Superdelegateland

Clinton and the Womens' Vote

2008-06-25T11:22:00.000-07:00

I found this latest article from Women's Wear Daily to be particularly insightful into the arrogance and frontrunner mentality of the Clinton campaign in thinking that it was the inevitable winner of the Democratic Primary.

The original deal, she said, included an interview with Clinton and a Leibovitz photo shoot for the December 2007 issue at the Clintons' Chappaqua, N.Y., home. After thinking everything was set, Reed months later was informed the deal was off. She said she was told, "We already have the women's vote in the bag," and that Wolfson said, '"We thought we were going to be in a bigger dogfight. We don't need you anymore.' This was right before Iowa. What an idiot!"

The women's vote in the bag? Before a single primary election had occurred? Astounding. It appears that Obama is thawing the Clinton freeze on her most adamant supporters, but I hope that stories like this continue to make their way out into the mainstream media--mainly, because it will help all the die-hards blaming external factors for Clinton's loss to realize that she had possibly the worst-run campaign possible during the first half of the primary season.

Every election year there are candidates whose arrogance or lack of leadership or organization cost them the chance to win election--and most of the time, these people are men given the skewing of gender in election politics. It should be a mark of feminism and equality to be able to say that a woman is as likely to screw up her campaign for the same reasons as a man, and accept it and move on to a stronger candidate the next time around.

If you're looking for a conspiracy for why Clinton lost, I would argue that it was a Conspiracy of Dunces in her campaign (Wolfson, Penn, etc.) that undermined the potentially groundbreaking campaign of Hillary Clinton.

Jon Stewart Eviscerates Stupid Media

2008-06-17T17:21:00.000-07:00

He's so right. Since when is the publication of unfounded rumors on an unverified internet site justification for using national airwaves to "push-poll" those same scurrilous whispers?

It's sort of like someone coming up to you saying, "I don't believe it, but the bum that hangs out behind the 7-11 said your girlfriend went down on him." A quick right-cross to the informant's face solves the problem.

Consider this clip Jon Stewart's knockout punch on the media:

Al Gore Endorses Barack Obama

2008-06-17T01:02:00.000-07:00

This announcement was quite a 'regalo' (anagram for Al Gore) today for Senator Obama in Flint, Michigan. Further taking steps to unify the party and to enhance his legitimacy and stature as the Democratic Presumptive Nominee, Senator Obama rolled out a major endorsement today from the man Democrats believe actually won the 2000 election.

Senator Obama continues to show the state of Michigan that he is serious about earning their electoral votes. First with former Vice Presidential nominee John Edwards, and now with former Vice President and Presidential Nominee Al Gore, Senator Obama has made it a point to make these two huge, major endorsements public within the confines of the Wolverine State.

Beyond the fact that Gore is a superdelegate, adding to Obama's total, this endorsement adds particular heft to Obama's credentials. While Senator Clinton has endorsed Obama, you get the sense that there is political obligation to do so as the vanquished candidate. Gore, on the other hand, carries with him a moral gravitas with him, as a result of his 'victory' in 2000, his Oscar, his Nobel Peace Prize, and his general high standing among Democrats. While former President Bill Clinton has spent the primary season undermining and diluting his aura and statesman role in world affairs, Al Gore has remained unsullied by the primary fight and is viewed as an important figure in the Democratic Party.

In classic triangulation, Al Gore's endorsement is the tiebreaker pulling undecided Democrats and disaffected Clinton supporters to the Obama camp. Heck, if the man "who really won the 2000 election" believes Obama is of presidential timbre, why shouldn't I as an average citizen?

There was an interesting point brought up today by David Gergen in CNN's coverage--the idea of Gore as the key player in an Obama administration renegotiating the Kyoto Treaty (which expires in the next four years), and how early publicity for Gore in an Obama Administration would be a boon for the Illinois senator. Gergen enhanced the point to talk about Bill Clinton's status as an international peacemaker, perhaps in the Middle East, and also Hillary Clinton's role in delivering universal healthcare.

The commentators have mentioned how Obama has turned the Democratic Party upside down a bit and has claimed the mantel as the leader of this political party through his amazing victory over the Clinton legacy, his bringing forth armies of new voters registered or affiliated with the Democratic Pary, and his potent fundraising ability. A second point heretofore unmentioned is that by defeating Hillary Clinton and diminishing the Bill Clinton legacy, Al Gore looms even larger in the new generation of an Obama-led Democratic Party, and becomes the defining, most accessible figure of the Clinton Administration in this new Obama generation.

Gore has kept himself on ice politically for eight years, and has instead led the fight against global climate change just before the political groundswell for this topic became current. In the eyes of the younger generation, the Obama generation, Al Gore remains a relevant and an almost mythical leader in this regard.

The Obama victory over Hillary Clinton not only closes the door on the Clinton generation of the party, but reopens the door for Gore to re-enter the scene and re-engage the political landscape as Vice-President or Cabinet Member in the Obama Administration.

Al Gore was left to wander in the wilderness after his epic election struggle with George W. Bush, politically potent but without a post. Now he can come back stronger than ever, and build on his legendary status as the pre-eminent politician in the fight against global warming.

Al Gore and Barack Obama seem to be soulmates in terms of seeing an interdependent, globalized world in which the United States needs to be a leader not only in military might, but also in diplomacy, economics and ethics. Gore makes an eloquent case for an Obama presidency, with the full weight of his moral standing cloaking Obama in the tradition and history of the Democratic Party. When Gore talks about America needing to have "moral courage" to enact change and engage the world, he is speaking in a language that Senator Obama embodies, in a way that the Clintons never could with any genuine feeling. The mutual earnestness of these two men show that eight years separate their political careers, but their hopes and goals are compatible. The concept that we face challenges that should unite us as Americans and as global citizens is something that both men bring to the table.

Might this be the beginning of the Obama-Gore '08 ticket?

Below is Al Gore's ringing endorsement of Senator Obama:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Obama's Address on Fatherhood

2008-06-17T00:09:00.001-07:00

I found this address on Father's Day to be particularly moving.

Requiescat In Pace

2008-06-13T13:39:00.000-07:00

More Add-On Delegate News

2008-06-11T14:24:00.000-07:00

With press interest waning for the remaining delegate news for the Democratic Primary, finding quick and reliable sources for this information is becoming more difficult.

Demconwatch is doing a great job, and they are also announcing their new website address: www.demconwatchblog.com, although the old address demconwatch.blogspot.com also works as well.

From their site I've been able to find the add-on delegates from Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Vermont from this past weekend.

Pennsylvania was the third of three tests for Senator Obama's case for party unity from the past weekend.

In one test, Kentucky, he was awarded the add-on delegate despite being trounced by Clinton in the primary.

In another test, Texas, he was awarded two of three add-on delegates and was able to engineer a compromise to keep a Clinton supporter, female and labor (AFL-CIO) leader--all wrapped up in one person--on as an add-on delegate and then convince her to support him at the Convention.

The last test, Pennsylvania, did not go as well for Obama. This site shows the complete list of Pennsylvania delegates to the National Convention, and displays the names of the three new unpledged add-on delegates:

John Street
Jack Wagner
Lynne Abraham

Doing some further research, we can determine that two of these add-on delegates (Street and Abraham) are Clinton supporters, while Wagner is an Obama supporter.

Street endorsed Clinton all the way back in July of 2007, according to this Clinton campaign press release.

Wagner endorsed Obama in April when Obama was gearing up for the Pennsylvania primary. As a Vietnam vet and Western Pennsylvania figure, Wagner's endorsement at the time was seen as very helpful to Obama's credibility with the demographic base of rural Pennsylvania.

Abraham's loyalties are harder to find but this Pennsylvania blog did post that Abraham was listed as a Clinton delegate on the state convention ballot for delegate selection to the national convention.

A 2-1 Clinton win in Pennsylvania among add-on delegates really was not that surprising given her victory in the state and her ownership of the Pennsylvania political machine, but in the context of Senator Obama becoming the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, expressing a call for party unity around him as the leader, and needing a victory in Pennsylvania in the fall, it would have been much more fruitful for him to have picked up all three of these delegates as a sign of support for his candidacy.

Minnesota and Vermont add-on delegates will be posted in the next post.

Slate's 8-Minute Review of the Primary

2008-06-09T11:26:00.000-07:00

Simply Brilliant.

Texas Two-Step: Clinton Add-On Endorses Obama

2008-06-09T10:53:00.000-07:00

Earlier I had posted that there was a lot of delicate maneuvering in how the add-on delegates from Texas would be apportioned, with the complicating factors of the traditional spot for the AFL-CIO head being amplifed by the fact that this year that head is the first female ever selected for the spot, and also a big Hillary Clinton supporter.

I also cautioned that "Moeller's official vote at the National Convention is not known for sure," because we didn't know the terms of the compromise in place to allow her to go to the National Convention.

Now it turns out that Becky Moeller has embraced the call for unity and has come out clearly for Obama and can be counted as an Obama superdelegate.

BurntOrangeReport deserves a lot of kudos for their outstanding work covering the primary, delegates, caucuses and now state convention.

From Moeller's press statement:

“I am confident an AFL-CIO endorsement in the presidential contest will arrive before long, but today I am personally and independently urging Democrats, union
members and open-minded independents across Texas to rally around Barack Obama’s historic campaign for the presidency.”
“Hillary Clinton’s candidacy made a permanent mark on American political history. As a union activist and as a woman who has fought to break glass ceilings in my career, I joined millions of Americans who saw in Hillary the path to a better, more just society. Democrats in both camps worked to our utmost abilities in this campaign, and it is a tribute to Sen. Obama that he became the presumptive nominee against competition that touched a chord with so many Americans.”

“Now is the time to look at the bigger picture and unite. The issues facing our nation are too important and the gap between the candidates too great to let even the greatest of political primary struggles linger. Sen. Obama has shown he, too, can lead us to a better, more just society. I thank Ron Kirk and all the Obama campaign
officials in Texas for declaring that from here on, all Democrats are invited to walk together toward victory in November. At this new juncture, I proudly, wholeheartedly and optimistically support Barack Obama for president.”
“A new future is at hand for America. We know the path to positive change and we know the path to more of the same. By coming together around Barack Obama’s candidacy, Democrats will write the next chapter in an election for the ages and in the history of our great nation."

Montana Selects Obama Supporter As Add-On Delegate

2008-06-09T10:41:00.000-07:00

Keeping true to the results of the recent primary election in Montana, the Democratic State Party selected an Obama supporter to receive the state's add-on delegate slot to the National Convention.

According to the article:

The final delegate, Anna Whiting Sorrell, of Lake County, elected as an add-on unpledged delegate, said she would support Obama in Denver.

With Sorrell's support, Obama took a clean sweep of the Montana super-delegation, as all eight unpledged superdelegates have endorsed him.

Texas Names Its Three Add-On Delegates -- 2 for Obama, 1 for Clinton

2008-06-08T11:24:00.000-07:00

And they are Becky Moeller, Ron Kirk and Molly Beth Malcolm.

There was a bit of a controversy brewing yesterday when it was reported by bloggers that the Obama campaign might not give Moeller, the first female head of the AFL-CIO for Texas, her traditional spot as an add-on delegate for Texas because she was a Clinton supporter.

As a result of compromise, Obama picks up two add-on delegates and Clinton one, although Moeller's official vote at the National Convention is not known for sure.

Kirk is the former Dallas Mayor and major Obama supporter in Texas, and Malcolm was a Texas state party chairwoman and current Obama supporter.

Even though Obama did not get a pure three-delegate sweep, he did strike a strong note for party unity by ensuring that a major Clinton supporter, a major Labor member, and the first female head of the AFL-CIO was invited to the Convention as well. Shunning her from the spot would have caused much more damage than any strength any extra supporter would have provided, plus it might have given Texas women Democrats a reason to back away from Obama.

Kentucky Democrats Name Obama Supporter As Add-On Delegate

2008-06-08T10:48:00.000-07:00

Senator Obama passed on major test of party unity yesterday when the Kentucky Democratic Party, convening to name the delegates to the National Convention, also selected an Obama supporter as their add-on delegate.

As I noted here, the ability of the Kentucky Democratic Party to nominate an Obama supporter would show how far the state party was willing to unite around the presumpive nominee, despite his overwhelming loss in the state primary to Senator Clinton.

Matthew Barzun, an Obama backer, was named the Kentucky add-on delegate.

In other Kentucky news, three uncommitted Kentucky superdelegates--Governor Steve Beshear, State Chairwoman Jennifer Moore, and Vice-Chairman Nathan Smith--pledged themselves to Senator Obama at the Convention.

Yes, Hillary Clinton Is Now an Obama Superdelegate

2008-06-07T20:22:00.003-07:00

In case you were wondering...her official endorsement of Barack Obama technically means she's a superdelegate for Obama now, even though she may well vote for herself still on the floor of the Convention.

Mississippi Democrats Elect AG Jim Hood as add-on delegate

2008-06-07T20:14:00.000-07:00

Finally found some confirmation here at this live blog from the Mississippi Convention.

Looks like Attorney General Jim Hood was elected as the "unpledged delegate to the convention", which translates into add-on.

No word yet officially if Hood has allegiances to either candidate.

Still Waiting for Add-On News from Today

2008-06-07T19:32:00.000-07:00

11 add-on delegates were at stake today in key states of Pennsylvania, Texas, Kentucky and three other states (Vermont, Minnesota, Mississippi), and one more from Montana is at stake on Sunday.

I wrote here about how the add-on delegate results from Pennsylvania, Texas and Kentucky were separate tests for Senator and Presumptive Democratic Nominee Barack Obama on how unified the party was at this point in time.

I was perusing the different blogs and news sites from each state convention trying to glean some information.

From Texas I find that a controversy of sorts erupted when the tradition of electing the head of the AFL-CIO as an add-on delegate was imperiled by the fact that this person this year is Becky Moeller, who supported Senator Clinton in the primary, when the Obama campaign is pushing for all three add-on delegates as a show of strength and unity.

The appointment of the AFL-CIO head as an add-on delegate is deemed traditional in Texas, so going against this tradition is ruffling feathers. Also, Moeller is the first female head of the Texas AFL-CIO. So bumping her out not only hurts labor relations, but also gender relations in a state with a strong split between the two candidates. The blogger seems to believe that there is some compromise in the works between the two campaigns, which are having to de-escalate from full-on war quickly since Tuesday.

From Mississippi an unverified report suggests that the add-on delegate selected was a Hillary supporter, which is odd considering that Obama won the state heavily.

The other states are just simply impossible to track down anything right now. Hopefully something will become available by tomorrow.

Obama Receives Endorsement of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid

2008-06-06T17:42:00.001-07:00

Senator Reid officially endorses Senator Barack Obama for President.

From his official statement:

“Over the past 16 months, tens of millions of Americans from all walks of life have been inspired to support Barack Obama’s historic campaign for President, and with good reason: he is a once-in-a-generation leader who connects with the hopes and dreams of the American people and will deliver the long-overdue change that our country desperately needs. I could not be more excited to have Senator Obama lead a united Democratic Party to victory in November and I am committed to doing everything I can to help.

“I also congratulate Hillary Clinton for her tremendous contributions in this campaign and for our country. She is a wonderful Senator and friend whose vision and determination have made our party stronger. There is no question that she will continue to be a force for change.

“As we turn to the general election, it is obvious that John McCain will try to rewrite his record and divorce himself from the disastrous Bush-Cheney policies he supports. But his record is clear. John McCain has the wrong judgment and temperament to be President, and we cannot afford any more of the same mistakes that have weakened our country and made us less secure.

“As our next President, Barack Obama will responsibly end the war in Iraq, make the American Dream affordable for working families once again, and deliver a government as good and honest as the people it represents. I look forward to working with him - and an expanded Democratic majority in Congress - to deliver this promise of change to the American people.”

Obama Faces Three Separate Tests This Weekend (add-on delegate news)

2008-06-06T11:45:00.000-07:00

It's anticlimatic, but the actions of three state conventions held this weekend, especially in light of the Clinton concession, will provide yet another indicator of how the Democratic Party will unify.

12 add-on delegates are at stake this weekend from seven states. Seven of the add-ons come from three states that are emblematic of the challenges Senator Obama inherits from the primary race and now faces in the general election.

How these three states resolve their add-on delegate selections may provide a window into how the party unifies, especially since these three states provide a microcosm of the problems Obama has faced so far in the primary:

Kentucky: 1 add-on -- A 36% blowout for Clinton, albeit uncontested by Obama. Kentucky symbolizes the Appalachia weakness for Obama, and is a state that along with West Virginia may be hardest for Obama to gain traction. A pick-up of an add-on delegate here shows that the Kentucky state party, at least, is hoping to unify.

Pennsylvania: 3 add-ons -- Obama lost by 8.5 points, perhaps damaged most by the weeks of Reverend Wright controversy looped on the mainstream media news programs. Clinton also capitalized on a strong party machine run by Governor Ed Rendell and most of the superdelegation in the state. If Obama gains all three add-ons here, it means the state has committed to supporting him and the machinery will likely propel him to victory. The Democratic State Committee nominates from the floor and approves by majority these add-on delegates.

Texas: 3 add-ons -- Obama lost the Hispanic vote heavily, won the caucuses, and might have won the state as a whole were it not for Republican shenanigans via Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos. Helping Obama is the fact that the State Chair (and his superdelegate wife) are both Obama supporters now, and that he won all caucuses in the State. From the rulebook:

Nominations for Unpledged Add-on Delegates shall be presented to the convention
by the Committee to Nominate At-Large Delegates of the State Convention
(composed of 34 members, one member to be elected by each Senatorial District
Caucus and three members to be appointed by the Permanent Convention Chair...

Obama should win the add-on delegates from Minnesota (2), Vermont, Mississippi, and Montana with ease. How the other three states go will be more important from a political standpoint than a delegate standpoint.

Superdelegate Endorsements/Switches for Obama Flowing

2008-06-06T11:25:00.000-07:00

At this point, these are more cosmetic in displaying party unity than anything else. It's also a sign that Senator Clinton believes her campaign truly is over--she can't completely release her pledged delegates, but she can release her superdelegates to Obama for unification purposes.

Thanks to Demconwatch for this list--it's easier than tabulating it myself.

Updated Net Gains: Obama +41.5, Clinton -32.

Total net switch of 73.5 delegates.

Here are the new commitments from previously undeclared superdelegates:

Rep. Nikki Tsongas (MA)

DNC Richard Ray (GA)

DNC Dick Cranwell (VA)

Rep. Jim Matheson (UT) -- the last undeclared from Utah.

Sen. Jim Webb (VA) -- a huge pickup and clears the way for VP talks

DNC Robert Rankin (CA)

Add-on Delegate Jim Hoffa (MI)#

Rep. Zach Space (OH)

DNC Chris Redfern (OH)

Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH)

And here are the switches from Clinton to Obama:

Former House Speaker Tom Foley (WA)

Rep. Jay Inslee (WA)

Gov. Ted Strickland (OH) --already noted in other post.

DNC Billi Gosh (VT)

Rep. Diana DeGette (CO)

Rep. Alcee L. Hastings (FL)*

Rep. Corrine Brown (FL)*

Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (FL)*

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL)* -- A huge pickup for Obama in regards to party unity and Jewish voters. She was a fierce Clinton supporter up until now.

DNC Helan Langan (UT) -- Lukewarm switch at best, she now completes the sweep of the Utah super-delegation for Obama.

Rep. Betty Sutton (OH)

Rep. Norm Dicks (WA)

All 23 members of the NY Congressional Delegation, all switches from Clinton:

Anthony Weiner
Brian Higgins
Carolyn Maloney
Carolyn McCarthy
Charles Rangel
Edolphus Towns
Eliot Engel
Gary Ackerman
Gregory Meeks
Jerrold Nadler
John Hall
Jose Serrano
Joseph Crowley
Kirsten Gillibrand
Louise Slaughter
Maurice Hinchey
Michael Arcuri
Michael McNulty
Nita Lowey
Nydia Velazquez
Steve Israel
Timothy Bishop
Yvette D. Clarke

Mr. Super Muses on the Future of Superdelegates

2008-06-05T15:00:00.000-07:00

It's a good read.

The State Super-Delegations Most Aligned with One Candidate

2008-06-05T14:17:00.000-07:00

Obviously some switching has gone on here and there, mainly from the Clinton camp to the Obama camp, in the ranks of the superdelegates. And obviously several scores of superdelegates need to make up their minds, and 33 add-on delegates still need to be named...but at this moment, let's take a look at the state delegations of superdelegates (I call them 'superdelegations') that are most unified in their support for one candidate or the other.

The following superdelegations went for one candidate by a 60% share or better (as of today).

