However, Clinton won the state's pledged delegates by a 38-34 margin, and the analysis of how this happens helps provide an insight into how pledged delegates are gained in the Democratic primary process.
Indiana's 72 pledged delegates were divided into 11 separate contests: Pledged delegates won in each of Indiana's nine congressional districts, pledged at-large delegates determined by statewide results, and pledged Party Leader/Elected Officials (PLEOs) determined by statewide results.
Congressional Districts
47 of the 72 pledged delegates were awarded through each of Indiana's nine Congressional Districts.
The odd number of pledged delegates available through this part of the contest ensured that one candidate would be assured of a net pick-up through this phase.
Each Congressional District was awarded pledged delegates based on factors such as registered Democrats and turnout in prior Presidential and State elections. Five Districts had 6 delegates, three had 4 delegates and one had 5 delegates:
CD1: 6
CD2: 6
CD3: 4
CD4: 4
CD5: 4
CD6: 5
CD7: 6
CD8: 6
CD9: 6
Under the Democratic Primary proportional allocation rules, the number of delegates won per Congressional District (or whatever district used) is based on two factors: share of vote and threshold.
The first factor, share of vote, simply reflects the percent of the vote that each candidate receives.
The second factor, threshold, is different for districts with different numbers of delegates to offer.
Six-Delegate Districts
For example, in the districts with 6 pledged delegates, a 3-3 split is guaranteed if the winner's share of the vote does not exceed 58.5% in the district.
- If the winner gains less than 58.5%, then that winner splits the delegates 3-3 with the loser.
- If the winner gains between 58.5% and 75%, then that winner gets 4 of the 6 pledged delegates. (4-2 split)
- If the winner gains between 75% and 85%, then the winner gets 5 of the 6 pledged delegates. (5-1 split)
- If the winner gains over 85%, then that means the loser did not reach viability in the district, and all 6 pledged delegates go to the winner. (6-0 split)
Indiana had five districts with 6 pledged delegates at stake. The results are below:
CD1: Obama 52.7% = 3-3 split
CD2: Clinton 50.9% = 3-3 split
CD7: Obama 70.0% = 4-2 win for Obama
CD8: Clinton 59.4% = 4-2 win for Clinton
CD9: Clinton 63.4% = 4-2 win for Clinton
In these five districts with 765,167 votes cast, Obama won 380,622 votes (49.7% ) and Clinton won 384,505 votes (50.3%), yet Clinton netted 16 of 30 pledged delegates simply because she squeezed past the 58.5% threshold in two districts while Obama's strong performance in CD7 wasn't enough to get him past the next hurdle, the 75% threshold, to capitalize on that margin of victory.
If Obama was able to carry 75% of CD7's district, he would have won 5 of 6 of that district's pledged delegates and this four-delegate margin would have erased Clinton's double two-delegate margin in CD8 and CD9.
Similarly, if Clinton had gained 1% less of the vote in CD8, she would not have crossed the 58.5% threshold there and she would have split those delegates 3-3 with Obama, also creating a tie among these five districts.
Five-Delegate Districts
Only one district in Indiana had an odd number of delegates, and that was CD6 with five pledged delegates. Obviously a win in this district means the candidate gets at least a 3-2 split. Clinton carried 58.4% of the district.
For Clinton to have gained a 4-1 split in this district, she would have needed 70% of the vote, a much higher threshold than the 58.5% threshold for six-delegate districts to gain the extra margin. So, anywhere between a 50% and 70% win for a candidate results in a one-delegate margin of victory. If a candidate is close to that 70% share of the vote, then it makes sense to pour more resources into turnout to cross the threshold, while it would not make sense to do that if the candidate was at 58%.
A 4-1 split here with a 70%+ share of the vote would yield a three-delegate gain. Interestingly, Obama's 70%+ win in CD7 (with six delegates) only netted him two delegates, because of the difference in thresholds between districts of different delegate numbers.
Four-Delegate Districts
The remaining three districts in Indiana were four-delegate districts, with their own thresholds for delegate allocation.
The thresholds here are different than in those listed above. The threshold for a candidate to reach in order to cause a 3-1 split in delegates is 62.5% of the vote. Anywhere between 50% and 62.5% yields a 2-2 split.
To capture all 4 delegates, a candidate would have to win by 85%+ in order to make the opponent non-viable in the district.
Here were the results:
CD3: Obama 52.4% (2-2 split)
CD4: Clinton 50.7% (2-2 split)
CD5: Obama 51.8% (2-2 split)
So, in these three districts, the results were a wash, despite Obama outgaining Clinton by 188,222 - 179,907.
District Conclusions
Clinton outgained Obama by 3,883 votes in the five districts with six delegates each, and because of the way the thresholds worked in those districts, she was able to net two more delegates than Obama from those five districts.
Obama outgained Clinton by 8,315 votes in the three districts with four delegates each, but because of the way these thresholds worked, he could not net any delegates over his opponent.
Obama also had the bad luck of losing in a district that had an odd number of delegates, which gave Clinton an automatic net delegate from that district. If CD6 was a four-delegate district and CD5 was a five-delegate district, then Obama would have lost 24-23 in these districts. Instead, Clinton ended up with a 25-22 advantage here for a three delegate margin.
CLINTON 25 -- OBAMA 22
Pledged At-Large Delegates:
16 pledged delegates in Indiana were of the at-large variety, which depended upon the final tally of the statewide vote in the allocation of these delegates.
Obama and Clinton both gained 8 delegates from this pool, as a result of the even number of delegates at hand and the close race.
CLINTON 8 -- OBAMA 8
Pledged PLEOs (Party Leader/Elected Official) Delegates:
Nine of the state's pledged delegates were allocated through this category, ensuring the winner of the state with at least a 5-4 advantage.
As a result of the close race, this slim margin of one-delegate remained the final result of this category of pledged delegates.
CLINTON 5 -- OBAMA 4
FINAL RESULTS:
72 Pledged Delegates at stake
CLINTON 38 -- OBAMA 34
CLINTON gains 25 District, 8 At-Large and 5 PLEO pledged delegates.
OBAMA gains 22 District, 8 At-Large and 4 PLEO pledged delegates.
Interestingly enough, if Obama had been able to keep Clinton under 58.5% in CD8 and CD9 while having the fortune of having the only odd-numbered delegate district be in his column, Obama would have won this delegate contest by a 37-35 margin.
Obama needed 2,716 more votes (or 3,809 less votes for Clinton) in CD8 and 12,474 more votes (or 17, 584 less votes for Clinton) in CD9 to force a tie in the pledged delegate race.
There are contests with each state contest, and understanding how the delegates break out helps to eliminate some of the confusion involved in how delegates are actually allocated.
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