic of the challenges Senator Obama inherits from the primary race and now faces in the general election.
How these three states resolve their add-on delegate selections may provide a window into how the party unifies, especially since these three states provide a microcosm of the problems Obama has faced so far in the primary:
Kentucky: 1 add-on -- A 36% blowout for Clinton, albeit uncontested by Obama. Kentucky symbolizes the Appalachia weakness for Obama, and is a state that along with West Virginia may be hardest for Obama to gain traction. A pick-up of an add-on delegate here shows that the Kentucky state party, at least, is hoping to unify.
Pennsylvania: 3 add-ons -- Obama lost by 8.5 points, perhaps damaged most by the weeks of Reverend Wright controversy looped on the mainstream media news programs. Clinton also capitalized on a strong party machine run by Governor Ed Rendell and most of the superdelegation in the state. If Obama gains all three add-ons here, it means the state has committed to supporting him and the machinery will likely propel him to victory. The Democratic State Committee nominates from the floor and approves by majority these add-on delegates.
Texas: 3 add-ons -- Obama lost the Hispanic vote heavily, won the caucuses, and might have won the state as a whole were it not for Republican shenanigans via Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos. Helping Obama is the fact that the State Chair (and his superdelegate wife) are both Obama supporters now, and that he won all caucuses in the State. From the rulebook:
Nominations for Unpledged Add-on Delegates shall be presented to the convention
by the Committee to Nominate At-Large Delegates of the State Convention
(composed of 34 members, one member to be elected by each Senatorial District
Caucus and three members to be appointed by the Permanent Convention Chair...
Obama should win the add-on delegates from Minnesota (2), Vermont, Mississippi, and Montana with ease. How the other three states go will be more important from a political standpoint than a delegate standpoint.
Superdelegate Endorsements/Switches for Obama Flowing
At this point, these are more cosmetic in displaying party unity than anything else. It's also a sign that Senator Clinton believes her campaign truly is over--she can't completely release her pledged delegates, but she can release her superdelegates to Obama for unification purposes.
Thanks to Demconwatch for this list--it's easier than tabulating it myself.
Updated Net Gains: Obama +41.5, Clinton -32.
Total net switch of 73.5 delegates.
Here are the new commitments from previously undeclared superdelegates:
Rep. Nikki Tsongas (MA)
DNC Richard Ray (GA)
DNC Dick Cranwell (VA)
Rep. Jim Matheson (UT) -- the last undeclared from Utah.
Sen. Jim Webb (VA) -- a huge pickup and clears the way for VP talks
DNC Robert Rankin (CA)
Add-on Delegate Jim Hoffa (MI)#
Rep. Zach Space (OH)
DNC Chris Redfern (OH)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH)
And here are the switches from Clinton to Obama:
Former House Speaker Tom Foley (WA)
Rep. Jay Inslee (WA)
Gov. Ted Strickland (OH) --already noted in other post.
DNC Billi Gosh (VT)
Rep. Diana DeGette (CO)
Rep. Alcee L. Hastings (FL)*
Rep. Corrine Brown (FL)*
Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (FL)*
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL)* -- A huge pickup for Obama in regards to party unity and Jewish voters. She was a fierce Clinton supporter up until now.
DNC Helan Langan (UT) -- Lukewarm switch at best, she now completes the sweep of the Utah super-delegation for Obama.
Rep. Betty Sutton (OH)
Rep. Norm Dicks (WA)
All 23 members of the NY Congressional Delegation, all switches from Clinton:
Anthony Weiner
Brian Higgins
Carolyn Maloney
Carolyn McCarthy
Charles Rangel
Edolphus Towns
Eliot Engel
Gary Ackerman
Gregory Meeks
Jerrold Nadler
John Hall
Jose Serrano
Joseph Crowley
Kirsten Gillibrand
Louise Slaughter
Maurice Hinchey
Michael Arcuri
Michael McNulty
Nita Lowey
Nydia Velazquez
Steve Israel
Timothy Bishop
Yvette D. Clarke
Thanks to Demconwatch for this list--it's easier than tabulating it myself.
Updated Net Gains: Obama +41.5, Clinton -32.
Total net switch of 73.5 delegates.
Here are the new commitments from previously undeclared superdelegates:
Rep. Nikki Tsongas (MA)
DNC Richard Ray (GA)
DNC Dick Cranwell (VA)
Rep. Jim Matheson (UT) -- the last undeclared from Utah.
Sen. Jim Webb (VA) -- a huge pickup and clears the way for VP talks
DNC Robert Rankin (CA)
Add-on Delegate Jim Hoffa (MI)#
Rep. Zach Space (OH)
DNC Chris Redfern (OH)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH)
And here are the switches from Clinton to Obama:
Former House Speaker Tom Foley (WA)
Rep. Jay Inslee (WA)
Gov. Ted Strickland (OH) --already noted in other post.
DNC Billi Gosh (VT)
Rep. Diana DeGette (CO)
Rep. Alcee L. Hastings (FL)*
Rep. Corrine Brown (FL)*
Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (FL)*
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL)* -- A huge pickup for Obama in regards to party unity and Jewish voters. She was a fierce Clinton supporter up until now.
DNC Helan Langan (UT) -- Lukewarm switch at best, she now completes the sweep of the Utah super-delegation for Obama.
Rep. Betty Sutton (OH)
Rep. Norm Dicks (WA)
All 23 members of the NY Congressional Delegation, all switches from Clinton:
Anthony Weiner
Brian Higgins
Carolyn Maloney
Carolyn McCarthy
Charles Rangel
Edolphus Towns
Eliot Engel
Gary Ackerman
Gregory Meeks
Jerrold Nadler
John Hall
Jose Serrano
Joseph Crowley
Kirsten Gillibrand
Louise Slaughter
Maurice Hinchey
Michael Arcuri
Michael McNulty
Nita Lowey
Nydia Velazquez
Steve Israel
Timothy Bishop
Yvette D. Clarke
Thursday, June 5, 2008
The State Super-Delegations Most Aligned with One Candidate
Obviously some switching has gone on here and there, mainly from the Clinton camp to the Obama camp, in the ranks of the superdelegates. And obviously several scores of superdelegates need to make up their minds, and 33 add-on delegates still need to be named...but at this moment, let's take a look at the state delegations of superdelegates (I call them 'superdelegations') that are most unified in their support for one candidate or the other.
The following superdelegations went for one candidate by a 60% share or better (as of today).
CLINTON:
New York:
Clinton 94%
46 for Clinton
2 for Obama
1 undeclared
Arkansas:
Clinton 92%
11 for Clinton
0 for Obama
1 undeclared
Rhode Island:
Clinton 73%
8 for Clinton
2 for Obama
1 undeclared
American Samoa:
Clinton 67%
4 for Clinton
2 for Obama
0 undeclared
Pennsylvania:
Clinton 62%
16 for Clinton
9 for Obama
1 undeclared
New Jersey:
Clinton 60%
12 for Clinton
7 for Obama
1 undeclared
OBAMA:
Montana:
Obama 100%
8 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared
North Dakota:
Obama 100%
8 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Nebraska:
Obama 100%
6 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Idaho:
Obama 100%
4 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Illinois:
Obama 94%
29 for Obama
2 undeclared
Minnesota:
Obama 86%
12 for Obama
1 for Clinton
11 undeclared
Connecticut:
Obama 83%
10 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Wyoming:
Obama 83%
5 for Obama
1 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Wisconsin:
Obama 81%
13 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Alaska:
Obama 80%
4 for Obama
1 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Hawaii:
Obama 78%
7 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Kansas:
Obama 78%
7 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Oregon:
Obama 75%
9 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Maine:
Obama 75%
6 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared
South Dakota:
Obama 71%
5 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Mississippi:
Obama 71%
5 for Obama
0 for Clinton
2 undeclared
Vermont:
Obama 71%
5 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Oklahoma:
Obama 70%
7 for Obama
1 for Clinton
2 undeclared
Georgia:
Obama 67%
1o for Obama
3 for Clinton
2 undeclared
South Carolina:
Obama 67%
6 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared
North Carolina:
Obama 65%
11 for Obama
3 for Clinton
3 undeclared
Iowa:
Obama 64%
7 for Obama
3 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Democrats Abroad:
Obama 62.5%
2.5 for Obama
1.5 for Clinton
Colorado:
Obama 60%
9 for Obama
4 for Clinton
2 undeclared
Guam:
Obama 60%
3 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared
The following superdelegations went for one candidate by a 60% share or better (as of today).
