The 74% share of superdelegates that Senator Clinton needs to secure the nomination (pending projections of delegate gains in the last nine contests) needs to be explored more thoroughly, because a large subset of the remaining superdelegate pool consists of what are known as add-on delegates
I wrote an extensive draft of an article on Slate.com's Trailhead blog about this issue (that got turned into an article) and followed up with an updated draft article to describe the impact of add-on delegates to the process.
In short, each state is awarded add-on delegates that act as superdelegates in declaring their support for a candidate. The number of add-on delegates ranges from one to five for each state, with only the largest states securing multiple add-on delegates. There are 76 add-on delegates awarded in the Democrat Primary.
These 76 add-on delegates are named throughout the nomination process by each state as a result of a state convention, a caucus convention, or other mechanism. So far 14 add-on delegates have been named, with the remaining 62 add-on delegates to be named between April 26 and June 21.
Of these 14 named delegates, eight have selected Obama, three have selected Clinton, and three remain undeclared at this point.
Since each state selects its add-on delegate in some fashion, and that fashion is typically dominated by the state party or by whichever candidate won the state during the primary, Senator Obama enjoys a large advantage in securing these add-on delegates because of the sheer number of states won and the dominance shown in winning those states.
Further hurting Senator Clinton are decisions like that of California to allocate their five add-on delegates on a 3-for-Clinton/2-for-Obama basis, instead of giving Clinton a clean sweep.
This means that of the pool of 306 remaining superdelegates from which Senator Clinton needs 74% support to overtake Senator Obama for the nomination, 65 of these superdelegates are add-on delegates that have either not declared (3) or have not yet been named by their respective states (62). These 65 add-on delegates compose 21% of the remaining superdelegates.
The problem for Senator Clinton is that these 65 add-on delegates will with certainty break for Senator Obama over the next two months as they are named. Even if you grant Senator Clinton a charitable 33-to-32 lead over Senator Obama for these last add-on delegates, Senator Clinton would then need 196 (227-33) of the remaining 241 (306-65) superdelegates to overtake Senator Obama for the nomination.
196 of 241 superdelegates represents an 81.3% share of these undeclared superdelegates. Clinton would need the remaining (non-add-on) superdelegates to break for her on a 4-to-1 basis for the nomination to be hers.
Keep in mind, however, that this scenario is charitable to Senator Clinton, in that she would receive 33 of the 65 undeclared/unnamed add-on delegates. Let's figure out how these add-on delegates should break down.
Demconwatch.blogspot.com has the gold standard of the breakdown of the add-on schedule, as well as a tracker that indicates if a named add-on has made a choice between Senator Obama and Senator Clinton. According to their analysis the following add-on delegates have yet to decide or have yet to be named:
UNDECIDED: Three total
Tennessee (2): Vicki Harwell and Jerry Lee
Missouri (1): Jay Nixon
UNNAMED: (Number) [Date Selected]: 62 total
Arizona (1) [4/26/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention.] RESULT: UNCOMMITTED
New Hampshire (1) [4/26/2008 -- Selected by open ballot, majority vote, by a committee of district-level delegates.] RESULT: CLINTON PICKUP
New Mexico (1) [4/26/2008 -- Selected by the State Party Central Committee] RESULT: UNCOMMITTED
Maryland (2) [5/1/2008 -- Selected at the State Democratic Central Committee meeting]
New York (4) [5/1/2008 -- Selected during the State Democratic Executive Committee]
Louisiana (1) [5/3/2008 -- Selected by the Democratic State Central Committee]
South Carolina (1) [5/3/2008 -- Elected during the State Convention]
Illinois (3) [5/5/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Utah (1) [5/9/2008 -- Elected by a quorum of district level delegates during the State Convention]
Massachusetts (2) [5/10/2008 -- Elected by the State Party Committee]
Ohio (2) [5/10/2008 -- Selected by the State Executive Committee]
Colorado (1) [5/17/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Kansas (1) [5/17/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Michigan (0/2) [5/17/2008 -- Selected by the State Central Committee.]
