More on the May 3rd Guam contest

By most accounts, Guam has never been more than even a ceremonial blip on the path toward nomination for the Democratic Party, given its late position on the nomination calendar and its seemingly inconsequential number of pledged delegates (four). In fact, there are more superdelegates at play than there are pledged delegates, and by some accounts, Clinton seems destined to finish the nomination race with a sizable lead in superdelegates from Guam.

When using different "delegate predictor" features on different sites, such as Slate's, it appears that in order for a candidate to break the likely 2-2 tie, that candidate would have to capture over 62.5% of the votes to produce a 3-1 lead, and over 85% of the vote to sweep 4-0 by denying the opponent the 15% viability threshold.

What these prior analyses don't show, and what recent articles such as this one show, is that these four delegates are really representative of eight delegates, each with a half-vote. This scenario plays out much like the Democrats Abroad primary, where each delegate had a half-vote as well.

Given this half-vote scenario, it is now much easier for a candidate to gain a full delegate from this contest by winning it 2.5 to 1.5.

One version of how this contest will play out is as follows, although this account appears to be outdated or inaccurate regarding the pledged delegates:

--Six delegates are chosen as pledged delegates, each with a half-vote.
--One unpledged delegate, a Democratic Member of Congress, will have one vote.
--Four unpledged Democratic National Committee members will have four votes as Superdelegates.

Thus, Guam will have a total of 11 delegates voting as 8 delegates:
3 pledged delegate votes
1 unpledged delegate vote
4 superdelegate votes

This information seems conflicting with what a Daily Kos blogger reports as how the Obama Campaign sees this contest, as reported here.

What I consider the authority on this matter, however, is found here on TheGreenPapers. This source confirms for me how this process works.

Secret ballot like at a primary, and then the delegates are allocated like in a caucus where 15% viability is needed to gain delegates.

As I find out more information, I'll update this post.

HERE IS THE KEY:

If it is really 8 delegates with a half-vote each, then winning the threshold to create a 2.5 to 1.5 victory will be vitally important and thus a victory in terms of pledged delegates. Otherwise, a 2-2 split will be as previously expected.