CLINTON:
New York:
Clinton 94%
46 for Clinton
2 for Obama
1 undeclared
Arkansas:
Clinton 92%
11 for Clinton
0 for Obama
1 undeclared
Rhode Island:
Clinton 73%
8 for Clinton
2 for Obama
1 undeclared
American Samoa:
Clinton 67%
4 for Clinton
2 for Obama
0 undeclared
Pennsylvania:
Clinton 62%
16 for Clinton
9 for Obama
1 undeclared
New Jersey:
Clinton 60%
12 for Clinton
7 for Obama
1 undeclared
OBAMA:
Montana:
Obama 100%
8 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared
North Dakota:
Obama 100%
8 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Nebraska:
Obama 100%
6 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Idaho:
Obama 100%
4 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Illinois:
Obama 94%
29 for Obama
2 undeclared
Minnesota:
Obama 86%
12 for Obama
1 for Clinton
11 undeclared
Connecticut:
Obama 83%
10 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Wyoming:
Obama 83%
5 for Obama
1 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Wisconsin:
Obama 81%
13 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Alaska:
Obama 80%
4 for Obama
1 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Hawaii:
Obama 78%
7 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Kansas:
Obama 78%
7 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Oregon:
Obama 75%
9 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Maine:
Obama 75%
6 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared
South Dakota:
Obama 71%
5 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Mississippi:
Obama 71%
5 for Obama
0 for Clinton
2 undeclared
Vermont:
Obama 71%
5 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Oklahoma:
Obama 70%
7 for Obama
1 for Clinton
2 undeclared
Georgia:
Obama 67%
1o for Obama
3 for Clinton
2 undeclared
South Carolina:
Obama 67%
6 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared
North Carolina:
Obama 65%
11 for Obama
3 for Clinton
3 undeclared
Iowa:
Obama 64%
7 for Obama
3 for Clinton
1 undeclared
Democrats Abroad:
Obama 62.5%
2.5 for Obama
1.5 for Clinton
Colorado:
Obama 60%
9 for Obama
4 for Clinton
2 undeclared
Guam:
Obama 60%
3 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared
Ohio Governor Strickland Endorses Obama
In a sharp turnaround from being the lead supporter for Senator Clinton in Ohio, Governor Ted Strickland has formally come around to endorse Senator Obama as the Democratic Nominee.
Here is his press release:
##
Subject: STATEMENT: Governor Strickland Endorses Barack Obama
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 5, 2008
Governor Ted Strickland issued the following statement this afternoon:
"Today, I announce my wholehearted and enthusiastic support for Barack Obama for President of the United States.
Earlier today I talked with Sen. Hillary Clinton. I thanked her for her friendship and the strong effort she put forth in this historic campaign. I pledged to work with her to unify the party and to make sure that Barack Obama wins the presidency.
Ohioans have suffered as a result of the failed policies of the Bush Administration, including job loss as a result of rising fuel prices. Ohioans desperately want real, meaningful change. And I believe Barack Obama will bring that change."
###
Could this be the sign that Strickland wishes to get back in the good graces of the Obama campaign for VP consideration, after this famous scene from the campaign?
Here is his press release:
##
Subject: STATEMENT: Governor Strickland Endorses Barack Obama
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 5, 2008
Governor Ted Strickland issued the following statement this afternoon:
"Today, I announce my wholehearted and enthusiastic support for Barack Obama for President of the United States.
Earlier today I talked with Sen. Hillary Clinton. I thanked her for her friendship and the strong effort she put forth in this historic campaign. I pledged to work with her to unify the party and to make sure that Barack Obama wins the presidency.
Ohioans have suffered as a result of the failed policies of the Bush Administration, including job loss as a result of rising fuel prices. Ohioans desperately want real, meaningful change. And I believe Barack Obama will bring that change."
###
Could this be the sign that Strickland wishes to get back in the good graces of the Obama campaign for VP consideration, after this famous scene from the campaign?
Jon Stewart Mocking Hillary "Inevitability" Pundits, McCain Speech
There's nothing better than Jon Stewart at his finest.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
The Day After: Tons of New Superdelegate Endorsements
Several endorsements promised for United States Senator and Democratic Presumptive Nominee for President of the United States Barack Obama have come to fruition today.
You may recall Governor Bredesen as the originator of the proposed "superdelegate conference" in the beginning of May, should the superdelegates not push a candidate over the threshold to become the nominee.
Bredesen was joined in Nashville by Gray Sasser and Inez Crutchfield, two fellow Tennessee superdelegates from the state party in his announcement.
Tennessee has three more uncommitted superdelegates: Lincoln Davis, Bart Gordon, and some guy name Al Gore.
Two of the US Senators leading the way in the push for all uncommitted Senators to get behind Obama were Ken Salazar of Colorado and Tom Harkin of Iowa (note: Obama won both swing states handily). Although the package deal of Senators has yet to materialize, both Salazar and Harkin decided today to make their support for Senator Obama public.
Another Senator, Tom Cardin of Maryland, also endorsed Obama today. In an interesting note, Cardin implied that two fellow Maryland superdelegates in the Clinton column--Barbara Mikulski (Senator) and Martin O'Malley (Governor)--would also work to support Obama as well. In the article, Cardin also showed that he was an implicit member of the "Pelosi Club":
Joining Senator Ken Salazar in his endorsement of Obama were two fellow Colorado superdelegates and Congressmen, John Salazar and Mark Udall.
Mark Udall's cousin Tom Udall--this one the last of the New Mexico superdelegates, Congressman (and Senate Candidate)--has also officially announced for Obama. Tom Udall had credited his neutrality during the primary season to the fact that Clinton won the state while Obama won his district.
Congressman Chris Van Hollen, Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has also stepped forward to endorse Senator Obama. Van Hollen earlier seemed to have tipped his hand by commenting in February about his belief that "every superdelegate has to really take into consideration the judgment of the American people and the elected delegates, meaning those who are pledged, as we reach a decision."
Despite this seeming support for the Pelosi Club rationale, Van Hollen refused to endorse at that time.
From the Garden State, New Jersey, comes two new superdelegate endorsements as well. Senator Frank Lautenberg and Congressman Rush Holt have both agreed to support Senator Obama.
Another Distinguished Party Leader is backing Obama, and this time it's Walter Mondale, the former Vice President from Minnesota, who has switched from Clinton to Obama.
In somewhat surprising news, a trio of Pennsylvania Congressmen--Mike Doyle, Jason Altmire and Bob Brady--have announced that they would also endorse Senator Obama. Careful not to expose themselves politically in a state that went handily for Senator Clinton, each of these congressmen waited until the nomination became a formality before endorsing. In fact, Altmire went so far as to say that this was not an endorsement as much as getting behind the Democratic nominee for the Party.
In a defection from the Clinton campaign, Utah superdelegate Karen Hale announced her switch to supporting Senator Obama. Of interest in another article is that two other members of the Utah "superdelegation" are still undecided about their final plans--Congressman Jim Matheson wants to wait and see what Obama and Clinton decide on the end of the race, and Clinton supporter Helen Langan may end up switching to Obama in the end.
Both Langan and Hale had both given a signal that their support of Clinton might switch at some time in the future to Obama depending on how the race unfolded.
A previously uncommitted add-on delegate from Arizona, Terry Goddard, has finally announced his support for Obama as well, months after Clinton won the state and weeks after Goddard was selected as the add-on delegate. Goddard was the last Arizona superdelegate to make a decision public.
FOR SENATOR OBAMA: +28 (-3 for Clinton)
Tennessee Governor Mark Bredesen had promised yesterday to endorse Senator Obama today, along with two other Tennessee superdelegates, and hold a "unity event" on behalf of the party.
You may recall Governor Bredesen as the originator of the proposed "superdelegate conference" in the beginning of May, should the superdelegates not push a candidate over the threshold to become the nominee.
Bredesen was joined in Nashville by Gray Sasser and Inez Crutchfield, two fellow Tennessee superdelegates from the state party in his announcement.
Tennessee has three more uncommitted superdelegates: Lincoln Davis, Bart Gordon, and some guy name Al Gore.
Two of the US Senators leading the way in the push for all uncommitted Senators to get behind Obama were Ken Salazar of Colorado and Tom Harkin of Iowa (note: Obama won both swing states handily). Although the package deal of Senators has yet to materialize, both Salazar and Harkin decided today to make their support for Senator Obama public.
Another Senator, Tom Cardin of Maryland, also endorsed Obama today. In an interesting note, Cardin implied that two fellow Maryland superdelegates in the Clinton column--Barbara Mikulski (Senator) and Martin O'Malley (Governor)--would also work to support Obama as well. In the article, Cardin also showed that he was an implicit member of the "Pelosi Club":
Cardin, a superdelegate, had been waiting for the completion of the final primary to declare his support. He said he believed the job of superdelegates was to not to decide the outcome of the race but rather to monitor and ratify the primary process.
"I have not announced my endorsement before this time because I believe strongly in the electoral process and in giving Democrats from across this nation the right to determine who should be our Party's presidential nominee."
Joining Senator Ken Salazar in his endorsement of Obama were two fellow Colorado superdelegates and Congressmen, John Salazar and Mark Udall.
