Thursday, May 29, 2008

Which States Have the Most Remaining Superdelegates?

Most states' superdelegates have declared one way or the other at this point, but the states that still have a large number of superdelegates may be able to coalesce those votes for favors or large consideration at the Convention if they coordinate appropriately.

The following states have the highest number of superdelegates remaining form their delegation, including unnamed add-on delegates.
  • California: 14
  • Texas: 10 (includes 3 add-ons)
  • Ohio: 9
  • Maryland: 8
  • North Carolina: 7 (includes 2 add-ons)
  • Pennsylvania: 7 (includes 3 add-ons)
  • Tennessee: 7 (includes 1 add-on)
  • Virginia: 7 (includes 2 add-ons)
  • Louisiana: 6
  • Massachussetts: 6
  • Missouri: 6 (includes 1 add-on)
  • Montana: 5 (includes 1 add-on)
  • Nevada: 5 (includes 1 add-on)
  • Washington: 5 (includes 2 add-ons)

All other states have less than 5 remaining superdelegates.

There have been rumors that the California delegation would make a big move, whether from remaining superdelegates or from currently declared superdelegates for Clinton.

What has to be alarming to Senator Clinton is that so many of these superdelegates come from states that have gone for her, including Ohio, California, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. You would think that if there were undeclared Clinton supporters in this group, they would come out now instead of waiting to help the Clinton campaign at a moment of desperation. You have to wonder if there are Obama supporters in this mix that are in Clinton districts or conservative districts, and that an open declaration would jeopardize their future re-election efforts.

I'll do more analysis on this later.

Also, these states have no more superdelegates remaining (and thus no leverage):

Alaska

America Samoa

Democrats Abroad

Guam

Hawaii

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