As a result of the primary results yesterday (although 7 delegates unallocated still) and the superdelegate movement today, there has been a seismic shift in the possibilities in play for Senator Clinton to still reach 2025 and win the nomination.
The center squares have indicated a range of options that are most probable for Senator Clinton to achieve, given the unlikelihood of the add-on delegates or pledged delegates breaking hard for either candidate, unless that candidate was Barack Obama. The outer rings were possible, but unlikely, given the reality of proportional allocation of pledged delegates and state-by-state insulated decisions for add-ons.
Currently, no option exists for Senator Clinton if she only wins half of the 224 pledged delegates remaining, as there will be fewer superdelegates remaining than the number she needs to reach 2025.
If she manages to win 55% of the remaining pledged delegates, which would require a highly unlikely 123-101 split between her and Senator Obama, she still needs to garner at least 55% of the add-on delegate total to stay mathematically alive to capture the remaining superdelegates in a range between 98% and 100%.
Winning 55% of the add-on delegates would require her to beat Senator Obama at least 30-24 in a process where he should end up with a majority of add-on delegates.
If just two more superdelegates announce for Obama, then Clinton will need a 60% pickup in either pledged or add-ons just to remain alive.
At this point the only realistic chance Clinton has is a double whammy of a Michigan/Florida seating that cuts into Obama's pledged delegate lead, plus an event to force a major drop in the polls for Obama to increase her future pledged delegate lead, plus allow the superdelegates to break for her at an alarming clip.
The mainstream media are using numbers like 70% as the number of superdelegates needed for her to capture the nomination.
The reality is that Clinton will need 90% or better in even a highly charitable scenario.
As I've explained earlier, the add-on delegate situation is extremely important to consider, and entirely separate, from the undeclared superdelegates on the Hill or in the DNC. This block of unpledged delegate votes represents 1/5th of the remaining total unpledged votes.
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