Obama Will Gain Five Montana Superdelegates after the Polls Close

Montana has a large pack of superdelegates waiting to endorse Senator Obama once the polls close tonight:

• Governor Brian Schweitzer
• Senator Max Baucus
• Senator Jon Tester
• State Party Chair Dennis McDonald
• State Party Vicechair Margaret Campbell

As I wrote earlier, Campbell was known earlier to want to support Obama, but had to back off per Montana State Party rules not allowing an endorsement during a contested election.

Florida Super Glasser for Obama

I must have missed this one earlier. Florida superdelegate Diane Glasser has endorsed Senator Obama and adds 0.5 delegates to his count.

Two More Supers for Obama Later Today

According to Ben Smith's blog, two more superdelegates are announcing for Senator Obama:

• California congressman Sam Farr
• Maryland DNC member Bel Leong-Hong

It sounds like Farr is announcing tonight, while Hong has already announced.

I swear these new announcements went up as I was hitting the "publish" key just now.

Obama is now 12 delegates away from going over the 2118 mark. Expect the superdelegate flood to calm down for now so that Obama can gain the symbolic victory of the South Dakota and Montana elections putting him over the top. I am assuming the Obama campaign can embargo these announcements until tomorrow at this point.

It will be interesting to see which superdelegate announcement was the magic one. I'll go back and look at the announcement times.

Today's Delegate Roundup: Obama + 21, Clinton -2.5

I'm trying to catch up here, so I'll just put the notes on the superdelegates who have declared so far today here, including the two previous ones (Dawson and Ausman) about whom I wrote just earlier. I already counted Rep. Jim Clyburn in yesterday's news after word spread of his decision to endorse Obama today.

As of 3:20 pm PST:

Clinton: - 2.5 (+ 0.5 minus three defections to Obama)

Obama: +21 (20 superdelegate votes + 1 Edwards pledged delegate)

Obama is 14 delegates away from the nomination, which is in the range of expected gains from Montana and South Dakota today.


Clinton Superdelegates: +0.5

Jon Ausman (FL)
-- DNC Superdelegate and member of the Rules & Bylaws Committee who supports Clinton because Obama already is the winner, so he has the luxury of sending out a "message of unity" to implore an Obama-Clinton ticket.

Obama Superdelegates: +21

Ex-President Jimmy Carter (GA)

-- The Distinguished Party Leader finally made his decision known after months of speculation and signs that he would support Obama.

Congressman John Spratt (SC)

-- He joined with Congressman Clyburn in endorsing Senator Obama today.

Ralph Dawson (NY)

--A member of the DNC who is the last member of the New York superdelegate pool to endorse, save for Party Leader George Mitchell.

Debra S. Kozikowski (MA)

--A member of the Massachussetts DNC, she made her decision known today. Her press statement:

I made a commitment to wait until the end of the primary process and now it is
time to make my choice. Barack Obama has won my support for President. Hillary Clinton ran a great race, I respect her hard work and commitment to the issues I care about, but Senator Obama's message of bringing our country together is in sync with the agenda of building rural-urban partnerships for the good of all of America.

I care about issues facing rural families and businesses, everything from our food supply to the challenges of economic development, and Barack Obama is committed to ensuring that rural residents aren't left behind. All you have to do is compare the websites of John McCain and Barack Obama to see who is the candidate with real ideas to help rural communities. I am committed to delivering Barack Obama’s message of hope and change to voters all across the country and working to convince my fellow superdelegates who have yet to support a candidate to join me in
supporting him.

Congressman John Olver (MA)

--This Massachussetts member of Congress made his decision today after holding out for a long time as a result of his district's split vote for both candidates. An excerpt from the article:

"I think he gave more of a vision where he wanted to go," Olver said, in explaining his ultimate decision to back Obama over U.S. Sen. Hillary R. Clinton, D-N.Y. "Hillary was all about competence and experience," Olver said, but added that he was critical of her vote to allow the U.S. invasion into Iraq and that her experience was largely due to her role as First Lady and not through executive experience.

Joyce Beatty (OH)

--This DNC member from Columbus and Minority Leader of the Ohio state legislature threw her support to Obama today as well, citing her conversation with the Illinois Senator:

"I have spoken to Sen. Obama several times about his ideas for moving our nation past the failed policies of the Bush administration. I like Sen. Obama's stances on issues important to all Americans, and I am proud that an African-American has the trust and the support of people across all cross-sections of our society in this historic campaign. He has brought energy and an excitement to this race that inspires people, and he is the right person for the job."

