Why Obama Will Win the Nomination by June 15th

All along this site has proclaimed the power of the add-on delegates, and again it is the add-on delegates that are sealing the fate for Senator Clinton while the unpledged automatic delegates sit on the sidelines. Unlike the automatic delegates who are caught up in multiple levels of pressure in terms of which candidate they will endorse, the add-on delegates are typically selected exactly because of their stated preference for a candidate.

According to NBC News, Senator Obama is 48.5 total delegates away from reaching the nomination-clinching number of 2026 (pending results of the Michigan/Florida issue).

In the last three contests, there is a total of 84 pledged delegates remaining, with 31 in South Dakota and Montana, and 55 in Puerto Rico.

According to recent polls, Obama is expected to win handily in South Dakota and Montana. Given the proportional allocation rules and the very small number of pledged delegates in each of these two states, these Obama wins will result in a 9-7 and 8-7 split in the most likely scenario. This result would mean a 17-14 pledged delegate win in those two states.

Senator Clinton is favored in Puerto Rico, but again the proportional allocation rules will keep the pledged delegate differential at a modest number. Senator Clinton is expected to win between 30 and 35 pledged delegates from the commonwealth, which in turn would result in an expected pickup of 20-25 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Worst case scenario sees Senator Obama picking up a minimum of 37 pledged delegates in the remaining contests, leaving him 11.5 total delegates short of the magic number.

From now until June 15th, there will be 22 add-on delegates awarded during state conventions. The following states take action in the next three weeks, with blue states signifying Obama wins, red states signifying Clinton wins and green (Texas) signifying a split decision:

• June 1: Maine (1)
• June 7: Kentucky (1), Minnesota (2), Pennsylvania (3), Texas (3), Vermont (1), Mississippi (1)
• June 8: Montana (1)
• June 13: Wisconsin (2)
• June 14: Idaho (1), Iowa (1), Virginia (2), West Virginia (1)
• June 15: Washington (1)

Obama-states feature 13 add-on delegates, Clinton-states feature 5 add-on delegates, and Texas is a tie and has 3 add-on delegates.

Even among these states, the math doesn't help Clinton because Pennsylvania may cede an add-on delegate to Obama, as might Texas.

So, if each state holds true to form (and Obama's states were big wins for him there), then even without another automatic superdelegate making an endorsement, Obama will cross the 2026 threshold on June 14th when Virginia makes its two selections.

Of course, if Michigan and Florida are resolved in such a way that Senator Clinton is favored, Senator Obama will need to make up the difference with more automatic delegates announcing to overcome the deficit.

I like the theories abounding that allowing the pledged delegate wins on June 3rd be the decisive factor, if enough automatic delegates make up their minds right before then.

I think that perhaps the reason why there is not the expected "deluge" of automatic delegates for Obama yet is that they are being kept in reserve until the results of the Michigan/Florida compromise are known. There is still time between that decision and the June 3rd primaries to make such a large move that would allow Obama to go over the top on June 3rd if the automatic delegates are coordinated.

If the Michigan/Florida situation remains unresolved, and 2026 remains the magic number, then Obama is sure to hit it by June 15th.