Mark Udall's cousin Tom Udall--this one the last of the New Mexico superdelegates, Congressman (and Senate Candidate)--has also officially announced for Obama. Tom Udall had credited his neutrality during the primary season to the fact that Clinton won the state while Obama won his district.
Congressman Chris Van Hollen, Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has also stepped forward to endorse Senator Obama. Van Hollen earlier seemed to have tipped his hand by commenting in February about his belief that "every superdelegate has to really take into consideration the judgment of the American people and the elected delegates, meaning those who are pledged, as we reach a decision."
Despite this seeming support for the Pelosi Club rationale, Van Hollen refused to endorse at that time.
"I made it clear early on that I wasn't going to take any position in the
presidential primary," said Van Hollen. "Because we work -- we the DCCC -- very
closely with both presidential campaigns, both the Hillary Clinton campaign and
the Barack Obama campaign. And of course, we look forward to working with the
eventual nominee to make sure that that new president has a strong Democratic
majority in the House to work with. Because of that I have not yet taken a
position."
From the Garden State, New Jersey, comes two new superdelegate endorsements as well. Senator Frank Lautenberg and Congressman Rush Holt have both agreed to support Senator Obama.
Another Distinguished Party Leader is backing Obama, and this time it's Walter Mondale, the former Vice President from Minnesota, who has switched from Clinton to Obama.
In somewhat surprising news, a trio of Pennsylvania Congressmen--Mike Doyle, Jason Altmire and Bob Brady--have announced that they would also endorse Senator Obama. Careful not to expose themselves politically in a state that went handily for Senator Clinton, each of these congressmen waited until the nomination became a formality before endorsing. In fact, Altmire went so far as to say that this was not an endorsement as much as getting behind the Democratic nominee for the Party.
In a defection from the Clinton campaign, Utah superdelegate Karen Hale announced her switch to supporting Senator Obama. Of interest in another article is that two other members of the Utah "superdelegation" are still undecided about their final plans--Congressman Jim Matheson wants to wait and see what Obama and Clinton decide on the end of the race, and Clinton supporter Helen Langan may end up switching to Obama in the end.
Both Langan and Hale had both given a signal that their support of Clinton might switch at some time in the future to Obama depending on how the race unfolded.
A previously uncommitted add-on delegate from Arizona, Terry Goddard, has finally announced his support for Obama as well, months after Clinton won the state and weeks after Goddard was selected as the add-on delegate. Goddard was the last Arizona superdelegate to make a decision public.
Four more US Senators made their decisions for Obama known today as well.
The other US Senators were California Senator Barbara Boxer, Delaware Senator Tom Carper, Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu, and Oregon Senator Tom Wyden, who all appeared with Cardin, Harkin, Salazar and Lautenberg to make their announcement as a gesture of unity behind Senator Obama's candidacy.
Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold also made his announcement for Obama today, after months of speculation driven by his leaking of his vote for Obama in the Wisconsin primary.
Maine Congressman Michael Michaud also endorsed Obama today, after originally endorsing John Edwards months ago and then becoming neutral after Edwards dropped out of the race.
Rounding out the list of endorsements for Senator Obama today are the following superdelegates:
David Strauss (North Dakota)
Paula Zellner (Wisconsin). Zellner is a campaign field director for Senator Russ Feingold.
Ed Cote (Washington) and Sharon Mast (Washington)
FOR SENATOR CLINTON: +2 (-1 for Obama)
In a surprising move, another Senator, South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson, decided to switch from OBAMA to CLINTON! This move was precipitated by Senator Clinton's win in his home state last night, which Senator Johnson had said would drive his vote.
This, despite the fact that Johnson admitted that he voted for Obama in the primary and endorsed Obama in January. Sounds from the interview that Johnson got himself into a bind thinking Obama was going to win the state and then being forced to welch on that promise after Clinton won the state. Johnson is committed to Clinton as long as she is in the race--which means when Clinton drops out he'll go back to supporting Obama.
Clinton also picked up another superdelegate from South Dakota today--Cheryl Chapman.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
21.5 More Superdelegates Endorse Obama
I'll try to put forth the ones that just came out since Montana polls closed, with help from the Obama campaign.
The Obama campaign is touting another 26.5 superdelegates endorsing Obama tonight. Compared to the previously recorded superdelegate endorsements, this number is actually 21.5 superdelegates, still a huge number. Here they are, by state:
Arizona
Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords said:
Arizona Democratic Party Chair Don Bivens said:
California
DNC Member Christine Pelosi said:
DNC Member Rachel Binah (switch from Clinton, already recorded) said:
DNC Member John Perez (already recorded):
Congressman Jerry McNerney said:
DNC Member Michell Ceasar (already recorded) said:
President of the National Federation of Democratic Women Helen Knetzer (already recorded) said:
Lousiana
DNC Member Patsy Arceneaux said:
Maine
DNC Member Sam Spencer said:
Maryland
Congressman John Sarbanes said:
Missouri Democratic Party Vice Chairwoman Yolanda Wheat said:
Nevada Democratic Party Chair Sam Lieberman said:
Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto said:
Congressman Rush Holt said:
North Carolina
DNC Member Muriel Offerman said:
Oklahoma
Oregon
Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury said:
Pennsylvania
DNC Member Ian Murray said:
The Obama campaign is touting another 26.5 superdelegates endorsing Obama tonight. Compared to the previously recorded superdelegate endorsements, this number is actually 21.5 superdelegates, still a huge number. Here they are, by state:
Arizona
“Now that all primaries and caucuses have concluded, I am enthusiastically endorsing Senator Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. Since the outset of this historic race for the White House, I have been impressed by the intellect and patriotism of both Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama. They have demonstrated the passion and wisdom to move our nation towards a brighter future. I respect and admire both of them.
“Every state has had a chance to vote and Barack Obama has emerged with more support. In becoming a delegate for him, I recognize his inspiring and thoughtful leadership that brought him to the finish line. I am proud to join Governor Janet
Napolitano and millions of voters throughout the country in supporting Barack
Obama as the next President of the United States. I agree with his policy priorities and his commitment to create a cooperative and bipartisan era in American politics. In states large and small, Barack Obama has shared his hope, optimism, and vision of what is possible. Americans from all walks of life see in him someone who can truly change our nation. I do as well.”
Arizona Democratic Party Chair Don Bivens said:
“Now that our historic season of caucuses and primaries is behind us, it is time for each superdelegate to choose between two outstanding candidates. For me, that choice is Senator Barack Obama. He is an extraordinary leader, with the ability to bring people together across party lines to solve problems. That is exactly what our country needs right now, a pragmatic change of direction.
“I congratulate Senator Clinton on her hard-fought campaign. She is a true leader and an inspiration to millions. I am confident she will act to unite our party, and our country, behind our party's chosen candidate for President.”
California
DNC Member Christine Pelosi said:
“Barack Obama has captured the majority of the popular delegates from caucuses
and primaries from sea to shining sea. Barack Obama has the vision, ideas and values needed to bring positive change to our lives, from economic justice to energy independence to an end to the Iraq war and care for our veterans. As an activist dedicated to participatory democracy, I am thrilled that tens of millions of voters and tens of thousands of volunteers have participated in this Democratic nomination and breathed new life intro our democracy. I have great respect for our other presidential candidates, particularly Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has proved herself to be a champion for working families.”
DNC Member Rachel Binah (switch from Clinton, already recorded) said:
“The people have spoken and I look forward to working with all my energy and
enthusiasm for a man who I believe will make an extraodrinarily wonderful
president. His environmental record is unparallelled and he has a sensitivity to
the issues of our time.”
DNC Member John Perez (already recorded):
Congressman Sam Farr (already recorded) said:“Now that the primary season has come to a close, I officially endorse Senator Barack Obama for President. I believe that now is the time for us to come together and unite for victory against John McCain in the fall. Senator Obama has run an extraordinary, forward-looking campaign focused on hope, unity and our shared values as Democrats. I am confident that he will bring our party and all Americans together as our nominee and as President."
“Tonight, after the polls close, the presidential primary for the Democratic candidates will have run its course. Although Hillary Clinton has won many of the big blue states and energized her voters, Barack Obama has won the nomination. After the final ballot has been cast tonight, I will officially endorse Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate for the presidency.
“Barack is an exciting new leader in American politics. He will work to end the war in Iraq, he will tackle domestic issues that have been neglected for years and he will help repair our battered reputation abroad. I look forward to working with him to bridge the current political divide and address the problems that face our country.”
Congressman Bob Filner (already recorded) said:
“I take great pride in announcing my support for Senator Barack Obama as the
next President of the United States. As Chairman of the House Veterans Affairs Committee, I look forward to fighting alongside Senator Obama to correct eight years of neglect of our nation's heroes--working for real gains for America's veterans!”
Congressman Jerry McNerney said:
“Senator Obama represents hope for the future. He has inspired legions of young people who will energize our nation and help bring about the kind of change necessary to turn the incredible threats we face into opportunities.
