She was the Montana DNC Superdelegate who endorsed Obama but then had to retract her endorsement citing State Party rules that do not allow such endorsements during a contested primary.
Senator Obama is favored in the Montana contest. Once that contest goes official tomorrow night, it is expected that Campbell will finally be able to make her announcement publicly.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Chuck Todd Does It Again -- Excellent Analysis
This covers a lot of what I've posted today, but he does it so well.
39.5 Delegates to Go -- Who Will Put Obama Over the Top?
Assuming Obama gains 16 of the 31 pledged delegates available tomorrow in Montana and South Dakota, he willonly need 23.5 or 24 automatic delegates to decide for him before the polls close in both of these states to declare himself the victor of the Democratic Primary and the presumptive nominee later tomorrow night.
Where might those 24 automatic delegates be found?
Congressman Jim Clyburn will be one of the 24, so Obama will need 23.
17 could come from the US Senators currently undeclared for either candidate. According to this article, two of the undeclared Senators, Harkin and Salazar (note: Iowa and Colorado are major swing states that lean Obama) are trying to forge a coalition among the remaining undeclared Senators to announce at the same time for Senator Obama.
Another undeclared superdelegate, US Congressman Jason Altmire, confirms that Obama is working to secure enough superdelegates to come out tomorrow to push him over the top, also.
A previous report that a large chunk of California superdelegates currently committed to Clinton could switch to Obama at the end of the primary calendar also holds hope for Obama to gain the superdelegates necessary to declare victory, according to this May 5, 2008 LA Times article.
Finally, Chuck Todd at MSNBC's First Read reports that there may be a host of House Representative Superdelegates endorsing Obama en masse tomorrow as well, perhaps as many as 34.
Could it be a symbolic vote from a Party Elder like Al Gore?
Perhaps a current Democratic Leader like a Nancy Pelosi? Or Harry Reid? Or Howard Dean? Chuck Todd doesn't think so, but didn't Pelosi take her "pledge"? When will she act on that pledge?
What about a former President--Jimmy Carter? He's a member of the Pelosi Club as well.
Or could it be just the luck of the draw?
If the Obama campaign could script this perfectly, they would receive the endorsement of a working-class, white, middle-aged woman to put him over the top. How about Ohio Congresswoman Marcia Kaptur?
I like that one.
Where might those 24 automatic delegates be found?
Congressman Jim Clyburn will be one of the 24, so Obama will need 23.
17 could come from the US Senators currently undeclared for either candidate. According to this article, two of the undeclared Senators, Harkin and Salazar (note: Iowa and Colorado are major swing states that lean Obama) are trying to forge a coalition among the remaining undeclared Senators to announce at the same time for Senator Obama.
Another undeclared superdelegate, US Congressman Jason Altmire, confirms that Obama is working to secure enough superdelegates to come out tomorrow to push him over the top, also.
"Senator Obama is trying to line up people that are going to come out for him
tomorrow during the day so that he'll have enough that puts him over the top
that he can declare victory tomorrow," said Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire, one
of about 200 superdelegates under pressure to take a side in the contest."He apparently is telling people that he has the numbers, and that's what's going to
happen, at which point it would become moot what the rest of us do," said
Altmire, who added that he will wait until after the final votes and make a
decision by week's end.
A previous report that a large chunk of California superdelegates currently committed to Clinton could switch to Obama at the end of the primary calendar also holds hope for Obama to gain the superdelegates necessary to declare victory, according to this May 5, 2008 LA Times article.
Finally, Chuck Todd at MSNBC's First Read reports that there may be a host of House Representative Superdelegates endorsing Obama en masse tomorrow as well, perhaps as many as 34.
Buzz on the Capitol Hill suggests that has many as 34 of the undeclared superdelegates residing in the House will endorse Obama by Wednesday.
As many as 18 of these 34 -- many of them elected to Congress in the last four years -- will come out for Obama tomorrow so he can edge closer to his magic number
before the vote counting ends in South Dakota and Montana.The biggest Obama get in the House to date will come tomorrow when House Dem Caucus Chairman Jim Clyburn officially declares. No other member of the Dem leadership is expected to endorse Obama while Clinton is still running.