CLINTON:

New York:

Clinton 94%
46 for Clinton
2 for Obama
1 undeclared

Arkansas:

Clinton 92%
11 for Clinton
0 for Obama
1 undeclared

Rhode Island:

Clinton 73%
8 for Clinton
2 for Obama
1 undeclared

American Samoa:

Clinton 67%
4 for Clinton
2 for Obama
0 undeclared

Pennsylvania:

Clinton 62%
16 for Clinton
9 for Obama
1 undeclared

New Jersey:

Clinton 60%
12 for Clinton
7 for Obama
1 undeclared

OBAMA:

Montana:

Obama 100%
8 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared

North Dakota:

Obama 100%
8 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Nebraska:

Obama 100%
6 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Idaho:

Obama 100%
4 for Obama
0 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Illinois:

Obama 94%
29 for Obama
2 undeclared

Minnesota:

Obama 86%
12 for Obama
1 for Clinton
11 undeclared

Connecticut:

Obama 83%
10 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Wyoming:

Obama 83%
5 for Obama
1 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Wisconsin:

Obama 81%
13 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared

Alaska:

Obama 80%
4 for Obama
1 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Hawaii:

Obama 78%
7 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Kansas:

Obama 78%
7 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared

Oregon:

Obama 75%
9 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared

Maine:

Obama 75%
6 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared

South Dakota:

Obama 71%
5 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Mississippi:

Obama 71%
5 for Obama
0 for Clinton
2 undeclared

Vermont:

Obama 71%
5 for Obama
1 for Clinton
1 undeclared

Oklahoma:

Obama 70%
7 for Obama
1 for Clinton
2 undeclared

Georgia:

Obama 67%
1o for Obama
3 for Clinton
2 undeclared

South Carolina:

Obama 67%
6 for Obama
2 for Clinton
1 undeclared

North Carolina:

Obama 65%
11 for Obama
3 for Clinton
3 undeclared

Iowa:

Obama 64%
7 for Obama
3 for Clinton
1 undeclared

Democrats Abroad:

Obama 62.5%
2.5 for Obama
1.5 for Clinton

Colorado:

Obama 60%
9 for Obama
4 for Clinton
2 undeclared

Guam:

Obama 60%
3 for Obama
2 for Clinton
0 undeclared

Ohio Governor Strickland Endorses Obama

2008-06-05T12:47:00.000-07:00

In a sharp turnaround from being the lead supporter for Senator Clinton in Ohio, Governor Ted Strickland has formally come around to endorse Senator Obama as the Democratic Nominee.

Here is his press release:

##

Subject: STATEMENT: Governor Strickland Endorses Barack Obama

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 5, 2008

Governor Ted Strickland issued the following statement this afternoon:

"Today, I announce my wholehearted and enthusiastic support for Barack Obama for President of the United States.

Earlier today I talked with Sen. Hillary Clinton. I thanked her for her friendship and the strong effort she put forth in this historic campaign. I pledged to work with her to unify the party and to make sure that Barack Obama wins the presidency.

Ohioans have suffered as a result of the failed policies of the Bush Administration, including job loss as a result of rising fuel prices. Ohioans desperately want real, meaningful change. And I believe Barack Obama will bring that change."

###

Could this be the sign that Strickland wishes to get back in the good graces of the Obama campaign for VP consideration, after this famous scene from the campaign?

Jon Stewart Mocking Hillary "Inevitability" Pundits, McCain Speech

2008-06-05T10:48:00.000-07:00

There's nothing better than Jon Stewart at his finest.

The Day After: Tons of New Superdelegate Endorsements

2008-06-04T11:52:00.000-07:00

Several endorsements promised for United States Senator and Democratic Presumptive Nominee for President of the United States Barack Obama have come to fruition today.

FOR SENATOR OBAMA: +28 (-3 for Clinton)

Tennessee Governor Mark Bredesen had promised yesterday to endorse Senator Obama today, along with two other Tennessee superdelegates, and hold a "unity event" on behalf of the party.

You may recall Governor Bredesen as the originator of the proposed "superdelegate conference" in the beginning of May, should the superdelegates not push a candidate over the threshold to become the nominee.

Bredesen was joined in Nashville by Gray Sasser and Inez Crutchfield, two fellow Tennessee superdelegates from the state party in his announcement.

Tennessee has three more uncommitted superdelegates: Lincoln Davis, Bart Gordon, and some guy name Al Gore.

Two of the US Senators leading the way in the push for all uncommitted Senators to get behind Obama were Ken Salazar of Colorado and Tom Harkin of Iowa (note: Obama won both swing states handily). Although the package deal of Senators has yet to materialize, both Salazar and Harkin decided today to make their support for Senator Obama public.

Another Senator, Tom Cardin of Maryland, also endorsed Obama today. In an interesting note, Cardin implied that two fellow Maryland superdelegates in the Clinton column--Barbara Mikulski (Senator) and Martin O'Malley (Governor)--would also work to support Obama as well. In the article, Cardin also showed that he was an implicit member of the "Pelosi Club":

Cardin, a superdelegate, had been waiting for the completion of the final primary to declare his support. He said he believed the job of superdelegates was to not to decide the outcome of the race but rather to monitor and ratify the primary process.
"I have not announced my endorsement before this time because I believe strongly in the electoral process and in giving Democrats from across this nation the right to determine who should be our Party's presidential nominee."

Joining Senator Ken Salazar in his endorsement of Obama were two fellow Colorado superdelegates and Congressmen, John Salazar and Mark Udall.

Mark Udall's cousin Tom Udall--this one the last of the New Mexico superdelegates, Congressman (and Senate Candidate)--has also officially announced for Obama. Tom Udall had credited his neutrality during the primary season to the fact that Clinton won the state while Obama won his district.

Congressman Chris Van Hollen, Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has also stepped forward to endorse Senator Obama. Van Hollen earlier seemed to have tipped his hand by commenting in February about his belief that "every superdelegate has to really take into consideration the judgment of the American people and the elected delegates, meaning those who are pledged, as we reach a decision."

Despite this seeming support for the Pelosi Club rationale, Van Hollen refused to endorse at that time.

"I made it clear early on that I wasn't going to take any position in the
presidential primary," said Van Hollen. "Because we work -- we the DCCC -- very
closely with both presidential campaigns, both the Hillary Clinton campaign and
the Barack Obama campaign. And of course, we look forward to working with the
eventual nominee to make sure that that new president has a strong Democratic
majority in the House to work with. Because of that I have not yet taken a
position."

From the Garden State, New Jersey, comes two new superdelegate endorsements as well. Senator Frank Lautenberg and Congressman Rush Holt have both agreed to support Senator Obama.

Another Distinguished Party Leader is backing Obama, and this time it's Walter Mondale, the former Vice President from Minnesota, who has switched from Clinton to Obama.

In somewhat surprising news, a trio of Pennsylvania Congressmen--Mike Doyle, Jason Altmire and Bob Brady--have announced that they would also endorse Senator Obama. Careful not to expose themselves politically in a state that went handily for Senator Clinton, each of these congressmen waited until the nomination became a formality before endorsing. In fact, Altmire went so far as to say that this was not an endorsement as much as getting behind the Democratic nominee for the Party.

In a defection from the Clinton campaign, Utah superdelegate Karen Hale announced her switch to supporting Senator Obama. Of interest in another article is that two other members of the Utah "superdelegation" are still undecided about their final plans--Congressman Jim Matheson wants to wait and see what Obama and Clinton decide on the end of the race, and Clinton supporter Helen Langan may end up switching to Obama in the end.

Both Langan and Hale had both given a signal that their support of Clinton might switch at some time in the future to Obama depending on how the race unfolded.

A previously uncommitted add-on delegate from Arizona, Terry Goddard, has finally announced his support for Obama as well, months after Clinton won the state and weeks after Goddard was selected as the add-on delegate. Goddard was the last Arizona superdelegate to make a decision public.

Four more US Senators made their decisions for Obama known today as well.

The other US Senators were California Senator Barbara Boxer, Delaware Senator Tom Carper, Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu, and Oregon Senator Tom Wyden, who all appeared with Cardin, Harkin, Salazar and Lautenberg to make their announcement as a gesture of unity behind Senator Obama's candidacy.

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold also made his announcement for Obama today, after months of speculation driven by his leaking of his vote for Obama in the Wisconsin primary.

Maine Congressman Michael Michaud also endorsed Obama today, after originally endorsing John Edwards months ago and then becoming neutral after Edwards dropped out of the race.

Rounding out the list of endorsements for Senator Obama today are the following superdelegates:

David Strauss (North Dakota)

Paula Zellner (Wisconsin). Zellner is a campaign field director for Senator Russ Feingold.

Ed Cote (Washington) and Sharon Mast (Washington)

FOR SENATOR CLINTON: +2 (-1 for Obama)

In a surprising move, another Senator, South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson, decided to switch from OBAMA to CLINTON! This move was precipitated by Senator Clinton's win in his home state last night, which Senator Johnson had said would drive his vote.

This, despite the fact that Johnson admitted that he voted for Obama in the primary and endorsed Obama in January. Sounds from the interview that Johnson got himself into a bind thinking Obama was going to win the state and then being forced to welch on that promise after Clinton won the state. Johnson is committed to Clinton as long as she is in the race--which means when Clinton drops out he'll go back to supporting Obama.

Clinton also picked up another superdelegate from South Dakota today--Cheryl Chapman.

21.5 More Superdelegates Endorse Obama

2008-06-03T21:22:00.001-07:00

I'll try to put forth the ones that just came out since Montana polls closed, with help from the Obama campaign.

The Obama campaign is touting another 26.5 superdelegates endorsing Obama tonight. Compared to the previously recorded superdelegate endorsements, this number is actually 21.5 superdelegates, still a huge number. Here they are, by state:

Arizona

Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords said:

“Now that all primaries and caucuses have concluded, I am enthusiastically endorsing Senator Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. Since the outset of this historic race for the White House, I have been impressed by the intellect and patriotism of both Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama. They have demonstrated the passion and wisdom to move our nation towards a brighter future. I respect and admire both of them.

“Every state has had a chance to vote and Barack Obama has emerged with more support. In becoming a delegate for him, I recognize his inspiring and thoughtful leadership that brought him to the finish line. I am proud to join Governor Janet
Napolitano and millions of voters throughout the country in supporting Barack
Obama as the next President of the United States. I agree with his policy priorities and his commitment to create a cooperative and bipartisan era in American politics. In states large and small, Barack Obama has shared his hope, optimism, and vision of what is possible. Americans from all walks of life see in him someone who can truly change our nation. I do as well.”

Arizona Democratic Party Chair Don Bivens said:

“Now that our historic season of caucuses and primaries is behind us, it is time for each superdelegate to choose between two outstanding candidates. For me, that choice is Senator Barack Obama. He is an extraordinary leader, with the ability to bring people together across party lines to solve problems. That is exactly what our country needs right now, a pragmatic change of direction.

“I congratulate Senator Clinton on her hard-fought campaign. She is a true leader and an inspiration to millions. I am confident she will act to unite our party, and our country, behind our party's chosen candidate for President.”

California

DNC Member Christine Pelosi said:

“Barack Obama has captured the majority of the popular delegates from caucuses
and primaries from sea to shining sea. Barack Obama has the vision, ideas and values needed to bring positive change to our lives, from economic justice to energy independence to an end to the Iraq war and care for our veterans. As an activist dedicated to participatory democracy, I am thrilled that tens of millions of voters and tens of thousands of volunteers have participated in this Democratic nomination and breathed new life intro our democracy. I have great respect for our other presidential candidates, particularly Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has proved herself to be a champion for working families.”

DNC Member Rachel Binah (switch from Clinton, already recorded) said:

“The people have spoken and I look forward to working with all my energy and
enthusiasm for a man who I believe will make an extraodrinarily wonderful
president. His environmental record is unparallelled and he has a sensitivity to
the issues of our time.”

DNC Member John Perez (already recorded):

“Now that the primary season has come to a close, I officially endorse Senator Barack Obama for President. I believe that now is the time for us to come together and unite for victory against John McCain in the fall. Senator Obama has run an extraordinary, forward-looking campaign focused on hope, unity and our shared values as Democrats. I am confident that he will bring our party and all Americans together as our nominee and as President."

Congressman Sam Farr (already recorded) said:

“Tonight, after the polls close, the presidential primary for the Democratic candidates will have run its course. Although Hillary Clinton has won many of the big blue states and energized her voters, Barack Obama has won the nomination. After the final ballot has been cast tonight, I will officially endorse Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate for the presidency.

“Barack is an exciting new leader in American politics. He will work to end the war in Iraq, he will tackle domestic issues that have been neglected for years and he will help repair our battered reputation abroad. I look forward to working with him to bridge the current political divide and address the problems that face our country.”

Congressman Bob Filner (already recorded) said:

“I take great pride in announcing my support for Senator Barack Obama as the
next President of the United States. As Chairman of the House Veterans Affairs Committee, I look forward to fighting alongside Senator Obama to correct eight years of neglect of our nation's heroes--working for real gains for America's veterans!”

Congressman Jerry McNerney said:

“Senator Obama represents hope for the future. He has inspired legions of young people who will energize our nation and help bring about the kind of change necessary to turn the incredible threats we face into opportunities.

“Given my background in wind energy, I am excited that Senator Obama has an appreciation for how to create clean, sustainable, family wage jobs in renewable energy. He also knows how important it is to use America's greatest asset, innovation, to put America ahead of the rising energy costs with new energy technology including both efficiency and new sources of energy.”

Colorado

Governor Bill Ritter said:

“I'm proud to pledge my support to Sen. Barack Obama to become the next President of the United States of America,” Gov. Ritter said. “Sen. Obama offers a strong sense of hope and promise for our country's future. His success at inspiring people from all walks of life, his commitment to the need for education and health-care reform, and his sense of independence and purpose make him appealing to Coloradans and other Westerners. He understands the promise of a New Energy Economy, of opportunity for all, of building a strong economy for our children. He is the best person to help Americans and Coloradans achieve their God-given potential, and I am proud to endorse him.”

Florida

DNC Member Michell Ceasar (already recorded) said:

“Senator Obama is the clear delegate leader and I believe it is now time to focus on the general election and to prevent John McCain from providing a third Bush term.”

Congressman Ron Klein said:

“I will be casting my ballot at the Democratic National Convention for Senator
Barack Obama. Senator Obama is the kind of leader that comes along only once in
a generation. He has the unique ability to move our country forward, past the petty partisan politics that so many of us have grown so weary of, and his vision is a breath of fresh air. I believe he will serve our nation ably and well, and am proud to support his candidacy. With my vote at the convention comes a commitment to reach out to voters in South Florida throughout the general election season.

“The primary is now behind us, but we still have a critical task ahead. All of us, supporters of Senator Obama and Senator Clinton alike, must come together and stand united as a force for change in this nation. Americans will have a stark choice this November: a choice between a continuation of the failed policies of the current administration, or a fresh start. We must stand together, with one voice, and call for a fresh start on Iraq, on health care, on education, and on developing clean, affordable
renewable energy. These issues are too important to focus on what divides us. We must now focus on what unites us as Democrats, and on the general election this fall.”

Georgia

Georgia State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond said:

“This campaign has been one of the closest most hard fought contests in the history of our nation. Senator Obama and Senator Clinton have demonstrated their commitment to the changes that are badly needed in this country and their ability to lead America forward. Now that the primary and caucus season has concluded, the time has come for us to unify the party and throw our complete support behind Senator Barack Obama in order to win the November election. I am impressed by his vision, intellect, and his unique ability to attract new voters to the Democratic column.”

Kansas

President of the National Federation of Democratic Women Helen Knetzer (already recorded) said:

“The American people have endured enough in the past seven and a half years from
this Republican Administration and the United States is in desperate need of a leader who realizes our economic and international challenges. This has been a long and hard-fought primary and both Senators Clinton and Obama have shown the ability to lead us in this country, but today we must put our differences aside in a united effort to ensure that we win in November. I’m pleased to endorse Barack Obama.”

Lousiana

DNC Member Patsy Arceneaux said:

“I believe that it is time to put aside divisive politics and to unite as Democrats looking forward to a victory in November and the hope of real change in America.”

Maine

DNC Member Sam Spencer said:

“My decision, in part, is based on the fact that Senator Obama has won a majority of pledged delegates (which I believe is the most important measurement) and has attained a majority of all delegates. Senator Obama was the majority winner of Maine’s caucuses. Senator Obama is the Democratic winner of the nomination. Senator Obama is an extraordinary candidate and has inspired Democrats in Maine and across the country to show their support in record numbers. Now we must work to sustain this momentum into the national election to take back the White House.”

Maryland

Congressman John Sarbanes said:

“I am excited to join in expressing my strong support for Barack Obama, who I
believe will be an outstanding president. Now that the votes have been cast and the primary season has come to its close, I am pleased to play a part in ratifying the decision of the voters in my district and across the country. Moving forward, the importance of unifying the party behind one candidate is vital and Democrats in the Third District, the State of Maryland, and the nation are quickly turning their focus to electing Senator Obama as our next President.”

Michigan

Congressman Bart Stupak said:

“This has been an historic presidential primary election with phenomenal interest in our Democratic candidates. With the conclusion of today’s South Dakota and Montana primaries, all Americans have had an opportunity to make their voices heard at the ballot box. Now that the nation’s last primary ballot has been cast and an agreement has been reached to seat Michigan’s delegates at the Democratic National Convention, I am proud to pledge my support to Senator Barack Obama’s candidacy for President of the United States.

I am confident that Senator Obama will provide the leadership necessary to improve our economy, protect our Great Lakes, provide health care for all Americans, and put an end to the war in Iraq. I have invited the Senator to campaign with me in northern Michigan and share his vision for change with the people of the First Congressional District.
One issue has been resoundingly clear throughout this primary process: Americans do not want four more years of the same failed policies that have driven our country deeper into debt and tarnished our reputation in the world. Senator Obama will provide the change we need to get our country back on track to prosperity and prominence.”

Missouri

Missouri Democratic Party Vice Chairwoman Yolanda Wheat said:

“This primary season has been truly historic. The Democratic Party has produced two extraordinary candidates, either of whom would make a great president. I strongly believe that now is the time for us as Democrats to unite behind our nominee, Senator Barack Obama. In November we have a chance to make this a better country for our children and our children's children. My respect and admiration for both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama has grown throughout this election process. I am endorsing Senator Barack Obama for President today because I believe that his leadership will bring about the profound change that this great country so rightly deserves. I hope all Democrats, regardless of whom they have supported until this time, will unite behind Senator Obama's vision of hope and
opportunity for all Americans.”

Nevada

Nevada Democratic Party Chair Sam Lieberman said:

“I am proud to endorse Senator Barack Obama for president of the United States.
Sen. Obama knows the challenges we face in the West and will work to stop the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump, create a better water plan and spur the development of renewable energy throughout the West. Together, we will engage multiple generations of Democrats to reform our health care system, end the war in Iraq and put our country’s economy back on track, especially for working families and seniors who need relief. Senator Obama recognizes that our diversity is our strength, and that is key in a rapidly changing state such as Nevada. Sen. Obama will be the catalyst who helps Democrats Win in the West and throughout Nevada.”

Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto said:

“It is now time for the Democratic Party to unite behind one candidate. Through a unified Party we will defeat John McCain in November. I look forward to working with Senator Obama to create positive change for the citizens of Nevada and the United States.”

New Jersey

Congressman Rush Holt said:

“Barack Obama has a remarkable life story, has run a stirring campaign, and has
offered an inspiring vision and an impressive strategy to bring about much-needed change in our nation. His successes in the primaries suggest that we can rise above cynicism and bigotry in America, and I am honored to offer my endorsement and support. Like millions in New Jersey and across the country, I have great hopes for an Obama Administration that will restore people’s faith in their government and strengthen America’s reputation for constructive actions abroad. I look forward to working in Congress with a President who will end our combat involvement in Iraq, invest in education, and enhance the role of science in his Administration and in society at large.”

North Carolina

DNC Member Muriel Offerman said:

“Barack Obama has spoken to America in a way that has drawn so many new voters
who are excited about the real change he will bring to Washington. Now that the
primaries are over, it's time for Democrats to unite in taking on John McCain.”

DNC Member David Parker said:

“Senator Obama’s plans for strengthening America’s economy reflect his insight
and empathy for all the people of this country. In this era of economic and environmental challenge, we are all simply Americans pulling together to strengthen our country– regardless of region, race, gender, wealth or any other qualification. Senator Obama’s leadership at the head of the Democratic ticket will help Democrats in North Carolina, including Kay Hagan, our Democratic candidate for US Senate. I look forward to his campaigning actively in North Carolina during the fall campaign.”

Oklahoma

DNC Member Jay Parmley said:

“The race for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination has been historic. We have had two superbly qualified candidates, unprecedented numbers of newly registered voters and across the board near-record to record turnouts in primaries and caucuses. As an automatic delegate to the 2008 Democratic National Convention, it was always my hope that Democratic voters across America whose votes determine the proportional make up of the pledged delegates to the DNC Convention would select the nominee of our Party. I believe they have done so, even if by the narrowest of margins.

“I will cast my vote at the DNC Convention for Senator Barack Obama. Senator Obama has brought thousands of new people into the political process and his campaign and election will restore people’s confidence in their government.

