Thursday, May 1, 2008

Add-on Delegates to be Named Today: Maryland (2), New York (4)

Six more add-on delegates will be named today, with two at stake in Maryland and four in New York.

Previously I mentioned that these two states will be of interest to test different theories on how add-on delegates will break.

Clinton won New York by a sizable amount, but with four superdelegates in play can she sweep them all? Or can Obama steal one and cut the net gain from four to two?

Obama won Maryland by a large margin, but the State Democratic Party machine is pro-Clinton. Can Obama translate his performance in the state into a two-add-on-delegate sweep? Or will the State Party decide to split the add-on delegates between the two candidates?

Of course, it is very likely as well that not all the add-on delegates named today will make an immediate endorsement, if there is a need for compromise among the candidates' supporters. We saw this happen in Arizona.

Prediction:

New York: Clinton 3, Obama 0, undeclared 1

Maryland: Obama 1, undeclared 1

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