“Given my background in wind energy, I am excited that Senator Obama has an appreciation for how to create clean, sustainable, family wage jobs in renewable energy. He also knows how important it is to use America's greatest asset, innovation, to put America ahead of the rising energy costs with new energy technology including both efficiency and new sources of energy.”
Colorado
Governor Bill Ritter said:
“I'm proud to pledge my support to Sen. Barack Obama to become the next President of the United States of America,” Gov. Ritter said. “Sen. Obama offers a strong sense of hope and promise for our country's future. His success at inspiring people from all walks of life, his commitment to the need for education and health-care reform, and his sense of independence and purpose make him appealing to Coloradans and other Westerners. He understands the promise of a New Energy Economy, of opportunity for all, of building a strong economy for our children. He is the best person to help Americans and Coloradans achieve their God-given potential, and I am proud to endorse him.”
Florida
DNC Member Michell Ceasar (already recorded) said:
“Senator Obama is the clear delegate leader and I believe it is now time to focus on the general election and to prevent John McCain from providing a third Bush term.”
Congressman Ron Klein said:
“I will be casting my ballot at the Democratic National Convention for Senator
Barack Obama. Senator Obama is the kind of leader that comes along only once in
a generation. He has the unique ability to move our country forward, past the petty partisan politics that so many of us have grown so weary of, and his vision is a breath of fresh air. I believe he will serve our nation ably and well, and am proud to support his candidacy. With my vote at the convention comes a commitment to reach out to voters in South Florida throughout the general election season.
“The primary is now behind us, but we still have a critical task ahead. All of us, supporters of Senator Obama and Senator Clinton alike, must come together and stand united as a force for change in this nation. Americans will have a stark choice this November: a choice between a continuation of the failed policies of the current administration, or a fresh start. We must stand together, with one voice, and call for a fresh start on Iraq, on health care, on education, and on developing clean, affordable
renewable energy. These issues are too important to focus on what divides us. We must now focus on what unites us as Democrats, and on the general election this fall.”
Georgia
Georgia State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond said:
“This campaign has been one of the closest most hard fought contests in the history of our nation. Senator Obama and Senator Clinton have demonstrated their commitment to the changes that are badly needed in this country and their ability to lead America forward. Now that the primary and caucus season has concluded, the time has come for us to unify the party and throw our complete support behind Senator Barack Obama in order to win the November election. I am impressed by his vision, intellect, and his unique ability to attract new voters to the Democratic column.”
Kansas
President of the National Federation of Democratic Women Helen Knetzer (already recorded) said:
“The American people have endured enough in the past seven and a half years from
this Republican Administration and the United States is in desperate need of a leader who realizes our economic and international challenges. This has been a long and hard-fought primary and both Senators Clinton and Obama have shown the ability to lead us in this country, but today we must put our differences aside in a united effort to ensure that we win in November. I’m pleased to endorse Barack Obama.”
Lousiana
DNC Member Patsy Arceneaux said:
“I believe that it is time to put aside divisive politics and to unite as Democrats looking forward to a victory in November and the hope of real change in America.”
Maine
DNC Member Sam Spencer said:
“My decision, in part, is based on the fact that Senator Obama has won a majority of pledged delegates (which I believe is the most important measurement) and has attained a majority of all delegates. Senator Obama was the majority winner of Maine’s caucuses. Senator Obama is the Democratic winner of the nomination. Senator Obama is an extraordinary candidate and has inspired Democrats in Maine and across the country to show their support in record numbers. Now we must work to sustain this momentum into the national election to take back the White House.”
Maryland
“I am excited to join in expressing my strong support for Barack Obama, who I
believe will be an outstanding president. Now that the votes have been cast and the primary season has come to its close, I am pleased to play a part in ratifying the decision of the voters in my district and across the country. Moving forward, the importance of unifying the party behind one candidate is vital and Democrats in the Third District, the State of Maryland, and the nation are quickly turning their focus to electing Senator Obama as our next President.”
Michigan
Congressman Bart Stupak said:
“This has been an historic presidential primary election with phenomenal interest in our Democratic candidates. With the conclusion of today’s South Dakota and Montana primaries, all Americans have had an opportunity to make their voices heard at the ballot box. Now that the nation’s last primary ballot has been cast and an agreement has been reached to seat Michigan’s delegates at the Democratic National Convention, I am proud to pledge my support to Senator Barack Obama’s candidacy for President of the United States.
I am confident that Senator Obama will provide the leadership necessary to improve our economy, protect our Great Lakes, provide health care for all Americans, and put an end to the war in Iraq. I have invited the Senator to campaign with me in northern Michigan and share his vision for change with the people of the First Congressional District.One issue has been resoundingly clear throughout this primary process: Americans do not want four more years of the same failed policies that have driven our country deeper into debt and tarnished our reputation in the world. Senator Obama will provide the change we need to get our country back on track to prosperity and prominence.”
Missouri
Missouri Democratic Party Vice Chairwoman Yolanda Wheat said:
“This primary season has been truly historic. The Democratic Party has produced two extraordinary candidates, either of whom would make a great president. I strongly believe that now is the time for us as Democrats to unite behind our nominee, Senator Barack Obama. In November we have a chance to make this a better country for our children and our children's children. My respect and admiration for both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama has grown throughout this election process. I am endorsing Senator Barack Obama for President today because I believe that his leadership will bring about the profound change that this great country so rightly deserves. I hope all Democrats, regardless of whom they have supported until this time, will unite behind Senator Obama's vision of hope and
opportunity for all Americans.”
Nevada
Nevada Democratic Party Chair Sam Lieberman said:
“I am proud to endorse Senator Barack Obama for president of the United States.
Sen. Obama knows the challenges we face in the West and will work to stop the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump, create a better water plan and spur the development of renewable energy throughout the West. Together, we will engage multiple generations of Democrats to reform our health care system, end the war in Iraq and put our country’s economy back on track, especially for working families and seniors who need relief. Senator Obama recognizes that our diversity is our strength, and that is key in a rapidly changing state such as Nevada. Sen. Obama will be the catalyst who helps Democrats Win in the West and throughout Nevada.”
Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto said:
“It is now time for the Democratic Party to unite behind one candidate. Through a unified Party we will defeat John McCain in November. I look forward to working with Senator Obama to create positive change for the citizens of Nevada and the United States.”
New Jersey
Congressman Rush Holt said:
“Barack Obama has a remarkable life story, has run a stirring campaign, and has
offered an inspiring vision and an impressive strategy to bring about much-needed change in our nation. His successes in the primaries suggest that we can rise above cynicism and bigotry in America, and I am honored to offer my endorsement and support. Like millions in New Jersey and across the country, I have great hopes for an Obama Administration that will restore people’s faith in their government and strengthen America’s reputation for constructive actions abroad. I look forward to working in Congress with a President who will end our combat involvement in Iraq, invest in education, and enhance the role of science in his Administration and in society at large.”
North Carolina
DNC Member Muriel Offerman said:
“Barack Obama has spoken to America in a way that has drawn so many new voters
who are excited about the real change he will bring to Washington. Now that the
primaries are over, it's time for Democrats to unite in taking on John McCain.”
DNC Member David Parker said:
“Senator Obama’s plans for strengthening America’s economy reflect his insight
and empathy for all the people of this country. In this era of economic and environmental challenge, we are all simply Americans pulling together to strengthen our country– regardless of region, race, gender, wealth or any other qualification. Senator Obama’s leadership at the head of the Democratic ticket will help Democrats in North Carolina, including Kay Hagan, our Democratic candidate for US Senate. I look forward to his campaigning actively in North Carolina during the fall campaign.”
Oklahoma
DNC Member Jay Parmley said:
“The race for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination has been historic. We have had two superbly qualified candidates, unprecedented numbers of newly registered voters and across the board near-record to record turnouts in primaries and caucuses. As an automatic delegate to the 2008 Democratic National Convention, it was always my hope that Democratic voters across America whose votes determine the proportional make up of the pledged delegates to the DNC Convention would select the nominee of our Party. I believe they have done so, even if by the narrowest of margins.
“I will cast my vote at the DNC Convention for Senator Barack Obama. Senator Obama has brought thousands of new people into the political process and his campaign and election will restore people’s confidence in their government.
“Our task as a party is great. Our country is in crisis. Voters have a clear choice in November. Will we end the war in Iraq, fix our ailing economy, and provide much needed quality healthcare to all our citizens? These questions can only be answered affirmatively by electing a Democratic President. The fight for the Democratic nomination has been intense and now comes to a close. Our goal as Democrats is
victory in November and that can only be accomplished if we come together in
support of Senator Obama.”
Oregon
Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury said:
“Senator Obama has the vision and commitment to bring people together. This country needs a lot of repair and Barack Obama will be well-suited to accomplish
that.”
Oregon Democratic Party Vice Chairman Frank Dixon said:
“I am announcing my decision as one of Oregon’s twelve automatic delegates to the Democratic National Convention to support U.S. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois for President of the United Sates.
