The Clinton Nomination Matrix: May 5th Edition

I have changed the format of this matrix a little bit.

First, I have updated all the numbers so that the add-on delegates remaining to be won, and the pledged delegates remaining to be won, are accurate.

There are 48 add-on delegates to be named, and 6 add-on delegates left undeclared, so there are officially 54 add-on delegates that have not made a decision yet.

Also, the four Guam pledged delegates are now off the board, bringing down the number of pledged delegates to 404. After tomorrow's Indiana and North Carolina primaries I will revise these numbers.

As a result, the clean, neat projections of a 50/50 split between Obama and Clinton for each of these categories now becomes more nuanced, as different states come off the board for both pledged delegates and add-on delegates.

However, Senator Clinton is not expected to win more than 55% of the remaining pledged delegates or add-on delegates, which means that under the best of scenarios, she will need 78.6% of the remaining automatic (i.e. superdelegates that are not add-on) delegates to pick her to give her the nomination.

If she manages a split with Senator Obama in both categories from here on out, she will need essentially 90% of the superdelegates to move her way to capture the nomination.

As time goes on I want you to focus on the bright red part of the chart. These are options that are off the table for Clinton, because it would require her to win more superdelegates than those that actually remain, meaning she would need defections from Obama delegates. This scenario is not likely.

Notice how the bright red portion of the matrix continues to grow and grow as more pledged, add-on and superdelegates are selected and declared.