“Our task as a party is great. Our country is in crisis. Voters have a clear choice in November. Will we end the war in Iraq, fix our ailing economy, and provide much needed quality healthcare to all our citizens? These questions can only be answered affirmatively by electing a Democratic President. The fight for the Democratic nomination has been intense and now comes to a close. Our goal as Democrats is
victory in November and that can only be accomplished if we come together in
support of Senator Obama.”

Oregon

Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury said:

“Senator Obama has the vision and commitment to bring people together. This country needs a lot of repair and Barack Obama will be well-suited to accomplish
that.”

Oregon Democratic Party Vice Chairman Frank Dixon said:

“I am announcing my decision as one of Oregon’s twelve automatic delegates to the Democratic National Convention to support U.S. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois for President of the United Sates.

“I have waited until the end of this race to announce my decision out of respect for Senator Hillary Clinton, her campaign staff and passionate supporters who have made this closely contested primary an historic contest. No primary has drawn this kind of interest and participation from so many voters in so many states.

“In my view both candidates are capable of winning the election and becoming a great President. I can find no compelling reason not to represent the voters of Oregon who overwhelmingly chose Senator Obama. I do find many reasons to help bring this primary contest to a conclusion so that the Democratic Party may now focus on unity and the hard work necessary to elect our federal and state candidates.”

Pennsylvania

DNC Member Ian Murray said:

“I am now, after much thought and consideration, supporting Barack Obama for the
presidency of the United States and will be voting for him at the convention in Denver. I have been a strong supporter of Hillary and Bill Clinton since 1991, having chaired and run Bill Clinton’s 1992 and 1996 campaigns in Erie County. I have continued until this time to endorse with all my heart the candidacy of Hillary Clinton. She has been a true champion of the Democratic ideals that are so important to voters of Northwestern Pennsylvania. It is clear to me though that Barack Obama has the required votes for nomination at the convention in Denver. Barack Obama’s message of change and his positions on health care, the Iraq war, the environment, the economy, and other issues vital to the Democratic Party have resonated with record numbers of voters including young voters, independents, and like-minded Republicans. I have been involved in running campaigns in Northwestern Pennsylvania since 1972, this epic contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has fortified in me the vitality of the Democratic Party and its hopes and vision for our future. I pledge all my support, my heart, and my passion for Barack Obama and will be working night and day in the coming days and weeks to bring the Obama and Clinton camps together and unify in Northwestern Pennsylvania as we begin our quest for that which all our futures and health depend, the election of Barack Obama.”

Virginia

Executive Director of the Virginia AFL-CIO Jim Leaman said:
“After a historical battle through every primary and caucus Senator Obama leads in elected pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. As a previous uncommitted delegate to the Democratic National Convention, I would like to pledge my support to Senator Barack Obama to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. I believe that Senator Obama is the right person, in the right place and at the right time to change politics in Washington from strict partisan warfare to one of jointly solving America’s problems. For me, Senator Barack Obama represents a new generation of leadership that will have to solve our problems in health care, social security, education, the environment, jobs, national security and the economy in the upcoming decade. The time has come to unite as democrats and turn our focus and attention to winning back the White House in November.”

Obama Wins Montana

2008-06-03T21:21:00.001-07:00

The last primary of the Democratic Nomination process goes to Senator Barack Obama, by double digits.

More Endorsements for Obama as South Dakota Closes

2008-06-03T18:31:00.000-07:00

Nine (9) superdelegates announced their endorsement or new endorsement as the South Dakota polls closed.

With this haul, Obama gains 7.5 superdelegates and Clinton loses a net 1.0, for a net gain of 8.5 superdelegates.

According to First Read:

Ed Smith (IL) -- Only Rep. Rahm Emanuel and an unfilled DNC seat remain in Illinois as supers

Frank Dixon (OR) -- DNC Super

Helen Knetzer (KS) -- DNC Super

Rep. Sam Farr (CA)

Mitch Ceasar (FL) -- DNC Super, half-vote

Rachel Binah (CA) -- DNC Super who switched from Clinton to Obama

Karen Hale (UT) -- DNC Super who switched from Clinton to Obama

Rep. Bob Filner (CA) -- Closes the gap in California to a 30-30 split of supers between Clinton and Obama, with 11 remaining.

And according to Ben Smith:

Wyoming superdelegate Cynthia Nunley endorses Senator Clinton

South Dakota Makes Obama the Presumptive Nominee

2008-06-03T18:25:00.000-07:00

Illinois Senator Barack Obama has gained enough pledged delegates in South Dakota to be named the presumptive Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

The South Dakota early returns are in and given the number of pledged delegates that Obama is guaranteed from South Dakota, he has surpassed the 2118 threshold needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

In a state that immortalizes George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Linoln and Theodore Roosevelt on Mount Rushmore, Senator Obama has become the first African-American presidential candidate of a major political party.

Congratulations to Senator Obama, his family and supporters, and the Democratic Party for this historical and powerful nomination.

Respects should also be given to Senator Clinton, her family and supporters for the long, arduous, spirited and tenacious battle for the nomination.

CLINTON MATHEMATICALLY ELIMINATED

2008-06-03T16:02:00.001-07:00

Senator Clinton will gain no more than 17 delegates from tonight's contests in Montana and South Dakota, even if she exceeds expectations.

These 17 pledged delegates added to her total of 1918 will give her 1925 total delegates.

With only 140 unpledged superdelegates remaining, 35 add-on delegates and 1.5 Edwards delegates, there are only 176.5 available delegates for Senator Clinton to gain in some magical 100% sweep of all these delegates.

That gain would still leave her at 2101.5, short 16.5 delegates of the 2118 threshold.

Even if Clinton were to receive the other 14 pledged delegates in the South Dakota/Montana contests, which would require beating Obama with 86% of more of the vote in every district, she would still fall 2.5 delegates short.

That, my friends, is the definition of mathematically eliminated.

Oklahoma Chairman Ivan Holmes for Obama

2008-06-03T15:57:00.001-07:00

Another superdelegate comes out for Obama--this one's the Chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic State Party.

We're now officially in the area where coordination of superdelegates to hold off on announcements is important so that the pledged delegates from South Dakota and Montana push Obama over the top.

Obama Poised to Pull off "Greatest Political Upset in American History"

2008-06-03T15:48:00.000-07:00

Jed Report always has good stuff, and there are two things on the site that I wanted to bring here.

First, this from MSNBC's Chuck Todd. A fascinating perspective on the race as an entirety.

Second, this picture of the Democratic candidates at the beginning of the race. Each filled with hope and optimism. Could you imagine Senator Obama emerging from this pack? Amazing.

Obama Will Gain Five Montana Superdelegates after the Polls Close

2008-06-03T15:38:00.000-07:00

Montana has a large pack of superdelegates waiting to endorse Senator Obama once the polls close tonight:

Governor Brian Schweitzer
Senator Max Baucus
Senator Jon Tester
State Party Chair Dennis McDonald
State Party Vicechair Margaret Campbell

As I wrote earlier, Campbell was known earlier to want to support Obama, but had to back off per Montana State Party rules not allowing an endorsement during a contested election.

Florida Super Glasser for Obama

2008-06-03T15:36:00.000-07:00

I must have missed this one earlier. Florida superdelegate Diane Glasser has endorsed Senator Obama and adds 0.5 delegates to his count.

Two More Supers for Obama Later Today

2008-06-03T15:29:00.000-07:00

According to Ben Smith's blog, two more superdelegates are announcing for Senator Obama:

California congressman Sam Farr
Maryland DNC member Bel Leong-Hong

It sounds like Farr is announcing tonight, while Hong has already announced.

I swear these new announcements went up as I was hitting the "publish" key just now.

Obama is now 12 delegates away from going over the 2118 mark. Expect the superdelegate flood to calm down for now so that Obama can gain the symbolic victory of the South Dakota and Montana elections putting him over the top. I am assuming the Obama campaign can embargo these announcements until tomorrow at this point.

It will be interesting to see which superdelegate announcement was the magic one. I'll go back and look at the announcement times.

Today's Delegate Roundup: Obama + 21, Clinton -2.5

2008-06-03T14:22:00.000-07:00

I'm trying to catch up here, so I'll just put the notes on the superdelegates who have declared so far today here, including the two previous ones (Dawson and Ausman) about whom I wrote just earlier. I already counted Rep. Jim Clyburn in yesterday's news after word spread of his decision to endorse Obama today.

As of 3:20 pm PST:

Clinton: - 2.5 (+ 0.5 minus three defections to Obama)

Obama: +21 (20 superdelegate votes + 1 Edwards pledged delegate)

Obama is 14 delegates away from the nomination, which is in the range of expected gains from Montana and South Dakota today.

Clinton Superdelegates: +0.5

Jon Ausman (FL)
-- DNC Superdelegate and member of the Rules & Bylaws Committee who supports Clinton because Obama already is the winner, so he has the luxury of sending out a "message of unity" to implore an Obama-Clinton ticket.

Obama Superdelegates: +21

Ex-President Jimmy Carter (GA)

-- The Distinguished Party Leader finally made his decision known after months of speculation and signs that he would support Obama.

Congressman John Spratt (SC)

-- He joined with Congressman Clyburn in endorsing Senator Obama today.

Ralph Dawson (NY)

--A member of the DNC who is the last member of the New York superdelegate pool to endorse, save for Party Leader George Mitchell.

Debra S. Kozikowski (MA)

--A member of the Massachussetts DNC, she made her decision known today. Her press statement:

I made a commitment to wait until the end of the primary process and now it is
time to make my choice. Barack Obama has won my support for President. Hillary Clinton ran a great race, I respect her hard work and commitment to the issues I care about, but Senator Obama's message of bringing our country together is in sync with the agenda of building rural-urban partnerships for the good of all of America.
I care about issues facing rural families and businesses, everything from our food supply to the challenges of economic development, and Barack Obama is committed to ensuring that rural residents aren't left behind. All you have to do is compare the websites of John McCain and Barack Obama to see who is the candidate with real ideas to help rural communities. I am committed to delivering Barack Obama’s message of hope and change to voters all across the country and working to convince my fellow superdelegates who have yet to support a candidate to join me in
supporting him.

Congressman John Olver (MA)

--This Massachussetts member of Congress made his decision today after holding out for a long time as a result of his district's split vote for both candidates. An excerpt from the article:

"I think he gave more of a vision where he wanted to go," Olver said, in explaining his ultimate decision to back Obama over U.S. Sen. Hillary R. Clinton, D-N.Y. "Hillary was all about competence and experience," Olver said, but added that he was critical of her vote to allow the U.S. invasion into Iraq and that her experience was largely due to her role as First Lady and not through executive experience.

Joyce Beatty (OH)

--This DNC member from Columbus and Minority Leader of the Ohio state legislature threw her support to Obama today as well, citing her conversation with the Illinois Senator:

"I have spoken to Sen. Obama several times about his ideas for moving our nation past the failed policies of the Bush administration. I like Sen. Obama's stances on issues important to all Americans, and I am proud that an African-American has the trust and the support of people across all cross-sections of our society in this historic campaign. He has brought energy and an excitement to this race that inspires people, and he is the right person for the job."

Jennifer Dechant (ME)

--Citing the support for Obama from the majority of the Maine state convention delegates, Dechant also announced her decision to support Senator Obama.

Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO)

From her statement today:

"This is a year that the mere existence of a single candidate, Barack Obama, has inspired people in my district to believe in the greater good."

Carnelia Pettis-Fondren (MS)

--The Vice Chairwoman for the Mississippi DNC has announced her support for Obama today.

Per the article:

Fondren, an attorney, said Obama is "an equally impressive presidential candidate" and "a dynamic leader who offers a compelling vision for the future of our nation and the state of Mississippi."
"The people of our country have spoken and shown they support Sen. Obama - now it's time for party leaders to unite behind one candidate and head toward victory in November," Fondren said.

John Perez (CA)

--This member of the California DNC and Los Angeles-based labor leader made his decision to support Obama on his belief that Obama would be "the best positioned to lead this party forward."

Of interest is that Perez' cousin is Los Angeles City Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who was an early and prolific supporter of the Clinton campaign.

Congressman Dennis Moore (KS)

--The Kansas Congressman announced his support for Obama today.

The Delaware Three

Harriet Windsor

“As a superdelegate from Delaware, I am representing the people of my state, where Barack Obama won in our primary. Senator Obama is an outstanding candidate who will unify the Democratic Party and be a strong candidate to beat Senator McCain in the November election."

Rhett Ruggiero

--A Delaware DNC superdelegate

John Daniello

--The Delaware Democratic Party Chairman released the following:

“Senator Obama has inspired Democrats across the country over the course of this
primary, and we saw here in Delaware that his appeal will help our candidates up
and down the ballot. As a state party chairman, I know how valuable this contest
has been in energizing the grassroots, and I wanted every state to be able to
participate and reap the benefits of this historic race. Now that all of the
primaries and caucuses are behind us, I believe it’s time for Democrats to unite
in taking on John McCain, and I’m pleased to be joined by Rhett Ruggerio and
Secretary Windsor in endorsing Barack Obama for president.”

The Michigan Five plus One

Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
--Chairwoman of the Black Congressional Caucus

"From his years fighting for the poor on the South Side of Chicago to his proven
commitment to working families in the United States Senate, Barack has proven he
can lift up our nation and put the needs of our families and children first. We
need change in our country today, and we need a leader who will end the war in
Iraq and end the eight years of the failed policies of George W. Bush."

Kwame Kilpatrick
--Mayor of Detroit and DNC superdelegate

"I enthusiastically pledge my support to Senator Barack Obama, who will bring much needed hope, change and leadership to take our country in a new direction. I will work hard to ensure he will be victorious in November.”

Debbie Dingel
--DNC Superdelegate

"Now, as the nominating process comes to an end, it it time to unite behind
Barack Obama, who will be our Democratic nominee for the White House."

Rick Wiener
--DNC Superdelegate

"It is clear that Senator Obama will prevail as our nominee. It is time to unite
the party behind our candidate and close a historic primary season.”

Joyce Lalonde
--DNC Superdelegate

"With his leadership, we will move away from a nation of test bubblers to a nation of highly educated individuals that will return us to global leadership in all areas. I am excited to begin the campaign that brings America to the best that it can be."

Tina Abbott
--State DNC Vicechairwoman and Secretary-Treasurer of state AFL-CIO

Edwards' Delegate Switches

Sharon Nordgren (NH)

--State Representative Nordgren announced today her switch from Edwards to Obama. Nordgren is a pledged delegate and ups Obama's total from the Granite State.

A full list of the Edwards switches to Obama was released earlier today by the Obama campaign:

FLORIDA -- 10
Joseph Beuttenmuller, Lake Mary
Barry Birdwell, Melbourne Beach
E. Alan Brock, Crawfordville
Deborah Courtney, Jacksonville
Rita Ferrandino, Sarasota
Fred McDowell, Leesburg
Mary Mooney, Crawfordville
Linda Spisak, Hobe Sound
Gregory Shimkaveg, Oviedo
Bill Vincent, Gulf Breeze

IOWA -- 4
Machelle Crum, Newton
Arlene Prather-Kane, Cedar Falls
David Relawsk, Iowa City
Merci Wolff, Sioux City

SOUTH CAROLINA -- 8
Lauren Bilton, Columbia
Daniel Boan, Kershaw
Christine Brennan-Bond, Moore
Michael Evatt, Seneca (birthplace of Senator Edwards)
Robert Groce, Summerville
Marilyn Hemingway, Georgetown
Tim Moore, Barnwell
Susan Smith, Pawley’s Island

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 4
Deborah Bacon-Nelson, Hanover
Senator Peter Burling, Cornish
Rep. Sharon Nordgren, Hanover
Joshua Denton, Portsmouth

This makes a total of 26 pledged delegates worth 21 pledged delegate votes at the Convention (Florida pledged delegates are worth 0.5 votes) that have switched from Edwards to Obama.

These 21 pledged delegates represent a net gain for Obama (via switch) larger than most primaries afforded--more on this to come in a separate post.

Clinton Defections to Obama

Congresswoman Maxine Waters (CA)

--The California Congresswoman was a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton, but made her decision today to switch to Obama.

“Senator Hillary Clinton has run a superb campaign and has proven to be a hard worker while gaining the support of many key constituencies that will be essential for Democratic success in November. Despite that, Senator Obama’s delegate numbers more than describe the enthusiasm for his candidacy and I believe that by the end of the day, he will have the necessary numbers to become the Democratic Party nominee for President."
“It is now time to close ranks and time for all remaining delegates to put their support behind the presumptive nominee, Senator Obama. Senator Obama has run an effective campaign and has overcome many obstacles to create an energy that has brought many new Democrats into the party. Together, both of these candidates have generated an unprecedented involvement in Democratic Party politics. This is something that all Democrats can be proud of."

Kamil Hasan (CA)

--The California DNC superdelegate made the announcement of the switch from Clinton to Obama in the following press release:

"I am endorsing Senator Obama as Democratic Party’s nominee not only because he
has clearly won more pledged delegates, but I sincerely believe that he can provide the necessary leadership in taking this country in a new direction at this critical juncture in our history. Fortunately, we have had two excellent candidates. I have great admiration for Senator Clinton and the way she has run a spirited, high energy, issues based campaign.
I am looking forward to continue to energize the Indo-American and the South-Asian communities in ensuring that Senator Obama becomes the next President of the United States. His election as the President of the United States will not only help unite a very divided nation, but elevate the image of the United States in the world to a level not seen since John Kennedy was the President."

Ben Johnson (DC)

--A District of Columbia superdelegate finally makes his switch known today:

"It’s time to close ranks behind Barack Obama, who has run an outstanding campaign and made many of us proud. This is no way diminishes my respect and
admiration for Senator Clinton, who is a fine public servant who I have known for many years. But it is clear that Senator Obama has the momentum needed to help us win in November and I am proud to endorse him today."

Senator Clinton gains a Florida Super

2008-06-03T14:08:00.000-07:00

More from Ben Smith:

In a strange move, Florida superdelegate Jon Ausman, who played a key role in forging the Florida and Michigan compromises in last weekend's Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting that spurned Clinton's demands, declared his support for Clinton.

Not because he feels Clinton is the best candidate, mind you. No, Ausman decided to endorse Clinton because he wants to "send a message that he [Obama] needs to unify our party." Huh?

Ausman didn't make this choice while he felt his endorsement could make an impact, however. Instead, he waited until he heard that Obama had enough votes to put him over the top, so that such a move would be purely symbolic.

Interesting. Score 0.5 delegates for Clinton, but it sounds like Ausman will vote for Obama at the Convention, so I'm not sure exactly how you score this one!

Obama Breaks Clinton Stanglehold on NY Supers

2008-06-03T13:59:00.000-07:00

On the day when he is expected to win the Democratic Nomination, Senator Obama gained a major symbolic endorsement from a New York superdelegate, Ralph Dawson.

Dawson had been the subject of speculation earlier in the campaign based on his desire to remain uncommitted despite having been reported to have given $1000 to the Obama campaign, and an undisclosed amount to the Clinton campaign as well.

Of the 46 automatic superdelegates and 3 add-on delegates from Senator Clinton's base of power, New York, all but 3 have endorsed their home Senator. Dawson becomes the second Obama supporter from this huge group, with only Party Leader George Mitchell remaining on the sidelines.

Compare this total to the 31 total (28 automatic, 3 add-on) superdelegates from Illinois, of which 28 have endorsed Obama, none for Clinton, and three undeclared still.

Just a side note to a long campaign in which each candidate had his or her own base of power--in this case Illinois proved more monolithic and stronger than New York, despite previous conventional wisdom.

Excellent Article about Clinton, Obama Primary Strategies

2008-06-03T00:01:00.000-07:00

Reprinted in full:

Obama Advantage Grew From Long-Term Plan
While Clinton Hinged Strategy On Early Knockout, Obama Sought Delegates All Through Process

(AP) Unlike Hillary Rodham Clinton, rival Barack Obama planned for the long haul. Clinton hinged her whole campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama's staff researched congressional districts in states with primaries that were months away.

What they found were opportunities to win delegates, even in states they would eventually lose.

Obama's campaign mastered some of the most arcane rules in politics, and then used them to foil a front-runner who seemed to have every advantage - money, fame and a husband who had essentially run the Democratic Party for eight years as president.

"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."

Careful planning is one reason why Obama is emerging as the nominee as the Democratic Party prepares for its final three primaries, Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Attributing his success only to soaring speeches and prodigious fundraising ignores a critical part of contest. Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried.

Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries. In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake.

Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey. The research effort was headed by Jeffrey Berman, Obama's press-shy national director of delegate operations. Berman, who also tracked delegates in former Rep. Dick Gephardt's presidential bids, spent the better part of 2007 analyzing delegate opportunities for Obama. "The whole Clinton campaign thought this would be like previous campaigns, a battle of momentum," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "They thought she would be the only one would who could compete in such a momentous event as Super Tuesday."