“I have waited until the end of this race to announce my decision out of respect for Senator Hillary Clinton, her campaign staff and passionate supporters who have made this closely contested primary an historic contest. No primary has drawn this kind of interest and participation from so many voters in so many states.
“In my view both candidates are capable of winning the election and becoming a great President. I can find no compelling reason not to represent the voters of Oregon who overwhelmingly chose Senator Obama. I do find many reasons to help bring this primary contest to a conclusion so that the Democratic Party may now focus on unity and the hard work necessary to elect our federal and state candidates.”
Pennsylvania
DNC Member Ian Murray said:
“I am now, after much thought and consideration, supporting Barack Obama for the
presidency of the United States and will be voting for him at the convention in Denver. I have been a strong supporter of Hillary and Bill Clinton since 1991, having chaired and run Bill Clinton’s 1992 and 1996 campaigns in Erie County. I have continued until this time to endorse with all my heart the candidacy of Hillary Clinton. She has been a true champion of the Democratic ideals that are so important to voters of Northwestern Pennsylvania. It is clear to me though that Barack Obama has the required votes for nomination at the convention in Denver. Barack Obama’s message of change and his positions on health care, the Iraq war, the environment, the economy, and other issues vital to the Democratic Party have resonated with record numbers of voters including young voters, independents, and like-minded Republicans. I have been involved in running campaigns in Northwestern Pennsylvania since 1972, this epic contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has fortified in me the vitality of the Democratic Party and its hopes and vision for our future. I pledge all my support, my heart, and my passion for Barack Obama and will be working night and day in the coming days and weeks to bring the Obama and Clinton camps together and unify in Northwestern Pennsylvania as we begin our quest for that which all our futures and health depend, the election of Barack Obama.”
Virginia
Executive Director of the Virginia AFL-CIO Jim Leaman said:“After a historical battle through every primary and caucus Senator Obama leads in elected pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. As a previous uncommitted delegate to the Democratic National Convention, I would like to pledge my support to Senator Barack Obama to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. I believe that Senator Obama is the right person, in the right place and at the right time to change politics in Washington from strict partisan warfare to one of jointly solving America’s problems. For me, Senator Barack Obama represents a new generation of leadership that will have to solve our problems in health care, social security, education, the environment, jobs, national security and the economy in the upcoming decade. The time has come to unite as democrats and turn our focus and attention to winning back the White House in November.”
Obama Wins Montana
The last primary of the Democratic Nomination process goes to Senator Barack Obama, by double digits.
More Endorsements for Obama as South Dakota Closes
Nine (9) superdelegates announced their endorsement or new endorsement as the South Dakota polls closed.
With this haul, Obama gains 7.5 superdelegates and Clinton loses a net 1.0, for a net gain of 8.5 superdelegates.
According to First Read:
Ed Smith (IL) -- Only Rep. Rahm Emanuel and an unfilled DNC seat remain in Illinois as supers
Frank Dixon (OR) -- DNC Super
Helen Knetzer (KS) -- DNC Super
Rep. Sam Farr (CA)
Mitch Ceasar (FL) -- DNC Super, half-vote
Rachel Binah (CA) -- DNC Super who switched from Clinton to Obama
Karen Hale (UT) -- DNC Super who switched from Clinton to Obama
Rep. Bob Filner (CA) -- Closes the gap in California to a 30-30 split of supers between Clinton and Obama, with 11 remaining.
And according to Ben Smith:
Wyoming superdelegate Cynthia Nunley endorses Senator Clinton
With this haul, Obama gains 7.5 superdelegates and Clinton loses a net 1.0, for a net gain of 8.5 superdelegates.
According to First Read:
Ed Smith (IL) -- Only Rep. Rahm Emanuel and an unfilled DNC seat remain in Illinois as supers
Frank Dixon (OR) -- DNC Super
Helen Knetzer (KS) -- DNC Super
Rep. Sam Farr (CA)
Mitch Ceasar (FL) -- DNC Super, half-vote
Rachel Binah (CA) -- DNC Super who switched from Clinton to Obama
Karen Hale (UT) -- DNC Super who switched from Clinton to Obama
Rep. Bob Filner (CA) -- Closes the gap in California to a 30-30 split of supers between Clinton and Obama, with 11 remaining.
And according to Ben Smith:
Wyoming superdelegate Cynthia Nunley endorses Senator Clinton
South Dakota Makes Obama the Presumptive Nominee
Illinois Senator Barack Obama has gained enough pledged delegates in South Dakota to be named the presumptive Democratic nominee for President of the United States.
The South Dakota early returns are in and given the number of pledged delegates that Obama is guaranteed from South Dakota, he has surpassed the 2118 threshold needed to secure the Democratic nomination.
In a state that immortalizes George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Linoln and Theodore Roosevelt on Mount Rushmore, Senator Obama has become the first African-American presidential candidate of a major political party.
Congratulations to Senator Obama, his family and supporters, and the Democratic Party for this historical and powerful nomination.
Respects should also be given to Senator Clinton, her family and supporters for the long, arduous, spirited and tenacious battle for the nomination.
The South Dakota early returns are in and given the number of pledged delegates that Obama is guaranteed from South Dakota, he has surpassed the 2118 threshold needed to secure the Democratic nomination.
In a state that immortalizes George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Linoln and Theodore Roosevelt on Mount Rushmore, Senator Obama has become the first African-American presidential candidate of a major political party.
Congratulations to Senator Obama, his family and supporters, and the Democratic Party for this historical and powerful nomination.
Respects should also be given to Senator Clinton, her family and supporters for the long, arduous, spirited and tenacious battle for the nomination.
CLINTON MATHEMATICALLY ELIMINATED
Senator Clinton will gain no more than 17 delegates from tonight's contests in Montana and South Dakota, even if she exceeds expectations.
These 17 pledged delegates added to her total of 1918 will give her 1925 total delegates.
With only 140 unpledged superdelegates remaining, 35 add-on delegates and 1.5 Edwards delegates, there are only 176.5 available delegates for Senator Clinton to gain in some magical 100% sweep of all these delegates.
That gain would still leave her at 2101.5, short 16.5 delegates of the 2118 threshold.
Even if Clinton were to receive the other 14 pledged delegates in the South Dakota/Montana contests, which would require beating Obama with 86% of more of the vote in every district, she would still fall 2.5 delegates short.
That, my friends, is the definition of mathematically eliminated.
These 17 pledged delegates added to her total of 1918 will give her 1925 total delegates.
With only 140 unpledged superdelegates remaining, 35 add-on delegates and 1.5 Edwards delegates, there are only 176.5 available delegates for Senator Clinton to gain in some magical 100% sweep of all these delegates.
That gain would still leave her at 2101.5, short 16.5 delegates of the 2118 threshold.
Even if Clinton were to receive the other 14 pledged delegates in the South Dakota/Montana contests, which would require beating Obama with 86% of more of the vote in every district, she would still fall 2.5 delegates short.
That, my friends, is the definition of mathematically eliminated.
Oklahoma Chairman Ivan Holmes for Obama
Another superdelegate comes out for Obama--this one's the Chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic State Party.
We're now officially in the area where coordination of superdelegates to hold off on announcements is important so that the pledged delegates from South Dakota and Montana push Obama over the top.
We're now officially in the area where coordination of superdelegates to hold off on announcements is important so that the pledged delegates from South Dakota and Montana push Obama over the top.
Obama Poised to Pull off "Greatest Political Upset in American History"
Jed Report always has good stuff, and there are two things on the site that I wanted to bring here.
First, this from MSNBC's Chuck Todd. A fascinating perspective on the race as an entirety.
Second, this picture of the Democratic candidates at the beginning of the race. Each filled with hope and optimism. Could you imagine Senator Obama emerging from this pack? Amazing.
First, this from MSNBC's Chuck Todd. A fascinating perspective on the race as an entirety.
Second, this picture of the Democratic candidates at the beginning of the race. Each filled with hope and optimism. Could you imagine Senator Obama emerging from this pack? Amazing.
Obama Will Gain Five Montana Superdelegates after the Polls Close
Montana has a large pack of superdelegates waiting to endorse Senator Obama once the polls close tonight:
- Governor Brian Schweitzer
- Senator Max Baucus
- Senator Jon Tester
- State Party Chair Dennis McDonald
- State Party Vicechair Margaret Campbell
As I wrote earlier, Campbell was known earlier to want to support Obama, but had to back off per Montana State Party rules not allowing an endorsement during a contested election.
Florida Super Glasser for Obama
I must have missed this one earlier. Florida superdelegate Diane Glasser has endorsed Senator Obama and adds 0.5 delegates to his count.
Two More Supers for Obama Later Today
According to Ben Smith's blog, two more superdelegates are announcing for Senator Obama:
- California congressman Sam Farr
- Maryland DNC member Bel Leong-Hong
It sounds like Farr is announcing tonight, while Hong has already announced.
