The Clinton Matrix: May 21st Edition--Post Kentucky/Oregon

THE CLINTON MATRIX: POST KENTUCKY / OREGON

For the first time in the Clinton Matrix history, Senator Clinton's only chances at even the most extreme boundaries of pledged/add-on delegate distribution requires her to gain over 90% of the remaining undeclared automatic superdelegates.

Senator Clinton cannot win the nomination (as is) even if she receives 55% of both add-on and pledged delegates.

To put this all in context, let's examine Senator Clinton's most practical chance to get to 2025:

1st: Win 50% (or 20) of the 39 add-on delegates left. (Never mind that the remaining states favor Obama big time)

2nd: Win 65% (or 58) of the remaining 89 pledged delegates--which includes contests in South Dakota (Obama win) and Montana (Obama win) and the last few delegates from Oregon (Obama win).

3rd: Win 97.7% (or 166) of the remaining 170 undeclared automatic superdelegates, even though a large number of them are already Obama supporters waiting to declare.

This is not a realistic scenario by any means.

And let's not forget, as I and others have posted before:

Obama should finish with a projected 40-42 of the remaining 86 pledged delegates after Oregon is cleaned up. This puts him at 1686-1688 pledged delegates. Throw in the 67 he won in Florida along with the 13 from Edwards, and even without an allocation from Michigan, he will have 1766-1768 pledged delegates. Add in the nine remaining Edwards delegates and you get a total of 1775-1777 pledged delegates.

The new magic number for pledged delegate majority should Clinton get both Michigan and Florida seated exactly as they "voted" earlier would be [(3253 + 313) / (2)] = 1783. Obama would then need at most 8 more pledged delegates to gain this second "magic number". Any allocation out of Michigan will give Obama more than 8 pledged delegates, considering that "uncommitted" on the Michigan ballot would have gained 55 pledged delegates total.

An Add-On for Clinton, a Congressman and State Chair for Obama

In the wake of a split decision in Oregon and Kentucky, the stream of superdelegates has slowed down today considerably from last week when Senator Obama was rolling out 4-5 superdelegates a day.

Senator Clinton won the second add-on delegate for Ohio, after the first one opted to endorse Obama. As Ben Smith at Politico.com reported, Ohio add-on Craig Bashein has endorsed Senator Clinton.

There was discussion that the Ohio state party would select an Obama and a Clinton supporter for its add-on delegates. The timing of this add-on delegate's decision was most likely orchestrated by the Clinton campaign to build on the Kentucky win yesterday.

Senator Obama picked up two superdelegates today--Connecticut Congressman Joe Courtney from and Mississippi State Party Chairman Wayne Dowdy.

The Clinton Matrix: May 20th Edition, Pre-Oregon/Kentucky Results

Here you go...

The odds are bleaker and bleaker for Senator Clinton. Her only chance is to keep above a 65% clip on pledged delegate gains in both Oregon and Kentucky. That scenario will not happen tonight, perhaps not even in Kentucky unless she pulls off another victory like West Virginia.

If she only nets a handful of pledged delegates today, let's say five (Clinton 31-20 in Kentucky; Obama 29-23 in Oregon), she would need 50% of the remaining add-ons and 65% of the remaining pledged delegates in Puerto Rico/South Dakota/Montana just to stay mathematically alive with the superdelegates. That would require 56 of the last 86 pledged delegates available. Losing South Dakota and Montana would probably result in a 18-13 split for Obama, meaning she'd have to sweep somehow Puerto Rico by a 43-12 margin in delegates. Heck, you practically get 12 delegates just for showing up, in proporational allocations.

The focus now is on Obama securing 1627, and in a pinch, 1783.5 if Florida and Michigan are seated without sanction. Obama should come close to splitting the remaining pledged delegates from OR/KY/MT/SD/PR, meaning he would add 94 to his total of 1612, giving him 1706 pledged delegates and leaving him 77.5 pledged delegates shy of the new mark. He won 72 in Florida by himself, and adding a few of the Edwards delegates to his total would push him over the top without any extra work in Michigan to seat delegates in his favor there.

It's been said before, but it bears repeating. The delegate math is over for Senator Clinton.

