THE CLINTON MATRIX
The end is nigh.
After the 4-1 pick up of add-on delegates over the weekend, plus the 4-pledged-delegate swing in Obama's favor, the Clinton Matrix is almost completely red, which indicates an impossible situation for Senator Clinton to gain the nomination (under the current 2025/2026 clinching number).
Keep in mind that this chart projects different outcomes with the pledged and add-on delegates, which follow their own rules, as opposed to the automatic delegates, which are unbounded. Senator Clinton will need to win every single uncommitted automatic delegate remaining even if she somehow were to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates (very unlikely) and 70% of the add-on delegates (near impossible). If somehow Clinton were to win 70% of both totals, she would still need 97% of the remaining automatic delegates to clinch, or 169/174 of this group.
For the entire grid to go red, Obama only needs to pick up 33 of the remaining pledged delegates, or 17 of the remaining add-on delegates, or some combination of 41 delegates from both the add-on and pledged totals.
Obama is on pace to pick up 17 pledged delegates in South Dakota and Montana, and at least 22 from Puerto Rico, which means that if he receives two more add-on delegates, or outperforms the weak total in Puerto Rico, he can effectively remove any hope for Clinton from any genuine or serious discussion of Clinton's chances to win the nomination.
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