Nevada (1) [5/17/2008 -- Selected by the state convention as a whole]
California (5) [5/18/2008 -- Selected during the Delegation Meeting]
Alaska (1) [5/23/2008 -- Selected at the state convention]
Georgia (2) [5/24/2008 -- Selected during the State Committee Meeting]
Wyoming (1) [5/24/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Hawaii (1) [5/25/2008 -- Selected by the State Party Committee]
Mississippi (1) [5/31/2008 -- Selected by the State Convention]
Maine (1) [6/1/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Kentucky (1) [6/7/2008 -- Nominated by the Chair and selected during the State Convention]
Minnesota (2) [6/7/2008 -- Elected during the State Convention]
Pennsylvania (3) [6/7/2008 -- Selected by the Pennsylvania State Democratic Committee]
Texas (3) [6/7/2008 -- Elected at the state convention]
Vermont (1) [6/7/2008 -- Selected by a quorum of elected district level delegates]
Montana (1) [6/8/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Wisconsin (2) [6/13/2008 -- Just before the Convention meets, the Administrative Committee of the Wisconsin Democratic Party chooses these delegates]
Idaho (1) [6/14/2008 -- Nominated by State Chair and selected by State Convention Delegates]
Iowa (1) [6/14/2008 -- Selected at the state convention]
Virginia (2) [6/14/2008 -- Elected at the State Convention]
West Virginia (1) [6/14/2008 -- Selected by the State Democratic Executive Committee]
Washington (2) [6/15/2008 -- Nominated by the State Democratic Chair and selected during the State Convention]
Rhode Island (1) [6/19/2008 -- Selected by the State Committee]
Indiana (1) [6/21/2008 -- Selected by the district-level delegates at the State Convention]
North Carolina (2) [6/21/2008 -- Selected during the State Convention]
Oregon (1) [6/21/2008 -- Elected by the State Convention]
Puerto Rico (1) [6/21/2008 -- Selected during the Democratic Assembly]
South Dakota (1) [6/21/2008 -- Selected during the State Party Central Committee meeting]
Nebraska (1) [6/21/2008 -- Selected by the State Convention]
Now let's try to figure out how these add-on delegates will be chosen or expected to vote.
Obama States Won Outright / Expected to Win
Maryland (2) Louisiana (1) South Carolina (1) Illinois (3) Utah (1) Colorado (1)
Kansas (1) Alaska (1) Georgia (2) Wyoming (1) Hawaii (1) Mississippi (1) Maine (1)
Minnesota (2) Vermont (1) Montana (1) Wisconsin (2) Idaho (1) Iowa (1)
Virginia (2) Washington (2) North Carolina (2) Oregon (1) South Dakota (1)
Nebraska (1) California (2 of 5)
This is a total of 35 add-on delegates
Clinton States Won Outright / Expected to Win
Arizona (1) Ohio (2) California (3 of 5) Kentucky (1) West Virginia (1)
Rhode Island (1) Tennessee (2)
4/26 Update:
The Arizona add-on delegate has remained uncommitted.
This is a total of 11 add-on delegates
Toss Ups
California (5)
California State Chair Art Torres has already declared he will split the add-on delegates on a 3-for-Clinton, 2-for-Obama basis as a result of the vote proportion in the State. The delegates have been added above for each candidate in their calculations.
New Mexico (1)
New Mexico is a toss up because this state was narrowly won by Senator Clinton (51% - 49%). The add-on delegate is chosen by the State Party Central Committee. Governor Richardson's endorsement of Obama may outweigh the 2% victory for Senator Clinton because of his influence with his State Party.
Likely outcome: Obama
Massachussetts (2)
Massachussetts is a toss-up in my book because, although Clinton won this state handily in the primary (56% - 41%), the entire Democratic Party machine here is in the Obama camp (Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick). The State Party Committee selects the add-ons, and the composition of this State Party Committee needs analysis.
While Clinton should lead with newly elected memebers of the State Party Committee, it is likely Obama has support within the current framework as a result of the allegiances of the top Democrats in the state.
There is a good chance this allocation will be split among the two.
Likely outcome: 1 for Obama, 1 for Clinton
Indiana (1)
This state has not yet voted and current polls show a dead heat. The process by which the add-on delegate is chosen is described here -- in short, the add-on delegate is chosen by 47 district level delegates at the State Convention. I think Obama wins this state, and thus the add-on. This truly is a coin flip.
Prediction: Obama
Puerto Rico (1)
While many assume Clinton will win because of the majority Hispanic vote in Puerto Rico, this contest is a toss-up because of Obama's high level of support among key officials in the state as well as his early start in advertising. Furthermore, Puerto Ricans are not the same as Tejanos or other Latinos in the mainland United States, as they have a strong cultural identity with the island and strong views about their role in the United States.
Prediction: Clinton
New Hampshire (1)
New Hampshire is a toss-up in my book because, although Clinton took the state, the delegate breakdown was 9 for Clinton, 9 for Obama and 4 for Edwards. The add-on delegate is selected by an open ballot of a committee of district-level delegates. The Edwards delegates will play a major role here as they will swing the add-on delegate decision to one camp or another. I expect Obama to pick up this delegate when all is said and done.
