The Clinton Matrix before Florida/Michigan Compromise

This was the Clinton Matrix as of Saturday, just before the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee took action on the Florida and Michigan issues. As you can see, before the magic number was expanded to 2118, Senator Clinton had effectively run out of any realistic mathematical ability to gain the nomination.

I will re-vamp the Matrix so that it reflects the current state of affairs, using the same axes of pledged delegates and add-on delegates. After tomorrow, there will be no more pledged delegates left, save Edwards' 6.5.

The Clinton Matrix: May 27th Edition

THE CLINTON MATRIX

The end is nigh.

After the 4-1 pick up of add-on delegates over the weekend, plus the 4-pledged-delegate swing in Obama's favor, the Clinton Matrix is almost completely red, which indicates an impossible situation for Senator Clinton to gain the nomination (under the current 2025/2026 clinching number).

Keep in mind that this chart projects different outcomes with the pledged and add-on delegates, which follow their own rules, as opposed to the automatic delegates, which are unbounded. Senator Clinton will need to win every single uncommitted automatic delegate remaining even if she somehow were to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates (very unlikely) and 70% of the add-on delegates (near impossible). If somehow Clinton were to win 70% of both totals, she would still need 97% of the remaining automatic delegates to clinch, or 169/174 of this group.

For the entire grid to go red, Obama only needs to pick up 33 of the remaining pledged delegates, or 17 of the remaining add-on delegates, or some combination of 41 delegates from both the add-on and pledged totals.

Obama is on pace to pick up 17 pledged delegates in South Dakota and Montana, and at least 22 from Puerto Rico, which means that if he receives two more add-on delegates, or outperforms the weak total in Puerto Rico, he can effectively remove any hope for Clinton from any genuine or serious discussion of Clinton's chances to win the nomination.

The Clinton Matrix: May 20th Edition, Pre-Oregon/Kentucky Results

Here you go...

The odds are bleaker and bleaker for Senator Clinton. Her only chance is to keep above a 65% clip on pledged delegate gains in both Oregon and Kentucky. That scenario will not happen tonight, perhaps not even in Kentucky unless she pulls off another victory like West Virginia.

If she only nets a handful of pledged delegates today, let's say five (Clinton 31-20 in Kentucky; Obama 29-23 in Oregon), she would need 50% of the remaining add-ons and 65% of the remaining pledged delegates in Puerto Rico/South Dakota/Montana just to stay mathematically alive with the superdelegates. That would require 56 of the last 86 pledged delegates available. Losing South Dakota and Montana would probably result in a 18-13 split for Obama, meaning she'd have to sweep somehow Puerto Rico by a 43-12 margin in delegates. Heck, you practically get 12 delegates just for showing up, in proporational allocations.

The focus now is on Obama securing 1627, and in a pinch, 1783.5 if Florida and Michigan are seated without sanction. Obama should come close to splitting the remaining pledged delegates from OR/KY/MT/SD/PR, meaning he would add 94 to his total of 1612, giving him 1706 pledged delegates and leaving him 77.5 pledged delegates shy of the new mark. He won 72 in Florida by himself, and adding a few of the Edwards delegates to his total would push him over the top without any extra work in Michigan to seat delegates in his favor there.

It's been said before, but it bears repeating. The delegate math is over for Senator Clinton.

The irony here is that her push for "making sure everyone votes" really has nothing to do with the "will of the people" in Kentucky and other states at this stage of the game--it has to do with seating the automatic delegates from Florida and Michigan and relying on the undeclared automatic delegates to push her near the nomination.

Clinton Matrix: May 12th Edition

This is the latest version of the Clinton Matrix.

Even if Clinton manages to capture 60% of all remaining pledged and add-on delegates, she will need over 96% of all remaining automatic delegates (non-add-on superdelegates) to choose her.

Senator Clinton should keep pace above the 60+% share of delegates needed to stay alive after tomorrow's contest in West Virginia. However, of concern is that West Virginia only has three congressional districts, with each having 6 delegates. The other 10 delegates to be won are based on the statewide vote. This lack of odd-delegate districts may work to neutralize the delegate proportion of her victory tomorrow.

On a further note, I cleaned up the formulas a bit in the spreadsheet so that the numbers are a bit more accurate. This version is entirely accurate in terms of percent of automatic delegates needed for a Clinton victory pending her results in the pledged and add-on delegate categories.

The Clinton Matrix: Post May 6th Edition

THE CLINTON MATRIX: RESULTS OF MAY 6, 2008

As a result of the primary results yesterday (although 7 delegates unallocated still) and the superdelegate movement today, there has been a seismic shift in the possibilities in play for Senator Clinton to still reach 2025 and win the nomination.

The center squares have indicated a range of options that are most probable for Senator Clinton to achieve, given the unlikelihood of the add-on delegates or pledged delegates breaking hard for either candidate, unless that candidate was Barack Obama. The outer rings were possible, but unlikely, given the reality of proportional allocation of pledged delegates and state-by-state insulated decisions for add-ons.

Currently, no option exists for Senator Clinton if she only wins half of the 224 pledged delegates remaining, as there will be fewer superdelegates remaining than the number she needs to reach 2025.

If she manages to win 55% of the remaining pledged delegates, which would require a highly unlikely 123-101 split between her and Senator Obama, she still needs to garner at least 55% of the add-on delegate total to stay mathematically alive to capture the remaining superdelegates in a range between 98% and 100%.

Winning 55% of the add-on delegates would require her to beat Senator Obama at least 30-24 in a process where he should end up with a majority of add-on delegates.

