Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Looks Like a 64%-31% Victory for Clinton

If the exit polls can be extrapolated by any means, it looks like Clinton will pull out a 33% margin of victory over Obama today in West Virginia.

If these numbers hold, then Clinton should be able to garner 4 of the 6 pledged delegates in each of West Virginia's three Congressional Districts. That would give her 12 of 18 from those districts plus a probable 7 of 10 pledged at-large/LEO delegates as well, for a 19-9 pledged delegate victory over Obama.

If Obama is able to keep Clinton under 58.5% in one of the three Congressional Districts, that would mean he would probably end up down 18-10 in the pledged delegate count after today for W.V.

According to the exit polls, Clinton is nowhere near the 75% of the vote she'd need in each Congressional District to pull off a 5-1 split in the three districts each.

If somehow Obama were to hold Clinton to a 58% -- 40% type of victory, and Clinton could not clear 58.5% in each of the three Congressional Districts, then you would see a damaging 9-9 split among pledged delegates from the districts, and with only a probable 6-4 split of the pledged at-large/LEO delegates, that would only yield a 15-13 pledged delegate result for the Clinton campaign.

UPDATE: CLINTON IS BEING CREDITED WITH A 67% - 26% VICTORY OVER OBAMA, A 51% MARGIN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS BREAKSDOWN IN TERMS OF DELEGATES.

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