Prediction: Obama
4/26 Update: New Hampshire has elected its add-on delegate, and it is Kathy Sullivan, who immediately endorsed Senator Clinton. Why was my analysis wrong? I was counting on there being more than one nominee for the position. Looks like this one was preordained by the State Party Chair, Raymond Buckley (according to demconwatch.blogspot.com).
Result: Clinton
New York (4)
Senator Clinton won her "home" state, but only by a 57-40 margin. In contrast, Senator Obama won Illinois by 31% (64% - 33%).
These four add-on delegates are elected at the State Convention on May 15th. Obama should be able to peel off one of these add-on delegates, and if lucky perhaps two, if his convention delegates are organized and disciplined. Expect the slate of add-on delegate nominees from the Obama Campaign to include just two names so that his convention delegates are unified.
Prediction: Clinton (3), Obama (1)
Nevada (1)
Like New Hampshire, this state was split in its decision in the caucuses.
The key here is the State Democratic Chair, Sam Lieberman. So far he is uncommitted as a superdelegate. Per State Party rules, the nominees for the add-on delegate to be selected at the State Convention are put forth by the State Chair. Per the rules:
The unpledged PLEO (one, 1) who does not have to declare as a candidate or
Presidential Preference, will be nominated by the State Chair to achieve
gender balance among the unpledged five (5) DNC members
Prediction: Obama
While Clinton won this state and while she will have more delegates at the State Convention, politics intervene here most likely. Don't forget that the most powerful Democrat in this state is Harry Reid, and he is pushing hard to force superdelegates to declare their choices and to bring an end to this nominating contest. I predict that Reid will work behind the scenes to encourage Lieberman to propose nominees for the add-on delegate slot that consist of outright or stealth Obama supporters. As the State Convention occurs after the critical May contests in North Carolina and Indiana, it is likely that this selection will be used to hasten the end for Senator Clinton.
Ohio (2)
Senator Clinton won this contest by 10 points, which brings into question whether or not she can take both add-on delegates. The selection of the add-ons is made by the State Executive Committee per the nomination of the State Chair, Chris Redfern. With Governor Strickland and three of the seven Congressmembers already backing Clinton, it is very likely that Clinton will have enough state institutional support to take down both add-ons.
Prediction: Clinton (2)
Texas (3)
Senator Clinton won the popular vote in the primary in Texas by a few points, while Senator Obama won the caucus portion of the primary and, as a result, more total delegates (99-to-94).
The Texas Delegate Selection Plan states that the nominees for these three add-on delegates (two per spot) will come from the Committee to Nominate At-Large Delegates of the State Convention. This Committee comprises 34 members -- one member elected by each Senatorial District Caucus and three members elected by the Permanent Convention Chair.
The Permanent Convention Chair is Boyd Richie, who currently is an uncommitted superdelegate.
The Senatorial District Caucus is a confusing term. If it refers to the caucuses held after the primary, then that means Senator Obama will be represented by all 31 Senatorial Districts, as he swept each for the caucus victory. If this is the case then Senator Obama will gain all three add-on delegates. I am seeking clarification on this process.
Prediction: Obama (3), unless a different definition of Senatorial District Caucus is being used.
Pennsylvania (3)
Senator Clinton won this state by 9 points, sweeping most of the state. The three add-on delegates here are selected by the State Democratic Committee. Obama could find a way to take one of the three add-on delegates if some form of proportional representation exists for the State Democratic Committee, but given Senator Clinton's stranglehold on the state's democratic infrastructure, from mayors to the Governor, it seems likely that this state will go totally Clinton.
Prediction: Clinton (3)
Predicted Results of the "Toss Up" contests
Obama: 9
Clinton: 10
Looking ahead at the 62 add-on delegates yet to be named plus the three already named, you can see from the above analysis that Senator Obama could earn up to 44 of the 65 add-on delegates yet to decide or to be named.
This total may be a bit conservative for Senator Clinton, yet it is her states in play that is causing this problem. The fact that she lost the add-on for Oklahoma, a state in which she beat Senator Obama by a wide margin, demonstrates Obama's strength in this process.
As a result, Senator Clinton would then need to win 208 (or 86.3%) of the remaining 241 uncommitted superdelegates to achieve her goal of the nomination as a result of the add-on delegate decisions.
With the New Hampshire result, the new number is 207 of 241 (85.9%)
With the Arizona result, the new number is 207 of 240 (86.3%)
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