Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Is the Pledged Delegate Race Over?

According to Slate.com, it is.

With the very easy assumption that Senator Obama will gain viability in each of the remaining contests (15%), Senator Obama is projected to finish the pledged delegate race with a lead of 1630.5 to 1612.5. That's an absolute worst case scenario for Obama. It's likely he'd gain those many votes even if he decided to quit the race at this point!

Even giving Clinton a 75-25 margin of victory in her three likely victories (West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico) and a 60-40 victory in her three likely losses (Oregon, South Dakota and Montana), she still is projected to finish behind Obama by a count of 1655.5 to 1577.5 (margin: 78 pledged delegates).

How about if she beats Obama by 30 points in her likely states and ties him in his likely states? She finishes behind by 132 pledged delegates at that point.

Simple point: Obama will cross the magic number of 1627 on May 20th. Clinton has no chance to overtake Obama in the pledged delegate race unless somehow Michigan and Florida were given amnesty (which would require an Obama campaign blessing) and she outperformed the projections in each of the remaining states.

It will be interesting to see the Clinton Matrix for tomorrow with these results.

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