Thursday, May 1, 2008

Major Superdelegates News: Clinton Gains a Super (+1), Obama Gains a Defection (+2)

Today's superdelegate news (so far) has provided a new superdelegate and a surprise switch of a superdelegate from one candidate to the other.

In a similar fashion as yesterday's announcement of Pennsylvania AFL-CIO president Bill George (DNC Superdelegate) for Senator Clinton, today brings news that John Olsen, AFL-CIO President for Connecticut, has also backed Clinton.

This gain of a superdelegate for Clinton was quickly erased, and the day has become a net loss of a superdelegate for her, because of a major defection from the Clinton camp.

The Associated Press is reporting that former DNC Chair Joe Andrew, a superdelegate who supported Clinton on the day of her announcement to run for President, has switched to Obama.

This development has a quintuple impact on Clinton and the race:
  • First, a superdelegate switch is worth two superdelegates, in reality, as Obama gains one while Clinton loses one.
  • Second, the momentum of superdelegates continues to favor Obama, and pulling one from Clinton is no easy task. Since Pennsylvania, Clinton has added
  • Third, this superdelegate was a loyal fan of the Clintons and he owed his DNC Chairmanship to former President Bill Clinton, which demonstrates the difficulty that such a switch must have been and the urgency he must have felt.
  • Fourth, Andrew is a native of Indiana, and will campaign for Obama in Indianapolis.
  • And fifth, Andrew is speaking out against the narrative that a protracted race in the Democratic Primary is a good thing, and instead said that he is "convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party" and that "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain." This is the type of message that could resonate with superdelegates on the fence to support Obama "for the good of the party"--to that end, Andrew has sent a letter to each superdelegate explaining his decision.

Since the Pennsylvania Primary, Obama has picked up 11 superdelegates, while Clinton has picked up 6 superdelegates, lost one superdelegate and picked up an add-on delegate. This represents a net gain of 5 total delegates for Obama.

No comments: