The Steady Stream of Superdelegate Declarations

I) The Steady Stream of Superdelegate Declarations

Given the very high probability that the scenario at the end of the above section will play out, Senator Clinton needs to keep the current number of undeclared superdelegates locked and not allow any more to declare for Senator Obama.

If Senator Clinton needs 208 of the remaining 241 superdelegates to support her in the end to win the nomination, then that means that Obama needs to only pick up between 34 more superdelegates (if Obama takes the Edwards delegates) and 52 superdelegates (if Clinton takes the Edwards delegates).

Furthermore, the more superdelegates declare their endorsements for Obama, the worse the math gets for Clinton on a psychological level as well. Let's say 20 more superdelegates announce their selections before the May 6th primaries in North Carolina and Indiana. And let's say that Clinton and Obama split these 20 superdelegates evenly. This would mean that Senator Clinton would then need 198 of the remaining 221 superdelegates at the end, which represents 89.6%!

What if 40 superdelegates announce in the next few weeks? And there is an even split again? Senator Clinton's new haul of superdelegates to win the nomination then becomes 93.5%!!

Every superdelegate that declares for Obama in the coming weeks forces Senator Clinton onto a more and more precarious path to the nomination. The pundits have declared that Senator Clinton would have to have the superdelegates give her the nomination, but as more and more superdelegates decide publicly, it may end up a situation where there are not enough superdelegates left to swing the nomination to Clinton.