Finally, several superdelegates took the "Pelosi Pledge" to support the pledged delegate winner at the end of the primary season. There are six members of this club, including Maria Cantwell, a Washington Senator who is a Clinton backer currently, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, her daughter, and former President Jimmy Carter.
It will be interesting to see which superdelegate "officially" puts Obama over the top.
Could it be a symbolic vote from a Party Elder like Al Gore?
Perhaps a current Democratic Leader like a Nancy Pelosi? Or Harry Reid? Or Howard Dean? Chuck Todd doesn't think so, but didn't Pelosi take her "pledge"? When will she act on that pledge?
What about a former President--Jimmy Carter? He's a member of the Pelosi Club as well.
Or could it be just the luck of the draw?
If the Obama campaign could script this perfectly, they would receive the endorsement of a working-class, white, middle-aged woman to put him over the top. How about Ohio Congresswoman Marcia Kaptur?
I like that one.
A Washington State Super for Obama
David McDonald, a Washington DNC member, has announced his support for Senator Obama today.
Of interest is that McDonald was one of the 30-member DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee that decided the fate of Michigan and Florida this past Saturday. McDonald pledged to be neutral until after that decision was made.
Of interest is that McDonald was one of the 30-member DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee that decided the fate of Michigan and Florida this past Saturday. McDonald pledged to be neutral until after that decision was made.
The Curious Case of Kevin Rodriguez -- A Clinton Plant?
When Kevin Rodriguez (Virgin Islands) initially switched his superdelegate endorsement from Senator Clinton to Senator Obama, there was hardly an arched eyebrow, as the Virgin Islands handed Senator Clinton the worst defeat (89.9% - 7.6%) in the primary season and actually held her under the viability threshold of 15%, thus giving Obama all 3 of the Virgin Islands' pledged delegates.
Rodriguez' switch seemed to follow along with the three other Virgin Islands superdelegates that had endorsed Obama, including Carole Burke on the same day.
Then came word that Rodriguez had switched back suddenly to Senator Clinton's column. This development was met with suspicion and surprise, as Rodriguez had given not more than two weeks prior a glowing reason for his switch from Clinton to Obama.
The case for superdelegates switching their mind has already been made 14 times now--the trick is for Clinton to get those switches to be from Obama to her campaign.
Surprise, surprise.
The poster child that Senator Clinton is showing off as an 'example' of such a switch is the very Kevin Rodriguez whose double-switch left plenty of puzzled and skeptical friends and colleagues.
Kevin Rodriguez supported Clinton in March, after the Virgin Islands had already voted on February 9th by a near 90%-8% margin for Senator Obama. Rodriguez was not afraid then to stand against his constituents and colleagues in the Virgin Islands DNC and support Clinton over Obama.
Then we get into May, and Senator Clinton starts to realize that her only chance of victory is to start a superdelegate defection flood from Obama to her campaign.
Suddenly this stalwart supporter (and might we add, insulated from mainland politics and pressure and accountability) chooses to endorse Obama glowingly in May, and then two weeks later when Clinton desperately needs someone, anyone, to be her example of a superdelegate switching from Obama to Clinton...Rodriguez suddenly defects again!?
Rodriguez gets Class-A treatment from the Clinton campaign, is paraded along the campaign, flown around everywhere, and all he has to do is stand there as the lone example of a Obama defection.
When he was never an Obama supporter to begin with, but rather a Clinton supporter for all but two weeks of his time as a declared superdelegate?
This smells like a set-up.
And it is not beyond the Clintons to plant a loyal superdelegate into the Obama camp just to create a "defection" that they can then use as a Hail Mary representation of how superdelegates might switch from Obama to Clinton after the primary season is over.
This wouldn't be the first time the Clinton campaign has tried to "plant" someone to make them look better and drive the conversation, as this article and this article demonstrate.
Unfortunately for Clinton, this defection she is using for her example shows how desperate her position is, because Rodriguez carries zero credibility among the superdelegates as a whole, particularly among the elected officials already supporting Obama.