Instead, Obama won a majority of the 23 Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5 and then spent the following two weeks racking up 11 straight victories, building an insurmountable lead among delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

What made it especially hard for Clinton to catch up was that Obama understood and took advantage of a nominating system that emerged from the 1970s and '80s, when the party struggled to find a balance between party insiders and its rank-and-file voters. Until the 1970s, the nominating process was controlled by party leaders, with ordinary citizens having little say. There were primaries and caucuses, but the delegates were often chosen behind closed doors, sometimes a full year before the national convention. That culminated in a 1968 national convention that didn't reflect the diversity of the party - racially or ideologically. The fiasco of the 1968 convention in Chicago, where police battled anti-war protesters in the streets, led to calls for a more inclusive process.

One big change was awarding delegates proportionally, meaning you can finish second or third in a primary and still win delegates to the party's national convention. As long as candidates get at least 15 percent of the vote, they are eligible for delegates.

The system enables strong second-place candidates to stay competitive and extend the race - as long as they don't run out of campaign money. "For people who want a campaign to end quickly, proportional allocation is a bad system," Devine said. "For people who want a system that is fair and reflective of the voters, it's a much better system."

Another big change was the introduction of superdelegates, the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can vote for whomever they choose regardless of what happens in the primaries and caucuses.

Superdelegates were first seated at the 1984 convention. Much has been made of them this year because neither Obama nor Clinton can reach the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination without their support.

A more subtle change was the distribution of delegates within each state. As part of the proportional system, Democrats award delegates based on statewide vote totals as well as results in individual congressional districts. The delegates, however, are not distributed evenly within a state, like they are in the Republican system. Under Democratic rules, congressional districts with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates are rewarded with more delegates than districts that are more Republican.

Some districts packed with Democratic voters can have as many as eight or nine delegates up for grabs, while more Republican districts in the same state have three or four. The system is designed to benefit candidates who do well among loyal Democratic constituencies, and none is more loyal than black voters. Obama, who would be the first black candidate nominated by a major political party, has been winning 80 percent to 90 percent of the black vote in most primaries, according to exit polls. "Black districts always have a large number of delegates because they are the highest performers for the Democratic Party," said Elaine Kamarck, a Harvard University professor who is writing a book about the Democratic nominating process. "Once you had a black candidate you knew that he would be winning large numbers of delegates because of this phenomenon," said Kamarck, who is also a superdelegate supporting Clinton.

In states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Clinton won the statewide vote but Obama won enough delegates to limit her gains. In states Obama carried, like Georgia and Virginia, he maximized the number of delegates he won. "The Obama campaign was very good at targeting districts in areas where they could do well," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a Clinton superdelegate from South Carolina. "They were very conscious and aware of these nuances."

But, Fowler noted, the best strategy in the world would have been useless without the right candidate. "If that same strategy and that same effort had been used with a different candidate, a less charismatic candidate, a less attractive candidate, it wouldn't have worked," Fowler said. "The reason they look so good is because Obama was so good."

©MMVIII, The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Remember Margaret Campbell?

2008-06-02T23:53:00.000-07:00

She was the Montana DNC Superdelegate who endorsed Obama but then had to retract her endorsement citing State Party rules that do not allow such endorsements during a contested primary.

Senator Obama is favored in the Montana contest. Once that contest goes official tomorrow night, it is expected that Campbell will finally be able to make her announcement publicly.

Chuck Todd Does It Again -- Excellent Analysis

2008-06-02T23:22:00.000-07:00

This covers a lot of what I've posted today, but he does it so well.

39.5 Delegates to Go -- Who Will Put Obama Over the Top?

2008-06-02T17:27:00.000-07:00

Assuming Obama gains 16 of the 31 pledged delegates available tomorrow in Montana and South Dakota, he willonly need 23.5 or 24 automatic delegates to decide for him before the polls close in both of these states to declare himself the victor of the Democratic Primary and the presumptive nominee later tomorrow night.

Where might those 24 automatic delegates be found?

Congressman Jim Clyburn will be one of the 24, so Obama will need 23.

17 could come from the US Senators currently undeclared for either candidate. According to this article, two of the undeclared Senators, Harkin and Salazar (note: Iowa and Colorado are major swing states that lean Obama) are trying to forge a coalition among the remaining undeclared Senators to announce at the same time for Senator Obama.

Another undeclared superdelegate, US Congressman Jason Altmire, confirms that Obama is working to secure enough superdelegates to come out tomorrow to push him over the top, also.

"Senator Obama is trying to line up people that are going to come out for him
tomorrow during the day so that he'll have enough that puts him over the top
that he can declare victory tomorrow," said Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire, one
of about 200 superdelegates under pressure to take a side in the contest.

"He apparently is telling people that he has the numbers, and that's what's going to
happen, at which point it would become moot what the rest of us do," said
Altmire, who added that he will wait until after the final votes and make a
decision by week's end.

A previous report that a large chunk of California superdelegates currently committed to Clinton could switch to Obama at the end of the primary calendar also holds hope for Obama to gain the superdelegates necessary to declare victory, according to this May 5, 2008 LA Times article.

Finally, Chuck Todd at MSNBC's First Read reports that there may be a host of House Representative Superdelegates endorsing Obama en masse tomorrow as well, perhaps as many as 34.

Buzz on the Capitol Hill suggests that has many as 34 of the undeclared superdelegates residing in the House will endorse Obama by Wednesday.
As many as 18 of these 34 -- many of them elected to Congress in the last four years -- will come out for Obama tomorrow so he can edge closer to his magic number
before the vote counting ends in South Dakota and Montana.
The biggest Obama get in the House to date will come tomorrow when House Dem Caucus Chairman Jim Clyburn officially declares. No other member of the Dem leadership is expected to endorse Obama while Clinton is still running.

Finally, several superdelegates took the "Pelosi Pledge" to support the pledged delegate winner at the end of the primary season. There are six members of this club, including Maria Cantwell, a Washington Senator who is a Clinton backer currently, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, her daughter, and former President Jimmy Carter.

It will be interesting to see which superdelegate "officially" puts Obama over the top.

Could it be a symbolic vote from a Party Elder like Al Gore?

Perhaps a current Democratic Leader like a Nancy Pelosi? Or Harry Reid? Or Howard Dean? Chuck Todd doesn't think so, but didn't Pelosi take her "pledge"? When will she act on that pledge?

What about a former President--Jimmy Carter? He's a member of the Pelosi Club as well.

Or could it be just the luck of the draw?

If the Obama campaign could script this perfectly, they would receive the endorsement of a working-class, white, middle-aged woman to put him over the top. How about Ohio Congresswoman Marcia Kaptur?

I like that one.

A Washington State Super for Obama

2008-06-02T17:22:00.001-07:00

David McDonald, a Washington DNC member, has announced his support for Senator Obama today.

Of interest is that McDonald was one of the 30-member DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee that decided the fate of Michigan and Florida this past Saturday. McDonald pledged to be neutral until after that decision was made.

The Curious Case of Kevin Rodriguez -- A Clinton Plant?

2008-06-02T16:08:00.001-07:00

When Kevin Rodriguez (Virgin Islands) initially switched his superdelegate endorsement from Senator Clinton to Senator Obama, there was hardly an arched eyebrow, as the Virgin Islands handed Senator Clinton the worst defeat (89.9% - 7.6%) in the primary season and actually held her under the viability threshold of 15%, thus giving Obama all 3 of the Virgin Islands' pledged delegates.

Rodriguez' switch seemed to follow along with the three other Virgin Islands superdelegates that had endorsed Obama, including Carole Burke on the same day.

Then came word that Rodriguez had switched back suddenly to Senator Clinton's column. This development was met with suspicion and surprise, as Rodriguez had given not more than two weeks prior a glowing reason for his switch from Clinton to Obama.

While I have great respect for Senator Clinton, today I am announcing my support
for Barack Obama. Senator Obama has brought a new generation and energy
into the democratic process and the Democratic Party.
He has shown he can connect with Democrats, Republicans and Independents across this country, whether we live on the mainland or an island. Senator Obama’s judgment to lead, courage to tell the truth and commitment to working men and women make him the best candidate to lead this country forward.

When asked at the time why he switched back, Rodriguez could only offer the following, according to the Associated Press:

"I decided to switch because that's my right," he told The Associated Press on
Wednesday. "I don't want to say why I decided. It's not about me ... It's about
America and what's best for America."

Rodriguez' switch triggered concern from the Virgin Islands DNC Chair Cecil Benjamin at the time, who offered his thoughts on why the double-switch might have occurred:

"At this desperate crunch time, anything should be expected, especially when political persuasions, promises and offers are made," said Cecil Benjamin,
adding that he had no proof that Rodriquez was being pressured to change his
vote.
"I'm disappointed," he said. "I believe that we must stand by our convictions."

Now comes word that Senator Clinton is making an aggressive pitch that she will not only court undeclared superdelegates, but also superdelegates committed to Senator Obama. So far 13 superdelegates have switch from Clinton to Obama, while only one--Rodriguez--has switched from Obama to Clinton (although technically Rodriguez was a double-switch).

The case for superdelegates switching their mind has already been made 14 times now--the trick is for Clinton to get those switches to be from Obama to her campaign.

Surprise, surprise.

The poster child that Senator Clinton is showing off as an 'example' of such a switch is the very Kevin Rodriguez whose double-switch left plenty of puzzled and skeptical friends and colleagues.

“One thing about superdelegates is they can change their minds,” Clinton told a gaggle of reporters in the aisle of the plane. “With us in the front of the cabin is a superdelegate who went from me to Sen. Obama and now is back with me, in the course of, you know, a matter of weeks.”
A campaign spokeswoman later informed the cabin that the superdelegate she was referring to is Kevin Rodriguez, a DNC member from the Virgin Islands, who was accompanying her on the flight from San Juan. The campaign had previously announced his support. “I think it’s only now that we’re finishing these contests that people are going to actually reflect on who is our stronger candidate. And I believe I am. And I’m going to make that case,” Clinton said.

I hate to be cynical, but let's get real.

Kevin Rodriguez supported Clinton in March, after the Virgin Islands had already voted on February 9th by a near 90%-8% margin for Senator Obama. Rodriguez was not afraid then to stand against his constituents and colleagues in the Virgin Islands DNC and support Clinton over Obama.

Then we get into May, and Senator Clinton starts to realize that her only chance of victory is to start a superdelegate defection flood from Obama to her campaign.

Suddenly this stalwart supporter (and might we add, insulated from mainland politics and pressure and accountability) chooses to endorse Obama glowingly in May, and then two weeks later when Clinton desperately needs someone, anyone, to be her example of a superdelegate switching from Obama to Clinton...Rodriguez suddenly defects again!?

Rodriguez gets Class-A treatment from the Clinton campaign, is paraded along the campaign, flown around everywhere, and all he has to do is stand there as the lone example of a Obama defection.

When he was never an Obama supporter to begin with, but rather a Clinton supporter for all but two weeks of his time as a declared superdelegate?

This smells like a set-up.

And it is not beyond the Clintons to plant a loyal superdelegate into the Obama camp just to create a "defection" that they can then use as a Hail Mary representation of how superdelegates might switch from Obama to Clinton after the primary season is over.

This wouldn't be the first time the Clinton campaign has tried to "plant" someone to make them look better and drive the conversation, as this article and this article demonstrate.

Unfortunately for Clinton, this defection she is using for her example shows how desperate her position is, because Rodriguez carries zero credibility among the superdelegates as a whole, particularly among the elected officials already supporting Obama.

No elected official is going to pick Obama, and then defect to Clinton, and risk being alienated from the incoming Administration if Obama as the presumptive nominee is elected.

If Clinton could show off someone like a Joe Andrew, perhaps, who as a former DNC National Chairman and fervent commitment that might have some weight behind it.

But not someone like Rodriguez who clearly comes off as tainted and bought for his double-switcheroo.

Automatic Superdelegates Not Enough for Clinton to Win

2008-06-02T15:35:00.001-07:00

Lost among the mainstream media's analysis of the delegate counts is this simple fact:

Even after giving Senator Clinton a generous 16 of 31 pledged delegates from the remaining two contests (which means she'd have to tie Montana and win South Dakota somehow), she will have 1934 total delegates, leaving her 184 total delegates shy of the 2118 magic number.

There are only 166 automatic superdelegates remaining. These automatic delegates are the elected members of Congress, DNC loyalists and Party Distinguished Leaders that are rewarded with votes at the convention.

As you are sure to note, 166 is 18 less than 184, which Clinton needs for the nomination.

Without getting into the messy process of gaining defections from Senator Obama's superdelegate totals or peeling off hyper-loyal pledged delegates from Senator Obama, there are only two other pools of delegates available for Senator Clinton to find the remaining 18 delegates needed to get to 2118--assuming she (in a near-impossible scenario) somehow gains every single one of the 166 undeclared automatic delegates!!

The first pool is the add-on delegate pool. There currently are 35 add-on delegates that are unaligned: 30 unnamed (until the remaining state conventions are held) and 5 named but undeclared.

In this post I show that even of the 30 yet to be named, Senator Obama has a very good chance of gaining 20 of these add-on delegates. The chances of Senator Clinton going into Obama strongholds like North Carolina, Wisconsin, Iowa or even Nebraska and getting Obama's state delegates or Obama-friendly state chairs to give a Clinton supporter the add-on spot are slim to none.

Obama is guaranteed about 19 of these add-on delegates, and could walk away with 1-2 of the Texas add-on delegates, considering he won the state delegate fight.

So let's say Senator Clinton manages to gain 10 add-on delegates here. This scenario still leaves her 8 delegates short of the 2118 magic number.

Where to look? Two options remain.

First, there are five undeclared add-on delegates already named that need to decide. They are from Tennessee, Missouri, Nevada, Florida (2 x 0.5) and Arizona. Senator Clinton won Tennessee, Arizona and Florida, split Nevada and lost Missouri by a tiny margin. It is conceivable that she captures all five add-on delegates from this pool, so to be charitable we'll count these as eventual Clinton add-on delegates.

With these five in tow, Clinton is still short 3.5 total delegates from the nomination, even after getting every single automatic delegate and the most favorable add-on delegate split possible.

The last place to look? The Edwards' pledged delegate collection: the 8 pledged delegates amassed from Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina that have yet to declare a switch to either Obama or Clinton.

So far Obama has taken 16.5 of Edwards' 24.5 pledged delegates (Iowa-8, New Hampshire-4, South Carolina-8, Florida-6.5), and Clinton none. That leaves 8 left to be claimed, with Edwards already having endorsed Obama.

Senator Clinton would need to peel off 3 of these 8 Edwards' delegates in order to reach 2118, finally.

Conclusion:

Let's recap.

Clinton needs

Every single undeclared automatic delegate (including Pelosi, Reed, Clyburn, etc.)
Every single add-on delegate possible (15 of 35)
3 of 8 Edwards delegates
no more defections from her superdelegate or pledged delegate total

Mathematically, she is still alive. Mathematically.

How much would you be willing to be that Clinton won't be the nominee?

The Future and Impact of the Remaining Add-On Delegates

2008-06-02T15:14:00.000-07:00

As of today, there are officially 78.5 add-on superdelegates who will be voting at the Democratic National Convention.

Florida (3) and Michigan (2) had five add-on delegates between them, but as a result of the Rules and Bylaws Committee action on Saturday, these add-on delegates are halved as are the pledged and automatic delegates for each of these sanctioned states.

The 2.5 add-on delegates from Florida and Michigan combined add to the previous total of 76 for the other states (and DC and Puerto Rico), making the official number of add-on delegates 78.5.

So far 48.5 of these add-on delegates have been named, with 26.5 selecting Senator Obama, 17 selecting Senator Clinton, and 5 remaining undeclared (Tennessee, Florida--2*0.5, Arizona, Nevada and Missouri).

There remain 30 add-on delegates that have yet to be named, and thus yet to declare.

Of these add-on delegates, the only ones that are pre-committed to a candidate are the two half-delegates for Michigan, which will be guaranteed to Senator Obama once Michigan holds its state convention.

These 30 come from the following states, sorted by winner in the primary season (one per state, unless otherwise denoted):

OBAMA

Minnesota (2)
Vermont
Mississippi
Wisconsin (2)
Idaho
Iowa
Michigan (2 0.5 delegates) --by RBC decision
Virginia (2)
Washington (2)
North Carolina (2)
Oregon
Nebraska

CLINTON

Kentucky
Pennsylvania (3)
West Virginia
Rhode Island
Indiana
Puerto Rico

SPLIT

Texas (3)

TBD

Montana
South Dakota

If add-on delegates go to form (i.e. to the victor of the state), Senator Obama will pick up 19 (if Montana and South Dakota go as expected), Senator Clinton will gain 8, and they will split the 3 from Texas in some manner.

Keep in mind the State Chair (and his DNC superdelegate wife) both announced for Obama recently.

Let's say Obama gains 20 from these remaining add-on delegates (which is a pretty safe bet).

Add these 20 to the 16 pledged delegates he is expected to gain from South Dakota/Montana, plus the remaining 8 Edwards delegates, and you have 44 total delegates for Obama, which exceeds the number (41.5) of total delegates he needs to clinch the nomination.

It will be interesting to see how these add-on delegates are selected after a decision is made by the Clinton Campaign after tomorrow. If she drops out, it is likely that the add-on delegates will become ceremonious in nature and may be picked for Obama as an olive branch.

As we've discussed from the beginning on this site, the add-on delegates were always a separate contest from the automatic superdelegates, and should always have been treated as such. At this point, the only way Senator Clinton can possibly win the nomination is to win defections from Obama's superdelegate ranks, or to steal add-on delegates from him in states in which he won heavily.

She cannot win the nomination by the remaining automatic delegates remaining, alone.

Congressman Clyburn Endorses Obama (unofficially)

2008-06-02T15:08:00.000-07:00

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn will officially endorse Senator Barack Obama tomorrow during the day.

For now this endorsement is unofficial. However, Rep. Clyburn has already begun calling uncommitted automatic delegates to get them to support Obama and get behind the presumptive nominee.

Rep. Clyburn is considered one of the most powerful voices in Washington and within the Democratic Party. He has been in the news during the primary campaign with calls for Bill Clinton to "chill" when the ex-President was embroiled in race-baiting allegations, and also when Senator Clinton made her RFK assassination comments just two weeks ago.

The Clinton Matrix before Florida/Michigan Compromise

2008-06-02T14:01:00.000-07:00

This was the Clinton Matrix as of Saturday, just before the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee took action on the Florida and Michigan issues. As you can see, before the magic number was expanded to 2118, Senator Clinton had effectively run out of any realistic mathematical ability to gain the nomination.

I will re-vamp the Matrix so that it reflects the current state of affairs, using the same axes of pledged delegates and add-on delegates. After tomorrow, there will be no more pledged delegates left, save Edwards' 6.5.

Superdelegate Endorsements for June 2, 2008

2008-06-02T13:44:00.000-07:00

I will just link to Demconwatch for these announcements...it's much easier.

Obama gains 3.5 automatic delegates, Clinton gains 2.0.

Obama: 3.5

Connecticut State Chair Nancy DiNardo (1.0)
Virginia DNC Member Jerome Wiley Segovia (1.0)
Michigan DNC Member Brenda Lawrence (0.5)
Michigan DNC Member Lu Battaglieri (0.5)
Florida DNC Member Janee Murphy (0.5)

Clinton: 2.0

Louisiana State Chair Chris Wittington (1.0)
New York DNC Member Irene Stein (1.0)

Nevada Super Declares for Obama

2008-06-02T13:40:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, Yvonne Gates, a Nevada automatic superdelegate and a member of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, endorsed Senator Obama.

Clinton Wins Puerto Rico, Nets 21 Pledged Delegates

2008-06-01T16:51:00.000-07:00

Senator Clinton scored a nice win in Puerto Rico, winning the commonwealth by a 68% -- 32% margin, taking 38 of 55 pledged delegates and winning about 140,000 more votes than Senator Obama.

This makes the new counts as follows:

Obama:

1729 Pledged + 16.5 Edwards + 330.5 Superdelegates = 2076 TOTAL DELEGATES

42 total delegates from the 2,118 "magic number" to clinch the nomination.

Clinton:

1625 Pledged + 293.5 Superdelegates = 1918.5 TOTAL DELEGATES

199.5 total delegates from the 2,118 "magic number" to clinch the nomination.

Obama Wins Maine Add-On Delegate

2008-06-01T16:47:00.000-07:00

As expected, Senator Barack Obama was awarded the add-on delegate for Maine at the state convention today.

Gwethalyn Phillips was selected as the unpledged add-on, but her status as a fervent Obama supporter was rewarded with this selection to guarantee a favorable delegate for the Illinois Senator.

Democratic Rules & Bylaws Committee Reaches Compromise on Michigan and Florida

2008-05-31T16:11:00.000-07:00

Here is the latest from today's epic DNC RBC meeting:

MICHIGAN:

Previously:

Michigan had 128 pledged delegates, 28 automatic delegates and 2 add-on delegates for a total of 158 total delegates.

As a result of the January Primary, Senator Clinton would have received 73 pledged delegates and "uncommitted" would have received 55 pledged delegates.

As of today, Senator Clinton had received the endorsement of eight (8) automatic delegates and Senator Obama had received the endorsement of five (5) automatic delegates. The two add-on delegates will be announced on June 14th, 2008.