Jennifer Dechant (ME)

--Citing the support for Obama from the majority of the Maine state convention delegates, Dechant also announced her decision to support Senator Obama.


Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO)

From her statement today:

"This is a year that the mere existence of a single candidate, Barack Obama, has inspired people in my district to believe in the greater good."

Carnelia Pettis-Fondren (MS)

--The Vice Chairwoman for the Mississippi DNC has announced her support for Obama today.

Per the article:

Fondren, an attorney, said Obama is "an equally impressive presidential candidate" and "a dynamic leader who offers a compelling vision for the future of our nation and the state of Mississippi."

"The people of our country have spoken and shown they support Sen. Obama - now it's time for party leaders to unite behind one candidate and head toward victory in November," Fondren said.

John Perez (CA)

--This member of the California DNC and Los Angeles-based labor leader made his decision to support Obama on his belief that Obama would be "the best positioned to lead this party forward."

Of interest is that Perez' cousin is Los Angeles City Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who was an early and prolific supporter of the Clinton campaign.

Congressman Dennis Moore (KS)

--The Kansas Congressman announced his support for Obama today.

The Delaware Three

Harriet Windsor

“As a superdelegate from Delaware, I am representing the people of my state, where Barack Obama won in our primary. Senator Obama is an outstanding candidate who will unify the Democratic Party and be a strong candidate to beat Senator McCain in the November election."

Rhett Ruggiero

--A Delaware DNC superdelegate

John Daniello

--The Delaware Democratic Party Chairman released the following:

“Senator Obama has inspired Democrats across the country over the course of this
primary, and we saw here in Delaware that his appeal will help our candidates up
and down the ballot. As a state party chairman, I know how valuable this contest
has been in energizing the grassroots, and I wanted every state to be able to
participate and reap the benefits of this historic race. Now that all of the
primaries and caucuses are behind us, I believe it’s time for Democrats to unite
in taking on John McCain, and I’m pleased to be joined by Rhett Ruggerio and
Secretary Windsor in endorsing Barack Obama for president.”

The Michigan Five plus One

Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
--Chairwoman of the Black Congressional Caucus

"From his years fighting for the poor on the South Side of Chicago to his proven
commitment to working families in the United States Senate, Barack has proven he
can lift up our nation and put the needs of our families and children first. We
need change in our country today, and we need a leader who will end the war in
Iraq and end the eight years of the failed policies of George W. Bush."

Kwame Kilpatrick
--Mayor of Detroit and DNC superdelegate

"I enthusiastically pledge my support to Senator Barack Obama, who will bring much needed hope, change and leadership to take our country in a new direction. I will work hard to ensure he will be victorious in November.”

Debbie Dingel
--DNC Superdelegate

"Now, as the nominating process comes to an end, it it time to unite behind
Barack Obama, who will be our Democratic nominee for the White House."

Rick Wiener
--DNC Superdelegate

"It is clear that Senator Obama will prevail as our nominee. It is time to unite
the party behind our candidate and close a historic primary season.”

Joyce Lalonde
--DNC Superdelegate

"With his leadership, we will move away from a nation of test bubblers to a nation of highly educated individuals that will return us to global leadership in all areas. I am excited to begin the campaign that brings America to the best that it can be."

Tina Abbott
--State DNC Vicechairwoman and Secretary-Treasurer of state AFL-CIO

Edwards' Delegate Switches

Sharon Nordgren (NH)

--State Representative Nordgren announced today her switch from Edwards to Obama. Nordgren is a pledged delegate and ups Obama's total from the Granite State.

A full list of the Edwards switches to Obama was released earlier today by the Obama campaign:

FLORIDA -- 10
Joseph Beuttenmuller, Lake Mary
Barry Birdwell, Melbourne Beach
E. Alan Brock, Crawfordville
Deborah Courtney, Jacksonville
Rita Ferrandino, Sarasota
Fred McDowell, Leesburg
Mary Mooney, Crawfordville
Linda Spisak, Hobe Sound
Gregory Shimkaveg, Oviedo
Bill Vincent, Gulf Breeze

IOWA -- 4
Machelle Crum, Newton
Arlene Prather-Kane, Cedar Falls
David Relawsk, Iowa City
Merci Wolff, Sioux City

