There have been two magic numbers associated with the Democratic Primary for awhile, specifically since the DNC acted to strip Michigan and Florida of ALL their delegates--pledged, add-on and automatic.
The first "magic number" is 2025, and the second is 1627.
2025
The first magic number, 2025, was designated as such in reference to the 4,048 total delegates available for gain (3253 pledged + 719 automatic + 76 add-on)
While the number of pledged and add-on delegates remains fixed by the DNC, the number of automatic delegates can shift slightly as a result of elected officials losing office or dying, or by party loyalists moving from their state in which they were given superdelegate status. The number of automatic delegates has moved up and down since the beginning of the primary season. With the most recent elections of Cazayoux in Louisiana and Childers in Mississippi, the new number of automatic delegates is now 721, which increased the number of Total Delegates to 4050, which in turn increases the "magic number" to 2025.5.
Given that the Democrats Abroad delegates are worth a half-delegate each, it is possible to end up with 2025.5 precisely.
If, as expected, Democrat Donna Edwards wins the contest for Maryland's 4th Congressional District seat left vacant by Albert Wynn on June 19th, then the number of Total Delegates will become 4051 and the new "magic number" will become 2026.
1627
As a result of the Michigan/Florida loss of all delegates, the total and unchanging number of pledged delegates available in this contest is 3253. 1627 represents a majority of those pledged delegates, and is recognized as the metric by which a winner of the pledged delegate count can be named.
This number is important because many automatic delegates have sought to link their support for a candidate to the "will of the people" argument associated with the pledged delegate count earned throughout the elections in each state, territory and special jurisdiction.
Obama currently has 1610 pledged delegates, including the eight Edwards' delegates (6 from S.C., 1 from Iowa, 1 from N.H) that have vowed to switch allegiances and the lone Clinton delegate from Maryland who has said he will switch to Obama as well. The Obama Campaign claims this total of 1610 as well.
By my count, Obama is only 17 pledged delegates away from gaining this magic number. There are 103 pledged delegates at stake on May 20th, so that is the date on which he will cross that threshold and possibly trigger superdelegates moving to him based on this metric.
What about Michigan and Florida?
Let's assume Michigan and Florida were seated fully. This would change both magic numbers.
Florida had 210 total delegates--185 pledged, 22 automatic and 3 add-on
Michigan had 156 total delegates -- 128 pledged, 26 automatic and 2 add-on
The new number of Total Delegates would become 4416 after adding in the 366 total delegates from Michigan and Florida.
The new "magic number" to clinch the nomination would then become 2208.5.
The new number of Pledged Delegates would become 3566 after adding in the 313 pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida.
The new "magic number" to clinch the majority of pledged delegates would then become 1783.5.
1783.5 to Clinch the "new" Pledged Delegate Majority
From where things stand now, Obama would need to come up with 173.5 pledged delegates to capture the pledged delegate "magic number" and 206 total delegates to capture the "magic number" needed to win the nomination.
With 189 delegates left in the remaining contests, if Obama were to capture 90 of those 189 delegates--a conservative measure of 47.6%--then he would have 1700 total before counting Michigan and Florida, and he would need 83.5 pledged delegates of the 366 available from Michigan/Florida.
According to the actual invalidated votes in those states, Obama received zero pledged delegates in Michigan and 72 pledged delegates in Florida. This total would leave him needing 11.5 delegates from any compromise position regarding these states to give him his majority, if he only gained 90 of 189 from the remaining contests.
However, with the recent endorsement of Obama by Edwards, it is highly likely the the remainder of the 11 pledged delegates won by Edwards (3 from NH, 2 from SC and 6 from Iowa) would go to Obama.
Also, Edwards would be credited with 13 pledged delegates from Florida if that delegation was seated based on the primary vote. These 13 would also put Obama over the "magic number" needed to clinch this important metric.
2208.5 to "Clinch" the Nomination
Regarding the second "magic number" to clinch the nomination--2208.5--let's add up the delegates Obama should be able to get and then see how the remaining automatic delegates need to break in order to give him the nomination.
Obama is at 1902.5 total delegates, leaving him 306 total delegates short of the nomination by this new metric.
Let's add the following:
- 90 pledged delegates from the remaining states
- 24 pledged Edwards delegates from New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Florida
- 3 automatic delegates already gained from Michigan
- 3 automatic delegates already gained from Florida
- 1 add-on delegate already gained from Florida
- 72 pledged delegates already gained from Florida
- 30 expected add-on delegates from states in which Obama was victorious
This gives Obama another 223 total delegates to add to his current total, bringing him up to 2125.5. This leaves him 83 total delegates short of the new metric, meaning that of the remaining 209 automatic delegates and 5 add-on delegates. 83 of 214 would constitute a 38.8% share of these delegates, in the worst case scenario.
The Reality
Keep in mind the proposal above does not include any gains of pledged delegates from the Michigan primary. This type of result is simply not a politically viable result for the Obama campaign.
There is a strong possibility, now that Edwards has endorsed Obama, that Obama can now fully claim the 55 pledged delegates for "Uncommitted" in Michigan, which then brings him 28 automatic delegates short of the finish line if Michigan and Florida are seated fully. That only represents 13% of the automatic delegates that would be left, and he may cross that line by the end of next week.
Somewhere in between 2025(.5) and 2208.5 will be the new finish line number, pending the results of the DNC meetings. The lower the number is, the more favorable the contest is for Senator Obama.
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