THE CLINTON MATRIX: POST KENTUCKY / OREGON
For the first time in the Clinton Matrix history, Senator Clinton's only chances at even the most extreme boundaries of pledged/add-on delegate distribution requires her to gain over 90% of the remaining undeclared automatic superdelegates.
Senator Clinton cannot win the nomination (as is) even if she receives 55% of both add-on and pledged delegates.
To put this all in context, let's examine Senator Clinton's most practical chance to get to 2025:
1st: Win 50% (or 20) of the 39 add-on delegates left. (Never mind that the remaining states favor Obama big time)
2nd: Win 65% (or 58) of the remaining 89 pledged delegates--which includes contests in South Dakota (Obama win) and Montana (Obama win) and the last few delegates from Oregon (Obama win).
3rd: Win 97.7% (or 166) of the remaining 170 undeclared automatic superdelegates, even though a large number of them are already Obama supporters waiting to declare.
This is not a realistic scenario by any means.
And let's not forget, as I and others have posted before:
Obama should finish with a projected 40-42 of the remaining 86 pledged delegates after Oregon is cleaned up. This puts him at 1686-1688 pledged delegates. Throw in the 67 he won in Florida along with the 13 from Edwards, and even without an allocation from Michigan, he will have 1766-1768 pledged delegates. Add in the nine remaining Edwards delegates and you get a total of 1775-1777 pledged delegates.
The new magic number for pledged delegate majority should Clinton get both Michigan and Florida seated exactly as they "voted" earlier would be [(3253 + 313) / (2)] = 1783. Obama would then need at most 8 more pledged delegates to gain this second "magic number". Any allocation out of Michigan will give Obama more than 8 pledged delegates, considering that "uncommitted" on the Michigan ballot would have gained 55 pledged delegates total.
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