SOUTH CAROLINA -- 8
Lauren Bilton, Columbia
Daniel Boan, Kershaw
Christine Brennan-Bond, Moore
Michael Evatt, Seneca (birthplace of Senator Edwards)
Robert Groce, Summerville
Marilyn Hemingway, Georgetown
Tim Moore, Barnwell
Susan Smith, Pawley’s Island

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 4
Deborah Bacon-Nelson, Hanover
Senator Peter Burling, Cornish
Rep. Sharon Nordgren, Hanover
Joshua Denton, Portsmouth

This makes a total of 26 pledged delegates worth 21 pledged delegate votes at the Convention (Florida pledged delegates are worth 0.5 votes) that have switched from Edwards to Obama.

These 21 pledged delegates represent a net gain for Obama (via switch) larger than most primaries afforded--more on this to come in a separate post.

Clinton Defections to Obama

Congresswoman Maxine Waters (CA)

--The California Congresswoman was a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton, but made her decision today to switch to Obama.

“Senator Hillary Clinton has run a superb campaign and has proven to be a hard worker while gaining the support of many key constituencies that will be essential for Democratic success in November. Despite that, Senator Obama’s delegate numbers more than describe the enthusiasm for his candidacy and I believe that by the end of the day, he will have the necessary numbers to become the Democratic Party nominee for President."

“It is now time to close ranks and time for all remaining delegates to put their support behind the presumptive nominee, Senator Obama. Senator Obama has run an effective campaign and has overcome many obstacles to create an energy that has brought many new Democrats into the party. Together, both of these candidates have generated an unprecedented involvement in Democratic Party politics. This is something that all Democrats can be proud of."

Kamil Hasan (CA)

--The California DNC superdelegate made the announcement of the switch from Clinton to Obama in the following press release:

"I am endorsing Senator Obama as Democratic Party’s nominee not only because he
has clearly won more pledged delegates, but I sincerely believe that he can provide the necessary leadership in taking this country in a new direction at this critical juncture in our history. Fortunately, we have had two excellent candidates. I have great admiration for Senator Clinton and the way she has run a spirited, high energy, issues based campaign.

I am looking forward to continue to energize the Indo-American and the South-Asian communities in ensuring that Senator Obama becomes the next President of the United States. His election as the President of the United States will not only help unite a very divided nation, but elevate the image of the United States in the world to a level not seen since John Kennedy was the President."

Ben Johnson (DC)

--A District of Columbia superdelegate finally makes his switch known today:

"It’s time to close ranks behind Barack Obama, who has run an outstanding campaign and made many of us proud. This is no way diminishes my respect and
admiration for Senator Clinton, who is a fine public servant who I have known for many years. But it is clear that Senator Obama has the momentum needed to help us win in November and I am proud to endorse him today."

Senator Clinton gains a Florida Super

More from Ben Smith:

In a strange move, Florida superdelegate Jon Ausman, who played a key role in forging the Florida and Michigan compromises in last weekend's Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting that spurned Clinton's demands, declared his support for Clinton.

Not because he feels Clinton is the best candidate, mind you. No, Ausman decided to endorse Clinton because he wants to "send a message that he [Obama] needs to unify our party." Huh?

Ausman didn't make this choice while he felt his endorsement could make an impact, however. Instead, he waited until he heard that Obama had enough votes to put him over the top, so that such a move would be purely symbolic.

Interesting. Score 0.5 delegates for Clinton, but it sounds like Ausman will vote for Obama at the Convention, so I'm not sure exactly how you score this one!

Obama Breaks Clinton Stanglehold on NY Supers

On the day when he is expected to win the Democratic Nomination, Senator Obama gained a major symbolic endorsement from a New York superdelegate, Ralph Dawson.

Dawson had been the subject of speculation earlier in the campaign based on his desire to remain uncommitted despite having been reported to have given $1000 to the Obama campaign, and an undisclosed amount to the Clinton campaign as well.

Of the 46 automatic superdelegates and 3 add-on delegates from Senator Clinton's base of power, New York, all but 3 have endorsed their home Senator. Dawson becomes the second Obama supporter from this huge group, with only Party Leader George Mitchell remaining on the sidelines.

Compare this total to the 31 total (28 automatic, 3 add-on) superdelegates from Illinois, of which 28 have endorsed Obama, none for Clinton, and three undeclared still.