No elected official is going to pick Obama, and then defect to Clinton, and risk being alienated from the incoming Administration if Obama as the presumptive nominee is elected.
If Clinton could show off someone like a Joe Andrew, perhaps, who as a former DNC National Chairman and fervent commitment that might have some weight behind it.
But not someone like Rodriguez who clearly comes off as tainted and bought for his double-switcheroo.
Rodriguez' switch seemed to follow along with the three other Virgin Islands superdelegates that had endorsed Obama, including Carole Burke on the same day.
Then came word that Rodriguez had switched back suddenly to Senator Clinton's column. This development was met with suspicion and surprise, as Rodriguez had given not more than two weeks prior a glowing reason for his switch from Clinton to Obama.
When asked at the time why he switched back, Rodriguez could only offer the following, according to the Associated Press:While I have great respect for Senator Clinton, today I am announcing my support
for Barack Obama. Senator Obama has brought a new generation and energy
into the democratic process and the Democratic Party.He has shown he can connect with Democrats, Republicans and Independents across this country, whether we live on the mainland or an island. Senator Obama’s judgment to lead, courage to tell the truth and commitment to working men and women make him the best candidate to lead this country forward.
Rodriguez' switch triggered concern from the Virgin Islands DNC Chair Cecil Benjamin at the time, who offered his thoughts on why the double-switch might have occurred:"I decided to switch because that's my right," he told The Associated Press on
Wednesday. "I don't want to say why I decided. It's not about me ... It's about
America and what's best for America."
Now comes word that Senator Clinton is making an aggressive pitch that she will not only court undeclared superdelegates, but also superdelegates committed to Senator Obama. So far 13 superdelegates have switch from Clinton to Obama, while only one--Rodriguez--has switched from Obama to Clinton (although technically Rodriguez was a double-switch)."At this desperate crunch time, anything should be expected, especially when political persuasions, promises and offers are made," said Cecil Benjamin,
adding that he had no proof that Rodriquez was being pressured to change his
vote."I'm disappointed," he said. "I believe that we must stand by our convictions."
The case for superdelegates switching their mind has already been made 14 times now--the trick is for Clinton to get those switches to be from Obama to her campaign.
Surprise, surprise.
The poster child that Senator Clinton is showing off as an 'example' of such a switch is the very Kevin Rodriguez whose double-switch left plenty of puzzled and skeptical friends and colleagues.
I hate to be cynical, but let's get real.“One thing about superdelegates is they can change their minds,” Clinton told a gaggle of reporters in the aisle of the plane. “With us in the front of the cabin is a superdelegate who went from me to Sen. Obama and now is back with me, in the course of, you know, a matter of weeks.”
A campaign spokeswoman later informed the cabin that the superdelegate she was referring to is Kevin Rodriguez, a DNC member from the Virgin Islands, who was accompanying her on the flight from San Juan. The campaign had previously announced his support. “I think it’s only now that we’re finishing these contests that people are going to actually reflect on who is our stronger candidate. And I believe I am. And I’m going to make that case,” Clinton said.
Kevin Rodriguez supported Clinton in March, after the Virgin Islands had already voted on February 9th by a near 90%-8% margin for Senator Obama. Rodriguez was not afraid then to stand against his constituents and colleagues in the Virgin Islands DNC and support Clinton over Obama.
Then we get into May, and Senator Clinton starts to realize that her only chance of victory is to start a superdelegate defection flood from Obama to her campaign.
Suddenly this stalwart supporter (and might we add, insulated from mainland politics and pressure and accountability) chooses to endorse Obama glowingly in May, and then two weeks later when Clinton desperately needs someone, anyone, to be her example of a superdelegate switching from Obama to Clinton...Rodriguez suddenly defects again!?
Rodriguez gets Class-A treatment from the Clinton campaign, is paraded along the campaign, flown around everywhere, and all he has to do is stand there as the lone example of a Obama defection.
When he was never an Obama supporter to begin with, but rather a Clinton supporter for all but two weeks of his time as a declared superdelegate?
This smells like a set-up.
