39.5 Delegates to Go -- Who Will Put Obama Over the Top?

Assuming Obama gains 16 of the 31 pledged delegates available tomorrow in Montana and South Dakota, he willonly need 23.5 or 24 automatic delegates to decide for him before the polls close in both of these states to declare himself the victor of the Democratic Primary and the presumptive nominee later tomorrow night.



Where might those 24 automatic delegates be found?



Congressman Jim Clyburn will be one of the 24, so Obama will need 23.



17 could come from the US Senators currently undeclared for either candidate. According to this article, two of the undeclared Senators, Harkin and Salazar (note: Iowa and Colorado are major swing states that lean Obama) are trying to forge a coalition among the remaining undeclared Senators to announce at the same time for Senator Obama.



Another undeclared superdelegate, US Congressman Jason Altmire, confirms that Obama is working to secure enough superdelegates to come out tomorrow to push him over the top, also.

"Senator Obama is trying to line up people that are going to come out for him
tomorrow during the day so that he'll have enough that puts him over the top
that he can declare victory tomorrow," said Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire, one
of about 200 superdelegates under pressure to take a side in the contest.

"He apparently is telling people that he has the numbers, and that's what's going to
happen, at which point it would become moot what the rest of us do," said
Altmire, who added that he will wait until after the final votes and make a
decision by week's end.

A previous report that a large chunk of California superdelegates currently committed to Clinton could switch to Obama at the end of the primary calendar also holds hope for Obama to gain the superdelegates necessary to declare victory, according to this May 5, 2008 LA Times article.

Finally, Chuck Todd at MSNBC's First Read reports that there may be a host of House Representative Superdelegates endorsing Obama en masse tomorrow as well, perhaps as many as 34.

Buzz on the Capitol Hill suggests that has many as 34 of the undeclared superdelegates residing in the House will endorse Obama by Wednesday.

As many as 18 of these 34 -- many of them elected to Congress in the last four years -- will come out for Obama tomorrow so he can edge closer to his magic number
before the vote counting ends in South Dakota and Montana.

The biggest Obama get in the House to date will come tomorrow when House Dem Caucus Chairman Jim Clyburn officially declares. No other member of the Dem leadership is expected to endorse Obama while Clinton is still running.

Finally, several superdelegates took the "Pelosi Pledge" to support the pledged delegate winner at the end of the primary season. There are six members of this club, including Maria Cantwell, a Washington Senator who is a Clinton backer currently, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, her daughter, and former President Jimmy Carter.

It will be interesting to see which superdelegate "officially" puts Obama over the top.

Could it be a symbolic vote from a Party Elder like Al Gore?


Perhaps a current Democratic Leader like a Nancy Pelosi? Or Harry Reid? Or Howard Dean? Chuck Todd doesn't think so, but didn't Pelosi take her "pledge"? When will she act on that pledge?


What about a former President--Jimmy Carter? He's a member of the Pelosi Club as well.


Or could it be just the luck of the draw?


If the Obama campaign could script this perfectly, they would receive the endorsement of a working-class, white, middle-aged woman to put him over the top. How about Ohio Congresswoman Marcia Kaptur?


I like that one.