The Two Magic Numbers: 1627 and 50

1627

One "magic" number has begun creeping into the zeitgeist of the superdelegates and politically-savvy public: 1627.

1627 signifies the point at which a candidate has gained a majority of the 3253 pledged delegates.

If you somehow add in the 128 pledged delegates from Michigan and the 185 pledged delegates from Florida, the new "magic" number becomes 1783.5, as the total number of pledged delegates becomes 3566. (Yes, you can win a half-pledged-delegate. See Guam or Delegates Abroad).

Obama would still reach this new "magic" number most likely once his Florida
pledged delegates and the "uncommitted" Michigan pledged delegates are added to his total, but the chance that the final compromise for these two states allows
for a full seating of the delegation as determined by the invalid elections in
January is almost none, as the Obama campaign needs to sign off on whatever deal is struck.

Obama currently has 1490 pledged delegates. He will need 137 more to break the "magic" number. He is on schedule to do so in Oregon on May 20th.

The 137 pledged delegates needed by Obama constitute only 33.6% of the remainder of pledged delegates. In contrast, Clinton would need to add 293 pledged delegates to her total of 1334 to achieve the same milesont. 293 pledged delegates signifies a 71.8% share of the pledged delegates remaining, an impossible task at this point. (The difference in percentages is caused by the 19 Edwards pledged delegates still outstanding.)

50

Obama currently has 1739 total delegates. He is expected to pick up, in the worst case scenario, 204 pledged delegates (50% of the remainder) and 32 add-on delegates (50% of the remainder, including New York). that puts him at 1975 total delegates.

The rest of his total will need to come from the superdelegates (Senators, Governors, Congressmembers, DNC loyalists and Distinguished Party Leaders). There are 214 of these Super Delegates left, which means that Obama most likely needs 23.4% of these Super Delegates to win the nomination.

Since the pledged delegate counts and the add-on delegate counts seem to have a logic of their own, and will most likely break in this split scenario (or even favor Obama by a handful), the second "magic" number is 50.

It may not be likely that 50 more superdelegates break for Obama any time soon, but the way things have gone this past week, it is possible that 50 more will announce for him by the time the May 20th primaries come about, which could possibly give Obama the "magic" number in both the superdelegate and the pledged delegate counts.