And it is not beyond the Clintons to plant a loyal superdelegate into the Obama camp just to create a "defection" that they can then use as a Hail Mary representation of how superdelegates might switch from Obama to Clinton after the primary season is over.
This wouldn't be the first time the Clinton campaign has tried to "plant" someone to make them look better and drive the conversation, as this article and this article demonstrate.
Unfortunately for Clinton, this defection she is using for her example shows how desperate her position is, because Rodriguez carries zero credibility among the superdelegates as a whole, particularly among the elected officials already supporting Obama.
No elected official is going to pick Obama, and then defect to Clinton, and risk being alienated from the incoming Administration if Obama as the presumptive nominee is elected.
If Clinton could show off someone like a Joe Andrew, perhaps, who as a former DNC National Chairman and fervent commitment that might have some weight behind it.
But not someone like Rodriguez who clearly comes off as tainted and bought for his double-switcheroo.
Automatic Superdelegates Not Enough for Clinton to Win
Lost among the mainstream media's analysis of the delegate counts is this simple fact:
Even after giving Senator Clinton a generous 16 of 31 pledged delegates from the remaining two contests (which means she'd have to tie Montana and win South Dakota somehow), she will have 1934 total delegates, leaving her 184 total delegates shy of the 2118 magic number.
There are only 166 automatic superdelegates remaining. These automatic delegates are the elected members of Congress, DNC loyalists and Party Distinguished Leaders that are rewarded with votes at the convention.
As you are sure to note, 166 is 18 less than 184, which Clinton needs for the nomination.
Without getting into the messy process of gaining defections from Senator Obama's superdelegate totals or peeling off hyper-loyal pledged delegates from Senator Obama, there are only two other pools of delegates available for Senator Clinton to find the remaining 18 delegates needed to get to 2118--assuming she (in a near-impossible scenario) somehow gains every single one of the 166 undeclared automatic delegates!!
The first pool is the add-on delegate pool. There currently are 35 add-on delegates that are unaligned: 30 unnamed (until the remaining state conventions are held) and 5 named but undeclared.
In this post I show that even of the 30 yet to be named, Senator Obama has a very good chance of gaining 20 of these add-on delegates. The chances of Senator Clinton going into Obama strongholds like North Carolina, Wisconsin, Iowa or even Nebraska and getting Obama's state delegates or Obama-friendly state chairs to give a Clinton supporter the add-on spot are slim to none.
Obama is guaranteed about 19 of these add-on delegates, and could walk away with 1-2 of the Texas add-on delegates, considering he won the state delegate fight.
So let's say Senator Clinton manages to gain 10 add-on delegates here. This scenario still leaves her 8 delegates short of the 2118 magic number.
Where to look? Two options remain.
First, there are five undeclared add-on delegates already named that need to decide. They are from Tennessee, Missouri, Nevada, Florida (2 x 0.5) and Arizona. Senator Clinton won Tennessee, Arizona and Florida, split Nevada and lost Missouri by a tiny margin. It is conceivable that she captures all five add-on delegates from this pool, so to be charitable we'll count these as eventual Clinton add-on delegates.
With these five in tow, Clinton is still short 3.5 total delegates from the nomination, even after getting every single automatic delegate and the most favorable add-on delegate split possible.
The last place to look? The Edwards' pledged delegate collection: the 8 pledged delegates amassed from Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina that have yet to declare a switch to either Obama or Clinton.
So far Obama has taken 16.5 of Edwards' 24.5 pledged delegates (Iowa-8, New Hampshire-4, South Carolina-8, Florida-6.5), and Clinton none. That leaves 8 left to be claimed, with Edwards already having endorsed Obama.
Senator Clinton would need to peel off 3 of these 8 Edwards' delegates in order to reach 2118, finally.
Conclusion:
Let's recap.
Clinton needs
Even after giving Senator Clinton a generous 16 of 31 pledged delegates from the remaining two contests (which means she'd have to tie Montana and win South Dakota somehow), she will have 1934 total delegates, leaving her 184 total delegates shy of the 2118 magic number.
There are only 166 automatic superdelegates remaining. These automatic delegates are the elected members of Congress, DNC loyalists and Party Distinguished Leaders that are rewarded with votes at the convention.
