My apologies for the terrible format of the JPEG of my Delegate Tracker, which is the accompanying piece to my Clinton Matrix.
Click on the picture above to see the Delegate Tracker in more clarity, and you will find exactly how the delegate landscape looks from here on out.
The Magic Number is still 2025.5 total delegates to clinch the nomination, pending the results of the Michigan/Florida debate on Saturday.
At this point in the nomination race, given the projected allocation of pledged delegates in the remaining three contests (at a very conservative clip for Senator Obama), Senator Clinton would need to do the following to reach 2025.5:
- Capture every single one of the 164 undeclared automatic superdelegates remaining
- Capture every single one of the 34 unnamed/undeclared add-on delegates remaining
- Capture at least one of the remaining 7 unclaimed Edwards delegates
There are no more delegates left for Senator Clinton to go after in this scenario, save an attempt to defect Obama superdelegates to her camp.
If a combination of seven more undeclared automatic superdelegates, unnamed/undeclared add-on delegates and unclaimed Edwards delegates announces for Obama, then Senator Clinton will be mathematically eliminated from reaching 2025.5 unless Obama suffers defections from his superdelegate total.
All of this analysis is rendered partially moot should the Michigan/Florida decision come back forcing Senator Obama to increase his superdelegate total by a larger margin to capture the nomination.
UPDATE: Another automatic superdelegate has declared for Senator Obama in the meantime, so Clinton now needs TWO Edwards delegates in addition to every single one of the remaining undeclared automatic delegates and the uncommitted add-on delegates to reach 2025.5.
It will be interesting to see if Obama can claim this new metric prior to Saturday. I'm betting he does.
No comments:
Post a Comment