Just a side note to a long campaign in which each candidate had his or her own base of power--in this case Illinois proved more monolithic and stronger than New York, despite previous conventional wisdom.

Excellent Article about Clinton, Obama Primary Strategies

Reprinted in full:

Obama Advantage Grew From Long-Term Plan
While Clinton Hinged Strategy On Early Knockout, Obama Sought Delegates All Through Process

(AP) Unlike Hillary Rodham Clinton, rival Barack Obama planned for the long haul. Clinton hinged her whole campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama's staff researched congressional districts in states with primaries that were months away.

What they found were opportunities to win delegates, even in states they would eventually lose.

Obama's campaign mastered some of the most arcane rules in politics, and then used them to foil a front-runner who seemed to have every advantage - money, fame and a husband who had essentially run the Democratic Party for eight years as president.

"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."

Careful planning is one reason why Obama is emerging as the nominee as the Democratic Party prepares for its final three primaries, Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Attributing his success only to soaring speeches and prodigious fundraising ignores a critical part of contest. Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried.

Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries. In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake.

Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey. The research effort was headed by Jeffrey Berman, Obama's press-shy national director of delegate operations. Berman, who also tracked delegates in former Rep. Dick Gephardt's presidential bids, spent the better part of 2007 analyzing delegate opportunities for Obama. "The whole Clinton campaign thought this would be like previous campaigns, a battle of momentum," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "They thought she would be the only one would who could compete in such a momentous event as Super Tuesday."

Instead, Obama won a majority of the 23 Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5 and then spent the following two weeks racking up 11 straight victories, building an insurmountable lead among delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

What made it especially hard for Clinton to catch up was that Obama understood and took advantage of a nominating system that emerged from the 1970s and '80s, when the party struggled to find a balance between party insiders and its rank-and-file voters. Until the 1970s, the nominating process was controlled by party leaders, with ordinary citizens having little say. There were primaries and caucuses, but the delegates were often chosen behind closed doors, sometimes a full year before the national convention. That culminated in a 1968 national convention that didn't reflect the diversity of the party - racially or ideologically. The fiasco of the 1968 convention in Chicago, where police battled anti-war protesters in the streets, led to calls for a more inclusive process.

One big change was awarding delegates proportionally, meaning you can finish second or third in a primary and still win delegates to the party's national convention. As long as candidates get at least 15 percent of the vote, they are eligible for delegates.

The system enables strong second-place candidates to stay competitive and extend the race - as long as they don't run out of campaign money. "For people who want a campaign to end quickly, proportional allocation is a bad system," Devine said. "For people who want a system that is fair and reflective of the voters, it's a much better system."

Another big change was the introduction of superdelegates, the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can vote for whomever they choose regardless of what happens in the primaries and caucuses.

Superdelegates were first seated at the 1984 convention. Much has been made of them this year because neither Obama nor Clinton can reach the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination without their support.

A more subtle change was the distribution of delegates within each state. As part of the proportional system, Democrats award delegates based on statewide vote totals as well as results in individual congressional districts. The delegates, however, are not distributed evenly within a state, like they are in the Republican system. Under Democratic rules, congressional districts with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates are rewarded with more delegates than districts that are more Republican.

Some districts packed with Democratic voters can have as many as eight or nine delegates up for grabs, while more Republican districts in the same state have three or four. The system is designed to benefit candidates who do well among loyal Democratic constituencies, and none is more loyal than black voters. Obama, who would be the first black candidate nominated by a major political party, has been winning 80 percent to 90 percent of the black vote in most primaries, according to exit polls. "Black districts always have a large number of delegates because they are the highest performers for the Democratic Party," said Elaine Kamarck, a Harvard University professor who is writing a book about the Democratic nominating process. "Once you had a black candidate you knew that he would be winning large numbers of delegates because of this phenomenon," said Kamarck, who is also a superdelegate supporting Clinton.

In states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Clinton won the statewide vote but Obama won enough delegates to limit her gains. In states Obama carried, like Georgia and Virginia, he maximized the number of delegates he won. "The Obama campaign was very good at targeting districts in areas where they could do well," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a Clinton superdelegate from South Carolina. "They were very conscious and aware of these nuances."

But, Fowler noted, the best strategy in the world would have been useless without the right candidate. "If that same strategy and that same effort had been used with a different candidate, a less charismatic candidate, a less attractive candidate, it wouldn't have worked," Fowler said. "The reason they look so good is because Obama was so good."

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