I swear these new announcements went up as I was hitting the "publish" key just now.
Obama is now 12 delegates away from going over the 2118 mark. Expect the superdelegate flood to calm down for now so that Obama can gain the symbolic victory of the South Dakota and Montana elections putting him over the top. I am assuming the Obama campaign can embargo these announcements until tomorrow at this point.
It will be interesting to see which superdelegate announcement was the magic one. I'll go back and look at the announcement times.
Today's Delegate Roundup: Obama + 21, Clinton -2.5
I'm trying to catch up here, so I'll just put the notes on the superdelegates who have declared so far today here, including the two previous ones (Dawson and Ausman) about whom I wrote just earlier. I already counted Rep. Jim Clyburn in yesterday's news after word spread of his decision to endorse Obama today.
As of 3:20 pm PST:
Clinton: - 2.5 (+ 0.5 minus three defections to Obama)
Obama: +21 (20 superdelegate votes + 1 Edwards pledged delegate)
Obama is 14 delegates away from the nomination, which is in the range of expected gains from Montana and South Dakota today.
Clinton Superdelegates: +0.5
Jon Ausman (FL)
-- DNC Superdelegate and member of the Rules & Bylaws Committee who supports Clinton because Obama already is the winner, so he has the luxury of sending out a "message of unity" to implore an Obama-Clinton ticket.
Obama Superdelegates: +21
Ex-President Jimmy Carter (GA)
-- The Distinguished Party Leader finally made his decision known after months of speculation and signs that he would support Obama.
Congressman John Spratt (SC)
-- He joined with Congressman Clyburn in endorsing Senator Obama today.
Ralph Dawson (NY)
--A member of the DNC who is the last member of the New York superdelegate pool to endorse, save for Party Leader George Mitchell.
Debra S. Kozikowski (MA)
--A member of the Massachussetts DNC, she made her decision known today. Her press statement:
Congressman John Olver (MA)
--This Massachussetts member of Congress made his decision today after holding out for a long time as a result of his district's split vote for both candidates. An excerpt from the article:
Joyce Beatty (OH)
--This DNC member from Columbus and Minority Leader of the Ohio state legislature threw her support to Obama today as well, citing her conversation with the Illinois Senator:
Jennifer Dechant (ME)
--Citing the support for Obama from the majority of the Maine state convention delegates, Dechant also announced her decision to support Senator Obama.
Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO)
From her statement today:
Carnelia Pettis-Fondren (MS)
--The Vice Chairwoman for the Mississippi DNC has announced her support for Obama today.
Per the article:
--This member of the California DNC and Los Angeles-based labor leader made his decision to support Obama on his belief that Obama would be "the best positioned to lead this party forward."
Of interest is that Perez' cousin is Los Angeles City Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who was an early and prolific supporter of the Clinton campaign.
Congressman Dennis Moore (KS)
--The Kansas Congressman announced his support for Obama today.
Harriet Windsor
--A Delaware DNC superdelegate
John Daniello
--The Delaware Democratic Party Chairman released the following:
Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
--Chairwoman of the Black Congressional Caucus
Kwame Kilpatrick
--Mayor of Detroit and DNC superdelegate
Debbie Dingel
--DNC Superdelegate
Rick Wiener
--DNC Superdelegate
Joyce Lalonde
--DNC Superdelegate
Tina Abbott
--State DNC Vicechairwoman and Secretary-Treasurer of state AFL-CIO
Sharon Nordgren (NH)
--State Representative Nordgren announced today her switch from Edwards to Obama. Nordgren is a pledged delegate and ups Obama's total from the Granite State.
A full list of the Edwards switches to Obama was released earlier today by the Obama campaign:
FLORIDA -- 10
Joseph Beuttenmuller, Lake Mary
Barry Birdwell, Melbourne Beach
E. Alan Brock, Crawfordville
Deborah Courtney, Jacksonville
Rita Ferrandino, Sarasota
Fred McDowell, Leesburg
Mary Mooney, Crawfordville
Linda Spisak, Hobe Sound
Gregory Shimkaveg, Oviedo
Bill Vincent, Gulf Breeze
IOWA -- 4
Machelle Crum, Newton
Arlene Prather-Kane, Cedar Falls
David Relawsk, Iowa City
Merci Wolff, Sioux City
SOUTH CAROLINA -- 8
Lauren Bilton, Columbia
Daniel Boan, Kershaw
Christine Brennan-Bond, Moore
Michael Evatt, Seneca (birthplace of Senator Edwards)
Robert Groce, Summerville
Marilyn Hemingway, Georgetown
Tim Moore, Barnwell
Susan Smith, Pawley’s Island
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 4
Deborah Bacon-Nelson, Hanover
Senator Peter Burling, Cornish
Rep. Sharon Nordgren, Hanover
Joshua Denton, Portsmouth
This makes a total of 26 pledged delegates worth 21 pledged delegate votes at the Convention (Florida pledged delegates are worth 0.5 votes) that have switched from Edwards to Obama.
These 21 pledged delegates represent a net gain for Obama (via switch) larger than most primaries afforded--more on this to come in a separate post.
Congresswoman Maxine Waters (CA)
--The California Congresswoman was a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton, but made her decision today to switch to Obama.
Kamil Hasan (CA)
--The California DNC superdelegate made the announcement of the switch from Clinton to Obama in the following press release:
--A District of Columbia superdelegate finally makes his switch known today:
As of 3:20 pm PST:
Clinton: - 2.5 (+ 0.5 minus three defections to Obama)
Obama: +21 (20 superdelegate votes + 1 Edwards pledged delegate)
Obama is 14 delegates away from the nomination, which is in the range of expected gains from Montana and South Dakota today.
Clinton Superdelegates: +0.5
Jon Ausman (FL)
-- DNC Superdelegate and member of the Rules & Bylaws Committee who supports Clinton because Obama already is the winner, so he has the luxury of sending out a "message of unity" to implore an Obama-Clinton ticket.
Obama Superdelegates: +21
Ex-President Jimmy Carter (GA)
-- The Distinguished Party Leader finally made his decision known after months of speculation and signs that he would support Obama.
Congressman John Spratt (SC)
-- He joined with Congressman Clyburn in endorsing Senator Obama today.
Ralph Dawson (NY)
--A member of the DNC who is the last member of the New York superdelegate pool to endorse, save for Party Leader George Mitchell.
Debra S. Kozikowski (MA)
--A member of the Massachussetts DNC, she made her decision known today. Her press statement:
I made a commitment to wait until the end of the primary process and now it is
time to make my choice. Barack Obama has won my support for President. Hillary Clinton ran a great race, I respect her hard work and commitment to the issues I care about, but Senator Obama's message of bringing our country together is in sync with the agenda of building rural-urban partnerships for the good of all of America.I care about issues facing rural families and businesses, everything from our food supply to the challenges of economic development, and Barack Obama is committed to ensuring that rural residents aren't left behind. All you have to do is compare the websites of John McCain and Barack Obama to see who is the candidate with real ideas to help rural communities. I am committed to delivering Barack Obama’s message of hope and change to voters all across the country and working to convince my fellow superdelegates who have yet to support a candidate to join me in
supporting him.
Congressman John Olver (MA)
--This Massachussetts member of Congress made his decision today after holding out for a long time as a result of his district's split vote for both candidates. An excerpt from the article:
"I think he gave more of a vision where he wanted to go," Olver said, in explaining his ultimate decision to back Obama over U.S. Sen. Hillary R. Clinton, D-N.Y. "Hillary was all about competence and experience," Olver said, but added that he was critical of her vote to allow the U.S. invasion into Iraq and that her experience was largely due to her role as First Lady and not through executive experience.
Joyce Beatty (OH)
--This DNC member from Columbus and Minority Leader of the Ohio state legislature threw her support to Obama today as well, citing her conversation with the Illinois Senator:
"I have spoken to Sen. Obama several times about his ideas for moving our nation past the failed policies of the Bush administration. I like Sen. Obama's stances on issues important to all Americans, and I am proud that an African-American has the trust and the support of people across all cross-sections of our society in this historic campaign. He has brought energy and an excitement to this race that inspires people, and he is the right person for the job."
Jennifer Dechant (ME)
--Citing the support for Obama from the majority of the Maine state convention delegates, Dechant also announced her decision to support Senator Obama.
Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO)
From her statement today:
"This is a year that the mere existence of a single candidate, Barack Obama, has inspired people in my district to believe in the greater good."
Carnelia Pettis-Fondren (MS)
--The Vice Chairwoman for the Mississippi DNC has announced her support for Obama today.
Per the article:
John Perez (CA)Fondren, an attorney, said Obama is "an equally impressive presidential candidate" and "a dynamic leader who offers a compelling vision for the future of our nation and the state of Mississippi."
"The people of our country have spoken and shown they support Sen. Obama - now it's time for party leaders to unite behind one candidate and head toward victory in November," Fondren said.