Results:

All total delegates from Michigan will be halved. There are now 128 pledged delegates casting 64 votes at the Convention, 28 automatic delegates casting 14 votes at the Convention, and 2 add-on delegates casting 1 vote at the Convention.
Senator Clinton received 69 of the 128 pledged delegates; Senator Obama received 59 of the 128 pledged delegates.
The effective pledged delegate votes for each candidate: Clinton 34.5, Obama 29.5
Senator Obama is guaranteed the state's two add-on delegates with half-vote each.

Including the automatic delegates already declared and the future add-on delegate guarantee, as a result of today's actions,

Senator Clinton gains 38.5 total delegate votes (34.5 pledged, 4.0 automatic)

Senator Obama gains 33 total delegate votes (29.5 pledged, 2.5 automatic, 1.0 add-on)

The Clinton campaign nets a +5.5 total of delegates today from the State of Michigan.

The Obama campaign is hardly damaged by this result and removes the most dangerous contentious point of the campaign from the Clinton arsenal, ending the possibility of an ugly floor fight at the convention.

FLORIDA:

Previously:

Florida had 185 pledged delegates, 23 automatic delegates and 3 add-on delegates for a total of 211 total delegates.

As a result of the January primary, Senator Clinton received 105 pledged delegates, Senator Obama received 67 pledged delegates and John Edwards received 13 pledged delegates.

As of today, Senator Clinton has received the endorsement of 8 automatic delegates, and Senator Obama has received the support of 4 automatic delegates. Of the three add-on delegates allocated on April 5th, Senator Obama received one add-on delegate and Senator Clinton zero, with two remaining uncommitted.

Results:

All total delegates from Florida will be halved and seated as a result of the January Primary.
There are now a total of 185 pledged delegates casting 92.5 votes at the convention, 23 automatic delegates casting 11.5 votes at the convention, and 3 add-on delegates casting 1.5 votes at the convention, for a total of 105.5 votes at the convention.
Senator Clinton's 105 pledged delegates will cast 52.5 votes, Senator Obama's 67 pledged delegates will cast 33.5 votes, and Edwards' 13 pledged delegates will cast 6.5 votes.
The effective pledged delegate vote for each candidate: Clinton 52.5, Obama 33.5, Edwards 6.5.

Senator Clinton picks up 56.5 total delegates (52.5 pledged, 4.0 automatic, 0.0 add-on)

Senator Obama picks up of 36 total delegates (33.5 pledged, 2.0 automatic and 0.5 add-on)

John Edwards picks up 6.5 pledged delegates.

However, 9 of Edwards 13 pledged delegates (now 4.5 of 6.5) have already pledged to go with Obama.

Obama's pick up is now 40.5 total delegates (38 pledged, 2.0 automatic, 0.5 add-on) and Edwards' pick up is now 2.5 pledged delegates

There remain 11 automatic delegates and 2 add-on delegates with 6.5 votes total among them from the State of Florida.

UBER RESULTS

The new number of total delegate votes at the convention is 4235.5 (4051 previously + 184.5 Michigan/Florida).

The new magic number to clinch the nomination is 2118.

The new number of pledged delegates is now 3409.5 (3253 previously + 156.5 Michigan/Florida)

The new magic number to clinch the pledged delegate majority is 1705.

With the addition of the Michigan and Florida delegates pledged and committed, Senator Obama currently has the following:

PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1728.5

1661 before today + 67.5 today (29.5 MI / 33.5FL / 4.5 Edwards) = 1728.5 pledged delegates.

With 1705 the new pledged delegate majority, Senator Obama still secures this pledged delegate majority metric.

SUPERDELEGATES (Automatic + Add-on): 329.5

323.5 before today + 6 today (3.5 MI / 2.5 FL) = 329.5 superdelegates (303 automatic + 26.5 add-on)

TOTAL DELEGATES: 2058

OBAMA needs 60 more total delegates to secure the nomination.

With a lock on at least 40 pledged delegates in South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico, Senator Obama will likely need 20 more automatic and add-on delegates to wrap up the nomination.

The numbers for Senator Clinton:

PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1587

1500 before today + 87 today = 1587 pledged

SUPERDELEGATES: 293.5

284.5 before today + 1 gained today + 8 MI/FL = 293.5 superdelegates (276.5 automatic + 17 add-on).

TOTAL DELEGATES: 1880.5

Senator Clinton needs 229.5 total delegates to secure the nomination.

What I Don't Get about This DNC Rules Committee and Michigan

2008-05-31T11:58:00.000-07:00

The main argument from the Clinton campaign seems to be that the votes of Michigan and Florida need to be respected as they were cast on election day, never mind the voters that cast write-in ballots, and never mind the voting-eligible public that stayed home because they were informed that the Michigan election would be invalidated.

The Clinton camp is twisting logic, though. They want not only to have the entire vote from that day counted, but also the delegates attached to them.

The delegates are entirely separate from the vote. If Michigan was given 10 delegates, 100 delegates or 1000 delegates from their election, the breakdown of those delegates would be based on the vote breakdown. The number of delegates given to Michigan by the DNC is not sacred. However, the Clinton camp is using an implicit argument that there is a delegate to vote metric in play that should be honored. This implicit argument wants to use the popular vote measure as the sacred rule, then transfer that immutability to the delegate count as well, which obviously is not.

The number of delegates has nothing to do with the number of people voting. I showed this earlier with the contrast between Indiana and Missouri, in which 423,000 more people came out to vote in Indiana than in Missouri, but both states only got 72 delegates.

If the Clinton campaign is so interested in counting every vote, then the compromise is easy. Michigan's 128 pledged delegates should be halved to 64 pledged delegates, and those 64 delegates should be apportioned based on the vote in Michigan, so long as the uncommitted vote is dealt to Obama.

This would create a 36.5 - 27.5 split of pledged delegates, but still honor the votes that were counted.

What to do with the superdelegates? Halve their vote. The Clinton argument for using the actual vote from January to seat the pledged delegates does not transfer to the undemocratically selected superdelegates, who have seats based on political standing. Senator Clinton would have a tough time arguing that the spirit of democracry she is pursuing for the pledged delegates based on the actual vote applies to the backroom superdelegates.

Conclusion:

Give Michigan 64 full pledged delegates to allocated based on the vote of the day, thus preserving the spirit of the vote and the voters' "intent", no matter how flawed or incomplete that metric is.

Give Michigan 30 half-votes for its 30 superdelegates (28 automatic delegates + 2 add-on delegates), for 15 superdelegate votes.

Michigan's delegation would then be 79 total delegates: 64 whole pledged delegates and 15 (30 half-counted) superdelegates.

Simple, and it honors the Clinton "argument" about the will of the voter and the DNC Rules committee argument that the state, and not the voters, should be punished for its blatant disrespect of the DNC primary process. The right to vote will be honored, but there is no constitutional or sacred right that the delegates apportioned in the state should be kept the same by the very rules-maker that has the right to make the rules as the party sees fit.

Sophistry, Narcissism, Appeasement and the Clintons

2008-05-30T14:10:00.000-07:00

While reading a Dick Morris article today ("The Clintons Just Have to Win") I was struck by how perfectly the term "sophistry" describes the Clintons' arguments which are oftentimes circular, relative and contradictory, designed solely to achieve an end, instead of promoting truth or wisdom.

Sophistry and sophistication both derive from the same Greek root Sophia or Sophos, both of which mean "wisdom" or "wise". However, both words now have a entirely different connotation--sophistry is derogatory and implies a devious, disingenuous or knowingly insincere form of argument to achieve some ends, while sophistication is complimentary and denotes a sense of culture and knowledge and advanced understanding.

Wikipedia offers a pretty good account of the evolution of the term "sophism" and "sophistry", detailing how the practice of the Sophists in ancient Greece turned into something detached from the true virtue of wisdom and knowledge, and into something more sinister:

Plato is largely responsible for the modern view of the "sophist" as a greedy instructor who uses rhetorical sleight-of-hand and ambiguities of language in order to deceive, or to support fallacious reasoning. In this view, the sophist is not concerned with truth and justice, but instead seeks power. Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle all challenged the philosophical foundations of sophism.

Ambiguities of language? "It depends on what the meaning of is is."

Rhetorical sleight of hand? "Even Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in 1984 and 1988." See this Daily Show clip to examine the ridiculousness of that argument:

Supporting Fallacious Reasoning? Hillary Clinton needs every single automatic superdelegate, add-on delegate and all six Edwards pledged delegates to reach the magic number of 2025.5 at this point in the campaign, yet she still has a "chance to win" if she can just get votes cast in Puerto Rico and South Dakota.

This campaign has shown plenty more examples of such sophistry to push a point on behalf of Senator Clinton's campaign:

From "We all know this election is not going to count for anything" to "Seat the Michigan/Florida delegation as is based on the election in those states".
Pushing a popular vote argument when the election is decided by delegates, after each state made a decision on their form of election with the implicit understanding that popular vote was not important
Arguing that caucus states are undemocratic when it was those very caucus states that helped give Bill Clinton the Democratic Nomination in 1992, and when no argument was made about them until she lost Iowa and other caucuses.
Embracing the "every vote must count" mantle despite openly campaiging to win the nomination by Super Tuesday and thus "disenfranchise" all states afterwards like Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina.
Telling the public that if they want a candidate that didn't vote for the Iraq war, they should vote for someone else, and then complaining that her lack of voter support is sexist when the voting public decides that they want an anti-war candidate for the Democratic nomination.
Claiming that her winning a state in the primary means that she will win it in the Fall and Obama cannot, even though both will win California, Massachussetts and New York (which she won) and Illinois and Hawaii (which he won), and even though there is no scientific link of causation involved with a primary win and a national election win.
Positing as her electability argument that the Democratic superdelegates should award her the nomination because she has more electoral votes than Obama in a hypothetical, poll-based matchup with John McCain six months before the November election, while simultaneously making the argument that a long drawn-out contentious primary doesn't hurt the party because Bill Clinton was able to move from third place in the polls in June of 1992 to winning it all in November.
Claiming that her remark about Bobby Kennedy being assassinated in June of 1968 is a good example of how a primary season went into June, when that primary started months later in the calendar than this year's primary and Kennedy had only been a candidate for three months.
And many more...

The Daily Show again provides a good-humored but eviscerating look into the dazzling, evolutionary sophistry of the Clinton's attempt to spin and to justify their minority stake of delegates into a majority stance of nomination:

All of this is crystallized nicely by today's Dick Morris article featured on TheHill.com:

In January 1998, right after The Washington Post revealed President Bill
Clinton’s relationship with Monica, I spoke with him about his predicament.
Shell-shocked and stunned at the calls for his impeachment, he knew he was
facing the fight of his life. At first, he was vintage Bill Clinton: maudlin,
sad and full of self-pity. But as we talked, he gradually changed his tone.
Admitting that he was not innocent, but recognizing his diminishing support, he
then told me defiantly: “Well, we’ll just have to win.”
Several years later, I was surprised to read in Sidney Blumenthal’s memoirs that then-first lady Hillary Clinton had used the exact same words on the exact same day in a conversation with the White House aide. “We’ll just have to win.”
That’s how the Clintons think — no matter what, they have to win. Winning is everything, and how you do it is not determined by any inner sense of values or ethics, but by a resolve to do whatever needs to be done, no more and certainly no less.

For the Clintons, the ends justify the means in this case. For the Clintons, it is easier to beg forgiveness afterwards than to seek permission beforehand.

Many have called the Clintons (or their behavior) "narcissistic"--and whether it is a personality defect or a calculated course of action, it is not difficult to see why this term applies.

From the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV), these are the Diagnostic Criteria for Narcissistic Personality Disorder:

A pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts, as indicated by five (or more) of the following:

(1) has a grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements)
(2) is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love
(3) believes that he or she is "special" and unique and can only be understood by,
or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions)
(4) requires excessive admiration
(5) has a sense of entitlement, i.e., unreasonable expectations of especially favorable
treatment or automatic compliance with his or her expectations
(6) is interpersonally exploitative, i.e., takes advantage of others to achieve his or
her own ends
(7) lacks empathy: is unwilling to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others
(8) is often envious of others or believes that others are envious of him or her
(9) shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes

Wow. Within the past year, you can see how the Clintons have exemplified multiple signs of narcissistic behavior:

Hillary Clinton's Bosnia exaggeration
The arrogance of the "inevitability argument"
The desire for the highest office in the land (again)
The argument that being First Lady in the White House and in Arkansas translates into 35 years of hard-earned experience to be President
The lack of empathy for Obama supporters and the Democratic Party being put through the end of this campaign with a hardening of racial and gender lines
The pervasive sense of entitlement that they deserve the Democratic Nomination
Taking advantage of latent racial tensions in the Democratic Party base to capture votes and find a supportive constituency

There are most likely more signs, but these stand out immediately. So now we have both sophistry and narcissism employed by the losing candidate in the Democratic Nomination process, yet somehow the DNC has allowed them to hold the nomination process and the presumptive nominee hostage as they have moved the goalposts relentlessly until an unlikely but more favorable outcome somehow emerges?

If the term "appeasement" had any application in this entire election, beyond the failed attempt by President Bush to use that term in the Knesset in a way that proved inconsistent with the actual historical meaning, it would be the DNC's treatment of Hillary Clinton.

No matter how many times the DNC acquiesces and gives in on a Clinton demand to keep them in the race, the Clintons keep pursuing the larger goal of winning the nomination despite the obvious collateral damage to the party.

When the Clintons talk about the popular vote as the decisive metric and harshly discount caucus states as "undemocratic", and the DNC does not act, they are appeasing Hillary Clinton's flagging campaign's need for a new metric to justify their candidacy.

When the Clintons blast the DNC for not approving the Michigan/Florida results when her own campaign staffer Harold Ickes voted to strip those two states of their delegates, and her other staffer Terry McAuliffe wrote profusely about how the potential sanctions facing Michigan in 2004 if they moved their primary up in the calendar were necessary because this movement would destroy the Democratic nominating process, and the DNC takes no action but lets her continue on her haphazard path to a nomination, this is appeasement.

By conceding seemingly innocuous and small half-truths and dissembled information to the Clinton campaign in the hopes that she'll be a "good sport" in the end, instead of drawing the line in the sand and telling her campaign that they are damaging the Democratic Party as an institution and as a viable party in 2008, the DNC appeases Hillary Clinton.

The lack of a party elder, a Churchill, to step in and end the sophistry, the narcissism and the appeasment of the Clintons has contributed greatly to the current state of affairs in the Democratic Primary, which may end with an otherwise formidable candidate in Barack Obama hamstrung by Clintonian whispers of an illegitimate victory and a suppression of support from Clinton's constituencies during the primary race.

While Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid may be able to step up and end the process before it goes to the Convention and restore a sense of order to the Party, it will take an elder to step up and restore a sense of morality and soul to the Party to counter the poison the Clintons have injected into the Democrats' bloodstream.

Al Gore is that elder, and it is my hope that he steps forward after June 3rd and declares the race over, restores the moral legitimacy of the contest and provides Barack Obama with the foundation and mended fences to mount his campaign for the White House.

If you need any sense of how Gore can do this, I suggest you (and the Clintons) watch the HBO movie Recount.

In the most poignant moment at the end of the movie, Ron Klain (Kevin Spacey) is on the phone with Vice President Al Gore the day after the Supreme Court decision with a plan to go after the Florida State Legislature's certification of the vote and awarding of the Electoral Votes. Gore says to Klain the very sophia that Klain gave to Gore during the contesting of the Florida vote: "Even if I win, I can't win."

Simply stated, the very actions, the sophistry, that Gore would have needed to make--trashing the Supreme Court's decision publicly, delegitimizing their importance, overturning the certification of Electoral Votes from Florida, filing lawsuits left and right, sending out surrogates on all the news channels, and dragging the country into a no-man's land of a leaderless future or threats of a shadow presidency--would have by their own weight destroyed any hope that Gore would have to govern the United States effectively, even if he was somehow successful and pulled it off.

Gore's sense of awareness of how his actions would affect the larger good for America shows a stark display of anti-narcissitic behavior that the Clintons should learn and learn quickly.

As the Gospel of Mark (8:36) admonishes, "What does it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, but lose his own soul?" In the present situation, perhaps this verse should read "What does it profit a candidate to gain the nomination, but destroy the party in the end?"

The scary thing is that this particular narcissist just might answer, "Everything, " because for the Clintons their actions can easily be seen within a win/win strategy: Either take the nomination this year, or damage Obama so much that a 2012 run becomes possible.

Two Texas Supers for Obama

2008-05-30T09:08:00.000-07:00

Husband and Wife team Boyd and Bettie Richie have announced their endorsement of Senator Barack Obama.

Boyd Richie serves as the Texas Democratic Party Chairman and his wife is a DNC superdelegate for the state as well.

The announcement by Mr. Richie at this time bodes well for Senator Obama's prospects in gaining add-on delegates at the Texas state convention in June.

Bill Clinton's "Vote per Delegate" Metric Nonsense

2008-05-29T17:47:00.000-07:00

Yesterday Bill Clinton made a specious, and rather Clintonian, argument that caucuses are somehow unfair because they reward more delegate votes on a per voter basis than do primaries. This argument is central to the Clintonian 'debate' that somehow a caucus is less democratic than a primary, and therefore Obama's delegate lead is a false representation of the ever-elusive "will of the people", whatever that means. (Democrats only? Independents?)

"And the party will have to decide whether they believe the caucuses --
where you get about one delegate for 2000 votes -- are more important than the primaries where you get one for 12,000"
--Bill Clinton

FLAW #1:

Slippery slope: If caucuses are less democratic than a closed primary, then is a closed primary less democratic than a semi-open primary? How about an open primary?

In Clintonian logic, closed primaries are less democratic than non-closed primaries, so therefore non-closed primaries should be given more weight.

I did the math on this one.

For closed primaries, Senator Clinton received 4,266,983 votes to Senator Obama's 3,854,032, for a Clinton margin of +412,951.

For non-closed primaries, (more democratic than caucuses for Clintonian logic), Senator Obama received 13,022,161 votes to Senator Clinton's 12,755,691, for an Obama margin of +266,470.

For purely open primaries, the most democratic possible primary of all according to the Clintons, Senator Obama received 3,601,593 votes to Senator Clinton's 2,984,625, for an Obama margin of +616,968.

According to this Clintonian logic, Senator Obama suffered in closed primaries, and even a bit in non-closed/non-open primaries, because they were simply not democratic enough, so those primaries should be thrown out and only the truest forms of democratic contests in these non-closed primary states should count.

FLAW #2:

The Clinton campaign wants to make the argument that Senator Clinton has received more votes in the primaries than Senator Obama, thus trying to make the argument that in more democratic election systems, she is the more popular candidate, and that Obama's wins in caucuses are therefore suspect and invalid.

Senator Clinton has received more votes in primaries, but as the above analysis shows, her margin of victory comes entirely from closed primaries. Senator Obama has beaten her in semi-closed/semi-open primaries and open primaries, which means that in all non-closed primaries, Senator Obama beat Senator Clinton as well.

Senator Clinton's argument about some forms of primary being more valid than other only applies to a closed primary system, which is the only form of primary that she has won so far (besides invalidated primaries).

Normally you don't make this type of argument where your position is not open-ended, but instead is flanked and undermined by just a slight bit more analysis.

So, let's get this straight for the record:

Based on results on each contest, from "least democratic" to "most democratic"...

CAUCUSES: Senator Obama wins

CLOSED PRIMARIES: Senator Clinton wins

SEMI-CLOSED/SEMI-OPEN PRIMARIES: Senator Obama wins

OPEN PRIMARIES: Senator Obama wins

It's rather funny how the Clintons don't qualify their argument that they mean only closed primaries, when an open primary better approximates a national election and the whole point of her argument is that she is more electable nationally. She is basing this argument off the notion that Obama only wins caucuses, but she wins primaries. Yet the more democratic a primary gets, the better Obama does. This information completely blows this premise out of the water.

FLAW #3:

President Clinton contends that it is unfair that a caucus grants a delegate per 2,000 votes, and a primary grants a delegate per 12,000 votes.

However, even within the same set of primaries--for example, open primaries--there still are major discrepancies in terms of delegate allocation per vote.

Let's take three of the open primaries: Indiana, Missouri and Alabama.

Indiana was awarded 72 delegates, Missouri 72, and Alabama 52.

Turnout? Indiana had 1,278,268 votes case, Missouri 825,208 and Alabama 536,279.

Votes per delegate awarded? Indiana = 17,754 v/d, Missouri 11,461 v/d, and Alabama 10,313 v/d.

Indiana had the same amount of delegates to award as Missouri, ran the same exact system of primary, and yet there was about a 6,300 vote per delegate difference between these two states with such similar set-ups. Indiana had over 7,400 more votes needed per delegate in contrast to Alabama, using the same open primary system.

Does this mean that Indiana's open primary was more democratic than Alabama's? Does this mean that Indiana's 72 delegates are worth more than Missouri's?

