Wednesday, April 30, 2008

One More for Clinton, One More for Obama

Wow!

Another two superdelegates make their choices known today, according to First Read.

Senator Obama picked up the endorsement today of another member of Congress, this time California representative Lois Capps.

Senator Clinton also announced that a Puerto Rico superdelegate, Luisette Cabanas, committed today.

These two announcements bring the tally for the day to Obama 3, Clinton 2. Since last week's Pennsylvania Primary, Obama now leads 10-6 in superdelegate/add-on delegate declarations.

According to First Read, there are only 280 superdelegate remaining as undeclared. 64 of them are add-on delegates either undeclared or unnamed, meaning only 216 superdelegates remain.

Using the First Read numbers, Obama leads Clinton 1737 - 1602 in total delegates.

Assuming a split of the remaining pledged and add-on delegates (which is a charitable position for Senator Clinton), the totals for both would be Obama 1973 -- Clinton 1838.

With 216 superdelegates remaining, Obama would then need 24.1% (52/216) of the superdelegates, while Clinton would need 86.6% (187/216) of those same superdelegates.

It is clear that simply trading superdelegate endorsements with Obama is not going to improve Senator Clinton's position.

What is an interesting thought is that if enough superdelegates declare before the last primaries on June 3rd, there is a chance that the results of those primaries will put Senator Obama over the 2,025 magic number, and not superdelegate or add-on delegate decisions after the fact.

It's been an exciting last two days in the superdelegate race, and it will be interesting to see if this pace of announcements heats up even more over the next few days. This infusion of new endorsements will likely capture a portion of the political bandwidth as the Indiana/North Carolina races approach.

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