--This member of the California DNC and Los Angeles-based labor leader made his decision to support Obama on his belief that Obama would be "the best positioned to lead this party forward."
Of interest is that Perez' cousin is Los Angeles City Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who was an early and prolific supporter of the Clinton campaign.
Congressman Dennis Moore (KS)
--The Kansas Congressman announced his support for Obama today.
Harriet Windsor
“As a superdelegate from Delaware, I am representing the people of my state, where Barack Obama won in our primary. Senator Obama is an outstanding candidate who will unify the Democratic Party and be a strong candidate to beat Senator McCain in the November election."Rhett Ruggiero
--A Delaware DNC superdelegate
John Daniello
--The Delaware Democratic Party Chairman released the following:
“Senator Obama has inspired Democrats across the country over the course of this
primary, and we saw here in Delaware that his appeal will help our candidates up
and down the ballot. As a state party chairman, I know how valuable this contest
has been in energizing the grassroots, and I wanted every state to be able to
participate and reap the benefits of this historic race. Now that all of the
primaries and caucuses are behind us, I believe it’s time for Democrats to unite
in taking on John McCain, and I’m pleased to be joined by Rhett Ruggerio and
Secretary Windsor in endorsing Barack Obama for president.”
The Michigan Five plus One
Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
--Chairwoman of the Black Congressional Caucus
"From his years fighting for the poor on the South Side of Chicago to his proven
commitment to working families in the United States Senate, Barack has proven he
can lift up our nation and put the needs of our families and children first. We
need change in our country today, and we need a leader who will end the war in
Iraq and end the eight years of the failed policies of George W. Bush."
Kwame Kilpatrick
--Mayor of Detroit and DNC superdelegate
"I enthusiastically pledge my support to Senator Barack Obama, who will bring much needed hope, change and leadership to take our country in a new direction. I will work hard to ensure he will be victorious in November.”
Debbie Dingel
--DNC Superdelegate
"Now, as the nominating process comes to an end, it it time to unite behind
Barack Obama, who will be our Democratic nominee for the White House."
Rick Wiener
--DNC Superdelegate
"It is clear that Senator Obama will prevail as our nominee. It is time to unite
the party behind our candidate and close a historic primary season.”
Joyce Lalonde
--DNC Superdelegate
"With his leadership, we will move away from a nation of test bubblers to a nation of highly educated individuals that will return us to global leadership in all areas. I am excited to begin the campaign that brings America to the best that it can be."
Tina Abbott
--State DNC Vicechairwoman and Secretary-Treasurer of state AFL-CIO
Edwards' Delegate Switches
Sharon Nordgren (NH)
--State Representative Nordgren announced today her switch from Edwards to Obama. Nordgren is a pledged delegate and ups Obama's total from the Granite State.
A full list of the Edwards switches to Obama was released earlier today by the Obama campaign:
FLORIDA -- 10
Joseph Beuttenmuller, Lake Mary
Barry Birdwell, Melbourne Beach
E. Alan Brock, Crawfordville
Deborah Courtney, Jacksonville
Rita Ferrandino, Sarasota
Fred McDowell, Leesburg
Mary Mooney, Crawfordville
Linda Spisak, Hobe Sound
Gregory Shimkaveg, Oviedo
Bill Vincent, Gulf Breeze
IOWA -- 4
Machelle Crum, Newton
Arlene Prather-Kane, Cedar Falls
David Relawsk, Iowa City
Merci Wolff, Sioux City
SOUTH CAROLINA -- 8
Lauren Bilton, Columbia
Daniel Boan, Kershaw
Christine Brennan-Bond, Moore
Michael Evatt, Seneca (birthplace of Senator Edwards)
Robert Groce, Summerville
Marilyn Hemingway, Georgetown
Tim Moore, Barnwell
Susan Smith, Pawley’s Island
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 4
Deborah Bacon-Nelson, Hanover
Senator Peter Burling, Cornish
Rep. Sharon Nordgren, Hanover
Joshua Denton, Portsmouth
This makes a total of 26 pledged delegates worth 21 pledged delegate votes at the Convention (Florida pledged delegates are worth 0.5 votes) that have switched from Edwards to Obama.
These 21 pledged delegates represent a net gain for Obama (via switch) larger than most primaries afforded--more on this to come in a separate post.
Clinton Defections to Obama
--The California Congresswoman was a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton, but made her decision today to switch to Obama.
“Senator Hillary Clinton has run a superb campaign and has proven to be a hard worker while gaining the support of many key constituencies that will be essential for Democratic success in November. Despite that, Senator Obama’s delegate numbers more than describe the enthusiasm for his candidacy and I believe that by the end of the day, he will have the necessary numbers to become the Democratic Party nominee for President."
“It is now time to close ranks and time for all remaining delegates to put their support behind the presumptive nominee, Senator Obama. Senator Obama has run an effective campaign and has overcome many obstacles to create an energy that has brought many new Democrats into the party. Together, both of these candidates have generated an unprecedented involvement in Democratic Party politics. This is something that all Democrats can be proud of."
Kamil Hasan (CA)
--The California DNC superdelegate made the announcement of the switch from Clinton to Obama in the following press release:
Ben Johnson (DC)"I am endorsing Senator Obama as Democratic Party’s nominee not only because he
has clearly won more pledged delegates, but I sincerely believe that he can provide the necessary leadership in taking this country in a new direction at this critical juncture in our history. Fortunately, we have had two excellent candidates. I have great admiration for Senator Clinton and the way she has run a spirited, high energy, issues based campaign.I am looking forward to continue to energize the Indo-American and the South-Asian communities in ensuring that Senator Obama becomes the next President of the United States. His election as the President of the United States will not only help unite a very divided nation, but elevate the image of the United States in the world to a level not seen since John Kennedy was the President."
--A District of Columbia superdelegate finally makes his switch known today:
"It’s time to close ranks behind Barack Obama, who has run an outstanding campaign and made many of us proud. This is no way diminishes my respect and
admiration for Senator Clinton, who is a fine public servant who I have known for many years. But it is clear that Senator Obama has the momentum needed to help us win in November and I am proud to endorse him today."
Senator Clinton gains a Florida Super
More from Ben Smith:
In a strange move, Florida superdelegate Jon Ausman, who played a key role in forging the Florida and Michigan compromises in last weekend's Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting that spurned Clinton's demands, declared his support for Clinton.
Not because he feels Clinton is the best candidate, mind you. No, Ausman decided to endorse Clinton because he wants to "send a message that he [Obama] needs to unify our party." Huh?
Ausman didn't make this choice while he felt his endorsement could make an impact, however. Instead, he waited until he heard that Obama had enough votes to put him over the top, so that such a move would be purely symbolic.
Interesting. Score 0.5 delegates for Clinton, but it sounds like Ausman will vote for Obama at the Convention, so I'm not sure exactly how you score this one!
In a strange move, Florida superdelegate Jon Ausman, who played a key role in forging the Florida and Michigan compromises in last weekend's Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting that spurned Clinton's demands, declared his support for Clinton.
Not because he feels Clinton is the best candidate, mind you. No, Ausman decided to endorse Clinton because he wants to "send a message that he [Obama] needs to unify our party." Huh?
Ausman didn't make this choice while he felt his endorsement could make an impact, however. Instead, he waited until he heard that Obama had enough votes to put him over the top, so that such a move would be purely symbolic.
Interesting. Score 0.5 delegates for Clinton, but it sounds like Ausman will vote for Obama at the Convention, so I'm not sure exactly how you score this one!
Obama Breaks Clinton Stanglehold on NY Supers
On the day when he is expected to win the Democratic Nomination, Senator Obama gained a major symbolic endorsement from a New York superdelegate, Ralph Dawson.
Dawson had been the subject of speculation earlier in the campaign based on his desire to remain uncommitted despite having been reported to have given $1000 to the Obama campaign, and an undisclosed amount to the Clinton campaign as well.
Of the 46 automatic superdelegates and 3 add-on delegates from Senator Clinton's base of power, New York, all but 3 have endorsed their home Senator. Dawson becomes the second Obama supporter from this huge group, with only Party Leader George Mitchell remaining on the sidelines.
Compare this total to the 31 total (28 automatic, 3 add-on) superdelegates from Illinois, of which 28 have endorsed Obama, none for Clinton, and three undeclared still.
Just a side note to a long campaign in which each candidate had his or her own base of power--in this case Illinois proved more monolithic and stronger than New York, despite previous conventional wisdom.
Dawson had been the subject of speculation earlier in the campaign based on his desire to remain uncommitted despite having been reported to have given $1000 to the Obama campaign, and an undisclosed amount to the Clinton campaign as well.
Of the 46 automatic superdelegates and 3 add-on delegates from Senator Clinton's base of power, New York, all but 3 have endorsed their home Senator. Dawson becomes the second Obama supporter from this huge group, with only Party Leader George Mitchell remaining on the sidelines.