Interestingly enough, Indiana only contributed a 14,198 vote advantage for Clinton but gave her four more pledged delegates. Missouri only contributed a 11,732 vote advantage for Obama but he tied Clinton in pledged delegates from this contest. Alabama, however, went for Obama by about 67,000 votes and netted him two pledged delegates.

So a 14,198 vote margin for Clinton in Indiana gains her four delegates, but a 63,000 vote margin for Obama in Alabama gains him two delegates?

This might be crazy to consider, if one actually tries to make perfect sense of not only how each state contest is run, but also how delegates are awarded within each state based on performance by district and statewide. I posted a story earlier about this very detail in Indiana on how the vote there broke down into delegates.

The point here is simple. The attempt to link votes to delegates is insane, because even within the same form of primary contest, there will be major differences in the ratio between votes and delegates, based on all sorts of things like turnout, timing in the primary calendar, etc.

The seemingly simple argument by Clinton that a votes per delegate metric is important to consider is surprisingly complex to the point where the suggestion of such a ratio is illogical and unsuited for the primary contests.

This argument fails under its own weight when scrutinized.

FLAW #4:

The most egregious logical error is that the Clinton campaign's argument on this matter is purely a non-starter.

Each state chose the best form of primary system for its residents according to their democratically elected officials and party leaders. In order to accommodate the unique aspects of each state's primary elections, the DNC created the delegate system to create a common denominator by which each state could have an ordinal sense of rank based on population but a unique form of primary within its borders.

DailyKos and JedReport have featured articles on this before, but the logic is clear. Why on earth would the states of Missouri and Minnesota, both granted 72 delegates by the DNC, choose an open primary and an open caucus (respectively) for its method of allocating those delegates if in the end the popular vote would be reinserted as a weight by which to measure electability?

By virtue of the DNC allowing each state to select its own system of preference for divvying up the delegates it is awarded to the National Convention, each state's choice is inherently democratic and a reflection of the will of the people of that state through representative democracy. To backtrack and try to reconstitute the principles of the primary race in this manner is absurd on its face, even with the seeming clarion call to "democratic principles" of every vote should count ex post facto.

This argument after the rules were set and agreed upon, and the contest began, is as silly as arguing at the end of a basketball game that layups are only worth half a point, but three pointers are now worth five points, so I should have won because I only shot outside jumpers while you drove by me all game.

Strategy is based upon rules, and to change the rules after the fact is to undermine the very logic and strategy of winning the primary.

Sort of reminds me of this movie...

Which States Have the Most Remaining Superdelegates?

2008-05-29T16:27:00.000-07:00

Most states' superdelegates have declared one way or the other at this point, but the states that still have a large number of superdelegates may be able to coalesce those votes for favors or large consideration at the Convention if they coordinate appropriately.

The following states have the highest number of superdelegates remaining form their delegation, including unnamed add-on delegates.

California: 14
Texas: 10 (includes 3 add-ons)
Ohio: 9
Maryland: 8
North Carolina: 7 (includes 2 add-ons)
Pennsylvania: 7 (includes 3 add-ons)
Tennessee: 7 (includes 1 add-on)
Virginia: 7 (includes 2 add-ons)
Louisiana: 6
Massachussetts: 6
Missouri: 6 (includes 1 add-on)
Montana: 5 (includes 1 add-on)
Nevada: 5 (includes 1 add-on)
Washington: 5 (includes 2 add-ons)

All other states have less than 5 remaining superdelegates.

There have been rumors that the California delegation would make a big move, whether from remaining superdelegates or from currently declared superdelegates for Clinton.

What has to be alarming to Senator Clinton is that so many of these superdelegates come from states that have gone for her, including Ohio, California, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. You would think that if there were undeclared Clinton supporters in this group, they would come out now instead of waiting to help the Clinton campaign at a moment of desperation. You have to wonder if there are Obama supporters in this mix that are in Clinton districts or conservative districts, and that an open declaration would jeopardize their future re-election efforts.

I'll do more analysis on this later.

Also, these states have no more superdelegates remaining (and thus no leverage):

Alaska

America Samoa

Democrats Abroad

Guam

Hawaii

Obama Gains Another WV Super

2008-05-29T16:03:00.000-07:00

Despite the shellacking the Obama campaign suffered in the West Virginia primary, Senator Obama picked up yet another superdelegate from the Mountain State.

This time it's Congressman Alan B. Mollahan, who has served as a West Virginia Congressman for a quarter-century.

Mollahan's decision means that Obama has swept the four Congressional superdelegates from West Virginia, adding to the previous endorsements of Senators Rockefeller and Byrd and fellow Congressman Nick Rahall. Senator Clinton has received three endorsements from DNC automatic delegates. West Virginia has three more superdelegates remaining plus the add-on delegate to be decided at the June 14th State Convention.

Mollahan's statement read as follows:

“I believe Senator Obama will bring America a new era of trust, principled leadership and positive results. He has the intelligence, capacity and values that assure me he will confront the real issues that Americans face every day - health care, pension reform, energy prices, the struggling economy, and, of course, the issue of Iraq."

Clinton Gains Washington State Super

2008-05-29T15:02:00.000-07:00

Eileen Macoll, a Washington superdelegate, has endorsed Senator Hillary Clinton.

Macoll is the DNC Vice Chairwoman for the Washington State Party. In her announcement she cited her view that Clinton still had a chance for the nomination, and that voting for a female candidate also played a role in her mindset. In a sign that this decision was more cosmetic than aggressive at this point of the race, Macoll also noted that she will support Obama 100% should he be named the Democratic Nominee.

Obama Closing in on 200 Total Delegate Lead

2008-05-29T08:06:00.000-07:00

Gail Rasmussen's endorsement of Senator Obama puts him at a lead of 198 total delegates (1981.5 -- 1783.5) and 44 total delegates short of the 2025.5 nomination-clinching magic number, pending the results of Saturday's Rules Committee meeting that could determine the fate of the Florida/Michigan delegations.

Obama is projected to pick up at least 40 out of 86 pledged delegates from the remaining three contests in South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico. It is a near lock that Obama will have enough superdelegates to reach this number prior to the last contest on June 3rd.

Obama Gains another Oregon Superdelegate

2008-05-29T07:59:00.000-07:00

This time it's Gail Rasmussen, the vice president of the Oregon Education Association.

She follows two other Oregonians from yesterday in supporting Obama, and makes it a 7-2 advantage in superdelegates for him, with three more superdelegates left to decide and an add-on delegate left to be named.

Examining the Logical Consistency of the Latest Clinton Rationale

2008-05-28T17:28:00.001-07:00

I admit, my head is spinning a bit with all the 'angles' that the Clinton campaign is throwing out there as a diversion from the cold, hard numbers that show her campaign is near death.

This latest comment from Bill Clinton is another example of how what's logical in 1992 is no longer logical in 2008:

Hillary Clinton in her memo to the superdelegates (May 28, 2008):

"Recent polls and election results show a clear trend: I am ahead in states that
have been critical to victory in the past two elections," Clinton writes in a
letter to these superdelegates. "From Ohio, to Pennsylvania, to West Virginia
and beyond, the results of recent primaries in battleground states show that I
have strong support from the regions and demographics Democrats need to take
back the White House. I am also currently ahead of Senator McCain in Gallup national tracking polls, while Senator Obama is behind him. And nearly all independent analyses show that I am in a stronger position to win the Electoral College, primarily because I lead Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio."

So, according to Senator Clinton, being ahead in late May in the national tracking polls and in the electoral college against the Republican presumptive nominee is virtually immutable and shows who will win in November.

However, earlier in the campaign, references to the 1992 Democratic Primary were brought up many times by the Clinton campaign in response to complaints that a long drawn-out primary season would weaken the Democrats' ability to win in November.

Senator Clinton referenced the fact that her husband was behind both George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot in April/May of 1992, yet found a way to win in November of the same year despite this horrible starting position.

From her interview with Time Magazine on March 26, 2008:

I think the elections that are yet to come deserve to be held because the people
from Pennsylvania to Puerto Rico to all the others that are waiting in line
deserve to be heard. And I think that's part of the good. You know, I remind a
lot of people that my husband didn't formally wrap up the nomination until June and when he did he was behind both President Bush and Ross Perot. You know as well as anyone how dynamic elections are and how fluid they are, and I think that we're going to win in November and once we get our nominee chosen we're going to have a very vigorous campaign to make sure that happens.

The obvious implication?

Don't worry about Democratic Party unity or prospects in November in the face of such a grueling, drawn-out primary campaign season. It's ok that Senator Clinton continue her abrasive fight for the nomination despite the daunting delegate math that has given her the smallest of hope that she can overcome Obama. We'll all come together in the end and we can still win in November.

So, in the first instance, the relative poll positions in May for Senator Clinton and Senator Obama in relation to Senator McCain should be a top priority for Democratic leaders to consider when selecting the nominee.

However, in the second instance, Democratic leaders should ignore relative poll positions in May because those don't matter in the long run, because the Democrats will all come together and overtake the Republican nominee.

In the first instance, the current state of the 2008 race in May is static and will play out as such until November.

In the second instance, the state of the race in June 1992 for her husband was so fluid that being third in the polls was a minor trifle and inconsequential.

Which is it? Logical inconsistency at its best.

Another Oregonian for Obama

2008-05-28T16:08:00.000-07:00

Oregon DNC automatic superdelegate Wayne Kinney has announced his support for Senator Obama.

From Kinney's press release:

Senator Obama wasn’t supposed to be able to get this far. One member of
Congress from Illinois said that for Sen. Obama to win the nomination, he’d have
to be perfect. He’s been pretty damned good. The fact that this nomination is
still inches from being decided is a testament to the abilities of both Sen.
Obama and Sen. Clinton.
While there are a few primaries left to go, it’s now over for Oregon. Sen. Obama won our state by almost 18 points. He is very close to winning a majority of the delegates he needs to be our nominee for President.
But there should be more to my decision than that. After all, we automatic, “super” delegates are not automatons. We are not here to ratify. We’re expected to use our judgment. Here’s mine: After watching Sen. Obama for more than a year, it’s clear that he offers an ability to lead and inspire that’s been sorely lacking in this country.
Senator Obama will win our nomination, and will be our President.
It felt good to write that sentence.

The Total Delegate Tracker

2008-05-28T14:58:00.000-07:00

My apologies for the terrible format of the JPEG of my Delegate Tracker, which is the accompanying piece to my Clinton Matrix.

Click on the picture above to see the Delegate Tracker in more clarity, and you will find exactly how the delegate landscape looks from here on out.

The Magic Number is still 2025.5 total delegates to clinch the nomination, pending the results of the Michigan/Florida debate on Saturday.

At this point in the nomination race, given the projected allocation of pledged delegates in the remaining three contests (at a very conservative clip for Senator Obama), Senator Clinton would need to do the following to reach 2025.5:

Capture every single one of the 164 undeclared automatic superdelegates remaining
Capture every single one of the 34 unnamed/undeclared add-on delegates remaining
Capture at least one of the remaining 7 unclaimed Edwards delegates

There are no more delegates left for Senator Clinton to go after in this scenario, save an attempt to defect Obama superdelegates to her camp.

If a combination of seven more undeclared automatic superdelegates, unnamed/undeclared add-on delegates and unclaimed Edwards delegates announces for Obama, then Senator Clinton will be mathematically eliminated from reaching 2025.5 unless Obama suffers defections from his superdelegate total.

All of this analysis is rendered partially moot should the Michigan/Florida decision come back forcing Senator Obama to increase his superdelegate total by a larger margin to capture the nomination.

UPDATE: Another automatic superdelegate has declared for Senator Obama in the meantime, so Clinton now needs TWO Edwards delegates in addition to every single one of the remaining undeclared automatic delegates and the uncommitted add-on delegates to reach 2025.5.

It will be interesting to see if Obama can claim this new metric prior to Saturday. I'm betting he does.

Confirmation of Virgin Islands Super Double Defection

2008-05-28T14:43:00.000-07:00

Earlier I posted that there had been rumors that Virgin Islands superdelegate Kevin Rodriguez was reported to have switched from Obama to Clinton, just a few weeks after switching from Clinton to Obama in the first place.

NBC News has now confirmed this defection, so I will now count it in the totals for Senators Clinton and Obama.

Three More Superdelegates for Obama

2008-05-28T14:20:00.000-07:00

Over the past 24 hours, Senator Barack Obama has picked up the support of two state DNC Chairs and a Guam superdelegate.

Guam Senator Ben Pangelinan has endorsed Senator Obama, making him the final delegate from Guam to make his decision. Guam has four pledged delegates (in reality, eight pledged 1/2 delegates) and five automatic superdelegates. With Senator Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton splitting the four pledged delegates evenly and the prior four superdelegates, the announcement by Pangelinan gives Obama a 5-4 advantage among all total delegates from Guam.

In the aftermath of Senator Obama's strong victory in the Beaver State, Oregon state DNC Chair Meredith Wood Smith made public her endorsement of Obama in an op-ed piece that ran in the Oregonian today.

Why Obama? Because he received the majority of the votes in the Oregon primary,
and he demonstrates the leadership needed to get us out of Iraq, restore our
economy, begin the tough job of providing health care for all Americans and,
most of all, heal the divisions in our nation. His commitment to grass-roots
organizing, similar to Howard Dean's "Fifty State Strategy," will help Democrats
win our down-ticket races. His deep understanding of our Constitution ensures
that he will appoint judges, to both the Supreme Court and lower federal courts,
who will truly defend our constitutional rights and freedoms.

Colorado Democratic Chairwoman Pat Waak also chose to endorse Senator Obama today. Holding out until the votes were cast and the State Convention held, Waak chose to come out today with her support.

In an excerpt from the article, Waak cited three main reasons for her endorsement:

In a statement put out by the Obama campaign in which Waak cited his
"electability" in Colorado and the West, she gave three reasons for her support:
Obama's big victory in the Feb. 5 Colorado caucuses; that Obama's "message of
change" can beat Republican John McCain in November; and that the country needs
his "visionary, uplifting leadership."

Tim Russert Explains How Race Will End on June 4th

2008-05-27T23:36:00.000-07:00

Why Obama Will Win the Nomination by June 15th

2008-05-27T17:06:00.000-07:00

All along this site has proclaimed the power of the add-on delegates, and again it is the add-on delegates that are sealing the fate for Senator Clinton while the unpledged automatic delegates sit on the sidelines. Unlike the automatic delegates who are caught up in multiple levels of pressure in terms of which candidate they will endorse, the add-on delegates are typically selected exactly because of their stated preference for a candidate.

According to NBC News, Senator Obama is 48.5 total delegates away from reaching the nomination-clinching number of 2026 (pending results of the Michigan/Florida issue).

In the last three contests, there is a total of 84 pledged delegates remaining, with 31 in South Dakota and Montana, and 55 in Puerto Rico.

According to recent polls, Obama is expected to win handily in South Dakota and Montana. Given the proportional allocation rules and the very small number of pledged delegates in each of these two states, these Obama wins will result in a 9-7 and 8-7 split in the most likely scenario. This result would mean a 17-14 pledged delegate win in those two states.

Senator Clinton is favored in Puerto Rico, but again the proportional allocation rules will keep the pledged delegate differential at a modest number. Senator Clinton is expected to win between 30 and 35 pledged delegates from the commonwealth, which in turn would result in an expected pickup of 20-25 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Worst case scenario sees Senator Obama picking up a minimum of 37 pledged delegates in the remaining contests, leaving him 11.5 total delegates short of the magic number.

From now until June 15th, there will be 22 add-on delegates awarded during state conventions. The following states take action in the next three weeks, with blue states signifying Obama wins, red states signifying Clinton wins and green (Texas) signifying a split decision:

June 1: Maine (1)
June 7: Kentucky (1), Minnesota (2), Pennsylvania (3), Texas (3), Vermont (1), Mississippi (1)
June 8: Montana (1)
June 13: Wisconsin (2)
June 14: Idaho (1), Iowa (1), Virginia (2), West Virginia (1)
June 15: Washington (1)

Obama-states feature 13 add-on delegates, Clinton-states feature 5 add-on delegates, and Texas is a tie and has 3 add-on delegates.

Even among these states, the math doesn't help Clinton because Pennsylvania may cede an add-on delegate to Obama, as might Texas.

So, if each state holds true to form (and Obama's states were big wins for him there), then even without another automatic superdelegate making an endorsement, Obama will cross the 2026 threshold on June 14th when Virginia makes its two selections.

Of course, if Michigan and Florida are resolved in such a way that Senator Clinton is favored, Senator Obama will need to make up the difference with more automatic delegates announcing to overcome the deficit.

I like the theories abounding that allowing the pledged delegate wins on June 3rd be the decisive factor, if enough automatic delegates make up their minds right before then.

I think that perhaps the reason why there is not the expected "deluge" of automatic delegates for Obama yet is that they are being kept in reserve until the results of the Michigan/Florida compromise are known. There is still time between that decision and the June 3rd primaries to make such a large move that would allow Obama to go over the top on June 3rd if the automatic delegates are coordinated.

If the Michigan/Florida situation remains unresolved, and 2026 remains the magic number, then Obama is sure to hit it by June 15th.

The Clinton Matrix: May 27th Edition

2008-05-27T16:39:00.000-07:00

THE CLINTON MATRIX

The end is nigh.

After the 4-1 pick up of add-on delegates over the weekend, plus the 4-pledged-delegate swing in Obama's favor, the Clinton Matrix is almost completely red, which indicates an impossible situation for Senator Clinton to gain the nomination (under the current 2025/2026 clinching number).

Keep in mind that this chart projects different outcomes with the pledged and add-on delegates, which follow their own rules, as opposed to the automatic delegates, which are unbounded. Senator Clinton will need to win every single uncommitted automatic delegate remaining even if she somehow were to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates (very unlikely) and 70% of the add-on delegates (near impossible). If somehow Clinton were to win 70% of both totals, she would still need 97% of the remaining automatic delegates to clinch, or 169/174 of this group.

For the entire grid to go red, Obama only needs to pick up 33 of the remaining pledged delegates, or 17 of the remaining add-on delegates, or some combination of 41 delegates from both the add-on and pledged totals.

Obama is on pace to pick up 17 pledged delegates in South Dakota and Montana, and at least 22 from Puerto Rico, which means that if he receives two more add-on delegates, or outperforms the weak total in Puerto Rico, he can effectively remove any hope for Clinton from any genuine or serious discussion of Clinton's chances to win the nomination.

Obama Gains Wyoming Super, but Clinton Steals Back Virgin Islands Defector

2008-05-27T16:25:00.000-07:00

So far today, the net total of superdelegate endorsements is Clinton +1, Obama 0.

Obama gained the endorsement of Wyoming State Vice Chairwoman Nancy Drummond earlier today. Yet, this gain was negated when one of his superdelegates, Kevin Rodriguez, defected back to Hillary Clinton. Earlier this month Rodriguez had defected from Clinton to Obama.

Until we get confirmation from NBC News, I will not count this as an official defection, but I will keep track of this development.

Pledged Delegate Adjustments: Obama +2, Clinton -2

2008-05-27T15:55:00.000-07:00

As we've seen in other states, sometimes as the final votes are calculated some adjustments are made as candidates surpass new threshold numbers which award a greater share of pledged delegates than previously reported. In other cases, the final tallies for pledged delegates is refined at the State Convention, depending upon turnout, which is based roughly on the results of the raw election totals during the statewide election contests held previously.

Most states (perhaps all but I'm not sure of this fact yet) have three forms of pledged delegates--district-level, at-large, and PLEOs (Party Leader/Elected Official).

The district level delegates are the majority of pledged delegates awarded, and they are assigned based on the election returns for each of the districts as designated by the state. For most states the districts are Congressional. Other states, like Texas, used state senatorial districts. Regardless, depending upon the number of delegates awarded to each district, each candidate earns a number of those delegates based upon what thresholds their vote percentage totals allots.

Both the at-large and PLEO pledged delegates are awarded based on statewide vote percentages. These delegates are the minority of pledged delegates awarded in each state contest.

According to NBC News, which is my preferred source for delegate updates, the final totals in Alaska and Colorado have been updated, and in each case, Obama has taken a pledged delegate away from Senator Clinton's total from the raw primary-day total.

These corrections result in a four-pledged-delegate swing in Obama's favor, and brings him two more delegates closer to clinching the nomination. If somehow the magic number of pledged delegate majority increases again as a result of a Michigan/Florida resolution, then these two extra delegates may come in handy for Senator Obama to reach that new number.

Two New Superdelegates Named in Hawai'i

2008-05-27T15:39:00.000-07:00

In other action at the Hawai'i State Convention over the weekend, two of the state's automatic superdelegate spots on the Hawai'i delegation were up for grabs, going to the incoming State Chair and Vice-Chair.

Obama supporters Brian Schatz and Kari Luna were named to be State Chair and Vice-Chair, respectively. Both positions are considered automatic delegates to the National Convention and add to Senator Obama's superdelegate total.