The irony here is that her push for "making sure everyone votes" really has nothing to do with the "will of the people" in Kentucky and other states at this stage of the game--it has to do with seating the automatic delegates from Florida and Michigan and relying on the undeclared automatic delegates to push her near the nomination.

More on Delegate Math

A good presentation, once again, by Chuck Todd of MSNBC on the delegate math moving forward from today's contest. I wrote previously about this topic here, noting that the path toward the pledged and total delegate majorities in any scenario are becoming clearer and more probably every week.

Clinton Receives Endorsement from Massachussetts' Add-On Delegate

Despite Senator Obama having a stranglehold on key Democratic leaders in the Massachussetts state party, Senator Clinton was able to win a strong victory in the state on Super Tuesday in February.

Senator Clinton capped off her display of strength in the state by winning over the second of two add-on delegates awarded to Massachussetts and named by the State Party at their convention. Massachussetts Attorney General Martha Coakley made public her endorsement today, giving Clinton both add-on delegates from this traditionally Democratic state.

Obama Wins Over 5 Superdelegates Monday, 2 More So Far on Tuesday

In the run-up to the Oregon and Kentucky primaries (52 and 51 pledged delegates respectively), Senator Obama has racked up at least another seven superdelegates. Senator Clinton has not garnered a superdelegate since California DNC superdelegate Umemoto announced for her last Friday.

The seven supers for Obama:

Two members of the Alaska superdelegate pool, DNC members Cindy Spanyers and Blake Johnson. These two superdelegates were the last two uncommitted in the state, although the Alaska add-on delegate will be named on May 23rd. Alaska has four automatic superdelegates (Obama leads 3-1) and one add-on superdelegate.

Bookending Kansas Lieutenant Governor Parkinson's endorsement of Obama over the weekend as an add-on delegate, Kansas Democratic Party Chair Larry Gates has also announced for Obama.

Another State Chairman, this time Washington's Dwight Pelz, also came out for Obama. This development may net another two add-on delegates for Obama on June 15th when the state of Washington holds its state convention. Pelz, as State Chairman, will make the nominations for the add-on delegates to be voted upon by the State Committee. As we've seen before, State Chair decisions play heavily in deciding who the add-on delegates will be for certain states.

As Senator Obama prepares to accept the results of the Oregon primary today in Iowa, it is fitting that he would also pick up the support of Iowa Democratic State Chair Scott Brennan.

Just a few weeks after Obama squeaked out a win in Guam by seven votes, he has now picked up the support of Guam superdelegate Madeleine Bordallo.

Finally, and most importantly, the second of West Virginia's Senators, Robert Byrd, has endorsed Senator Obama's candidacy for President.


And another Michigan Superdelegate for Obama

And to put this out there, Michigan superdelegate Eric Coleman, Oakland County Commissioner, has endorsed Obama. While this endorsement doesn't mean much today, it may mean a lot more if the Michigan delegate is allowed to be seated at the Convention. This announcement makes the invalidated superdelegate count from Michigan to be Clinton 8, Obama 4, Undeclared 16, with two add-on delegates to be named on June 14th.

Weekend Add-On Delegate News: Obama 4, Clinton 3, Uncommitted 1

As previously discussed here, Obama was favored to win at least four, with a chance for five, of the eight add-on delegates available from the weekend. Clinton was favored to win three, and possibly four, of the same add-on delegates.

The Kansas add-on delegate was already named and declared for Obama.

As previously announced by California Democratic State Chair Art Torres, the five add-on delegates for the state (the most for any state) would be split on a 3-for-Clinton/2-for-Obama basis. Torres held true to this declaration. Clinton supporters named were Dario Frommer, Carolyn Doggett and Dora Rubio; Obama supporters named were William Quay Hays and Lou Paulson.

Also as reported previously by DemConWatch, Federico Pena was named as the Colorado add-on delegate.

Nevada's add-on delegate was named but has openly stated that he is uncommitted. Rusty McAllister's decision to remain uncommitted seems to have been a strategy to be attractive as possible in a state that was a toss-up (Clinton won the vote, Obama won the delegates).

The tally for the add-on delegates named this weekend: Obama 4, Clinton 3, Uncommitted 1