As you are sure to note, 166 is 18 less than 184, which Clinton needs for the nomination.
Without getting into the messy process of gaining defections from Senator Obama's superdelegate totals or peeling off hyper-loyal pledged delegates from Senator Obama, there are only two other pools of delegates available for Senator Clinton to find the remaining 18 delegates needed to get to 2118--assuming she (in a near-impossible scenario) somehow gains every single one of the 166 undeclared automatic delegates!!
The first pool is the add-on delegate pool. There currently are 35 add-on delegates that are unaligned: 30 unnamed (until the remaining state conventions are held) and 5 named but undeclared.
In this post I show that even of the 30 yet to be named, Senator Obama has a very good chance of gaining 20 of these add-on delegates. The chances of Senator Clinton going into Obama strongholds like North Carolina, Wisconsin, Iowa or even Nebraska and getting Obama's state delegates or Obama-friendly state chairs to give a Clinton supporter the add-on spot are slim to none.
Obama is guaranteed about 19 of these add-on delegates, and could walk away with 1-2 of the Texas add-on delegates, considering he won the state delegate fight.
So let's say Senator Clinton manages to gain 10 add-on delegates here. This scenario still leaves her 8 delegates short of the 2118 magic number.
Where to look? Two options remain.
First, there are five undeclared add-on delegates already named that need to decide. They are from Tennessee, Missouri, Nevada, Florida (2 x 0.5) and Arizona. Senator Clinton won Tennessee, Arizona and Florida, split Nevada and lost Missouri by a tiny margin. It is conceivable that she captures all five add-on delegates from this pool, so to be charitable we'll count these as eventual Clinton add-on delegates.
With these five in tow, Clinton is still short 3.5 total delegates from the nomination, even after getting every single automatic delegate and the most favorable add-on delegate split possible.
The last place to look? The Edwards' pledged delegate collection: the 8 pledged delegates amassed from Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina that have yet to declare a switch to either Obama or Clinton.
So far Obama has taken 16.5 of Edwards' 24.5 pledged delegates (Iowa-8, New Hampshire-4, South Carolina-8, Florida-6.5), and Clinton none. That leaves 8 left to be claimed, with Edwards already having endorsed Obama.
Senator Clinton would need to peel off 3 of these 8 Edwards' delegates in order to reach 2118, finally.
Conclusion:
Let's recap.
Clinton needs
- Every single undeclared automatic delegate (including Pelosi, Reed, Clyburn, etc.)
- Every single add-on delegate possible (15 of 35)
- 3 of 8 Edwards delegates
- no more defections from her superdelegate or pledged delegate total
Mathematically, she is still alive. Mathematically.
How much would you be willing to be that Clinton won't be the nominee?
The Future and Impact of the Remaining Add-On Delegates
As of today, there are officially 78.5 add-on superdelegates who will be voting at the Democratic National Convention.
Florida (3) and Michigan (2) had five add-on delegates between them, but as a result of the Rules and Bylaws Committee action on Saturday, these add-on delegates are halved as are the pledged and automatic delegates for each of these sanctioned states.
The 2.5 add-on delegates from Florida and Michigan combined add to the previous total of 76 for the other states (and DC and Puerto Rico), making the official number of add-on delegates 78.5.
So far 48.5 of these add-on delegates have been named, with 26.5 selecting Senator Obama, 17 selecting Senator Clinton, and 5 remaining undeclared (Tennessee, Florida--2*0.5, Arizona, Nevada and Missouri).
There remain 30 add-on delegates that have yet to be named, and thus yet to declare.
Of these add-on delegates, the only ones that are pre-committed to a candidate are the two half-delegates for Michigan, which will be guaranteed to Senator Obama once Michigan holds its state convention.