Compare this total to the 31 total (28 automatic, 3 add-on) superdelegates from Illinois, of which 28 have endorsed Obama, none for Clinton, and three undeclared still.
Just a side note to a long campaign in which each candidate had his or her own base of power--in this case Illinois proved more monolithic and stronger than New York, despite previous conventional wisdom.
Excellent Article about Clinton, Obama Primary Strategies
Reprinted in full:
Obama Advantage Grew From Long-Term Plan
While Clinton Hinged Strategy On Early Knockout, Obama Sought Delegates All Through Process
(AP) Unlike Hillary Rodham Clinton, rival Barack Obama planned for the long haul. Clinton hinged her whole campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama's staff researched congressional districts in states with primaries that were months away.
What they found were opportunities to win delegates, even in states they would eventually lose.
Obama's campaign mastered some of the most arcane rules in politics, and then used them to foil a front-runner who seemed to have every advantage - money, fame and a husband who had essentially run the Democratic Party for eight years as president.
"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."
Careful planning is one reason why Obama is emerging as the nominee as the Democratic Party prepares for its final three primaries, Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Attributing his success only to soaring speeches and prodigious fundraising ignores a critical part of contest. Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried.
Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries. In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake.
Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey. The research effort was headed by Jeffrey Berman, Obama's press-shy national director of delegate operations. Berman, who also tracked delegates in former Rep. Dick Gephardt's presidential bids, spent the better part of 2007 analyzing delegate opportunities for Obama. "The whole Clinton campaign thought this would be like previous campaigns, a battle of momentum," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "They thought she would be the only one would who could compete in such a momentous event as Super Tuesday."
Instead, Obama won a majority of the 23 Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5 and then spent the following two weeks racking up 11 straight victories, building an insurmountable lead among delegates won in primaries and caucuses.
What made it especially hard for Clinton to catch up was that Obama understood and took advantage of a nominating system that emerged from the 1970s and '80s, when the party struggled to find a balance between party insiders and its rank-and-file voters. Until the 1970s, the nominating process was controlled by party leaders, with ordinary citizens having little say. There were primaries and caucuses, but the delegates were often chosen behind closed doors, sometimes a full year before the national convention. That culminated in a 1968 national convention that didn't reflect the diversity of the party - racially or ideologically. The fiasco of the 1968 convention in Chicago, where police battled anti-war protesters in the streets, led to calls for a more inclusive process.
One big change was awarding delegates proportionally, meaning you can finish second or third in a primary and still win delegates to the party's national convention. As long as candidates get at least 15 percent of the vote, they are eligible for delegates.
The system enables strong second-place candidates to stay competitive and extend the race - as long as they don't run out of campaign money. "For people who want a campaign to end quickly, proportional allocation is a bad system," Devine said. "For people who want a system that is fair and reflective of the voters, it's a much better system."
Another big change was the introduction of superdelegates, the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can vote for whomever they choose regardless of what happens in the primaries and caucuses.
Superdelegates were first seated at the 1984 convention. Much has been made of them this year because neither Obama nor Clinton can reach the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination without their support.
A more subtle change was the distribution of delegates within each state. As part of the proportional system, Democrats award delegates based on statewide vote totals as well as results in individual congressional districts. The delegates, however, are not distributed evenly within a state, like they are in the Republican system. Under Democratic rules, congressional districts with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates are rewarded with more delegates than districts that are more Republican.
Some districts packed with Democratic voters can have as many as eight or nine delegates up for grabs, while more Republican districts in the same state have three or four. The system is designed to benefit candidates who do well among loyal Democratic constituencies, and none is more loyal than black voters. Obama, who would be the first black candidate nominated by a major political party, has been winning 80 percent to 90 percent of the black vote in most primaries, according to exit polls. "Black districts always have a large number of delegates because they are the highest performers for the Democratic Party," said Elaine Kamarck, a Harvard University professor who is writing a book about the Democratic nominating process. "Once you had a black candidate you knew that he would be winning large numbers of delegates because of this phenomenon," said Kamarck, who is also a superdelegate supporting Clinton.
In states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Clinton won the statewide vote but Obama won enough delegates to limit her gains. In states Obama carried, like Georgia and Virginia, he maximized the number of delegates he won. "The Obama campaign was very good at targeting districts in areas where they could do well," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a Clinton superdelegate from South Carolina. "They were very conscious and aware of these nuances."
But, Fowler noted, the best strategy in the world would have been useless without the right candidate. "If that same strategy and that same effort had been used with a different candidate, a less charismatic candidate, a less attractive candidate, it wouldn't have worked," Fowler said. "The reason they look so good is because Obama was so good."
©MMVIII, The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Obama Advantage Grew From Long-Term Plan
While Clinton Hinged Strategy On Early Knockout, Obama Sought Delegates All Through Process
(AP) Unlike Hillary Rodham Clinton, rival Barack Obama planned for the long haul. Clinton hinged her whole campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama's staff researched congressional districts in states with primaries that were months away.
What they found were opportunities to win delegates, even in states they would eventually lose.
Obama's campaign mastered some of the most arcane rules in politics, and then used them to foil a front-runner who seemed to have every advantage - money, fame and a husband who had essentially run the Democratic Party for eight years as president.
"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."
Careful planning is one reason why Obama is emerging as the nominee as the Democratic Party prepares for its final three primaries, Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Attributing his success only to soaring speeches and prodigious fundraising ignores a critical part of contest. Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried.
Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries. In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake.
Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey. The research effort was headed by Jeffrey Berman, Obama's press-shy national director of delegate operations. Berman, who also tracked delegates in former Rep. Dick Gephardt's presidential bids, spent the better part of 2007 analyzing delegate opportunities for Obama. "The whole Clinton campaign thought this would be like previous campaigns, a battle of momentum," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "They thought she would be the only one would who could compete in such a momentous event as Super Tuesday."
Instead, Obama won a majority of the 23 Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5 and then spent the following two weeks racking up 11 straight victories, building an insurmountable lead among delegates won in primaries and caucuses.
What made it especially hard for Clinton to catch up was that Obama understood and took advantage of a nominating system that emerged from the 1970s and '80s, when the party struggled to find a balance between party insiders and its rank-and-file voters. Until the 1970s, the nominating process was controlled by party leaders, with ordinary citizens having little say. There were primaries and caucuses, but the delegates were often chosen behind closed doors, sometimes a full year before the national convention. That culminated in a 1968 national convention that didn't reflect the diversity of the party - racially or ideologically. The fiasco of the 1968 convention in Chicago, where police battled anti-war protesters in the streets, led to calls for a more inclusive process.
One big change was awarding delegates proportionally, meaning you can finish second or third in a primary and still win delegates to the party's national convention. As long as candidates get at least 15 percent of the vote, they are eligible for delegates.
The system enables strong second-place candidates to stay competitive and extend the race - as long as they don't run out of campaign money. "For people who want a campaign to end quickly, proportional allocation is a bad system," Devine said. "For people who want a system that is fair and reflective of the voters, it's a much better system."
Another big change was the introduction of superdelegates, the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can vote for whomever they choose regardless of what happens in the primaries and caucuses.
Superdelegates were first seated at the 1984 convention. Much has been made of them this year because neither Obama nor Clinton can reach the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination without their support.
A more subtle change was the distribution of delegates within each state. As part of the proportional system, Democrats award delegates based on statewide vote totals as well as results in individual congressional districts. The delegates, however, are not distributed evenly within a state, like they are in the Republican system. Under Democratic rules, congressional districts with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates are rewarded with more delegates than districts that are more Republican.
Some districts packed with Democratic voters can have as many as eight or nine delegates up for grabs, while more Republican districts in the same state have three or four. The system is designed to benefit candidates who do well among loyal Democratic constituencies, and none is more loyal than black voters. Obama, who would be the first black candidate nominated by a major political party, has been winning 80 percent to 90 percent of the black vote in most primaries, according to exit polls. "Black districts always have a large number of delegates because they are the highest performers for the Democratic Party," said Elaine Kamarck, a Harvard University professor who is writing a book about the Democratic nominating process. "Once you had a black candidate you knew that he would be winning large numbers of delegates because of this phenomenon," said Kamarck, who is also a superdelegate supporting Clinton.
In states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Clinton won the statewide vote but Obama won enough delegates to limit her gains. In states Obama carried, like Georgia and Virginia, he maximized the number of delegates he won. "The Obama campaign was very good at targeting districts in areas where they could do well," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a Clinton superdelegate from South Carolina. "They were very conscious and aware of these nuances."
But, Fowler noted, the best strategy in the world would have been useless without the right candidate. "If that same strategy and that same effort had been used with a different candidate, a less charismatic candidate, a less attractive candidate, it wouldn't have worked," Fowler said. "The reason they look so good is because Obama was so good."
©MMVIII, The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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