Add-On Delegates from the Weekend: Obama 4, Clinton 1

2008-05-27T15:04:00.000-07:00

The only real surprise here is that Senator Clinton managed to steal an add-on delegate from Georgia, a state which went heavily for Senator Obama.

Five add-on delegates were awarded during state conventions this past weekend in Alaska, Hawai'i, Wyoming and Georgia--all state Obama won by large margins.

In a slightly mild surprise, Senator Obama only won four of those five, winning the add-ons from Alaska, Hawai'i and Wyoming and splitting the two from Georgia with Senator Clinton.

In Alaska, former Governor Tony Knowles was elected by the State Convention as the add-on for the 49th state, according to the Anchorage Daily News.

Obama won Alaska 75%-25% in the earlier primary contest.

Wyoming named State Representative W. Patrick Goggles of Ethete as their add-on delegate. In yet another example of how State Chairs influence how the State's Add-On Delegates are selected, Goggles was the only name put forth by fellow Obama supporter and Wyoming State Chair John Millin.

Obama won Wyoming by a 61%-38% margin in March.

Hawai'i selected James Burns, a former Chief Judge of the State Intermediate Court of Appeals and Obama supporter, as their add-on delegate, according to the Honolulu Advertiser. Burns is the son of a former Governor, but his selection by the State Party was not a sure thing, as he won by only three votes at the convention. The following from the aforementioned article is of interest to read:

Burns described the youthful activism as a revolution and said he agrees with Obama's message of change. He said if his father — party icon and former governor — John Burns, could devote his life to politics, he could give some time to the party now that he is not on the bench.
The Burns campaign for superdelegate, however, was an example of the competition between the Obama and Clinton camps. Burns had a letter of endorsement from Obama and was thought to be the favorite, but Clinton supporters pushed for a comparable candidate, with Jennifer Goto Sabas, Inouye's chief of staff in Honolulu, finally stepping forward. The state central committee was forced to choose between Burns, whose family is legendary in party politics, and Sabas, the senior senator's
point person in the Islands. Burns won by three votes.
"I'm really not a politician," the retired judge told reporters afterward. "But I want to get involved in the party."

Obama won Hawai'i by a 76%-24% margin.

Georgia was afforded two add-on delegate slots, and in a mild surprise Senator Clinton was able to split the award and earned the selection of her State Director, Verna Cleveland. Senator Obama gained the selection of his supporter, State Party Secretary Stephen Leeds, for the second add-on delegate slot.

Obama won Georgia by a 67%-31% margin.

The Clinton Matrix: May 21st Edition--Post Kentucky/Oregon

2008-05-21T14:34:00.000-07:00

THE CLINTON MATRIX: POST KENTUCKY / OREGON

For the first time in the Clinton Matrix history, Senator Clinton's only chances at even the most extreme boundaries of pledged/add-on delegate distribution requires her to gain over 90% of the remaining undeclared automatic superdelegates.

Senator Clinton cannot win the nomination (as is) even if she receives 55% of both add-on and pledged delegates.

To put this all in context, let's examine Senator Clinton's most practical chance to get to 2025:

1st: Win 50% (or 20) of the 39 add-on delegates left. (Never mind that the remaining states favor Obama big time)

2nd: Win 65% (or 58) of the remaining 89 pledged delegates--which includes contests in South Dakota (Obama win) and Montana (Obama win) and the last few delegates from Oregon (Obama win).

3rd: Win 97.7% (or 166) of the remaining 170 undeclared automatic superdelegates, even though a large number of them are already Obama supporters waiting to declare.

This is not a realistic scenario by any means.

And let's not forget, as I and others have posted before:

Obama should finish with a projected 40-42 of the remaining 86 pledged delegates after Oregon is cleaned up. This puts him at 1686-1688 pledged delegates. Throw in the 67 he won in Florida along with the 13 from Edwards, and even without an allocation from Michigan, he will have 1766-1768 pledged delegates. Add in the nine remaining Edwards delegates and you get a total of 1775-1777 pledged delegates.

The new magic number for pledged delegate majority should Clinton get both Michigan and Florida seated exactly as they "voted" earlier would be [(3253 + 313) / (2)] = 1783. Obama would then need at most 8 more pledged delegates to gain this second "magic number". Any allocation out of Michigan will give Obama more than 8 pledged delegates, considering that "uncommitted" on the Michigan ballot would have gained 55 pledged delegates total.

An Add-On for Clinton, a Congressman and State Chair for Obama

2008-05-21T14:10:00.001-07:00

In the wake of a split decision in Oregon and Kentucky, the stream of superdelegates has slowed down today considerably from last week when Senator Obama was rolling out 4-5 superdelegates a day.

Senator Clinton won the second add-on delegate for Ohio, after the first one opted to endorse Obama. As Ben Smith at Politico.com reported, Ohio add-on Craig Bashein has endorsed Senator Clinton.

There was discussion that the Ohio state party would select an Obama and a Clinton supporter for its add-on delegates. The timing of this add-on delegate's decision was most likely orchestrated by the Clinton campaign to build on the Kentucky win yesterday.

Senator Obama picked up two superdelegates today--Connecticut Congressman Joe Courtney from and Mississippi State Party Chairman Wayne Dowdy.

The Clinton Matrix: May 20th Edition, Pre-Oregon/Kentucky Results

2008-05-20T17:16:00.000-07:00

Here you go...

The odds are bleaker and bleaker for Senator Clinton. Her only chance is to keep above a 65% clip on pledged delegate gains in both Oregon and Kentucky. That scenario will not happen tonight, perhaps not even in Kentucky unless she pulls off another victory like West Virginia.

If she only nets a handful of pledged delegates today, let's say five (Clinton 31-20 in Kentucky; Obama 29-23 in Oregon), she would need 50% of the remaining add-ons and 65% of the remaining pledged delegates in Puerto Rico/South Dakota/Montana just to stay mathematically alive with the superdelegates. That would require 56 of the last 86 pledged delegates available. Losing South Dakota and Montana would probably result in a 18-13 split for Obama, meaning she'd have to sweep somehow Puerto Rico by a 43-12 margin in delegates. Heck, you practically get 12 delegates just for showing up, in proporational allocations.

The focus now is on Obama securing 1627, and in a pinch, 1783.5 if Florida and Michigan are seated without sanction. Obama should come close to splitting the remaining pledged delegates from OR/KY/MT/SD/PR, meaning he would add 94 to his total of 1612, giving him 1706 pledged delegates and leaving him 77.5 pledged delegates shy of the new mark. He won 72 in Florida by himself, and adding a few of the Edwards delegates to his total would push him over the top without any extra work in Michigan to seat delegates in his favor there.

It's been said before, but it bears repeating. The delegate math is over for Senator Clinton.

The irony here is that her push for "making sure everyone votes" really has nothing to do with the "will of the people" in Kentucky and other states at this stage of the game--it has to do with seating the automatic delegates from Florida and Michigan and relying on the undeclared automatic delegates to push her near the nomination.

More on Delegate Math

2008-05-20T16:59:00.000-07:00

A good presentation, once again, by Chuck Todd of MSNBC on the delegate math moving forward from today's contest. I wrote previously about this topic here, noting that the path toward the pledged and total delegate majorities in any scenario are becoming clearer and more probably every week.

Clinton Receives Endorsement from Massachussetts' Add-On Delegate

2008-05-20T15:12:00.000-07:00

Despite Senator Obama having a stranglehold on key Democratic leaders in the Massachussetts state party, Senator Clinton was able to win a strong victory in the state on Super Tuesday in February.

Senator Clinton capped off her display of strength in the state by winning over the second of two add-on delegates awarded to Massachussetts and named by the State Party at their convention. Massachussetts Attorney General Martha Coakley made public her endorsement today, giving Clinton both add-on delegates from this traditionally Democratic state.

Obama Wins Over 5 Superdelegates Monday, 2 More So Far on Tuesday

2008-05-20T08:36:00.000-07:00

In the run-up to the Oregon and Kentucky primaries (52 and 51 pledged delegates respectively), Senator Obama has racked up at least another seven superdelegates. Senator Clinton has not garnered a superdelegate since California DNC superdelegate Umemoto announced for her last Friday.

The seven supers for Obama:

Two members of the Alaska superdelegate pool, DNC members Cindy Spanyers and Blake Johnson. These two superdelegates were the last two uncommitted in the state, although the Alaska add-on delegate will be named on May 23rd. Alaska has four automatic superdelegates (Obama leads 3-1) and one add-on superdelegate.

Bookending Kansas Lieutenant Governor Parkinson's endorsement of Obama over the weekend as an add-on delegate, Kansas Democratic Party Chair Larry Gates has also announced for Obama.

Another State Chairman, this time Washington's Dwight Pelz, also came out for Obama. This development may net another two add-on delegates for Obama on June 15th when the state of Washington holds its state convention. Pelz, as State Chairman, will make the nominations for the add-on delegates to be voted upon by the State Committee. As we've seen before, State Chair decisions play heavily in deciding who the add-on delegates will be for certain states.

As Senator Obama prepares to accept the results of the Oregon primary today in Iowa, it is fitting that he would also pick up the support of Iowa Democratic State Chair Scott Brennan.

Just a few weeks after Obama squeaked out a win in Guam by seven votes, he has now picked up the support of Guam superdelegate Madeleine Bordallo.

Finally, and most importantly, the second of West Virginia's Senators, Robert Byrd, has endorsed Senator Obama's candidacy for President.

And another Michigan Superdelegate for Obama

And to put this out there, Michigan superdelegate Eric Coleman, Oakland County Commissioner, has endorsed Obama. While this endorsement doesn't mean much today, it may mean a lot more if the Michigan delegate is allowed to be seated at the Convention. This announcement makes the invalidated superdelegate count from Michigan to be Clinton 8, Obama 4, Undeclared 16, with two add-on delegates to be named on June 14th.

Weekend Add-On Delegate News: Obama 4, Clinton 3, Uncommitted 1

2008-05-20T08:16:00.000-07:00

As previously discussed here, Obama was favored to win at least four, with a chance for five, of the eight add-on delegates available from the weekend. Clinton was favored to win three, and possibly four, of the same add-on delegates.

The Kansas add-on delegate was already named and declared for Obama.

As previously announced by California Democratic State Chair Art Torres, the five add-on delegates for the state (the most for any state) would be split on a 3-for-Clinton/2-for-Obama basis. Torres held true to this declaration. Clinton supporters named were Dario Frommer, Carolyn Doggett and Dora Rubio; Obama supporters named were William Quay Hays and Lou Paulson.

Also as reported previously by DemConWatch, Federico Pena was named as the Colorado add-on delegate.

Nevada's add-on delegate was named but has openly stated that he is uncommitted. Rusty McAllister's decision to remain uncommitted seems to have been a strategy to be attractive as possible in a state that was a toss-up (Clinton won the vote, Obama won the delegates).

The tally for the add-on delegates named this weekend: Obama 4, Clinton 3, Uncommitted 1

Obama Swipes Pledged Delegate in NV; Gains Kansas Add-On

2008-05-17T17:13:00.001-07:00

Despite Senator Clinton winning the caucus vote in Nevada, Senator Obama's performance in key districts allowed him to leave the voting day caucuses with a one-delegate win (13-12).

Similar to the Iowa Caucuses, where pledged delegates can be reallocated based on turnout and switching of support, the Nevada State Convention today produced a situation where the heavy Obama turnout and lighter Clinton turnout allowed Obama to capture one of Clinton's pledged delegate spots, thus expanding his pledged delegate lead in the state to 14-11, for a 2-delegate swing. The Clinton campaign did send former President Bill Clinton to seal the turnout needed to keep the pledged delegate from switching, but those efforts went fruitless.

The add-on delegate has not yet been announced in Nevada, but it has in Kansas.

As expected, Senator Obama received the support of the Kansas add-on delegate, Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson. Of note, Parkinson used to be a Republican but switched parties to become Governor Kathleen Sebelius' running mate in her election campaign.

Clinton Wins Support of California Super Umemoto

2008-05-17T17:02:00.000-07:00

California superdelegate Keith Umemoto pledged his support for Senator Clinton yesterday, according to the Associated Press. I did not see a press release so I don't have more information to share, other than the fact that Umemoto is the DNC Chair of the Asian Pacific Islander American Caucus.

Obama Gains another Superdelegate

2008-05-17T16:59:00.000-07:00

Another day, another superdelegate.

Senator Obama received the endorsement of Greg Pecoraro today.

An excerpt of Pecoraro's press release:

Today, I am very excited to join the large majority of Maryland Democrats
who expressed their enthusiasm for Senator Obama’s candidacy in our state's
presidential primary. Like them, I believe Barack Obama is the right leader for
our time. With Barack Obama as our nominee and as our President, we have real
hope that a new way of governing the nation is at hand. I strongly believe
that Senator Obama offers us the best opportunity we have had for many years to
turn away from the politics of division and despair, and look towards an America
of opportunity and progress.

Magic Numbers for Obama

2008-05-16T14:46:00.000-07:00

Let's review the magic numbers again.

There have been two magic numbers associated with the Democratic Primary for awhile, specifically since the DNC acted to strip Michigan and Florida of ALL their delegates--pledged, add-on and automatic.

The first "magic number" is 2025, and the second is 1627.

2025

The first magic number, 2025, was designated as such in reference to the 4,048 total delegates available for gain (3253 pledged + 719 automatic + 76 add-on)

While the number of pledged and add-on delegates remains fixed by the DNC, the number of automatic delegates can shift slightly as a result of elected officials losing office or dying, or by party loyalists moving from their state in which they were given superdelegate status. The number of automatic delegates has moved up and down since the beginning of the primary season. With the most recent elections of Cazayoux in Louisiana and Childers in Mississippi, the new number of automatic delegates is now 721, which increased the number of Total Delegates to 4050, which in turn increases the "magic number" to 2025.5.

Given that the Democrats Abroad delegates are worth a half-delegate each, it is possible to end up with 2025.5 precisely.

If, as expected, Democrat Donna Edwards wins the contest for Maryland's 4th Congressional District seat left vacant by Albert Wynn on June 19th, then the number of Total Delegates will become 4051 and the new "magic number" will become 2026.

1627

As a result of the Michigan/Florida loss of all delegates, the total and unchanging number of pledged delegates available in this contest is 3253. 1627 represents a majority of those pledged delegates, and is recognized as the metric by which a winner of the pledged delegate count can be named.

This number is important because many automatic delegates have sought to link their support for a candidate to the "will of the people" argument associated with the pledged delegate count earned throughout the elections in each state, territory and special jurisdiction.

Obama currently has 1610 pledged delegates, including the eight Edwards' delegates (6 from S.C., 1 from Iowa, 1 from N.H) that have vowed to switch allegiances and the lone Clinton delegate from Maryland who has said he will switch to Obama as well. The Obama Campaign claims this total of 1610 as well.

By my count, Obama is only 17 pledged delegates away from gaining this magic number. There are 103 pledged delegates at stake on May 20th, so that is the date on which he will cross that threshold and possibly trigger superdelegates moving to him based on this metric.

What about Michigan and Florida?

Let's assume Michigan and Florida were seated fully. This would change both magic numbers.

Florida had 210 total delegates--185 pledged, 22 automatic and 3 add-on

Michigan had 156 total delegates -- 128 pledged, 26 automatic and 2 add-on

The new number of Total Delegates would become 4416 after adding in the 366 total delegates from Michigan and Florida.

The new "magic number" to clinch the nomination would then become 2208.5.

The new number of Pledged Delegates would become 3566 after adding in the 313 pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida.

The new "magic number" to clinch the majority of pledged delegates would then become 1783.5.

1783.5 to Clinch the "new" Pledged Delegate Majority

From where things stand now, Obama would need to come up with 173.5 pledged delegates to capture the pledged delegate "magic number" and 206 total delegates to capture the "magic number" needed to win the nomination.

With 189 delegates left in the remaining contests, if Obama were to capture 90 of those 189 delegates--a conservative measure of 47.6%--then he would have 1700 total before counting Michigan and Florida, and he would need 83.5 pledged delegates of the 366 available from Michigan/Florida.

According to the actual invalidated votes in those states, Obama received zero pledged delegates in Michigan and 72 pledged delegates in Florida. This total would leave him needing 11.5 delegates from any compromise position regarding these states to give him his majority, if he only gained 90 of 189 from the remaining contests.

However, with the recent endorsement of Obama by Edwards, it is highly likely the the remainder of the 11 pledged delegates won by Edwards (3 from NH, 2 from SC and 6 from Iowa) would go to Obama.

Also, Edwards would be credited with 13 pledged delegates from Florida if that delegation was seated based on the primary vote. These 13 would also put Obama over the "magic number" needed to clinch this important metric.

2208.5 to "Clinch" the Nomination

Regarding the second "magic number" to clinch the nomination--2208.5--let's add up the delegates Obama should be able to get and then see how the remaining automatic delegates need to break in order to give him the nomination.

Obama is at 1902.5 total delegates, leaving him 306 total delegates short of the nomination by this new metric.

Let's add the following:

90 pledged delegates from the remaining states
24 pledged Edwards delegates from New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Florida
3 automatic delegates already gained from Michigan
3 automatic delegates already gained from Florida
1 add-on delegate already gained from Florida
72 pledged delegates already gained from Florida
30 expected add-on delegates from states in which Obama was victorious

This gives Obama another 223 total delegates to add to his current total, bringing him up to 2125.5. This leaves him 83 total delegates short of the new metric, meaning that of the remaining 209 automatic delegates and 5 add-on delegates. 83 of 214 would constitute a 38.8% share of these delegates, in the worst case scenario.

The Reality

Keep in mind the proposal above does not include any gains of pledged delegates from the Michigan primary. This type of result is simply not a politically viable result for the Obama campaign.

There is a strong possibility, now that Edwards has endorsed Obama, that Obama can now fully claim the 55 pledged delegates for "Uncommitted" in Michigan, which then brings him 28 automatic delegates short of the finish line if Michigan and Florida are seated fully. That only represents 13% of the automatic delegates that would be left, and he may cross that line by the end of next week.

Somewhere in between 2025(.5) and 2208.5 will be the new finish line number, pending the results of the DNC meetings. The lower the number is, the more favorable the contest is for Senator Obama.

Obama Enjoys 4-Delegate Swing from NC + DELEGATE UPDATE

2008-05-16T14:17:00.000-07:00

Originally it was reported that Senator Obama netted 15 pledged delegates (65-50) from North Carolina after the May 6th primary.

NBC News has revised that total, noting that the actual margin was 67-48 in favor of Obama. This shift represents a +2 gain for Obama and a -2 loss for Clinton, giving Obama a 4-delegate shift and a new number of pledged delegates.

The new NBC total of pledged delegates for Obama and Clinton is 1601 -- 1445.

I have added the seven pledged Edwards delegates that have declared their support for Obama since Edwards' endorsement of Obama, so my total is 1608 -- 1445, for a lead of 163 pledged delegates.

Obama is 19 pledged delegates away from the 1627 magic number for a final pledged delegate majority.

New delegate standings from NBC (including the 7 Edwards delegates):

PLEDGED DELEGATES: (3053/3253 Gained = 93.9%)

Obama
1608
(49.4%)

Clinton
1445
(44.4%)

ADD-ON DELEGATES: (28/76 Gained = 36.8%)

Obama
17
(22.4%)

Clinton
11
(14.5%)

AUTOMATIC DELEGATES: (541/719 Gained = 75.2%)

Obama
275.5
(38.3%)

Clinton
265.5
(36.9%)

REMAINING DELEGATES: (414/4048 total = 10.2%)

Pledged
188
(5.8%)

Add-On
48
(63.2%)

Automatic
178
(24.8%)

TOTAL DELEGATES: (2025 needed to win nomination)

OBAMA
1900.5
(93.9%)

CLINTON
1721.5
(85.0%)

Pete Stark (CA) Endorses Obama

2008-05-16T08:02:00.001-07:00

Despite his Congressional District going solidly for Senator Clinton, California Congressman Pete Stark has decided to endorse Senator Obama. Congressman Stark spoke out about the need to unify the Democratic Party in preparation for the general election fight with John McCain and the Republican Party.

Obama, Clinton Will Make Gains with Add-On Delegates this Weekend

2008-05-15T11:19:00.001-07:00

Eight add-on delegates are schedule to be named this weekend (May 17-18) and Senator Obama should pick up four and could pick up five of them.

On Saturday, Colorado, Kansas and Nevada will select their lone add-on delegate, while California will announce its five add-on delegates on Sunday.

As Demconwatch notes here, Colorado's add-on delegate will be Federico Pena, who is open about his support for Senator Obama. The Denver Post noted that Pena's competitor for the position, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, decided to withdraw his name from the ballot for the add-on position. Obama won the state handily and it was likely that his large majority of supporters would have voted for Pena regardless of the DNC's host city having its uncommitted Mayor on the ballot.

Kansas went heavily for Obama as well, but there is no news about the likelihood of the add-on declaring for either candidate.

Nevada will be an interesting test as Clinton won the popular vote of the caucuses there but Obama won the most delegates. No word on how this one will turn out.

