Here you go...
The odds are bleaker and bleaker for Senator Clinton. Her only chance is to keep above a 65% clip on pledged delegate gains in both Oregon and Kentucky. That scenario will not happen tonight, perhaps not even in Kentucky unless she pulls off another victory like West Virginia.
If she only nets a handful of pledged delegates today, let's say five (Clinton 31-20 in Kentucky; Obama 29-23 in Oregon), she would need 50% of the remaining add-ons and 65% of the remaining pledged delegates in Puerto Rico/South Dakota/Montana just to stay mathematically alive with the superdelegates. That would require 56 of the last 86 pledged delegates available. Losing South Dakota and Montana would probably result in a 18-13 split for Obama, meaning she'd have to sweep somehow Puerto Rico by a 43-12 margin in delegates. Heck, you practically get 12 delegates just for showing up, in proporational allocations.
The focus now is on Obama securing 1627, and in a pinch, 1783.5 if Florida and Michigan are seated without sanction. Obama should come close to splitting the remaining pledged delegates from OR/KY/MT/SD/PR, meaning he would add 94 to his total of 1612, giving him 1706 pledged delegates and leaving him 77.5 pledged delegates shy of the new mark. He won 72 in Florida by himself, and adding a few of the Edwards delegates to his total would push him over the top without any extra work in Michigan to seat delegates in his favor there.
It's been said before, but it bears repeating. The delegate math is over for Senator Clinton.
The irony here is that her push for "making sure everyone votes" really has nothing to do with the "will of the people" in Kentucky and other states at this stage of the game--it has to do with seating the automatic delegates from Florida and Michigan and relying on the undeclared automatic delegates to push her near the nomination.
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