Here's an update of the Clinton Matrix for this morning. I wanted to make a clarification in case you had a question. I stopped adding actual add-on delegates won prior to the 4 from New York announcing for Clinton. The metric on the Y-axis (add-on delegates earned from last 64 undeclared) includes the four for Clinton, the five currently undecided, and the 55 left to be named throughout the process.
Also, the add-on delegate schedule does not finish until the middle of June, which means that if the superdelegates wish to end the race prior to June 25th, they will need to add one more superdelegate to their number for every one add-on delegate that would have voted for the winner of the primary.
For example, if the superdelegates were to support a decision to move to Obama after the May 20th elections in Kentucky and Oregon, then that number would have to be 25 greater than at the end of the add-on process, to replace the likely 25 add-on delegates that would have gone to Obama in the intervening weeks.
The splitting of the last 64 add-ons and the last 408 pledged delegates is a scenario that is charitable to Senator Clinton, as she is expected to come up short about 5-10 pledged delegates and about 8-16 add-on delegates. Even under this optimistic scenario, she would still need 86.4% of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.
In the meantime, she needs 6 superdelegates for every 1 that Obama produces to keep her head above the 86.4% watermark. If she can't keep pace in superdelegates in the coming days and weeks, that percentage will increase and go into the 90s very quickly.
Enjoy
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