Saturday, May 31, 2008

Democratic Rules & Bylaws Committee Reaches Compromise on Michigan and Florida

Here is the latest from today's epic DNC RBC meeting:

MICHIGAN:

Previously:

Michigan had 128 pledged delegates, 28 automatic delegates and 2 add-on delegates for a total of 158 total delegates.

As a result of the January Primary, Senator Clinton would have received 73 pledged delegates and "uncommitted" would have received 55 pledged delegates.

As of today, Senator Clinton had received the endorsement of eight (8) automatic delegates and Senator Obama had received the endorsement of five (5) automatic delegates. The two add-on delegates will be announced on June 14th, 2008.

Results:



  1. All total delegates from Michigan will be halved. There are now 128 pledged delegates casting 64 votes at the Convention, 28 automatic delegates casting 14 votes at the Convention, and 2 add-on delegates casting 1 vote at the Convention.
  2. Senator Clinton received 69 of the 128 pledged delegates; Senator Obama received 59 of the 128 pledged delegates.
  3. The effective pledged delegate votes for each candidate: Clinton 34.5, Obama 29.5
  4. Senator Obama is guaranteed the state's two add-on delegates with half-vote each.

Including the automatic delegates already declared and the future add-on delegate guarantee, as a result of today's actions,

Senator Clinton gains 38.5 total delegate votes (34.5 pledged, 4.0 automatic)

Senator Obama gains 33 total delegate votes (29.5 pledged, 2.5 automatic, 1.0 add-on)

The Clinton campaign nets a +5.5 total of delegates today from the State of Michigan.

The Obama campaign is hardly damaged by this result and removes the most dangerous contentious point of the campaign from the Clinton arsenal, ending the possibility of an ugly floor fight at the convention.

FLORIDA:

Previously:

Florida had 185 pledged delegates, 23 automatic delegates and 3 add-on delegates for a total of 211 total delegates.

As a result of the January primary, Senator Clinton received 105 pledged delegates, Senator Obama received 67 pledged delegates and John Edwards received 13 pledged delegates.

As of today, Senator Clinton has received the endorsement of 8 automatic delegates, and Senator Obama has received the support of 4 automatic delegates. Of the three add-on delegates allocated on April 5th, Senator Obama received one add-on delegate and Senator Clinton zero, with two remaining uncommitted.

Results:

  1. All total delegates from Florida will be halved and seated as a result of the January Primary.
  2. There are now a total of 185 pledged delegates casting 92.5 votes at the convention, 23 automatic delegates casting 11.5 votes at the convention, and 3 add-on delegates casting 1.5 votes at the convention, for a total of 105.5 votes at the convention.
  3. Senator Clinton's 105 pledged delegates will cast 52.5 votes, Senator Obama's 67 pledged delegates will cast 33.5 votes, and Edwards' 13 pledged delegates will cast 6.5 votes.
  4. The effective pledged delegate vote for each candidate: Clinton 52.5, Obama 33.5, Edwards 6.5.

Senator Clinton picks up 56.5 total delegates (52.5 pledged, 4.0 automatic, 0.0 add-on)

Senator Obama picks up of 36 total delegates (33.5 pledged, 2.0 automatic and 0.5 add-on)

John Edwards picks up 6.5 pledged delegates.

However, 9 of Edwards 13 pledged delegates (now 4.5 of 6.5) have already pledged to go with Obama.

Obama's pick up is now 40.5 total delegates (38 pledged, 2.0 automatic, 0.5 add-on) and Edwards' pick up is now 2.5 pledged delegates

There remain 11 automatic delegates and 2 add-on delegates with 6.5 votes total among them from the State of Florida.

UBER RESULTS

The new number of total delegate votes at the convention is 4235.5 (4051 previously + 184.5 Michigan/Florida).

The new magic number to clinch the nomination is 2118.

The new number of pledged delegates is now 3409.5 (3253 previously + 156.5 Michigan/Florida)

The new magic number to clinch the pledged delegate majority is 1705.

With the addition of the Michigan and Florida delegates pledged and committed, Senator Obama currently has the following:

PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1728.5

1661 before today + 67.5 today (29.5 MI / 33.5FL / 4.5 Edwards) = 1728.5 pledged delegates.

With 1705 the new pledged delegate majority, Senator Obama still secures this pledged delegate majority metric.

SUPERDELEGATES (Automatic + Add-on): 329.5

323.5 before today + 6 today (3.5 MI / 2.5 FL) = 329.5 superdelegates (303 automatic + 26.5 add-on)

TOTAL DELEGATES: 2058

OBAMA needs 60 more total delegates to secure the nomination.

With a lock on at least 40 pledged delegates in South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico, Senator Obama will likely need 20 more automatic and add-on delegates to wrap up the nomination.

The numbers for Senator Clinton:

PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1587

1500 before today + 87 today = 1587 pledged

SUPERDELEGATES: 293.5

284.5 before today + 1 gained today + 8 MI/FL = 293.5 superdelegates (276.5 automatic + 17 add-on).

TOTAL DELEGATES: 1880.5

Senator Clinton needs 229.5 total delegates to secure the nomination.

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