These 30 come from the following states, sorted by winner in the primary season (one per state, unless otherwise denoted):
OBAMA
Minnesota (2)
Vermont
Mississippi
Wisconsin (2)
Idaho
Iowa
Michigan (2 0.5 delegates) --by RBC decision
Virginia (2)
Washington (2)
North Carolina (2)
Oregon
Nebraska
CLINTON
Kentucky
Pennsylvania (3)
West Virginia
Rhode Island
Indiana
Puerto Rico
SPLIT
Texas (3)
TBD
Montana
South Dakota
If add-on delegates go to form (i.e. to the victor of the state), Senator Obama will pick up 19 (if Montana and South Dakota go as expected), Senator Clinton will gain 8, and they will split the 3 from Texas in some manner.
Keep in mind the State Chair (and his DNC superdelegate wife) both announced for Obama recently.
Let's say Obama gains 20 from these remaining add-on delegates (which is a pretty safe bet).
Add these 20 to the 16 pledged delegates he is expected to gain from South Dakota/Montana, plus the remaining 8 Edwards delegates, and you have 44 total delegates for Obama, which exceeds the number (41.5) of total delegates he needs to clinch the nomination.
It will be interesting to see how these add-on delegates are selected after a decision is made by the Clinton Campaign after tomorrow. If she drops out, it is likely that the add-on delegates will become ceremonious in nature and may be picked for Obama as an olive branch.
As we've discussed from the beginning on this site, the add-on delegates were always a separate contest from the automatic superdelegates, and should always have been treated as such. At this point, the only way Senator Clinton can possibly win the nomination is to win defections from Obama's superdelegate ranks, or to steal add-on delegates from him in states in which he won heavily.
She cannot win the nomination by the remaining automatic delegates remaining, alone.
Florida (3) and Michigan (2) had five add-on delegates between them, but as a result of the Rules and Bylaws Committee action on Saturday, these add-on delegates are halved as are the pledged and automatic delegates for each of these sanctioned states.
The 2.5 add-on delegates from Florida and Michigan combined add to the previous total of 76 for the other states (and DC and Puerto Rico), making the official number of add-on delegates 78.5.
So far 48.5 of these add-on delegates have been named, with 26.5 selecting Senator Obama, 17 selecting Senator Clinton, and 5 remaining undeclared (Tennessee, Florida--2*0.5, Arizona, Nevada and Missouri).
There remain 30 add-on delegates that have yet to be named, and thus yet to declare.
Of these add-on delegates, the only ones that are pre-committed to a candidate are the two half-delegates for Michigan, which will be guaranteed to Senator Obama once Michigan holds its state convention.
These 30 come from the following states, sorted by winner in the primary season (one per state, unless otherwise denoted):
OBAMA
Minnesota (2)
Vermont
Mississippi
Wisconsin (2)
Idaho
Iowa
Michigan (2 0.5 delegates) --by RBC decision
Virginia (2)
Washington (2)
North Carolina (2)
Oregon
Nebraska
CLINTON
Kentucky
Pennsylvania (3)
West Virginia
Rhode Island
Indiana
Puerto Rico
SPLIT
Texas (3)
TBD
Montana
South Dakota
If add-on delegates go to form (i.e. to the victor of the state), Senator Obama will pick up 19 (if Montana and South Dakota go as expected), Senator Clinton will gain 8, and they will split the 3 from Texas in some manner.
Keep in mind the State Chair (and his DNC superdelegate wife) both announced for Obama recently.
Let's say Obama gains 20 from these remaining add-on delegates (which is a pretty safe bet).
Add these 20 to the 16 pledged delegates he is expected to gain from South Dakota/Montana, plus the remaining 8 Edwards delegates, and you have 44 total delegates for Obama, which exceeds the number (41.5) of total delegates he needs to clinch the nomination.
It will be interesting to see how these add-on delegates are selected after a decision is made by the Clinton Campaign after tomorrow. If she drops out, it is likely that the add-on delegates will become ceremonious in nature and may be picked for Obama as an olive branch.
As we've discussed from the beginning on this site, the add-on delegates were always a separate contest from the automatic superdelegates, and should always have been treated as such. At this point, the only way Senator Clinton can possibly win the nomination is to win defections from Obama's superdelegate ranks, or to steal add-on delegates from him in states in which he won heavily.
She cannot win the nomination by the remaining automatic delegates remaining, alone.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)