If just two more superdelegates announce for Obama, then Clinton will need a 60% pickup in either pledged or add-ons just to remain alive.

At this point the only realistic chance Clinton has is a double whammy of a Michigan/Florida seating that cuts into Obama's pledged delegate lead, plus an event to force a major drop in the polls for Obama to increase her future pledged delegate lead, plus allow the superdelegates to break for her at an alarming clip.

The mainstream media are using numbers like 70% as the number of superdelegates needed for her to capture the nomination.

The reality is that Clinton will need 90% or better in even a highly charitable scenario.

As I've explained earlier, the add-on delegate situation is extremely important to consider, and entirely separate, from the undeclared superdelegates on the Hill or in the DNC. This block of unpledged delegate votes represents 1/5th of the remaining total unpledged votes.

The Clinton Nomination Matrix: May 5th Edition

I have changed the format of this matrix a little bit.

First, I have updated all the numbers so that the add-on delegates remaining to be won, and the pledged delegates remaining to be won, are accurate.

There are 48 add-on delegates to be named, and 6 add-on delegates left undeclared, so there are officially 54 add-on delegates that have not made a decision yet.

Also, the four Guam pledged delegates are now off the board, bringing down the number of pledged delegates to 404. After tomorrow's Indiana and North Carolina primaries I will revise these numbers.

As a result, the clean, neat projections of a 50/50 split between Obama and Clinton for each of these categories now becomes more nuanced, as different states come off the board for both pledged delegates and add-on delegates.

However, Senator Clinton is not expected to win more than 55% of the remaining pledged delegates or add-on delegates, which means that under the best of scenarios, she will need 78.6% of the remaining automatic (i.e. superdelegates that are not add-on) delegates to pick her to give her the nomination.

If she manages a split with Senator Obama in both categories from here on out, she will need essentially 90% of the superdelegates to move her way to capture the nomination.

As time goes on I want you to focus on the bright red part of the chart. These are options that are off the table for Clinton, because it would require her to win more superdelegates than those that actually remain, meaning she would need defections from Obama delegates. This scenario is not likely.

Notice how the bright red portion of the matrix continues to grow and grow as more pledged, add-on and superdelegates are selected and declared.

The Clinton Matrix -- Take Two

I cleaned up the Matrix a bit and put in percentages for the superdelegates need if Clinton wins a certain percent of the remaining pledged delegates (x-axis) and a certain percent of the add-on delegates (y-axis).

Keep in mind that the range of possibilities for both the x and y axes for Clinton is severly limited, and according to all projections, she will be close to the 50% mark for the pledged delegates and below the 50% mark for the add-on delegates.

Even if granted a 50% split in both categories, she will need at least 82.5% of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.

I will have to recalibrate these matrices soon with the influx of new superdelegates announcing today.

I remarked earlier that Clinton has to win roughly four new superdelegates for each one that Obama produces.

So when Obama produces five in the past two days, Clinton needs 24 of her own to keep on pace to win the nomination. She produced four, so in theory Obama put Clinton another 20 superdelegates in the hole on her path to the nomination.

Matching Obama superdelegate for superdelegate at this stage of the race is just running out the clock while behind in the game.

The Clinton Matrix

THE CLINTON MATRIX

I am unveiling for the first time my Clinton Matrix, which charts how she'll need to perform in the remaining key indicators of pledged delegates, add-on delegates and superdelegates.

By color-coding the chart I hope to provide you a visual of all the possibilities involved for Clinton to secure the 2025 delegates and to win the nomination.

This matrix is from the perspective of Senator Clinton's campaign.

The categories of pledged delegates and add-on delegates are pretty fixed at this point, in that they are less likely to swing wildly one way or the other given the proportional allocation rule for pledged delegates and the state-party-controlled characteristics of the add-on delegates.

The real wildcard left is the superdelegate category, which as I've explained earlier consists of the unpledged elected officeholders, distinguished party leaders and democratic party loyalists rewarded with a superdelegate vote. I separated add-on delegates from this category simply because those delegates are governed under much different rules, and are thus going to follow a different form of logic in their allocation.

The Two Axes: Pledged and Add-On Delegates

I set the range for the Pledged and Add-On Delegate categories from 30% -- 70% for each candidate, which covers the range for each handily. In reality, the most a candidate can hope for from each of these categories is 60%, and the least is 40%.

Consequently, in the matrix above I have italicized and reduced the font size for the squares that are not likely to happen, and put in bold the squares that were within this 60/40 range for each category, for each candidate, with the 50% pledged delegate + 50% add-on delegate square centered and with the percentage shown.

The Golden Center Square

This center square, achieved if Clinton wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates and 50% of the remaining add-on delegates, leaves a total of 194 superdelegates (out of 235) that Senator Clinton has to have in order to reach 2,025 and the nomination.

194 of 235 superdelegates represents an 82.5% share of the remaining superdelegates in the race.

Changes in the Future

As Senator Clinton outperforms the 50% rating for each of the two axes, her total of superdelegates needed decreases and her campaign moves to a square north and/or west of the center square.

As Senator Clinton underperforms the 50% rating for each of the two axes, her total of superdelgates needed increases and her campaign moves to a square south and/or east of the center square.

Keep in mind that this superdelegate matrix contemplates a total of 234 superdelegates, so while the raw total of superdelegates she will need stays the same within the grid, the percentage of total remaining superdelegates will become larger or smaller depending upon which candidate is receiving superdelegates and in what ratio. This may alter the shading of the square, which represents the range of the percent of the total remaining superdelegates Senator Clinton needs to reach 2,025.