Friday, June 6, 2008

Obama Faces Three Separate Tests This Weekend (add-on delegate news)

It's anticlimatic, but the actions of three state conventions held this weekend, especially in light of the Clinton concession, will provide yet another indicator of how the Democratic Party will unify.

12 add-on delegates are at stake this weekend from seven states. Seven of the add-ons come from three states that are emblematic of the challenges Senator Obama inherits from the primary race and now faces in the general election.

How these three states resolve their add-on delegate selections may provide a window into how the party unifies, especially since these three states provide a microcosm of the problems Obama has faced so far in the primary:

Kentucky: 1 add-on -- A 36% blowout for Clinton, albeit uncontested by Obama. Kentucky symbolizes the Appalachia weakness for Obama, and is a state that along with West Virginia may be hardest for Obama to gain traction. A pick-up of an add-on delegate here shows that the Kentucky state party, at least, is hoping to unify.

Pennsylvania: 3 add-ons -- Obama lost by 8.5 points, perhaps damaged most by the weeks of Reverend Wright controversy looped on the mainstream media news programs. Clinton also capitalized on a strong party machine run by Governor Ed Rendell and most of the superdelegation in the state. If Obama gains all three add-ons here, it means the state has committed to supporting him and the machinery will likely propel him to victory. The Democratic State Committee nominates from the floor and approves by majority these add-on delegates.

Texas: 3 add-ons -- Obama lost the Hispanic vote heavily, won the caucuses, and might have won the state as a whole were it not for Republican shenanigans via Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos. Helping Obama is the fact that the State Chair (and his superdelegate wife) are both Obama supporters now, and that he won all caucuses in the State. From the rulebook:
Nominations for Unpledged Add-on Delegates shall be presented to the convention
by the Committee to Nominate At-Large Delegates of the State Convention
(composed of 34 members, one member to be elected by each Senatorial District
Caucus and three members to be appointed by the Permanent Convention Chair...

Obama should win the add-on delegates from Minnesota (2), Vermont, Mississippi, and Montana with ease. How the other three states go will be more important from a political standpoint than a delegate standpoint.

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