The Future and Impact of the Remaining Add-On Delegates

As of today, there are officially 78.5 add-on superdelegates who will be voting at the Democratic National Convention.

Florida (3) and Michigan (2) had five add-on delegates between them, but as a result of the Rules and Bylaws Committee action on Saturday, these add-on delegates are halved as are the pledged and automatic delegates for each of these sanctioned states.

The 2.5 add-on delegates from Florida and Michigan combined add to the previous total of 76 for the other states (and DC and Puerto Rico), making the official number of add-on delegates 78.5.

So far 48.5 of these add-on delegates have been named, with 26.5 selecting Senator Obama, 17 selecting Senator Clinton, and 5 remaining undeclared (Tennessee, Florida--2*0.5, Arizona, Nevada and Missouri).

There remain 30 add-on delegates that have yet to be named, and thus yet to declare.

Of these add-on delegates, the only ones that are pre-committed to a candidate are the two half-delegates for Michigan, which will be guaranteed to Senator Obama once Michigan holds its state convention.

These 30 come from the following states, sorted by winner in the primary season (one per state, unless otherwise denoted):

OBAMA

Minnesota (2)
Vermont
Mississippi
Wisconsin (2)
Idaho
Iowa
Michigan (2 0.5 delegates) --by RBC decision
Virginia (2)
Washington (2)
North Carolina (2)
Oregon
Nebraska

CLINTON

Kentucky
Pennsylvania (3)
West Virginia
Rhode Island
Indiana
Puerto Rico

SPLIT

Texas (3)

TBD

Montana
South Dakota


If add-on delegates go to form (i.e. to the victor of the state), Senator Obama will pick up 19 (if Montana and South Dakota go as expected), Senator Clinton will gain 8, and they will split the 3 from Texas in some manner.

Keep in mind the State Chair (and his DNC superdelegate wife) both announced for Obama recently.

Let's say Obama gains 20 from these remaining add-on delegates (which is a pretty safe bet).

Add these 20 to the 16 pledged delegates he is expected to gain from South Dakota/Montana, plus the remaining 8 Edwards delegates, and you have 44 total delegates for Obama, which exceeds the number (41.5) of total delegates he needs to clinch the nomination.

It will be interesting to see how these add-on delegates are selected after a decision is made by the Clinton Campaign after tomorrow. If she drops out, it is likely that the add-on delegates will become ceremonious in nature and may be picked for Obama as an olive branch.

As we've discussed from the beginning on this site, the add-on delegates were always a separate contest from the automatic superdelegates, and should always have been treated as such. At this point, the only way Senator Clinton can possibly win the nomination is to win defections from Obama's superdelegate ranks, or to steal add-on delegates from him in states in which he won heavily.

She cannot win the nomination by the remaining automatic delegates remaining, alone.