California is assured of giving Obama two add-ons and Clinton three add-ons, as declared by California State Chair Art Torres in this article. As noted, "Torres has come up with a diplomatic way to select his five delegates. He said he plans to award them in proportion to the vote in California's Democratic primary. Clinton received about 52 percent of the vote, so she gets three; Obama got 43 percent of the vote, so he gets two."

Obama is assured of three add-on delegates from Colorado and California, and is likely to win the Kansas add-on as a result of his blowout 74% - 26% victory on Super Tuesday. Clinton is assured of three add-on delegates and may be favored in Nevada.

More Superdelegates for Obama

2008-05-15T10:54:00.000-07:00

Two high profile Jewish Congressmen from California have declared their support for Senator Obama today. Congressmen Henry Waxman and Howard Berman, both of Los Angeles, have announced that they are supporting the candidacy of Barack Obama.

Beyond the shot of support to Senator Obama from highly-regarded political leaders in the Jewish community, these endorsements also give Obama the backing of two highly-ranked Committee Chairmen, as Waxman chairs the House Oversight Committee and Berman chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Also, Obama picked up the endorsement of Congressman Jim McDermott, who represents the Seattle area of Washington. McDermott becomes Obama's fifth superdelegate from the state of Washington, tying Senator Clinton's support in the state.

Finally, Obama also won the support of Washington DC superdelegate and Communications Workers for America President Larry Cohen. Talkingpointsmemo notes that "this is also Obama's second labor endorsement today, having picked up the backing of the steelworkers' union this morning -- suggesting that John Edwards' endorsement of Obama yesterday is hastening the coalescing of institutional support behind the Illinois Senator".

These four automatic delegates bring Obama's total up to 274.5, a nine automatic delegate lead over Clinton. Overall, Obama leads Clinton 1897.5 to 1723.5 in total delegates.

The Edwards Primary Begins

2008-05-15T10:20:00.000-07:00

Earlier, I wrote that the effect of John Edwards' endorsement of Senator Obama could in fact create a full swing of the 19 pledged delegates earned by Edwards during the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. These 19 delegates would constitute a victory equal to that of the combined delegate victories that Senator Clinton won in Ohio (7) and West Virginia (12).

Signs of movement among these pledged delegates to Obama are already taking place.

New Hampshire: Four Edwards' Delegates

A New Hampshire pledged delegate won by Edwards has declared his support for Obama. Josh Denton, a 26-year-old Iraq war veteran, is one of Edwards' four pledged delegates from the Granite State. The other three Edwards' delegates have not indicated that they will follow suit anytime soon.

With the pickup of Denton, Obama is officially the delegate winner of New Hampshire, breaking the previous 9-9-4 tie with Clinton and victory over Edwards as a result of that contest.

South Carolina: Eight Edwards Delegates

Of the eight pledged delegates that Edwards won in South Carolina, there is now a report that six of them will back Senator Obama. CNN is also reporting this, and provided the list of names of the Edwards' delegates moving to Obama:

Daniel Boan
Christine Brennan-Bond
Robert Groce
Susan Smith
Mike Evatt
Lauren Bilton

Alternate Edwards' delegate and Edwards' South Carolina Campaign Chair John Moylan also indicated that the other two pledged delegates are also likely to follow Edwards' lead in supporting Senator Obama

Iowa: Four Confirmed and Three Expected Edwards Delegates

So far, no word yet on any Iowa pledged delegates for Edwards making any switches. Edwards has four pledged delegates guaranteed and another three that were expected to go to him once Iowa confirms all of its delegates in June. This article gives a sense of what is happening in Iowa and how there will probably be movement at some point by these delegates to Obama or to Clinton.

CONCLUSION:

The Obama and Clinton campaigns have had their eyes on these stranded delegates for awhile, with Clinton's camp contacting Edwards' delegates in Iowa and Obama contacting Edwards' delegates in South Carolina.

So far, these articles confirm a movement of seven Edwards' delegates into the Obama column, with possibly more to come.

Obama's pledged delegate total has increased to 1606, just 21 pledged delegates short of the magic number of 1627 needed to claim a victory in the pledged delegate count.

Obama Endorsed by Michigan Superdelegate Ficano

2008-05-14T16:38:00.001-07:00

Although the endorsement doesn't change any of the current vote totals because of the penalty on Michigan delegates, this announcement still gives Obama some momentum during his high-profile trip to Michigan.

Gaining traction in Michigan will be very helpful for Obama as it raises the possibility of seating the Michigan delegation as more of that state's superdelegates endorse him, and also the implication that Obama can win Michigan if he campaigns there.

Bob Ficano is the Wayne County Executive.

Another Superdelegate for Obama

2008-05-14T16:31:00.000-07:00

This one's from Wisconsin. According to Ben Smith, Lena Taylor is a DNC superdelegate and a State Senator.

Edwards to Endorse Obama

2008-05-14T14:34:00.000-07:00

As mused in the prior post, it is now being confirmed by NBC News that John Edwards indeed will endorse Senator Barack Obama.

While Edwards does not have superdelegate status, he does control his 18 (or is it 19?) pledged delegates to some degree and he also will be very persuasive in attracting more superdelegates to coalesce around Senator Obama.

The timing of the announcement strives for maximum effect. The day after being trounced in West Virginia by what is considered John Edwards' mealticket constituency, an Edwards endorsement will help Obama show he can bridge the cultural divide and gain the support of the hero of the middle-class, blue-collar "white" American vote.

Edwards gained 7% of the vote in West Virginia despite not even campaigning for months.

Major Endorsement to Be Announced by Obama Campaign Tonight

2008-05-14T13:46:00.000-07:00

Saw across the blogosphere that there is a major endorsement to be unveiled tonight at 6:30 pm EST by the Obama Campaign.

Some are speculating that it is John Edwards. If that's the case, it would be an example where a non-superdelegate endorsement actually impacts the election in a meaningful way.

I wrote earlier here about the "Edwards Primary", as first described on Mr. Super in which Edwards by dropping out of the race (instead of suspending it, as he did) could effectively move those 19 pledged delegates he's won in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina over to Obama. This type of 19-delegate swing would be bigger than Clinton's net gain in Indiana and West Virginia combined.

Others have speculated that it's Al Gore or someone of that magnitude. Still others are reading into the cryptic announcement that perhaps it's a major block of superdelegates set to endorse, not just one endorsement. There were hints of a major block of North Carolina superdelegate endorsements earlier in the campaign.

It will be interesting to see if this endorsement has more of a direct or indirect impact on the delegate race between Senators Obama and Clinton.

OK Super Gives Obama the OK

2008-05-14T13:41:00.000-07:00

According to Ben Smith, Obama has picked up yet another superdelegate today.

This time it's DNC superdelegate Mike Morgan, who serves as the State Senate's President pro Tem.

Clinton Gains an Add-On from Tennessee

2008-05-14T10:51:00.000-07:00

Vicki Harwell, who was named as an Add-On Delegate from Tennessee back on March 15th, has officially endorsed Clinton today.

Harwell cited Clinton's strong performance in West Virginia as one reason why she has decided to back the Former First Lady.

How Clinton won Indiana by 18,000 Votes but Still Netted Four Pledged Delegates

2008-05-14T09:47:00.000-07:00

With a scant 17,700 margin of victory in Indiana for Senator Clinton, it seems intuitively that she would tie Senator Obama 36-36 in the allocation of the state's 72 pledged delegates given the closeness of a race that was decided within 2%.

However, Clinton won the state's pledged delegates by a 38-34 margin, and the analysis of how this happens helps provide an insight into how pledged delegates are gained in the Democratic primary process.

Indiana's 72 pledged delegates were divided into 11 separate contests: Pledged delegates won in each of Indiana's nine congressional districts, pledged at-large delegates determined by statewide results, and pledged Party Leader/Elected Officials (PLEOs) determined by statewide results.

Congressional Districts

47 of the 72 pledged delegates were awarded through each of Indiana's nine Congressional Districts.

The odd number of pledged delegates available through this part of the contest ensured that one candidate would be assured of a net pick-up through this phase.

Each Congressional District was awarded pledged delegates based on factors such as registered Democrats and turnout in prior Presidential and State elections. Five Districts had 6 delegates, three had 4 delegates and one had 5 delegates:

CD1: 6
CD2: 6
CD3: 4
CD4: 4
CD5: 4
CD6: 5
CD7: 6
CD8: 6
CD9: 6

Under the Democratic Primary proportional allocation rules, the number of delegates won per Congressional District (or whatever district used) is based on two factors: share of vote and threshold.

The first factor, share of vote, simply reflects the percent of the vote that each candidate receives.

The second factor, threshold, is different for districts with different numbers of delegates to offer.

Six-Delegate Districts

For example, in the districts with 6 pledged delegates, a 3-3 split is guaranteed if the winner's share of the vote does not exceed 58.5% in the district.

If the winner gains less than 58.5%, then that winner splits the delegates 3-3 with the loser.
If the winner gains between 58.5% and 75%, then that winner gets 4 of the 6 pledged delegates. (4-2 split)
If the winner gains between 75% and 85%, then the winner gets 5 of the 6 pledged delegates. (5-1 split)
If the winner gains over 85%, then that means the loser did not reach viability in the district, and all 6 pledged delegates go to the winner. (6-0 split)

As you can see, winning a district with six delegates by a 55% to 45% margin nets zero delegates, while winning by a 59% to 41% margin nets two delegates. Reaching the threshold then becomes crucially important.

Indiana had five districts with 6 pledged delegates at stake. The results are below:

CD1: Obama 52.7% = 3-3 split
CD2: Clinton 50.9% = 3-3 split
CD7: Obama 70.0% = 4-2 win for Obama
CD8: Clinton 59.4% = 4-2 win for Clinton
CD9: Clinton 63.4% = 4-2 win for Clinton

In these five districts with 765,167 votes cast, Obama won 380,622 votes (49.7% ) and Clinton won 384,505 votes (50.3%), yet Clinton netted 16 of 30 pledged delegates simply because she squeezed past the 58.5% threshold in two districts while Obama's strong performance in CD7 wasn't enough to get him past the next hurdle, the 75% threshold, to capitalize on that margin of victory.

If Obama was able to carry 75% of CD7's district, he would have won 5 of 6 of that district's pledged delegates and this four-delegate margin would have erased Clinton's double two-delegate margin in CD8 and CD9.

Similarly, if Clinton had gained 1% less of the vote in CD8, she would not have crossed the 58.5% threshold there and she would have split those delegates 3-3 with Obama, also creating a tie among these five districts.

Five-Delegate Districts

Only one district in Indiana had an odd number of delegates, and that was CD6 with five pledged delegates. Obviously a win in this district means the candidate gets at least a 3-2 split. Clinton carried 58.4% of the district.

For Clinton to have gained a 4-1 split in this district, she would have needed 70% of the vote, a much higher threshold than the 58.5% threshold for six-delegate districts to gain the extra margin. So, anywhere between a 50% and 70% win for a candidate results in a one-delegate margin of victory. If a candidate is close to that 70% share of the vote, then it makes sense to pour more resources into turnout to cross the threshold, while it would not make sense to do that if the candidate was at 58%.

A 4-1 split here with a 70%+ share of the vote would yield a three-delegate gain. Interestingly, Obama's 70%+ win in CD7 (with six delegates) only netted him two delegates, because of the difference in thresholds between districts of different delegate numbers.

Four-Delegate Districts

The remaining three districts in Indiana were four-delegate districts, with their own thresholds for delegate allocation.

The thresholds here are different than in those listed above. The threshold for a candidate to reach in order to cause a 3-1 split in delegates is 62.5% of the vote. Anywhere between 50% and 62.5% yields a 2-2 split.

To capture all 4 delegates, a candidate would have to win by 85%+ in order to make the opponent non-viable in the district.

Here were the results:

CD3: Obama 52.4% (2-2 split)
CD4: Clinton 50.7% (2-2 split)
CD5: Obama 51.8% (2-2 split)

So, in these three districts, the results were a wash, despite Obama outgaining Clinton by 188,222 - 179,907.

District Conclusions

Clinton outgained Obama by 3,883 votes in the five districts with six delegates each, and because of the way the thresholds worked in those districts, she was able to net two more delegates than Obama from those five districts.

Obama outgained Clinton by 8,315 votes in the three districts with four delegates each, but because of the way these thresholds worked, he could not net any delegates over his opponent.

Obama also had the bad luck of losing in a district that had an odd number of delegates, which gave Clinton an automatic net delegate from that district. If CD6 was a four-delegate district and CD5 was a five-delegate district, then Obama would have lost 24-23 in these districts. Instead, Clinton ended up with a 25-22 advantage here for a three delegate margin.

CLINTON 25 -- OBAMA 22

Pledged At-Large Delegates:

16 pledged delegates in Indiana were of the at-large variety, which depended upon the final tally of the statewide vote in the allocation of these delegates.

Obama and Clinton both gained 8 delegates from this pool, as a result of the even number of delegates at hand and the close race.

CLINTON 8 -- OBAMA 8

Pledged PLEOs (Party Leader/Elected Official) Delegates:

Nine of the state's pledged delegates were allocated through this category, ensuring the winner of the state with at least a 5-4 advantage.

As a result of the close race, this slim margin of one-delegate remained the final result of this category of pledged delegates.

CLINTON 5 -- OBAMA 4

FINAL RESULTS:

72 Pledged Delegates at stake

CLINTON 38 -- OBAMA 34

CLINTON gains 25 District, 8 At-Large and 5 PLEO pledged delegates.
OBAMA gains 22 District, 8 At-Large and 4 PLEO pledged delegates.

Interestingly enough, if Obama had been able to keep Clinton under 58.5% in CD8 and CD9 while having the fortune of having the only odd-numbered delegate district be in his column, Obama would have won this delegate contest by a 37-35 margin.

Obama needed 2,716 more votes (or 3,809 less votes for Clinton) in CD8 and 12,474 more votes (or 17, 584 less votes for Clinton) in CD9 to force a tie in the pledged delegate race.

There are contests with each state contest, and understanding how the delegates break out helps to eliminate some of the confusion involved in how delegates are actually allocated.

Obama Picks up 2.5 More Supers after WV Loss

2008-05-14T09:09:00.000-07:00

Senator Obama has now picked up the endorsement of an Indiana congressman in consecutive days, this time with Pete Visclosky making his announcement to endorse the Illinois Senator.

Visclosky represents the northwest portion of Indiana, which is within the Chicago media market and neighbors Senator Obama's home state. Visclosky's congressional district, which includes populous Lake County, suburban Porter County and more rural Benton, Jasper and Newton Counties, went for Obama by a 90,511 - 81,218, even though Obama only won Lake County.

This endorsement follows that of Congressman Joe Donnelly, of the adjacent 2nd Congressional District which contains South Bend. Surprisingly, Donnelly endorsed Obama despite his district leaning toward Clinton by a 72,554 - 69,747 result.

Joining Visclosky as a new Obama endorser are Lauren Wolfe and Awais Khaleel, the President and Vice-President of College Democrats of America, and superdelegates from Michigan and Wisconsin (respectively) representing the College Democrats of America. Wolfe and Khaleel's endorsement of Obama follows that of Crystal Strait, who is a California superdelegate representing the Young Democrats of America for the DNC.

As part of an online contest that would help determine their endorsements, CDA vice-president Khaleel and CDA President Lauren Wolfe received thousands of emails, facebook messages and youtube home videos describing the support of college-age democrats from across the country for their candidate of choice. Not surprisingly, Senator Obama was the clear favorite of the youth vote.

Wolfe's endorsement does not officially count toward the Obama superdelegate total, as she is considered part of Michigan's unpledged delegate total. Khaleel, on the other hand, adds to Obama's superdelegate lead with his endorsement.

Finally, Obama picked up a half-delegate when Democrats Abroad Chair Christine Schon Marques annoucned her support for the Illinois Senator.

Looks Like a 64%-31% Victory for Clinton

2008-05-13T17:24:00.000-07:00

If the exit polls can be extrapolated by any means, it looks like Clinton will pull out a 33% margin of victory over Obama today in West Virginia.

If these numbers hold, then Clinton should be able to garner 4 of the 6 pledged delegates in each of West Virginia's three Congressional Districts. That would give her 12 of 18 from those districts plus a probable 7 of 10 pledged at-large/LEO delegates as well, for a 19-9 pledged delegate victory over Obama.

If Obama is able to keep Clinton under 58.5% in one of the three Congressional Districts, that would mean he would probably end up down 18-10 in the pledged delegate count after today for W.V.

According to the exit polls, Clinton is nowhere near the 75% of the vote she'd need in each Congressional District to pull off a 5-1 split in the three districts each.

If somehow Obama were to hold Clinton to a 58% -- 40% type of victory, and Clinton could not clear 58.5% in each of the three Congressional Districts, then you would see a damaging 9-9 split among pledged delegates from the districts, and with only a probable 6-4 split of the pledged at-large/LEO delegates, that would only yield a 15-13 pledged delegate result for the Clinton campaign.

UPDATE: CLINTON IS BEING CREDITED WITH A 67% - 26% VICTORY OVER OBAMA, A 51% MARGIN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS BREAKSDOWN IN TERMS OF DELEGATES.

Pre-West Virginia Delegate Review

2008-05-13T16:40:00.000-07:00

News outlets today reported two stories that alter the pledged delegate counts for both candidates.

First, the final pledged delegate to be allocated from North Carolina was awarded to Senator Obama, giving him a 65 to 50 edge in that state, and a net +11 pledged delegate lead from both contests last week.

Second, a Clinton pledged delegate from Maryland confirmed that he would be voting for Obama at the Convention, effectively taking a pledged delegate away from Clinton while adding one to Obama's total. Prince George's County Executive Jack Johnson used to be an Obama supporter and then switched to Clinton and now has switched back to Obama.

This news, in addition to the three new automatic delegates and one new add-on delegate for Obama, brings the race to this point:

Pledged Delegates: Obama 1592 -- Clinton 1425
Automatic Delegates: Obama 266 -- Clinton 265.5
Add-On Delegates: Obama 17 -- Clinton 10

TOTAL DELEGATES: OBAMA 1875 -- CLINTON 1700.5

Four More Supers Declare for Obama

2008-05-13T16:04:00.000-07:00

Another day sees another quartet of superdelegates that has endorsed Senator Obama.

Congressman Joe Donnelly of Indiana announced his support for Obama today, citing Obama's ability to effect bipartisanship and unity in the country.

Also jumping on board with the Obama campaign is Louisiana Add-On Delegate C. Ray Nagin, Mayor of New Orleans.

Washington DC Party Chair Anita Bonds also made her preference known, choosing Obama.

Finally, Roy Romer, former Colorado Governor and Democratic National Committee Chairman, endorsed Obama and called for the party to rally around the Illinois Senator as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

How Many Delegates Can Clinton Win Tomorrow?

2008-05-12T15:48:00.000-07:00

Current polls have Clinton expected to win West Virginia by a huge margin, perhaps by 30% to 40% statewide.

West Virginia has 28 pledged delegates up for grabs, and the Clinton campaign is hoping a blowout victory can help close the pledged delegate gap and make their case to the superdelegates even stronger.

But how will the West Virginia delegates be allocated?

According to Green Papers, 18 of the 28 pledged delegates will be awarded on a district level, seven will be awarded based on statewide performance as At-Large Pledged Delegates and three more will be assigned Pledged LEOs.

The 18 pledged delegates assigned by district will be broken up into six pledged delelgates for each of the state's three congressional districts.

This allocation of a large, even number of delegates per district contest is a negative feature for the Clinton campaign.

In Texas, which had several districts with six or more delegates, the threshold required to capture a large majority of in-district delegates is much higher than in a district with only four delegates, for example.

According to the Texas Primary Delegate Calculator, this is what happens:

For a candidate to win all six delegates, the opponent must fail to clear the 15% viability threshold in the district. Obama will certainly carry this low bar of viability.

To win 5-1, a candidate must win by a 75% to 50% margin. There are other nuances when there are more than two candidates, but for this contest between Clinton and Obama, Clinton must capture 3/4 of the votes in a congressional district to win a 5-1 victory in pledged delegates. Again, Obama may be in a bit of danger of not reaching this 25% threshold, but most likely he will clear it in each district.

A 4-2 victory would mean that Senator Clinton would have to take in between 58.5% and 75% of the vote in the district. This is the most likely scenario to occur for each of the three districts, which means that Clinton would carry 12 of 18 pledged delegates allocated by district.

It might be possible, though for Obama to keep Clinton under 58.5% in at least one district, which would force a 3-3 split of the delegates. If that were to happen in just one district, the final outcome of the district-level pledged delegates would be 11-7, only a four delegate advantage for Clinton.

Throw in a 7-3 split at most for the at-large delegates, and perhaps even a 6-4 split if Obama does a bit better than current polling, and you could see in the best case scenario for Obama a 17-11 split of pledged delegates. Best case scenario for the Clinton campaign will be a 19-9 split, perhaps even a 20-8 split if a district goes over 75% for her.

Obama's lead in pledged delegates will most certainly stay above 150 after tomorrow, as it currently is 164.